Cyclone Yasi to hit Australia

isle of man

The cyclone strengthened to a Category 3 storm on Monday with winds up to 185 km/h, and is expected to strike the Queensland coast on Wednesday or Thursday as a Category 4 storm with gusts up to 260 km/h.

Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2011/01/31/australia-cyclone-yasi.html#ixzz1CeHUwcHN


not looking good at all if it hits, thats going to be some damage,


sorry if posted allready i took a look and could not find it,

Mayo Exile

Mayo Exile

Su Campu

IDQ20018TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0700 UTC 01/02/2011
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 14.4S
Longitude: 154.9E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [257 deg]
Speed of Movement: 18 knots [34 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 120 knots [220 km/h]
Central Pressure: 960 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 160 nm [295 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 250 nm [465 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 230 nm [425 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATADate/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 01/1800: 15.4S 151.3E: 050 [095]: 090 [165]: 950
+24: 02/0600: 16.5S 147.8E: 080 [150]: 105 [195]: 937
+36: 02/1800: 17.7S 144.3E: 110 [205]: 070 [130]: 969
+48: 03/0600: 19.0S 141.3E: 130 [240]: 040 [075]: 992
+60: 03/1800: 20.1S 138.7E: 160 [295]: 030 [050]: 999
+72: 04/0600: 21.3S 136.5E: 190 [350]: 025 [045]: 1000

REMARKS:Following a period of intensification overnight, Yasi has maintained intensityin the past 6-12 hours. The environment of low shear and good upper leveloutflow, assisted by an upper low to the south, is conducive for development,however the system is passing over an area of reduced ocean heat content whichmay be hindering intensification. Dvorak intensity based on eye pattern [EIR B surround, LG/B elongated eye; VIS1degree embedded distance but ragged subtraction] both giving DT=5.0, consistentwith adjusted MET. Mean winds estimated at 85 knots [top end CI=5.0] supportedby SATCON [95 knots 1min mean] as CIMMS AMSU estimates are higher than ADT.Further intensification can be expected with low shear, upper outflowenvironment persisting until landfall. How much influence the ocean heat contenthas on the intensification process remains a factor of uncertainty. Forecast motion is steady to the west southwest with a persisting mid-levelridge to the south. Models are quite consistent with the forecast motion. The combined factors of being intense, large, and motion at 18 knots areconducive for greater wave/swell generation to the south of of the forecasttrack. With the expectation of being a large and intense system, cyclone intensity maybe maintained further inland than normal.Copyright Commonwealth of Australia==The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 01/1300 UTC by BrisbaneTCWC.

DominoDub

Just got word from my cousin in Carins that they have been evacuated

Looks like the storm track has it hitting Carins full on !

gbee

http://www.cairnsgreatbarrierreef.org.au/Webpages/default.aspx?id=29

Two minute of stream ~ just went down.

Duiske

Any idea's on amounts of rainfall that would come from this storm ? Just looking at it in Google Earth, and it's one hell of a big system. Covers 1,200 miles north to south. :eek:

Dominodub wrote:

Just got word from my cousin in Carins that they have been evacuated

Looks like the storm track has it hitting Carins full on !

There's quite a few camping areas around Cairn's, which i'd imagine would be fairly busy at this time of year. Hope these site's are first priority for evacuation notice's.

Su Campu

Looks like around 100kts at landfall, with places like Inishfail and Caldwell getting the brunt of the winds and surge, being on the south side of the eye (remember it circulates clockwise!). Cairns will still get a battering.

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1321 UTC 01/02/2011
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 15.0S
Longitude: 153.1E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [252 deg]
Speed of Movement: 18 knots [34 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 100 knots [185 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 140 knots [260 km/h]
Central Pressure: 940 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 160 nm [295 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 250 nm [465 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 250 nm [465 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 40 nm [70 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm [390 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 02/0000: 16.1S 149.6E: 050 [095]: 105 [195]: 937
+24: 02/1200: 17.1S 146.0E: 080 [150]: 105 [195]: 937
+36: 03/0000: 18.4S 142.8E: 110 [205]: 050 [095]: 986
+48: 03/1200: 19.6S 140.0E: 130 [240]: 030 [060]: 998
+60: 04/0000: 20.8S 137.5E: 160 [295]: 025 [045]: 1001
+72: 04/1200: 21.5S 135.4E: 190 [350]: 025 [045]: 1000
REMARKS:
Yasi has intensified in the last 6 hours. The environment of low shear and good
upper level outflow, assisted by an upper low to the south, is conducive to
maintaining current intensity. There is the possibility of some further
intensification before landfall.
Dvorak intensity based on eye pattern [EIR B surround, OW eye] giving DT=6.0,
consistent with adjusted MET. Mean winds estimated at 100 knots.
Forecast motion is steady to the west southwest with a persisting mid-level
ridge to the south. Models are quite consistent with the forecast motion.
The combined factors of being intense, large, and motion at 18 knots are
conducive for greater wave/swell generation to the south of of the forecast
track.
With the expectation of being a large and intense system, cyclone intensity may
be maintained further inland than normal.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 01/1900 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

