Fianna Fail Election Watch

The Volt

A thread to keep an eye on the 77 Fianna Fail elected TDs. How many will we be at post-election? Blue Peter badge to whoever guesses

It remains to be seen how many of these actually run. I would appreciate if a mod could update this accordingly but as it stands they hold 71 seats. Crossed out are TDs who have decided not to run, deceased, became MEPs or now run as an independent.


Michael Ahern - Cork East
Barry Andrews - Dún Laoghaire
Chris Andrews - Dublin South East
Bobby Aylward - Carlow–Kilkenny
Niall Blaney - Donegal North East
Áine Brady - Kildare North
Cyprian Brady - Dublin Central
Johnny Brady - Meath West
John Browne - Wexford
Thomas Byrne - Meath East
Dara Calleary - Mayo
Pat Carey - Dublin North West
Niall Collins - Limerick West
Margaret Conlon - Cavan–Monaghan
Seán Connick - Wexford
Mary Coughlan - Donegal South West
Brian Cowen - Laois–Offaly
John Cregan - Limerick West
John Curran - Dublin Mid West
Timmy Dooley - Clare
Frank Fahey - Galway West
Michael Fitzpatrick - Kildare North
Seán Fleming - Laois–Offaly
Mary Hanafin - Dún Laoghaire
Seán Haughey - Dublin North Central
Máire Hoctor - Tipperary North
Billy Kelleher - Cork North Central
Peter Kelly - Longford–Westmeath
Brendan Kenneally - Waterford
Michael Kennedy - Dublin North
Séamus Kirk - Louth
Michael Kitt - Galway East
Brian Lenihan - Dublin West
Conor Lenihan - Dublin South West
Micheál Martin - Cork South Central
Tom McEllistrim - Kerry North
Michael McGrath - Cork South Central
John McGuinness - Carlow–Kilkenny
Martin Mansergh - Tipperary South
John Moloney - Laois–Offaly
Michael Moynihan - Cork North West
Michael Mulcahy - Dublin South Central
Darragh O'Brien - Dublin North
Éamon Ó Cuív - Galway West
Charlie O'Connor - Dublin South West
Willie O'Dea - Limerick East
John O'Donoghue - Kerry South
Seán Ó Fearghaíl - Kildare South
Noel O'Flynn - Cork North Central
Mary O'Rourke - Longford–Westmeath
Christy O'Sullivan - Cork South West
Peter Power - Limerick East
Seán Power - Kildare South
Dick Roche - Wicklow
Eamon Scanlon - Sligo–North Leitrim
Brendan Smith - Cavan–Monaghan
Noel Treacy - Galway East

Noel Ahern - Dublin North West
Bertie Ahern - Dublin Central
Dermot Ahern - Louth
Seán Ardagh - Dublin South Central
Joe Behan - Wicklow
Séamus Brennan - Dublin South
Martin Cullen - Waterford
Noel Dempsey - Meath West
Jimmy Devins - Sligo–North Leitrim
Michael Finneran - Roscommon–South Leitrim
Beverley Flynn - Mayo
Pat "the Cope" Gallagher - Donegal South West
Tony Killeen - Clare
Tom Kitt - Dublin South
Jim McDaid - Donegal North East
Mattie McGrath - Tipperary South
M. J. Nolan Carlow – Kilkenny
Rory O'Hanlon - Cavan-Monaghan
Batt O'Keeffe - Cork North West
Ned O'Keeffe - Cork East
Mary Wallace - Meath East
Michael Woods - Dublin North East

johnmcdnl

i say 23

Only 19 stepped down/resigned/passed away so far?!

I honestly thought there would be more

The Volt

Papa Smut wrote: »

Only 19 stepped down/resigned/passed away so far?!

I honestly thought there would be more

They've not finished selection processes in many places. Furthermore, they'll still run 3 candidates in some places. They're a mess.

bernardo mac

When the final list is confirmed Paddy Power will probably open a book and a variety of bets.Could be interesting and profitable:D and counter the cuts:rolleyes:

Devilman40k

bernardo mac wrote: »

When the final list is confirmed Paddy Power will probably open a book and a variety of bets.Could be interesting and profitable:D and counter the cuts:rolleyes:

I think they have been giving odds of 3/1 on FF returning 25 seats or less

3DataModem

The spread is currently 28-31 FF seats, and is very tight.

Leiva

Im gonna go as low as 15

wonderfulname

Mixednuts, they won't go that low, they won't die. They are too big a party, I'd say 30-40, a lot of undecideds will gravitate back to them.

