General Election 2011 - Dublin Mid-West

Sad Professor

I couldn't find another thread on this constituency.

I assume Tuffy is going to waltz in. Closely followed by Fitzgerald who almost got the fourth seat last time but lost on transfers. I suppose Keating will as well. He's well known and popular in Lucan, but may have lost a lot of support since joining Fine Gael.

So I suspect the battle is really for the fourth seat. Does Curran stand any chance? Does Gogarty? I suppose Dowds could get it from Tuffy's transfers, but Gino Kenny looks like he has a real shot at it. Him and his canvassers have been outside Superquinn for 3 weeks in a row. Connolly (Socialist Party) could split the the vote though.

Any thoughts/predictions?

EDIT:
Current TDs:

John Curran (FF)
Mary Harney (PD)
Paul Gogarty (GP)
Joanna Tuffy (Lab)

Candidates for GE:

Robert Connolly (Socialist Party/ULA)
John Curran (FF)
Robert Dowds (LAB)
Mick Finnegan (WP)
Frances Fitzgerald (FG)
Paul Gogarty (GP)
Derek Keating (FG)
Gino Kenny (PBP/SWP/ULA)
Eoin Ó Broin (SF)
Joanna Tuffy (Lab)

Its a joke of a constituency

4 seats, 10 candidates

most of the candidates are terrible
if you wanted an overall majority for either FG or Labour you dont have that option.

Sad Professor

Both parties are running more than enough candidates to win an overall majority. Running more candidates in each constituency would just split the vote.

As for the quality of the candidates, I agree. But I vote for the party/policy, not the candidate.

imme

Tuffy & Fitzgerald to be elected first. Followed some time later by Curran. Then a tussle between Keating, Gogarty and O'Broin for the last seat

steelcityblues

2 LAB, 1 FG (prob. Keating) and 1 FF I think!

Sad Professor

It disturbs me to think that people out here could vote Curran back in, but he got in on the first count last time, so I guess he has a very good chance of keeping his seat.

liamtech

I think its important for labour to get two seats here, or at the very least prevent Fine Gael from doing so - i think its unfortunate the amount of independents running as they are likely to dilute the Labour vote as opposed to the FG/FF - that's only my opinion folks

Sad Professor

There are no independents. All the running candidates in Dublin Mid-West are affiliated with a party. Although the Boards GE Poll incorrectly lists some of them as independents. Connolly is Socialist Party, and Finnegan is Workers Party.

Labour definitely stands to lose some votes to them, but they've no one but themselves to blame for that. Their working class credentials ain't what they used to be.

Pherekydes

Sad Professor wrote: »

It disturbs me to think that people out here could vote Curran back in, but he got in on the first count last time, so I guess he has a very good chance of keeping his seat.

He has no running mate to split the vote. FF had a 33% share last time out. Even though he's in trouble, I think he'll squeeze in. Tuffy or Fitz will top the poll, and LP or FG have an excellent chance of winning a second seat. I'm not strictly certain of where the candidates are based, but I think Fitz, Keating, Tuffy and Gogarty are Lucan-based, while Dowds and Curran are Clondalkin-based. If Dowds can gain enough first preferences to keep him ahead of some of the others then I think he'll gain enough transfers to win the seat.

If Curran sinks low enough on first prefs, he could lose out on transfers. It's a trend I expect to see nationwide: FF transfer-poison, LP transfer-friendly.

ArmaniJeanss

Can someone list the candidates and their parties, and who the sitting TDs are?
Makes it easier for us outsiders to read the thread.

Sad Professor

Yeah, sorry, I've added that info to the OP.

Pherekydes

Sitting TDs:

John Curran
Paul Gogarty
Mary Harney (retd)
Joanna Tuffy

Candidates:

Rob Connolly Socialist Party
Gino Kenny People Before Profit Alliance
Mick Finnegan Workers' Party
John Curran Fianna Fail
Robert Dowds Labour
Frances Fitzgerald Fine Gael
Paul Gogarty Green
Derek Keating Fine Gael
Eoin O Broin Sinn Fein
Joanna Tuffy Labour

selfobsessed

Bye bye Paul Gogarty , pity only handsome lad in the dail.

