Gilmore - wrong strategy?

Dannyboy83

All the polls are saying that Martin outperformed Gilmore last night.
Even the breakingnews.ie poll, says that Enda Kenny outperformed him.
http://www.breakingnews.ie/

It looks like Enda has played this very well indeed, he has learned from past mistakes and clearly knows his strengths and weaknesses.
Gilmore on the other hand, has played straight into Martin's hands.

Would it not have been better to refuse to participate and lose 1%, rather than to participate and lose several percent?

I think Gilmore was being grossly optimistic if he imagined he could take on Michael Martin and win - this arguably being MM's greatest strength.

seamus

All coverage seems to be stating the very same thing - it was an impressive and robust debate where neither leader was annihilated by the other.

Many pundits have commented that the primary reason why Martin is considered to have "won" is because he was expected to perform at a level set by his predecessor. If Cowen had been sitting in Martin's seat last night, he'd have been crushed by Gilmore.
But Martin very abley and strongly exchanged debate with Gilmore last night to around the same level, so he's considered to have won because he came out looking good despite starting off from the disadvantaged position. At the end of the debate, Gilmore hadn't lost any credibility, but Martin had gained some. Gilmore though did seem tangibly caught off-guard by Martin's strength.

There doesn't seem to be any suggestion of a loss in popularity for Labour on the back of this, definitely not in the region of several % - neither leader was made to look stupid or made any serious gaffes and there was nothing in there to say Labour were let down by the debate. If anything though it will give FF some support from FFers who were unsure of voting FF again and from the undecided camps.

In terms of FG, there are suggestions that they have the upper hand now because they can prepare the next debates to counter Labour and FF's arguments from last night, but if Enda was sat in the middle last night he'd have been killed. And it's possible this will happen at the next debates, no matter how much FG plan.

Bottle_of_Smoke

No I don't believe for a second Kenny played this right.

Labour and Fine Gael are competing for voters who put FF in last time, many of whom will not even consider voting FF.

FG would have a much bigger share but people don't like Enda Kenny(I don't want to get into a debate, this shouldn't stop them voting FG but will) - now not showing up the general perception is he's a coward. So the ex-FF voters are thinking "right I'll vote labour because FG are cowardly"

I doubt most of the electorate even watched the debate, I haven't myself. Just by being there Gilmore has struck a blow at FG

Lockstep

The way I see it, Martin won by exceeding low expectations.

Both did very well; it was a genuinely good debate and I'm glad Kenny wasn't there as the two leaders performed very well going for each other.

Gilmore missed out on the chance to get knock out blows but he really seemed to be holding back. He was sitting straight and was calm whereas Martin slouched and kept interrupting.


In terms of presentation, it was a draw but Martin went in with noone expecting him to do well so he seemed comparatively better.


That said, nearly every left-winger I know is going on about how Gilmore was on fire whereas right-wingers are saying the reverse. Seeing as it was so close, both sides are claiming their side won.

RobbieTheRobber

For me no one won that debate last night except TV3 (on ratings).

It was a decidedly damp squib although im not sure what more i expected, it may be a case that I bought into the Tv3 hype.

Any persons making desicions about which way to vote on the basis of last nights debate would probably have been better decideding by flipping a coin. Perhaps the analysists may have swayed more although i despaired when i heard one of the idiots proclaim lets just look at the men not the policies. (it was the last i heard)

For those who need the Pageant format to decide political decisions perhaps they should just consider staying at home on the 25th, I hope for the next debate they ask each candidate to do their party piece perhaps a little dance followed by a speech on how they want to bring about world peace.

nesf

Lockstep wrote: »

That said, nearly every left-winger I know is going on about how Gilmore was on fire whereas right-wingers are saying the reverse. Seeing as it was so close, both sides are claiming their side won.

I think it comes down to whether you focus on the economic or social side of the debate. On the economic issue Gilmore was much weaker than he was on the latter half of the debate and you either had made your mind up about who won on the economic half or the social half.

Assuming you're not a party man, in which case your mind was made up before you went in.

Lockstep

Martin was also weak on economics. Accusing Gilmore of chopping and changing/being for high taxes, both of which were a case of 'Pot, Kettle, Black' which Gilmore called him out on.

Also, Martin came across terribly on the healthcare side of things. Brought up his reform of the Health Boards before Gilmore countered with the result of these reforms; the HSE.