Devilman40k

wonderfulname wrote: »

Mixednuts, they won't go that low, they won't die. They are too big a party, I'd say 30-40, a lot of undecideds will gravitate back to them.

No party is too big to fall. The days of Fianna Fail as a national institution are gone, they are now a mortal normal party and as such are at the whim now of the electorate and if my locality is any indicator they are going to be wiped out altogether!

Watching them implode over the last week and a half has been akin to watching an empire burn, and watching how many of them managed to mix nation and party and confuse the 2 has shown them as delusional, out of touch and probably ready for a long period in the electoral wilderness

I'd say 25 seats is about right for them.

wonderfulname

Maybe to you devilman, they still have a lot of support.

bladespin

mixednuts wrote: »

Im gonna go as low as 15

I'll throw my tuppence in there too.

Leiva

wonderfulname wrote: »

Mixednuts, they won't go that low, they won't die. They are too big a party, I'd say 30-40, a lot of undecideds will gravitate back to them.

/bookmarks post

The Volt

I reckon they'll get 25, I hope mixednuts figure is right though

therealjamie

Looks like there's another couple of to cross out.

Mattie Mcgrath gone, running as IND

22 down, wonder what the final figure will be?

elguapo

I'll go for the 20-25 range, let's say 22. Things have never been as bad for them, but they'll still be the leading opposition party. Shocking to think they could, and in my opinion will, lose 2/3 of their seats. Or 80% of them if mixednuts proves correct!

DoesNotCompute

Put me down for 23

sealgaire

Plenty of support for Ó Cuív it seems

http://www.thejournal.ie/poll-who-gets-your-vote-for-the-ff-leadership-2011-01/?voted=1

The Volt

Micheál Martin is the new leader of Fianna Fáil, Ireland's fourth most popular party.

Pherekydes

Voltwad wrote: »

Micheál Martin is the new leader of Fianna Fáil, Ireland's fourth most popular party.

I would be highly amused if Martin was returned along with 12 deputies who didn't vote for him in the leadership vote. The dirty dozen.

I'm going for 13.

More realistically, their vote will rebound somewhat, maybe to 20%, and this should ensure they win about 35-40 seats. This will be seen as a brilliant result and an affirmation of Martin's leadership. :rolleyes:

benagain

they should all be dropped onto spike island an forgotton about shower of naxty baxtards

mayotom

Voltwad wrote: »

A thread to keep an eye on the 77 Fianna Fail elected TDs. How many will we be at post-election? Blue Peter badge to whoever guesses

It remains to be seen how many of these actually run. I would appreciate if a mod could update this accordingly but as it stands they hold 71 seats. Crossed out are TDs who have decided not to run, deceased, became MEPs or now run as an independent.


Michael Ahern - Cork East
Barry Andrews - Dún Laoghaire
Chris Andrews - Dublin South East
Bobby Aylward - Carlow–Kilkenny
Niall Blaney - Donegal North East
Áine Brady - Kildare North
Cyprian Brady - Dublin Central
Johnny Brady - Meath West
John Browne - Wexford
Thomas Byrne - Meath East
Dara Calleary - Mayo
Pat Carey - Dublin North West
Niall Collins - Limerick West
Margaret Conlon - Cavan–Monaghan
Seán Connick - Wexford
Mary Coughlan - Donegal South West
Brian Cowen - Laois–Offaly If he runs otherwise it will be sean flemming
John Cregan - Limerick West
John Curran - Dublin Mid West
Timmy Dooley - Clare
Frank Fahey - Galway West
Michael Fitzpatrick - Kildare North
Seán Fleming - Laois–Offaly
Mary Hanafin - Dún Laoghaire
Seán Haughey - Dublin North Central
Máire Hoctor - Tipperary North
Billy Kelleher - Cork North Central
Peter Kelly - Longford–Westmeath
Brendan Kenneally - Waterford
Michael Kennedy - Dublin North
Séamus Kirk - Louth only by default
Michael Kitt - Galway East
Brian Lenihan - Dublin West mainly due to the news in todays times
Conor Lenihan - Dublin South West
Micheál Martin - Cork South Central but not a poll topper this time
Tom McEllistrim - Kerry North
Michael McGrath - Cork South Central
John McGuinness - Carlow–Kilkenny
Martin Mansergh - Tipperary South
John Moloney - Laois–Offaly
Michael Moynihan - Cork North West
Michael Mulcahy - Dublin South Central
Darragh O'Brien - Dublin North
Éamon Ó Cuív - Galway West
Charlie O'Connor - Dublin South West
Willie O'Dea - Limerick East
Seán Ó Fearghaíl - Kildare South
Noel O'Flynn - Cork North Central
John O'Donoghue - Kerry South
Mary O'Rourke - Longford–Westmeath although I could see her retire once the election is called
Christy O'Sullivan - Cork South West
Peter Power - Limerick East
Seán Power - Kildare South
Dick Roche - Wicklow
Eamon Scanlon - Sligo–North Leitrim
Brendan Smith - Cavan–Monaghan