JimsAlterEgo

not sure gogarty is gone, he has a good local following. Curran will suffer, either he gets in on 1st count or he won't as won't get transfers

Sad Professor

It should also be mentioned that 4 independent candidates have announced since I started this thread:

Colm McGrath
Jim McHale
Michael Ryan
Niall Smith

Sad Professor

JimsAlterEgo wrote: »

Curran will suffer, either he gets in on 1st count or he won't as won't get transfers

Agreed. But since there's no chance of him getting in on the first count, he's a goner imo.

JimsAlterEgo

acording to Newstalk earlier Eamonn Dunphy is hosting a debate in Clondalkin, anyone know where and iff all candidates are attending.

sammyano

Joanna got good votes last under (Lab) but, I would like FF to take over this area - Couldn't see much that was done. I remember have a chat with Joanna before she was elected and after could'nt all of the thigns she promised within the area. So might change my boat this time around.

JimsAlterEgo

sammyano wrote: »

Joanna got good votes last under (Lab) but, I would like FF to take over this area - Couldn't see much that was done. I remember have a chat with Joanna before she was elected and after could'nt all of the thigns she promised within the area. So might change my boat this time around.

WHAT?

leahs

Sad Professor wrote: »

Agreed. But since there's no chance of him getting in on the first count, he's a goner imo.

last seat in dublin mid west is all to play for. Curran is a goner last seat is all down to transfers that he won't get. I have been out canvessing and support for gino kenny is great. People want a change and I have yet see the so called support for FG besides the media blowing them up. Gino's defo in for a shout and will benefit from other left cantidates transfers

JimsAlterEgo

calling this as
Tuffy
Fitzgerald
Keating
Gogarty/Curran/Kenny/OBroin - will be decided by transfers

leahs

JimsAlterEgo wrote: »

not sure gogarty is gone, he has a good local following. Curran will suffer, either he gets in on 1st count or he won't as won't get transfers

To be honest gogarty won't to well on transfers, I agree curran has to do well on 1st count or he's gone. I think last seat will be left one and its between eoin and gino. If it comes down to transfers gino might pull it off as SF don't have good history on transfers. SF is a party you either will or won't give a vote to. Dublin mid-west is defo interesting constiutency

Eureka_Bg

I think this is one of the constituencies that could hit the headlines by the time the count results start to emerge on Saturday and the shape of the new government starts to come into focus.

Tuffy should comfortably top the poll for Labour this time out

Frances Fitzgerald, the stronger of the two Fine Gael candidates is a safe bet to take the second seat after Tuffy.

This should leave the final two seats to be fought out among a number of candidates including Curran for Fianna Fail, O'Broin of Sinn Fein and Derek Keating of FG.



It may be the inter party rivalry between FF and SF that will decide the allocation of the final two seats. Fianna Fail voters may transfer to Keating to keep Sinn Fein out of the final seat, with SF supporters voting tactically and returning the "favour" by similarly transfering to Keating to keep Curran out.



So at the final count we could most likely see

Tuffy, Labour.
Fitzgerald, FG.
Curran, FF OR O'Broin, SF
Keating, FG.




Otherwise it may go Tuffy, Fitzgerald, Curran, O'Broin.

Mental Mickey

I really haven't a ****ing clue who to vote for in this constituency!!??

I posted in the main thread that the issues that I am looking at are(in no particular order):

1.Health.
2.Taxes
3.Disability(this covers a huge area for me).
4.Public Sector

I can't be a***d going through all the various party manifestos, so I don't know where I stand!?

emo72

im going with gino.

