Thyestes Chase 2011

ft9

So whats your opinions?
POMME TIEPY currently 4/1 fav for it.

Goldcupfav

http://www.attheraces.com/card.aspx?raceid=309256&meetingid=43520&date=2011-01-20&ref=fixtures&refsite=&nav=racecards

Pomme Tiepy seems a bit short for my liking havent really had a proper look into the race yet though!

UrbanSea

Alpha Ride each way for me at 8/1

UrbanSea

Postponed til Saturday.
http://www.irishracing.com/v5newsitem?prid=50600

geno

Here are the trends for last 10 years of this, think Ten Fires is going to be my pick for the race:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
7yo: 2-2-16
8yo: 3-7-36
9yo: 4-10-40
10yo: 0-4-33
11yo+: 1-3-25
Horses aged 7 to 9 have a combined record of 9-19-92, which compares well to horses aged 10+: 1-7-58.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-9 or more: 1-10-63
Horses carrying 10-8 or less: 9-16-87
Horses carrying less than 10-9 have won 9 of the last 10 runnings of this race.

Official Ratings
Horses rated 130 or higher: 3-10-63
Horses rated 129 or lower: 7-16-87
7 of 10 winners were officially rated 129 or lower. The highest rated winner since 2001 was 135.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had won over at least 3 miles
8 of 10 winners (last 8) had run in 5 or less handicap chases
8 of 10 winners had run in 12 or fewer chases
8 of 10 winners were first or second season chasers (2 exceptions were previous winners of the race)
10 of 10 winners had had a run since Christmas (last 30 days)
8 of 10 winners ran at Leopardstown or Limerick Christmas meetings
8 of 10 winners had won or placed in a grade C or higher chase

Other Races
Previous year's winner (Whinstone Boy): 5P5610 (1-0-6)
Ten Up Novice Chase winner (Telenor): 003 (0-1-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Paddy Power Chase last time, finishing 9FF
2 of 10 (2 of last 3) ran in the Tim Duggan Memorial Chase, finishing 73

Trainers
Willie Mullins (2-4-17) has saddled 1 win and 3 places in the past 4 years and has trained 3 of the last 11 winners.
Tony Martin (1-2-5) has gained 1 win and 2 places from 5 runners in this.
James Mangan (1-0-4) trained Whinstone Lad to win the race last year and he is entered again this time around.
Dessie Hughes (0-4-4) has seen all 4 of his runners make the places since 2001.

Running Style
3 of 10 winners led/made all
2 of 10 winners tracked leaders
3 of 10 winners were settled in mid-division
2 of 10 winners were held up towards rear

Price
No strong trends on the prices with 3 of the last 4 going off 16/1 or bigger but the other 5 of the last 8 going off at 8/1 or shorter.
Favourites (2-4-11) have gained just 2 wins in the past decade, giving a level stakes loss of 3.42.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 7 to 9
• Carrying 10-8 or less
• Officially rated 129 or less
• Run since Christmas (ideally at Limerick or Leopardstown)
• Has won over 3M+
• Run in 5 or fewer handicap chases
• First or second season chaser
• Won or placed in a Grade C or better chase
• Trained by Willie Mullins, Tony Martin or Dessie Hughes

gscully

geno wrote: »

Here are the trends for last 10 years of this, think Ten Fires is going to be my pick for the race

Impressive analysis, but all it takes is one horse to buck the trend and your money is gone.

geno

gscully wrote: »

Impressive analysis, but all it takes is one horse to buck the trend and your money is gone.

I just lifed them off another site. They're just a guide to what you should be looking for. All it takes is one fence and your money is gone, but you do form study, look at trends etc. to make sure you've picked one that at least has a chance

Nulty

geno wrote: »

Here are the trends for last 10 years of this, think Ten Fires is going to be my pick for the race:

<SNIP>

Good work geno, we need more of this kind of thing around here.

Nulty

geno wrote: »

I just lifed them off another site. They're just a guide to what you should be looking for. All it takes is one fence and your money is gone, but you do form study, look at trends etc. to make sure you've picked one that at least has a chance

I never suspected anything else but its good to post that kind of stuff here. If ever you fancy doing it again it'll be appreciated. But I don't follow them rigidly but they are a good pointer.

bit of a bogey

Good stats Geno but will Ten Fires get in?

UrbanSea

I hope he does,I'm going for Smoking Aces behind him.