Noel Treacy - Galway East

Noel Ahern - Dublin North West
Bertie Ahern - Dublin Central
Dermot Ahern - Louth
Seán Ardagh - Dublin South Central
Joe Behan - Wicklow
Séamus Brennan - Dublin South
Martin Cullen - Waterford
Noel Dempsey - Meath West
Jimmy Devins - Sligo–North Leitrim
Michael Finneran - Roscommon–South Leitrim
Beverley Flynn - Mayo
Pat "the Cope" Gallagher - Donegal South West
Tony Killeen - Clare
Tom Kitt - Dublin South
Jim McDaid - Donegal North East
Mattie McGrath - Tipperary South
M. J. Nolan Carlow – Kilkenny
Rory O'Hanlon - Cavan-Monaghan
Batt O'Keeffe - Cork North West
Ned O'Keeffe - Cork East
Mary Wallace - Meath East
Michael Woods - Dublin North East

RED to loose their seat
GREEN to retain their seat

Leaving 24 FF TD's :D

The Volt

If Cock Roche loses his seat I will probably climax.

steelcityblues

35

Just wait for the simple minded morons to magically 'forget' the existence of pieces of s*** like Ahern and Cowen once they step inside their voting hall.

Magi11

25-28 seats. Will be hailed as a better than expectated result by all the FFer's boring us to tears on the count night. Basically means they should be out of power for 10 years at least.

hoorsmelt

I'm gonna say 10-15 seats. It's every man for himself in there at the moment, no pr1cking around trying to get number 2s for running mates etc. Just an example, Willie O Dea dropped a letter in the door the other day in which he asked for support for himself, then as a small addition for his 'partner', who remained unnamed. Nowhere will they get more than one seat in a constituency and if Cowen goes (as seems likely) they'll have only one seat in Laois Offaly too. Roll on annhilation I say

mayotom

mayotom wrote: »

RED to loose their seat
GREEN to retain their seat

Leaving 24 FF TD's :D

Thats Neil Blaney and Noel O'Flynn gone now two, I will now go for 23 seats

Shelflife

Are you saying no FF seat in mayo? who will take them all ? at the moment they only have one candidate and thats Dara.

steelcityblues

May have to rethink my initial prediction with even more retirements.

Incredible!

gandalf

The rumour is if Cowen doesn't run Mary Coughlan will throw in the towel as well!

Kristopherus

Hopefully !!!

puffdragon

Man U are facing a fine from the FA in Britain for fielding a sub-standard team on saturday, any chance we could sue FF for not trying?

Sierra Oscar

steelcityblues wrote: »

May have to rethink my initial prediction with even more retirements.

Incredible!

Your forgetting to include some of the first time candidates who are putting their names and may mount a decent challenge when they focus on local issues during the campaign. John Hillery in Clare & Averil Power in Dublin North East immediately jump to my mind.

swiss

I would find it very hard to make a prediction, because a few percentage points in terms of the vote could make a huge difference to the number of TDs by virtue of the 4 seater consituencies that may still retain 1 FF seat, for example in Dun Laoighre, Waterford, Kildare, etc.

As much as I would love to see the demise of FF, I'm fearful that there is a pretty significant group of people who are just looking for a reason to vote FF again. My suspicion is that some of these disaffected yet traditional FF voters will buy the guff from Mícheal about the break from the past and hop onto to party bandwagon. This would prevent a total meltdown and in that respect could be viewed as a respectable showing by party apologists.

steelcityblues

A lovely gift presented to the opposing candidates of Brian Lenihan in Dublin West today.

What does Martin, the new 'brains' of FF do but appoint the man at the centre of the recent financial c*ck up to the role of finance spokesperson, instead of relegating him to the sidelines.