Idleater

Mental Mickey wrote: »

I really haven't a ****ing clue who to vote for in this constituency!!??

Mental Mickey wrote: »

I can't be a***d going through all the various party manifestos, so I don't know where I stand!?

:rolleyes: sorry, but if you have real concerns about policies you have to make some effort to inform yourself. Relying on the internet to condense the broad topics you highlighted into a 1-12 preference for you to transfer onto the ballot paper doesn't strike me as the best way to select TD's.

Mental Mickey

Idleater wrote: »

:rolleyes: sorry, but if you have real concerns about policies you have to make some effort to inform yourself. Relying on the internet to condense the broad topics you highlighted into a 1-12 preference for you to transfer onto the ballot paper doesn't strike me as the best way to select TD's.

I am undecided/confused because all I heard during the "debates" was shouting & squabbling and finger-pointing and not much else.

jimmycrackcorm

emo72 wrote: »

im going with gino.

Have you got an earring in your ear too?

gk5000

Idleater wrote: »

:rolleyes: sorry, but if you have real concerns about policies you have to make some effort to inform yourself. Relying on the internet to condense the broad topics you highlighted into a 1-12 preference for you to transfer onto the ballot paper doesn't strike me as the best way to select TD's.

Voted this morning, but it was 1-13, or even 1-14 I think. I went all the way.
FG 1&2, Lab 3&4 and a bit of a jumble after that.

emo72

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Have you got an earring in your ear too?

no.

Capt'n Midnight

Mental Mickey wrote: »

I really haven't a ****ing clue who to vote for in this constituency!!??

I posted in the main thread that the issues that I am looking at are(in no particular order):

1.Health.
2.Taxes
3.Disability(this covers a huge area for me).
4.Public Sector

I can't be a***d going through all the various party manifestos, so I don't know where I stand!?

Sad Professor wrote:

It should also be mentioned that 4 independent candidates have announced since I started this thread:

Colm McGrath - Ex Finnal Fail
Jim McHale
Michael Ryan
Niall Smith

McGrath is Ex-FF and after seeing something on politics.ie ...
http://www.irishecho.com.au/tag/colm-mcgrath

Four former Fianna Fail politicians and a Gibraltar-based businessman appeared in court over an alleged corrupt multimillion-euro land deal.

Former Senator Don Lydon, former councillors Sean Gilbride and Colm McGrath and now Independent Tony Fox appeared at an evening sitting of Dublin District Court.
...

The five were all alleged to have been part of a cash-for-votes scandal which led to more than 100 acres of prime land in south county Dublin being rezoned in the 1990s.

The charges follow a marathon investigation into the 53 million euro hike in land prices at Carrickmines.

...
McGrath, aged 54, from Swiftford, Saggart, Co Dublin was charged with taking money in June 1992 in his Clondalkin office to rezone the same land.

http://www.rte.ie/news/election2011/dublin-mid-west.html sparse info on them

in case you need to be reminded of the leaflets
https://irishelectionliterature.wordpress.com/tag/dublin-mid-west/

I was going to post one that mentioned carers , but looking at it again it was buried in a lot of other stuff.


Fitzgerald and Keating fighting for number 1's ( UK system is boring since there is no infighting )


nearly decided just need to distinguish the candidates a little more

I'm looking for any advice or scandal on...

Keating vs. Fizgerald - pro's and cons'
and for Tuffy and Dowd the same
do they toe the party line or have their own voice etc.
(for parish pump I guess it would be keating / tuffy - but if you live in a different parish ymmv, and besides it's a national election )

and the three independants
(the dodgy ex FFer is deffo getting a double digit number)

emo72

any news? how are we doing? has gino got a chance?

Sad Professor

emo72 wrote: »

any news? how are we doing? has gino got a chance?

Nope, Gino is gone, got 5-6 percent 1st preferences. Tuffy and Fitzgerald are definitely getting in. Last two seats are up for grabs between SF, LAB and FG. It depends how the transfers work out.