Nulty

Thyestes Chase

Pomme Tiepy 1pt @ 5/1

Agus a Vic 1pt @ 10/1

As 3rd and 4th in the Paddy Power these two are clearly attractive with recent form in the book. Both have won over 3m and will be staying on from the back provided the jump well enough. I was attracted by my betting blackhole Stewards House but there seems as though therre will be plenty of horses that like to lead and race prominantly. That not only gives SH competition and may put pressure on his jumping but also means he can't dictate a pace and he looks like a non-stayer but I reckon he could pick up a race over 3m, just probably not this one. Pomme Tiepy has come down the weight a lot since he won 2 G2s on the bounce as a novice both over 3m. He meets a lot of the stats for this race historically and can't really find much to oppose him with. Agus a Vic is exposed but still has plenty of ability and stays on the same mark from Leopardstown. Another one sure to get the trip, hes only had 6 races outside hunter-chases and looks to be in better form since going handicap chasing.

I also like Telenor but would only consider backing him if there was good money for him before the race.

thesandeman

Baring mishaps I cant see Alpha Ridge getting beaten. Ground should be perfect today.

minty16

thesandeman wrote: »

Baring mishaps I cant see Alpha Ridge getting beaten. Ground should be perfect today.

Absolutely detest comments like these. 'barring mishaps'' like for jesus sake the horse is a maiden over fences , we're not talking about Kauto Star here.

He should have a decent chance though. Personally I might have an interest bet but looks a very tricky race.

Nulty

Agree Minty, Dont see how you can be confident about a maiden over fences in a race like the Thyestes. He is priced accordingly on his ability though - short enough.

If Stewards House wins today I'll flip. Pricewise selection. But he was my pick for the Paddy Power at Leopardstown. See my previous post.

premierstone

Fancy Hangover myself, obviously you have to excuse him hes last race for him to feature but Nolans horses are in much better form, he likes it around here and was second in this last year.

minty16

premierstone wrote: »

Fancy Hangover myself, obviously you have to excuse him hes last race for him to feature but Nolans horses are in much better form, he likes it around here and was second in this last year.

I agree with you but Paul Nolan doesnt train.

premierstone

minty16 wrote: »

I agree with you but Paul Nolan doesnt train.

Sorry my bad, Conor O'Dwyer, anyway I see that the other Giggistown horse won, at work so have only seen the result anyone give a summary of how the race went be much appreciated!

minty16

Hate to say I considered the top one before plumping for Hangover. Was only going to be a small bet but I said it to a few lads here in work that with the field being pretty poor (imo) the top one might be worth plumping for. Same as previous poster, in work and a summary would be appreciated.

Nulty

Whinestone Boy started out in front at a decent pace with Siegemaster (dropped back to race in 6th) Jamie Will Run and Miss Mitch. Alpha Ridge pulled his way up to join Whinestone for the lead after 3 fences. They ended up going around 3l in front of Hangover. Hangover and Whinestone swapped places on the second circuit with Alpha Ridge in the van the whole way. Siegemaster travelled beautifully the whole way - tanking. Hangover fell out the back 4 out. Whinestone left in second to Alpha 3 out. Alpha lost 1st between the second and last when anyone of 6 could have won. Ballytrim and Midnight Club stayed on with TMC challenging right up to 100 yards out but Siegemaster had too much.

Dessie Hughes commented that handicapper gave him a chance since last year where he ran a good race. Aimed at the Irish National again this year and Aintree next year.

hucklebuck

Nulty wrote: »

Whinestone Boy started out in front at a decent pace with Siegemaster (dropped back to race in 6th) Jamie Will Run and Miss Mitch. Alpha Ridge pulled his way up to join Whinestone for the lead after 3 fences. They ended up going around 3l in front of Hangover. Hangover and Whinestone swapped places on the second circuit with Alpha Ridge in the van the whole way. Siegemaster travelled beautifully the whole way - tanking. Hangover fell out the back 4 out. Whinestone left in second to Alpha 3 out. Alpha lost 1st between the second and last when anyone of 6 could have won. Ballytrim and Midnight Club stayed on with TMC challenging right up to 100 yards out but Siegemaster had too much.

Dessie Hughes commented that handicapper gave him a chance since last year where he ran a good race. Aimed at the Irish National again this year and Aintree next year.

Did Alpha Ridge and Midnight Chase EW, thought I was going to have the winner two out. Lovely ride on Siegemaster, he deserves it.