All opponents need to do now is mention this on the campaign trail, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Lenny lose out.

mayotom

Michael Ahern - Cork East
Barry Andrews - Dún Laoghaire
Chris Andrews - Dublin South East
Bobby Aylward - Carlow–Kilkenny
Áine Brady - Kildare North
Cyprian Brady - Dublin Central
Johnny Brady - Meath West
John Browne - Wexford
Thomas Byrne - Meath East
Dara Calleary - Mayo may change if another candidate is anounced
Pat Carey - Dublin North West
Niall Collins - Limerick West
Margaret Conlon - Cavan–Monaghan
Seán Connick - Wexford
John Cregan - Limerick West
John Curran - Dublin Mid West
Timmy Dooley - Clare
Frank Fahey - Galway West
Michael Fitzpatrick - Kildare North
Seán Fleming - Laois–Offaly
Mary Hanafin - Dún Laoghaire
Seán Haughey - Dublin North Central
Máire Hoctor - Tipperary North
Billy Kelleher - Cork North Central
Peter Kelly - Longford–Westmeath
Brendan Kenneally - Waterford
Michael Kennedy - Dublin North
Séamus Kirk - Louth but only by default
Michael Kitt - Galway East
Brian Lenihan - Dublin West
Conor Lenihan - Dublin South West
Micheál Martin - Cork South Central
Tom McEllistrim - Kerry North
Michael McGrath - Cork South Central
John McGuinness - Carlow–Kilkenny
Martin Mansergh - Tipperary South
John Moloney - Laois–Offaly
Michael Moynihan - Cork North West
Michael Mulcahy - Dublin South Central
Darragh O'Brien - Dublin North
Éamon Ó Cuív - Galway West
Charlie O'Connor - Dublin South West
Willie O'Dea - Limerick East
John O'Donoghue - Kerry South
Seán Ó Fearghaíl - Kildare South
Mary O'Rourke - Longford–Westmeath
Christy O'Sullivan - Cork South West
Peter Power - Limerick East
Seán Power - Kildare South
Dick Roche - Wicklow
Eamon Scanlon - Sligo–North Leitrim
Brendan Smith - Cavan–Monaghan

Mary Coughlan - Donegal South West Maybe she has said she would quit if Cowan quit, now can she live up to her word, if not where is her credibility gone


Brian Cowen - Laois–Offaly
Niall Blaney - Donegal North East
Noel O'Flynn - Cork North Central
Noel Treacy - Galway East


Noel Ahern - Dublin North West
Bertie Ahern - Dublin Central
Dermot Ahern - Louth
Seán Ardagh - Dublin South Central
Joe Behan - Wicklow
Séamus Brennan - Dublin South
Martin Cullen - Waterford
Noel Dempsey - Meath West
Jimmy Devins - Sligo–North Leitrim
Michael Finneran - Roscommon–South Leitrim
Beverley Flynn - Mayo
Pat "the Cope" Gallagher - Donegal South West
Tony Killeen - Clare
Tom Kitt - Dublin South
Jim McDaid - Donegal North East
Mattie McGrath - Tipperary South
M. J. Nolan Carlow – Kilkenny
Rory O'Hanlon - Cavan-Monaghan
Batt O'Keeffe - Cork North West
Ned O'Keeffe - Cork East
Mary Wallace - Meath East
Michael Woods - Dublin North East


Green to retain seat
Red to loose seat

Somebody new to get in, in Donegal NE and Roscommon-South Leitrim and one random somewhere possibly Barry Cowan


Total FF seats 23

b4boxer

Not a hope Mary O'Rourke to retain a seat !!

Big splits in FF in Athlone.

johnmcdnl

I see Brendan Smith for Cavan having a real struggle to get re elected - agriculture is huge in Cavan/Monaghan and as minister for agriculture he was a disaster...
A lot of the farmers I know won't be voting for him because when he had power as a minister he did very little if anything to help farmers that anyone round here seen anyways..

He was a minister - but that'll work to his disadvantage in this election - if he'd stayed as a back benched or junior minister I'd say he'd have held onto his seat but minister for Agriculture and having doing such a terrible job at it could easily result in a seat lost for him..

I see him maybe sneaking a 5th seat but wouldn't be surprised at all if he didn't get in..

steelcityblues

From all the polls i've been observing, the following seem to be the only safe FF seats in the country:

John McGuinness (Carlow/Kilkenny)
Brendan Smith (Cavan/Monaghan)
Billy Kelleher (Cork North Central)
Michael Martin (Cork South Central)
Eamon O'Cuiv (Galway West)
Barry Cowen (Laois/Offaly)
Willie O'Dea (Limerick City)

Everyone else looks to have a fight on their hands!

Leiva

mixednuts wrote: »

Im gonna go as low as 15

wonderfulname wrote: »

Mixednuts, they won't go that low, they won't die. They are too big a party, I'd say 30-40, a lot of undecideds will gravitate back to them.

bladespin wrote: »

I'll throw my tuppence in there too.

mixednuts wrote: »

/bookmarks post

I'm really looking forward to getting my Blue Peter Badge today

Leiva

who won ?