Su Campu

Duiske wrote: »

Any idea's on amounts of rainfall that would come from this storm ? Just looking at it in Google Earth, and it's one hell of a big system. Covers 1,200 miles north to south. :eek:

The Solomon Islands received over 70mm of rain up to 12UTC today, but it may be starting to weaken on reaching lanfall. Hurricane force winds are only extending 70km from the centre.

lolie

Duiske wrote: »

Any idea's on amounts of rainfall that would come from this storm ? Just looking at it in Google Earth, and it's one hell of a big system. Covers 1,200 miles north to south. :eek:


how do you check it on google maps?

Iancar29

lolie wrote: »

Duiske wrote: »

Any idea's on amounts of rainfall that would come from this storm ? Just looking at it in Google Earth, and it's one hell of a big system. Covers 1,200 miles north to south. :eek:


how do you check it on google maps?

No, google earth... on that its shows weather data on it, satellite images and radar.

lolie

cheers. i forgot i had google earth downloaded

DominoDub

Upgrade now a CAT 5 :eek:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YVLqOPPVFzA

isle of man

Yasi will also bring damaging waves and strong currents.
A strong monsoon is also feeding the cyclone and this could lead to it maintaining strength as sweeps inland, potentially up to 600 miles to the outback mining city of Mount Isa.
Airlines are laying on extra flights to get people out of the area, especially tourists with nowhere else to go.
But the storm is so wide that finding somewhere safe to move to will be difficult for tens of thousands of people.
The holiday resort of Hamilton Island has already been evacuated, and coal terminals in Bowen and Mackay have closed down in another blow to the state's mining industry which has already been disrupted by flooding.
Ms Bligh said the threat to life and property was compounded by the possibility it could trigger a tsunami-like storm surge, especially if its landfall coincided with a high tide.
Police have been empowered to use force if necessary to move people from danger zones.

isle of man

DominoDub wrote: »

Upgrade now a CAT 5 :eek:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/02/02/3127394.htm

Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi was upgraded to category five off north Queensland this morning as the weather bureau warned it was likely to be deadlier than any storm seen in Australia in living memory.


"There's still potential for it to become stronger ... as a strong category five we could see wind gusts in excess of 320 kilometres an hour. Which is just horrific."

320KMH, thats just menteal

eddiem10

Apologies if the link below has been posted already!

http://www.townsvillestorms.com/townsvilleskycam.html

isle of man

good find,
anyone know what time its ment to hit land at

je55ie

Must be a really frightening time for people there, really hope it weakens before it hits land...

isle of man

was just watching the moblie webcam in the link above, as they were driving the weather report came on the radio,

296kmh at the eye, and they recokn it be 280km guests that make land fall,

thats like 160mph winds :eek:

Mayo Exile

Mayo Exile

Impressive radar loop visible at the moment from this station.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR413.loop.shtml

EDIT: radar post may have been destroyed. See post #23 from Jake1 below. Now says "radar information is currently unavailable".


Captured radar image:

ronnie3585

Another shot.

Good link here for updates and coverage.They have 12 hrs 40mins till landfall.

10.04am A weather watcher in Cairns reported on Twitter that the Bureau of Meteorology observation post on Willis Island may have been destroyed. They are being slammed by the cyclone now, and no data has been reported for 40 minutes.

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/floodrelief/north-queensland-braces-for-cyclone-anthony-as-cyclone-yasi-brews-behind-it/story-fn7ik2te-1225997552623#ixzz1CkiIAzNm

Mayo Exile

Jake1 wrote: »

Good link here for updates and coverage.They have 12 hrs 40mins till landfall.