Here are the tallies:

Labour 31% fine gael 32% fianna fail 12.3 Sinn Fein 12.3 greens 4.1 others 11%

Capt'n Midnight

http://www.rte.ie/news/election2011/results/dublin-mid-west.html

Quota 8,545

RTEdublinMIDWEST: 3rd ct:
Tuffy 7533
Fitzgerald 7303
Keating 5945
Dowds 5661
obrion 5088
curran 5068
kenny 2513
Gogarty 1498
Connolly 634
Ryan 429
mcgrath elim
Sat Feb 26 16:39:01 via Twitter for iPhone

HellFireClub

Delighted that John Curran has been dispatched to hatch 45, had dealings with him recently and never met a more disconnected waffler in my life, great to see democracy and Karma being bedfelllows today...

Sad Professor

Curran - good riddance!

It'll be interesting to see where most of Kenny's transfers go, but it looks like Dowds and Keating will take the last two seats to me.

phasers

It seems like O'Broin could just squeak by on Gino's second prefs, I'm interested to see where they go.

Good riddance to Curran.

Capt'n Midnight

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0226/election_count_live_saturday.html

1657 Dublin Mid-West: Rob Connolly (SP), Michael Finnegan (WP), excluded after fifth count. Conor Ryan (Independent) excluded after fourth count.

Pherekydes

Gino Kenny and Paul Gogarty both gone now.

Six left for 4 seats.

I can't see the order changing a great deal. Looks like a 2+2.

Sad Professor

O'Broin did get a nice boost from Finnegan and Connolly's transfers though. Gogarty and Kenny have 4,600 votes up for grabs. It looks like Curran's transfers will decide it.

Sad Professor

O'Broin has just jumped over Keating and Dowds. It's very tight.

Capt'n Midnight

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0226/election_count_live_saturday.html

1801 Dublin Mid-West: Labour's Joan Tuffy has been elected and Fianna Fáil's John Curran have been excluded after the seventh count.

Capt'n Midnight

*TUFFY, Joanna (07) LAB 8948

FITZGERALD, Frances FG 7903

Ó BROIN, Eoin SF 6628
DOWDS, Robert LAB 6519
KEATING, Derek FG 6503

Very close - 125 votes between the last three
and there's over 5,000 votes to transfer


*CURRAN, John FF 5513

Capt'n Midnight

Changed again Quota 8,545 so 668 surplus votes

It's between Keating and Ó Broin

So looks like Keating



FITZGERALD, Frances (08) 9213
*TUFFY, Joanna (07) LAB 8948

DOWDS, Robert LAB 7934
KEATING, Derek FG 7244
Ó BROIN, Eoin SF 7120

godtabh

Keating is a turncoat.

How many parties has he been involved in over the years. He is just interested in the pension.

He has hedged his bets some many times to get elected. This time it worked for him

He switched to FG when he knew there would be an election FF couldnt win

emo72

godtabh wrote: »

Keating is a turncoat.

How many parties has he been involved in over the years. He is just interested in the pension.

He has hedged his bets some many times to get elected. This time it worked for him

He switched to FG when he knew there would be an election FF couldnt win

seen him standing at the side of the road (beside woodies) at 8pm on polling day i mean it wasnt a place you could pull in and talk to him. just wanting his face visible on the side of the road. crazy.

doolox

There are precious few places to pull in and park in Lucan.
He hadn't much choice.
Come to think of it I had no callers to my house for this election except the Green guys election workers and some FG workers.

The guy

godtabh wrote: »

Keating is a turncoat.

How many parties has he been involved in over the years. He is just interested in the pension.

He has hedged his bets some many times to get elected. This time it worked for him

He switched to FG when he knew there would be an election FF couldnt win

He changed his party stance(he went independent once) four times.
:rolleyes:

Also he was on RTE news a few days ago desperately grappling Enda Kenny to appear on camera.