Millward Brown/Lansdowne poll 01/02/11

Sully

New poll results out shows a drop for Fine Gael in support.

FF 16% nc, FG 30% -4%, Lab 24% nc, Grn 1% nc, SF 13% +3%, Ind 15% nc

Strange results!

Lawrence1895

Strange? Why? 13% for Sinn Fein? Well, I'm not supersticious

Sulmac

The last poll from that company was only two days ago. Very strange results, indeed.

Does anyone know when the next Ipsos MRBI-Irish Times poll is out? I presume there'll be one in the next week or two with the election campaign now under way.

gandalf

Is there not a Red C poll out tomorrow as well. Personally I would wait until the details of that are released.

Laminations

Sully wrote: »

New poll results out shows a drop for Fine Gael in support.

FF 16% nc, FG 30% -4%, Lab 24% nc, Grn 1% nc, SF 13% +3%, Ind 15% nc

Strange results!

Strange indeed, where'd the last 1% go?

FG -4%, SF +3% and no change for the rest. My left ball could perform more reliable surveys. Wait for the RedC I shall.

Sulmac

Laminations wrote: »

Strange indeed, where'd the last 1% go?

FG -4%, SF +3% and no change for the rest. My left ball could perform more reliable surveys. Wait for the RedC I shall.

I presume that the one per cent lost is due to rounding.

Sully

Red C due in the morning on Pat Kenny, another Paddy Power poll

meditraitor

Strange? Why?...... maybe the one 2 days ago was strange.

These polls are fun but not to be taken serious, apart from the 30%(regular voters) of FG and FF family voters that will come out and vote the rest of us are still undecided.

Sully

meditraitor wrote: »

Strange? Why?...... maybe the one 2 days ago was strange.

These polls are fun but not to be taken serious, apart from the 30%(regular voters) of FG and FF family voters that will come out and vote the rest of us are still undecided.

Strange because its not consistent with other polls including those taken around the same time. A new poll contradicts this one.

As its random - you never know exactly if its a member of a political party they are asking. So to suggest that the results are based on core voters and wont reflect the actual result is a bit naive!

meditraitor

Sully wrote: »

Strange because its not consistent with other polls including those taken around the same time. A new poll contradicts this one.

As its random - you never know exactly if its a member of a political party they are asking. So to suggest that the results are based on core voters and wont reflect the actual result is a bit naive!

But today we have a poll saying FG are 37% thats a 7% swing in 2 days....... now thats strange ;-)

My point was these should be taken with a very large pinch of salt, the undecided voters and the questions asked in the phone polls are very relevent but because these are paid for by private entities there is no need to mention the structure of the poll in whole meaningfull way but only in the way the entity wishes to suit their own agenda.

cancercowboy

Not really relevant anymore considering the Red C poll that came out this morning that puts Fine Gael at 37% and Labour at 19%, 1 point ahead of Fianna Fáil!

Red C have acurately predicted the outcome in many elections including the 2007 general election.

ZYX

meditraitor wrote: »

But today we have a poll saying FG are 37% thats a 7% swing in 2 days....... now thats strange ;-)

My point was these should be taken with a very large pinch of salt, the undecided voters and the questions asked in the phone polls are very relevent but because these are paid for by private entities there is no need to mention the structure of the poll in whole meaningfull way but only in the way the entity wishes to suit their own agenda.

The polls are all +/- 3%. So todays 37% for FG could actually be 34% and the result 2 days ago could have been 33%. That means a 1% swing. Anyway they are by different polling companies and a lot depends on how the question is phrased.

femur61

cancercowboy wrote: »

Not really relevant anymore considering the Red C poll that came out this morning that puts Fine Gael at 37% and Labour at 19%, 1 point ahead of Fianna Fáil!

Red C have acurately predicted the outcome in many elections including the 2007 general election.

I hope so, get the feeling people are despairing aout Enda though, hope his being party leader doesn't jeprodise the parties chances.

cancercowboy

ZYX wrote: »

The polls are all +/- 3%. So todays 37% for FG could actually be 34% and the result 2 days ago could have been 33%. That means a 1% swing. Anyway they are by different polling companies and a lot depends on how the question is phrased.

Comparing two polls from separate companies isn't a recipe for success. The questions asked are different. Historically, Red C have proven to be very the most accurate when compared to Millward Brown.

Today's Red C poll was commissioned by Paddy Power who use this data to set odds on the election... as they have done for years. Accurately polling the electorate is of the utmost importance otherwise they could potentially lose hundreds of thousands of euro. Hence I, for one, am confident Fine Gael are at 37% full stop.

meditraitor

cancercowboy wrote: »

Today's Red C poll was commissioned by Paddy Power who use this data to set odds on the election... as they have done for years. Accurately polling the electorate is of the utmost importance otherwise they could potentially lose hundreds of thousands of euro. Hence I, for one, am confident Fine Gael are at 37% full stop.

I hope your right, although that is because 37% might only transfer into 40 odd seats if they dont get transfers ;-) happy days

deanh

meditraitor wrote: »

I hope your right, although that is because 37% might only transfer into 40 odd seats if they dont get transfers ;-) happy days

??
Although, on a P.R. allocation of 166 seats, it would be closer to 60+.

meditraitor

deanh wrote: »

??
Although, on a P.R. allocation of 166 seats, it would be closer to 60+.

Thats for sure but they really are putting their foot in it by the muck spreading, the labour transfers they might have got are dwindling, SF transfers were never going their way and with the FF vote getting lighter by the day I guess they may want to watch their backs.

deanh

meditraitor wrote: »

Thats for sure but they really are putting their foot in it by the muck spreading, the labour transfers they might have got are dwindling, SF transfers were never going their way and with the FF vote getting lighter by the day I guess they may want to watch their backs.

What are you on about 'muck spreading'? The only 'muck spreading' i've heard is the constant 'Where's Enda Kenny?' or 'FG and Labour are divided on policies'. This, from candidates who a month ago were saying 'They have no policies'. What about 'Why does Michael Martin shy away from his record in cabinet over the last 13 years?'

meditraitor

deanh wrote: »

What are you on about 'muck spreading'? The only 'muck spreading' i've heard is the constant 'Where's Enda Kenny?' or 'FG and Labour are divided on policies'. This, from candidates who a month ago were saying 'They have no policies'. What about 'Why does Michael Martin shy away from his record in cabinet over the last 13 years?'

I agree, FF have been up to their own tricks, I was talking about the whole anti labour rhethoric/bull that FG and their minions have been spouting for ages now.

And the "where's Enda?" campaign is not a really muck spreading, its exactly what people are thinking...... Where the feck was he till yesterday?

femur61

meditraitor wrote: »

Where the feck was he till yesterday?

Me thinks he had a public speaking coach. still makes me cringe but think he is a good mananger and policy maker. So he'll get my vote anyway.