So the electoral register could be out by 450,000?

LostinBlanch

According to Newstalk.

The final register, confirmed this week, has over 3.1 million voters entitled to cast their ballot on February 25th.

However a Newstalk investigation has found that even allowing for deaths and emigration it could be out by more than 450,000 voters.

This is something that I have had reservations about for years. I am concerned that fraud is widespread and that FF and other parties are benefitting from it.

Bertie Ahern is quoted in the Herald as having claimed that some houses in his constituency have more than 80 registered voters. All FF voters no doubt!
Hence there has been no action taken to fix this. Remedies like changing the law to allow a central register of PPS numbers to ensure that voters can only be on the register once are pooh poohed and ignored. There is a reason for this.

Put it this way, does anyone think that if Sinn Fein, PBP or other marginal groups were to get seats in this way that the register wouldn't be cleaned up pronto?

Given that FF are facing a wipeout at the election, I wonder how much of their votes are going to be fraudulent?

Is anyone else concerned at the state of the register? Does anyone have any other ideas on how to fix it?

gandalf

It is time as part of the political reform of this country to tie election rights to PPS numbers. That way you know that these people exist and you should have the up to date addresses for the majority of them.

I also believe that people who have been paying tax in this country for over 10 years (like my French wife) should have the right to vote in a General Election as their taxes and general conditions within society are decided by people who she has no part in electing.

Riskymove

LostinBlanch wrote: »

This is something that I have had reservations about for years. I am concerned that fraud is widespread and that FF and other parties are benefitting from it.

it is a problem, however...turnout is still around 60 odd % usually though, its not like more people vote than exist

I do think you are reading too much into the FF fraud conspiracy

enda1

gandalf wrote: »

It is time as part of the political reform of this country to tie election rights to PPS numbers. That way you know that these people exist and you should have the up to date addresses for the majority of them.

I also believe that people who have been paying tax in this country for over 10 years (like my French wife) should have the right to vote in a General Election as their taxes and general conditions within society are decided by people who she has no part in electing.

Why doesn't she become a citizen so? Then she can vote.

mikemac

All this was raised back in 2005 so Dick Roche ordered the councils to sort it out.

Door to door visits were done, I know my landlord got me a part time job doing them.
A huge effort was made back then.

Of course the register is never going to be perfect.
But you're reading a bit too much into if you think is some masterplan by one party to sweep an election

I agree with the PPS proposal.

Bertie Ahern has claimed there are houses in his constituency with more than 80 people registered to vote.All FF voters no doubt!

In that area like Drumcondra, lots of old houses are split into bedsits and flats, I lived in one!
You might have over 12 people in one house and over a decade you'd easily get over 80 people passing through.
It's not some FF grand plan. Of that 80, I'd estimate less then 15 still live in the area

gandalf

enda1 wrote: »

Why doesn't she become a citizen so? Then she can vote.

We have discussed it but it takes time and tbh we have higher priorities at the moment.

However my point is if someone has paid taxes for over ten years they should automatically get the right to vote as they have actively contributed to this country. People should not have to register to vote it should be taken from their PPS number and linked to the address that number is linked to.

For items like Presidential Elections or Constitutional Referendums you should be an Irish Citizen.

LostinBlanch

Risky

I'm not one for quoting myself but in this case I'll make an exception.

LostinBlanch wrote: »

Bertie Ahern is quoted in the Herald as having claimed that some houses in his constituency have more than 80 registered voters.

Bertie was one of the highest vote getters in the country, and was known for having his finger on the electoral pulse in his constituency. Yet he didn't seem to care about things like this, or if he did I can't remember hearing him say anything about it in public.

For me the blase way the electoral register is treated is an open invitation to fraud. It doesn't take that many extra votes to get someone in on the 4th or 5th count. Did FF (or any other parties) get any seats this way?

As far as I'm concerned any electoral fraud is too much. I have grave concerns about the electoral register and possibility for fraud.

gerrycollins

when we moved down the country a few years ago just before the last local elections a nice local councillor got us registered as we had been registered before in Dublin.

we got our voter cards and voted.

a few weeks ago my wife checked the register on line to find out that we are still registered to our Dublin address however when I rang the local council about it they had us registered and confirmed we would get our cards etc.

Confused or what. If the register cant be updated correctly after 2 years how can we trust the process?

Cookie_Monster

Vote early, vote often.

The Newstalk bulletins made it sound very vague as to how they worked it out. Previous census - predicted deaths - emigration = amount compared to register.

There are so many other factors need to correctly determine it.

Anyway electronic voting would cut this out, a record of passport number / driving licence number (since you need photo ID to vote anyway) once entered on any one machine would rule it out from any subsequent voting, but being the backward paddies we are they'll never have anything like that.

LostinBlanch

feelingstressed wrote: »

But you're reading a bit too much into if you think is some masterplan by one party to sweep an election

I'm not saying that it was engineered as a master plan but that FF and other parties take advantage of it. If the establishment parties saw that the likes of FF or PBP / ULA or whatever they're calling themselves these days were going to get seats at their expense then the register would be cleaned up quicksmart. That leads me to believe that they are happy with the situation as it exists.

I agree with the PPS proposal.

feelingstressed wrote: »

In that area like Drumcondra, lots of old houses are split into bedsits and flats, I lived in one!
You might have over 12 people in one house and over a decade you'd easily get over 80 people passing through.
It's not some FF grand plan. Of that 80, I'd estimate less then 15 still live in the area

FF with their backs to the wall, may have more reason to engage in such activity than ever. I am expressing my concerns about this.

I know a lot of those houses are split into bedsits and people move in and out. I am not concerned about the 15 who live their, I am concerned about the possibility of some of the other 65 votes going to one party or another.