10.04am A weather watcher in Cairns reported on Twitter that the Bureau of Meteorology observation post on Willis Island may have been destroyed. They are being slammed by the cyclone now, and no data has been reported for 40 minutes.

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/floodrelief/north-queensland-braces-for-cyclone-anthony-as-cyclone-yasi-brews-behind-it/story-fn7ik2te-1225997552623#ixzz1CkiIAzNm

May explain why the radar loop I posted above is not sending any info past 2200 UTC. Eyewall of the storm was nearly at the location at that stage. EDIT: now saying "radar information is currently unavailable".

Satellite loop from the Japan Meteorological Association visible here: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/gms/index.html?area=4&element=1&mode=UTC

Sponge Bob

Wind readings have stopped at that weather station but pressure data was still coming in up to 9am local time, now 938hpa and dropping :eek:


Staff Evacuated yesterday thank God!

DominoDub

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR191.loop.shtml#skip

Xavi6

How big it actually is in comparison to the States -



Going to be an insane night.

Mayo Exile

fryup

isle of man wrote: »

good find,
anyone know what time its ment to hit land at

14.00 irish time

midnight local time

premiercad

Noaa Hurricane centre radar loop....:eek:


http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html

Elmo5

Am seriously worried, my cousin is just home from hospital with a new baby and in townsville :eek: she posted a photo on facebook yesterday with sand bags in their appartment

445279.ie

http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/floodrelief/north-queensland-braces-for-cyclone-anthony-as-cyclone-yasi-brews-behind-it/story-fn7ik2te-1225998711771

See the entry at 10.16pm of the highest wave recorded since records began at 6.6m :eek:

fizzycyst

That's actually 9.5m now, just announced at press conference.

gbee

61,000 people without power.

Emergency calls from Port Hinchinbrook. 75pmh winds in area no response possible.

fizzycyst

The 9.5m wave was registered off Point Cleveland near Townsville.

Mayo Exile

Harps

Friend of mine just moved there 2 weeks ago, think the worst of it will miss him to the north but still it'll be quite an experience compared to what he's used to in this country

Deep Easterly

Not sure if this vid was posted up already but nice sat animation of Yasi approaching the Queensland coast:

Mayo Exile

Radar Loop from Cairns station:

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR192.loop.shtml#skip

John mac

http://www.abc.net.au/local/players/streaming_aac.htm?streamFile=itinerantone&streamTitle=TC%20Yasi%20coverage&layout=popup

local radio coverage.

Iancar29

Townsville recored a wave height of 6.1m , breaking all previous heights since records began... then, only an hour or 2 ago a wave of 9.2m height was recorded!

Xavi6

I'm watching Sky News and they're struggling to keep contact with a reporter who is an hour away from where the eye is expected to hit. You can see the wind and rain in the background and it's vicious.

Yasi is slowing down but they're now worried about a secondary storm surge with tomorrow's high tide.

Mayo Exile

gbee

18m wave in Buoy off Townsville are NOT accurate. Buoy hit my waves and inverted.

irish1967

Wave height of 18 meters recorded but ABC radio live explained that's because the buoy has been turned upside down. Amazing to listen to it all live. (wunder radio app on iPhone ABC News Radio, Cairns)

gbee

89, 000 people without power, Townsville Evac centre without power. Early sos is from 5 over 60 residents who decided to stay. Water flooding ground floor, resident fearful on top floor of a 2 story.

Xavi6

gbee wrote: »

89, 000 people without power, Townsville Evac centre without power. Early sos is from 5 over 60 residents who decided to stay. Water flooding ground floor, resident fearful on top floor of a 2 story.

And their relatives are blaming the authorities for not giving enough warning! :rolleyes:

I'm on the other side of the country and all I've been hearing for the week is GTFO.

Big Daddy Cool

Xavi6 wrote: »

And their relatives are blaming the authorities for not giving enough warning! :rolleyes:

I'm on the other side of the country and all I've been hearing for the week is GTFO.

i suppose its always the way, they think they can see it out or they dont believe it will be as bad as everybody predicts, by the time they cop on, its to late

steveLFC24

Europe-Yasi size comparison :eek:

Deep Easterly

steveLFC24 wrote: »

Europe-Yasi size comparison :eek:

Bring that on!

Xavi6

290 km/h winds developing between Cairns and Ingham.