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Staking strategy

  • 01-02-2011 3:18am
    #1
    GoldenBoot
    Closed Accounts Posts: 63 ✭✭


    Hello folks. I need help with a staking strategy for football betting that requires a good grasp of mathematical formulae that would not be readily available in the gambling forum.

    what would be the optimal betting strategy for the below scenario?

    starting bank balance: E1,000

    50 bets placed over the course of the season at odds of 1.57 each (E57 profit from each winning bet if E100 staked).

    Of the 50 bets 40 will win and 10 will lose.

    can you specify if your staking plan is based on starting bank or current bank during season.

    Thanks.


Comments

  • #2
    gerry87
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 872 ✭✭✭gerry87


    Kelly Criteron

    It would be known in gambling circles though.


  • #3
    GoldenBoot
    Closed Accounts Posts: 63 ✭✭GoldenBoot


    Im aware of the kelly criteron. its also seemingly true that its more profitable to use it based on starting bank but my preference is for a progressive system. Also there is a 33% chance of halving bank before doubling it with a progressive kelly system.


  • #4
    gerry87
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 872 ✭✭✭gerry87


    GoldenBoot wrote: »
    Im aware of the kelly criteron. its also seemingly true that its more profitable to use it based on starting bank but my preference is for a progressive system. Also there is a 33% chance of halving bank before doubling it with a progressive kelly system.

    What do you mean progressive? Kelly gives you a % of your current bankroll to bet, it's independent of your bankroll amount, so your bet size will change each time depending on your current bankroll (the % won't). What exactly are you looking for?

    You aren't going to get a proper betting system, the only other strategy I can think of is a martingale strategy... but that's not a good idea.

    For the bet you're looking at, afaik kelly wis your best option. Try it yourself on excel, it would be pretty easy to do for that problem. You'll get something like this http://boards.ie/vbulletin/attachment.php?attachmentid=138937&d=1291984363 the peak of the curve for that particular problem came in exactly at what kelly's formula said. It was from this thread if you're interested http://boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=69490540#post69490540


  • #5
    RoundTower
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,083 ✭✭✭RoundTower


    If you want to avoid halving your bankroll at all costs, I suggest getting a job instead.


  • #6
    gerry87
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 872 ✭✭✭gerry87


    RoundTower wrote: »
    If you want to avoid halving your bankroll at all costs, I suggest getting a job instead.

    I dunno, seems a pretty good bet to me, prefer that to a job anyway!

    And because i really have nothing better to be doing, here's a spreadsheet to mess round with.


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  • #7
    Fremen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,481 ✭✭✭Fremen


    GoldenBoot wrote: »
    Hello folks. I need help with a staking strategy for football betting that requires a good grasp of mathematical formulae that would not be readily available in the gambling forum.

    what would be the optimal betting strategy for the below scenario?

    starting bank balance: E1,000

    50 bets placed over the course of the season at odds of 1.57 each (E57 profit from each winning bet if E100 staked).

    Of the 50 bets 40 will win and 10 will lose.

    can you specify if your staking plan is based on starting bank or current bank during season.

    Thanks.

    As the problem is stated here, you can probably do much better than the Kelly criterion allows. If you know a priori that exactly ten losses will occur, once the ten losses have occurred, you are guaranteed to win every time.

    With this in mind, I reckon it could actually be quite interesting to try to find the optimal betting strategy.


  • #8
    GoldenBoot
    Closed Accounts Posts: 63 ✭✭GoldenBoot


    gerry87 wrote: »
    I dunno, seems a pretty good bet to me, prefer that to a job anyway!

    And because i really have nothing better to be doing, here's a spreadsheet to mess round with.


    thanks gerry. a bit of background on the info in the spreadsheet would be great.


  • #9
    GoldenBoot
    Closed Accounts Posts: 63 ✭✭GoldenBoot


    Fremen wrote: »
    As the problem is stated here, you can probably do much better than the Kelly criterion allows. If you know a priori that exactly ten losses will occur, once the ten losses have occurred, you are guaranteed to win every time.

    With this in mind, I reckon it could actually be quite interesting to try to find the optimal betting strategy.


    there has to be some sort of bankroll management at all times so it is not as simple as betting 100% of the bank after the 10th loss. the 80% has to be treated as imperfect information. It seems as if kelly will win this one.


  • #10
    gerry87
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 872 ✭✭✭gerry87


    GoldenBoot wrote: »
    thanks gerry. a bit of background on the info in the spreadsheet would be great.

    Basically any yellow cells are variables you can adjust. Then basically it runs the 50 bets about 200 times using the info you input. (the kelly entry is what kelly says you should bet based on the other inputs.)

    Up top you can see the highest, lowest and average that amount one of the 50 bet trials would have reached.

    On sheet two there's a histogram of end balances. Have a look how this changes when you change your betting stake, if you use kellys then its very clustered to the left of the histogram, if you use a smaller stake then its more spread out.

    When I did it, using kelly's the average was around €1.9 million, the max was €143 million and min was €0.28. With 5%, max €3,200, min €1,056, average €1,900.


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