What I would like to see is a study done maybe by some political science department looking at the number of people that voted in a number of consituencies say 10 or so. A mix of urban and rural. Then have this information cross referenced against census information, check the death registers of people in those constituencies. Run that through a stats program like SPSS and that will give a truer picture rather than just the voter turnout. If they wanted they could even compare the addresses of who voted in the election against death notices. I bet that will throw up some interesting information.

That's a PHD for someone right there!

Reilly616

gandalf wrote: »

I also believe that people who have been paying tax in this country for over 10 years (like my French wife) should have the right to vote in a General Election as their taxes and general conditions within society are decided by people who she has no part in electing.

Just wondering; why is your French wife, living here for 10 years, not an Irish citizen? Would she have to renounce her French citizenship under French law?

LostinBlanch

Cookie_Monster wrote: »

Anyway electronic voting would cut this out, a record of passport number / driving licence number (since you need photo ID to vote anyway) once entered on any one machine would rule it out from any subsequent voting, but being the backward paddies we are they'll never have anything like that.

Sounds like Bertie and his peann luaidh comments. Electronic voting as he tried to push through was a stroke pure and simple.

No written record of votes cast?? No open source system to ensure security?? No effective oversight of the system?? Another GW Bush scenario waiting to happen. Look at the criticisms of the sysytem he tried to push through on the sly.

gandalf

Reilly616 wrote: »

Just wondering; why is your French wife, living here for 10 years, not an Irish citizen? Would she have to renounce her French citizenship under French law?

She is living here for 12 years actually and she believes that yes she would have to renounce her French Citizenship. If we thought we would be staying in Ireland in the long term that would be no issue but we are think about moving to France in the medium term maybe in 5+ years time.

yahoo_moe

feelingstressed wrote: »

All this was raised back in 2005 so Dick Roche ordered the councils to sort it out.

Door to door visits were done, I know my landlord got me a part time job doing them.
A huge effort was made back then.

A huge effort was put in - but it could have been bigger. 1500 people were used to try and clean up the register, whereas 4840 people were involved in the '06 Census. They use PPS numbers in NI also, whereas they were ruled out here. Obviously you need another check other than PPS numbers but I'd imagine it would be a good starting point if the legislation was put through (apparently there are privacy issues involved).

I'd question two things here though:

(1) Newstalk's figure seems big given that Dick Roche estimated the discrepancy at 300,000 before the effort to clean up the register prior in '05/'06. That effort involved over half a million corrections/deletions.
(2) There's a huge amount of "FF and other parties" being mentioned here. I'm not a member of FF (obligatory Boards disclaimer) but unless you've evidence that any one party is gaining from this disproportionately, I'd start talking about it as a system problem rather than suggesting anything else. FF may win more 'last seats' than other parties by virtue of being the biggest party over the last few elections but likewise, Independents/smaller party candidates are themselves more likely to pick up those marginal seats than topping the poll. So I don't see how this can turn into a one- or two-party thing.

It's a problem with the system that needs to be fixed for everyone's sake.

enda1

gandalf wrote: »

She is living here for 12 years actually and she believes that yes she would have to renounce her French Citizenship. If we thought we would be staying in Ireland in the long term that would be no issue but we are think about moving to France in the medium term maybe in 5+ years time.

France has no problem with dual nationality. Why would she have to renounce??

Riskymove

LostinBlanch wrote: »

Risky

I'm not one for quoting myself but in this case I'll make an exception.

its an anecdote not any real evidence

Confused or what. If the register cant be updated correctly after 2 years how can we trust the process?

How do you think the LA is supposed to know you moved?




yes the issue is a concern but I cant see any actual evidence that there is multiple voting going on, its anecdotal at best

I personally believe that the numbers on the register are down to people moving or being registered more than once (or especially, dying and not being removed) and not having a system which can easily pick up on this

In my own scenario I get two polling cards, election leaflets etc at my own address with one slightly different than the other

I am sure such things are repeated across the country

gandalf

enda1 wrote: »

France has no problem with dual nationality. Why would she have to renounce??

That is her belief, as I said we have only talked about it in passing and haven't looked into it in detail. I know our son has dual nationality alright.

Ray Burkes Pension

The problem is that there is 35 electoral registers with no coordination or cooperation between the keepers of the 35 different registers.

Its not as if each register is a constituency neither. Galway county council contains 2 constituency, and Cavan county council a half a constituency.

Its an administration disaster and it cost the tax payers a fortune each year to mismanage.

A simple system would be to have one Electoral Register for the whole country tied to PPS. Your address would be updated whenever your PPS number address is changed.
And each year when the new PPS numbers are created for young people, they would be automatically assigned to a holding list, until they reach 18 when they are automatically added to the real list.

Reilly616

enda1 wrote: »

France has no problem with dual nationality. Why would she have to renounce??

The plot thickens...

Reilly616

gandalf wrote: »

That is her belief, as I said we have only talked about it in passing and haven't looked into it in detail. I know our son has dual nationality alright.

Ah, it might be worth looking into. Citizenship would get her a vote in the, probably rather important, referenda coming up.

Ray Burkes Pension

Something that hasnt been mentioned is the effect of the bloated Electoral Register has on the turnout percentages at the Election.

If Newstalk is right with that 450,000 figure, then a full turnout at the General Election would result in a 85% turnout percentage!

Laminations

Ray Burkes Pension wrote: »

Something that hasnt been mentioned is the effect of the bloated Electoral Register has on the turnout percentages at the Election.

If Newstalk is right with that 450,000 figure, then a full turnout at the General Election would result in a 85% turnout percentage!

Yep it means a reported 60% turnout would be closer to 70% in actuality (68.8%)