Like I said, it was a very close debate. Anyone who thinks one side came across much better is someone who was never going to change their minds in the first place.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Mr.Micro

I find it incredible that Martin is deemed to have won the debate. He one of the architects of our economic collapse sat there last night constantly interrupting Gilmore and just arrogantly sat back to criticize all that Labour proposed, and he and FF brought nothing other than their appalling record to the table. Gilmore should have reduced him to nothing but chose a path of politeness and openness which Martin just exploited, a complete spoofer as if all that happened was nothing to do with him. At the next debate the other speakers should attack FF on all fronts and show them up for what they are.

Gilmore having pass muster with Martin after the latter's appalling record in office as if he would know a good policy?

Killer Pigeon

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

When the HSE was founded, an unnecessary layer of bureaucracy that has cost the taxpayer millions was introduced. These funds could instead be invested in a universal primary healthcare system. I'm no fan of the bully tactics used by some of the Unions yet I still support Labour even though they have a historical relation to them. Imagine if Labour (hypothetically) got an overall majority (which obviously isn't going to happen any time soon) then could introduce policies which would make Unions obsolete.

Killer Pigeon

Mr.Micro wrote: »

I find it incredible that Martin is deemed to have won the debate. He one of the architects of our economic collapse sat there last night constantly interrupting Gilmore and just arrogantly sat back to criticize all that Labour proposed, and he and FF brought nothing other than their appalling record to the table. Gilmore should have reduced him to nothing but chose a path of politeness and openness which Martin just exploited, a complete spoofer as if all that happened was nothing to do with him. At the next debate the other speakers should attack FF on all fronts and show them up for what they are.

Gilmore having pass muster with Martin after the latter's appalling record in office as if he would know a good policy?

In fairness Martin seems to be a better debater than Gilmore but that doesn't mean Martin and FF are better than Gilmore or Labour. TBH I was completely unfazed by the debate, it was just an "I'll show you mine if you show me yours" match.

nesf

Lockstep wrote: »

Martin was also weak on economics. Accusing Gilmore of chopping and changing/being for high taxes, both of which were a case of 'Pot, Kettle, Black' which Gilmore called him out on.

I thought Gilmore was weaker to be honest. His proposals to prolong the adjustment just don't make economic sense, all we'll achieve is increasing the debt burden we'll have to shoulder for a decade or more after we bring the budget back in line. Martin has less to prove here on the economic side since FF have already pushed through several budgets that have effectively ensured they're going to be massacred come election day. That they did that is a strong vote towards FF's willingness to take unpopular measures on this issue when needed, Labour need to convince us still that they're capable of this rather than selling more popular ideas which might not be in our best interest.

Lockstep wrote: »

Also, Martin came across terribly on the healthcare side of things. Brought up his reform of the Health Boards before Gilmore countered with the result of these reforms; the HSE.

Depends on how you view it. We've had improving health outcomes since the HSE was brought in, that's held up by independent surveys run by European groups. The problems with the HSE are more a product of FF's unwillingness to tackle the unions, which isn't exactly something Labour can call them up on (FG on the other hand can since they've a long history of arguing for a tougher line being taken with the unions).

The HSE is blamed with an awful lot but when you take a dispassionate view of it the HSE seems to actually have improved things since it was brought in, which is something that you'd never think from reading Irish based media. I've serious issues with the HSE and want to see strong reforms brought in on it but to argue that it's had solely negative outcomes for the Irish people is patently false.

Mr.Micro

Killer Pigeon wrote: »

In fairness Martin seems to be a better debater than Gilmore but that doesn't mean Martin and FF are better than Gilmore or Labour. TBH I was completely unfazed by the debate, it was just an "I'll show you mine if you show me yours" match.

TBH I came away trying to recall if Martin had put forward any real FF policies. It was like Gilmore was before the head teacher trying to put forward his proposals and Martin just sat back. It was not like a real debate as neither candidate was really pushed or really challenged more as you say Party political broadcasts. Gilmore needs to be tough the next time and not be awestruck.

Callan57

IMO Martin won only because the expectations of Gilmore's performance were higher & viewers felt he did not perform to his usual standard.

All in all I found the so called 'debate' tedious & staged - I had to force myself to watch it through to the end.
Would much prefer one of VB's robust interviews instead.

nesf

Callan57 wrote: »

IMO Martin won only because the expectations of Gilmore's performance were higher & viewers felt he did not perform to his usual standard.

