Seat predictions for the ULA at the general election

hoorsmelt

Just been having a look at the current polls and predictions, and it seems to me that the ULA has a realistic chance of getting 5-6 seats and of polling well even in areas where they won't win. Here's my breakdown of likely ULA TDs in the next Dáil.

Richard Boyd Barrett: at present he's the favourite for the last seat in Dún Laoighaire and is likely to take Barry Andrews seat.

Joe Higgins

Clare Daly: I'd say she's likely to take a seat as the FF vote collapses, off the back of her reputation as an activist and given the recent Aer Lingus struggle where Clare was formerly a shop-steward.

Joan Collins

Séamus Healy

These are the candidates most likely to win a seat. On a good day Mick Barry in Cork North Central could take a seat too.

http://www.unitedleftalliance.org/ula-candidates/

mgmt

I hope none of them.


Probably Joe Higgins will get back in when the constiuency reverts back to a 4 seater?

LeixlipRed

Why do you hope none of them? Expand on that.

Joe and RBB hopefully will get in. Clare Daly too. I also reckon Gino Kenny in Dublin Mid-West could do well. He's a sitting Councillor on South Dublin County Council and done really well in the locals last time. I reckon it's a battle between him and the SF candidate for the last seat. SF candidate is a parachute and hence we think Gino has a chance.

d'Oracle

Like everybody else I reckon Boyd Barrett and Joe Higgins have a good shot.

Couldn' comment on the others.

Pauleta

Boyd-Barrett just missed out the last time coming 6th behind Ciaran Cuffe. Dun Laoghaire has lost a seat for this election. I think Gilmore, Sean Barrett and Hanafin are bankers for seats. The 4th seat should go to Andrews. I wouldnt write off Boyd-Barrett but would say its highly unlikely. Dun Laoghaire is usually a high turn out and has a high proportion of older voters so i cant see much changing.

outandabout

It will be interesting to see how Clare Daly does. She will certainly get a pro Aer Lingus union vote but there may also be voters who are fed up with the constant strikes at the airline who won't vote for her.

Is the ULA now an officially registered party or are Joe Higgins and Clare Daly still members of the Socialist Workers?

LeixlipRed

Joe Higgins and Clare Daly are in the Socialist Party. They were never in the SWP. The ULA is an electoral alliance. Not a party yet though they may have registered it as a party to get it on the voting slips. Eventually the hope is to merge the SP and the SWP and all the attached groupings into one radical left party with the individual parties allowed to organise seperately within that organisation.

hoorsmelt

outandabout wrote: »

It will be interesting to see how Clare Daly does. She will certainly get a pro Aer Lingus union vote but there may also be voters who are fed up with the constant strikes at the airline who won't vote for her.

Is the ULA now an officially registered party or are Joe Higgins and Clare Daly still members of the Socialist Workers?

It's just an electoral alliance. Hopefully it will form the embryo of a new left party similar to the NPA in France or Die Linke in Germany. Joe and Clare remain members of the Socialist Party (not Socialist Workers) as Richard Boyd Barrett and others remain members of People Before Profit. As for Aer Lingus, there haven't been that many strikes there and Clare was prominent in calling on the government to nationalise SR Technics when it was shut down in 2009.

Weyhey

I am seriously considering giving Joan Collins my no.1 vote due to her honest nature and past work.

Although any time I even think of mentioning her or People Before Profit some folk seem to get aggressive and want to intimidate me into changing my mind or make me feel cr*p for my opinion. I find it very disheartening that some people can't seem to accept other peoples voting opinions.

jank

Hopefully none but will probably get 2-3.. says it all really about them.

Pete M.

Declan Bree is now part of the United Left Alliance.

He has a fair enough chance of a seat in Sligo/N. Leitrim.

We've had enough Socialism for the Rich, let's have some for the rest of us now eh?

randomhuman

jank wrote: »

Hopefully none but will probably get 2-3.. says it all really about them.

What exactly is it that you think that says about them?

rxan90

Sunday Independent gave the ULA three predictions today: Clare Daly (Dublin North), Joe Higgins (Dublin West) and Richard Boyd Barrett (Dun Laoghaire)

the groutch

Pauleta wrote: »

Boyd-Barrett just missed out the last time coming 6th behind Ciaran Cuffe. Dun Laoghaire has lost a seat for this election. I think Gilmore, Sean Barrett and Hanafin are bankers for seats. The 4th seat should go to Andrews. I wouldnt write off Boyd-Barrett but would say its highly unlikely. Dun Laoghaire is usually a high turn out and has a high proportion of older voters so i cant see much changing.

hanafin & andrews to be re-elected? what planet are you living on?

jank

randomhuman wrote: »

What exactly is it that you think that says about them?

2-3 seats out of 167 says it all and their "popularity"

JBnaglfar

Another poll suggests they may take a seat in Cork North Central.