All in all I found the so called 'debate' tedious & staged - I had to force myself to watch it through to the end.
Would much prefer one of VB's robust interviews instead.

I expected more to be honest from Gilmore. I hoped for a good proper left v right debate on the economy where even though I'd disagree with Gilmore I'd come out of it respecting his viewpoint. I think Rabbitte would have given us a better debate.

nesf

Pat Rabbitte's performance tonight on Prime Time on economic issues was exactly what Labour needed last night in the debate. It was strong, accurate, he spoke economic sense (I've an academic background in economics so yeah, I can tell) and it was informed by his leftist politics. Gilmore's performance was a pale comparison.

Worth watching when it goes up on RTE's site. O'Dea was abysmal, no idea why they decided to send him to represent FF he was very weak.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Rubik.

Martin's stated aimed is to poll around 25% in the election, his audience last night was the core FF voters who have ebbed away over the past year or so. Gilmore would have wanted to influence non-Labour voters. So I suppose it could be said that Martin won last, but I think the damage that has been done to the FF party over the past 2 years is just too great for 3 TV debates to have any real effect. And it is more than likely that a real world FF related event, scandal or crisis will occur over the next couple of weeks to nullify any Martin effect, that is, if any such effect exists.

Blowfish

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Actually it's worse than that. The health boards had 16,000 management and administrative staff in 2004. The HSE was formed in 2005 and by 2007, the number of administrative/management staff had actually increased by 15% to 18,421.

conorhal

If anybody had told me before the debate that the leader of the lamest of lame duck government parties would win the debate, I'd have laughed in their face.
Thinking rationally however, I should have seen it coming.
Gilmore has spent the last three years sitting on the fence, checking the weather vain to see which direction that the populist wind was blowing and then making glib non sequiturs and the kind of wild promises and statements that you can only get away with on the opposition bench, safe in the knowledge that you will never have to back your rhetoric up with action.

And then the election was called.

In a debate in which you are presenting yourself as the leader (cough) of the next government, the fence is a precarious perch from which you can be easily knocked off.
In such a debate, particularly this one where the voters are far more keenly interested and informed about the issues and economic principles at play, (God knows, three years ago, if you'd asked me what a subordinated bond holder was I'd have looked at you as if you were mad, today my 4 year old nephew could probably give you a decent explanation) you just can’t bluff the public with the same 'ol electoral spin. People want and expect leadership and hard facts, they are demanding answers and solutions and these are something that Gilmore showed himself unprepared to deliver.
During the debate he looked keenly aware that labor's policies had a whiff of 'the Empror's new clothes' about them.
Gilmore's real stratigic error is that he has not been preparing for government for the past three years, he's been spinning the crisis to maximize his vote. It's as if spending so long on the opposition benches that Labor has become an 'institutionalized opposition' oblivious to the realities of government and now he's unable to campaign with direction. "We're not FF" is no good reason to vote for sombody any more.

Tragedy

Blowfish wrote: »

Actually it's worse than that. The health boards had 16,000 management and administrative staff in 2004. The HSE was formed in 2005 and by 2007, the number of administrative/management staff had actually increased by 15% to 18,421.

Blowfish, some of that will be down to the HSE centralising services that each and every hospital has in the HSE instead.
I know there's been a big push on the last two years to reduce the HR departments in all the main hospitals and to instead centralise aspects of it in the HSE itself.
Even things like solicitors/barristers for Union issues are now being centralised in the HSE.
On paper it's a good idea. Whether it reduces staff numbers... *shrug*.

COUCH WARRIOR

Mr.Micro wrote: »

I find it incredible that Martin is deemed to have won the debate. He one of the architects of our economic collapse sat there last night constantly interrupting Gilmore and just arrogantly sat back to criticize all that Labour proposed, and he and FF brought nothing other than their appalling record to the table. Gilmore should have reduced him to nothing but chose a path of politeness and openness which Martin just exploited, a complete spoofer as if all that happened was nothing to do with him. At the next debate the other speakers should attack FF on all fronts and show them up for what they are.

Gilmore having pass muster with Martin after the latter's appalling record in office as if he would know a good policy?

The reason is in your post Gilmore couldn't reduce MM to nothing even though it should have been a cake walk. Just goes to show how pretty useless Gilmore is, I don't think politeness was the problem he did plenty of intrupting of his own:(