Eamon Gilmore issues motion of no confidence in the Taiseach

orourkeda

http://www.labour.ie/press/listing/129501712616422669.html

DrumSteve

another one eh? Lets see who backs up the bauld brian.

bmaxi

If FF didn't do it on their own terms, they won't do it on Labour's. Bit of a dilemma for Lowry & Co. though.

Sir Oxman

This will put even more pressure on FF to sort out their, ahem, leadership problems very quickly. Also, puts the Greens in the spotlight again.

I'd say FF are snookered.

1. Keep Cowen and vote confidence in him and thus have him as leader during the GE*
2. Ditch him as leader, keep as Taoiseach and have to vote confidence in him as Taoiseach after voting NC in him as FF leader.
3. Ditch him as leader, resigns as Taoiseach, new FFer takes over and the GP and Inds must decide whether the 3rd FF taoiseach in the one Dail is acceptable.

*Okay they can ditch him before teh GE but how would they explain that one.

steelcityblues

Once again lagging behind SF and the Independents.

They are not ruthless enough!

Sir Oxman

steelcityblues wrote: »

Once again lagging behind SF and the Independents.

They are not ruthless enough!

Yeah but the SF/Technical grouping would not have got their NC motion heard till March I believe.

Morelike FG wrongfooted by Labour again.

56lcd

let's hope today is the day that fianna fail lose power forever

ilovesleep

All of FF have to leave. Not just cowen. Any chance they could be removed without a general election.

steelcityblues

gambiaman wrote: »

Yeah but the SF/Technical grouping would not have got their NC motion heard till March I believe.

Morelike FG wrongfooted by Labour again.

Labour though, according to Gilmore himself, are meant to be the one of the main contenders for the next government, yet they don't show it time and time again!

seamus

The aim here is not so much to oust Cowen specifically but to collapse the Government and leave FF disorganised and dishevelled for the election campaign.

Even Labour themselves admitted that Cowen stepping down as leader at this stage would be insane as we'd have the government majority party run by a leader who's not Taoiseach. Cowen would be a lame duck Taoiseach in other words.

Or, what gambiaman said. He can't resign as FF leader, and I'm skeptical that the Greens would vote for a new FF Taoiseach. So all FF can do is batten down the hatches and hope that the Green TDs don't break ranks. Which they may do.

They are not ruthless enough!

I'm a little confused by this comment. Do you think this should have been called earlier?

SB-08

Is this a motion of no confidence in Cowen or the Govt? I know SF's is in Cowen himself but if this is just in the Govt the chances of it working are slim. If it's in Cowen himself then the situation is different and will really put pressure on Cowen to step aside as too many of FF TD's have said there should be a new leader and it would be unlikely he would win such a vote.

Any idea when this will take place? Before the FF PP meeting next week?

bcmf

The Greens will hang in until their precious bill is passed.
I would imagine that FF will get to keep Cowen and prob Labour know this. Having Cowen as a very hurt leader-but leader all the same- on an approach to the GE is more likely to inflict more damage to FF at the polls then if FF have a quick chance to re-group and mininmise losses.
The opposition are prob thinking-kick him, kick him again but dont kill him! (politically wise I mean)

steelcityblues

I'm a little confused by this comment. Do you think this should have been called earlier?[/QUOTE]

Yes. When a Taoiseach has an approval rating of 14%, the opportunity is there to grab the bull by the horns straight away!

wolfpawnat

This is after SF's and the Independants one yesterday?

zig

Rant time...This is honestly becoming a joke at this stage. We are talking about the leaders of our country here, if this motion fails then anyone who has ANYTHING to do with FF should be completely ashamed of themselves. It will be a clear statement that none of these TDs have any interest in the good of the country, and have only the interest of sorting out their own little private mess. Itd be one thing if they genuinely believed Cowen was a good leader but they dont so they would be selling themselves out at this stage if the motion fails.
Absolute disgrace the lot of them.

alex73

I would say its time Cowen started packing

CorkMan

Biffo should head back off to Malaysia.

seamus

steelcityblues wrote: »

Yes. When a Taoiseach has an approval rating of 14%, the opportunity is there to grab the bull by the horns straight away!

Ah but the approval rating is irrelevent. You need to strike while the support of his coalition partners and his own party is shaking. He could have 1% support of the population, but as long as his party support him a no confidence motion is pointless.

I imagine Gilmore heard either late yesterday or early this morning about the comments that the Daily Mail published today in relation to David Drumm's conversation with Cowen.

Up to now, the FF members were aware/supportive of the Seanie Fitz thing, but today's revelations are another level altogether, so I reckon Gilmore is taking this specific opportunity when suspicion of Cowen within FF is likely to be at its highest.

The weekend will either or make or break FF IMO - if the party decide to stick with him, they'll be OK. But if any more papers have their hands on any further after-dinner gossip, it'll be curtains.

steelcityblues

seamus wrote: »

Ah but the approval rating is irrelevent. You need to strike while the support of his coalition partners and his own party is shaking. He could have 1% support of the population, but as long as his party support him a no confidence motion is pointless.

I imagine Gilmore heard either late yesterday or early this morning about the comments that the Daily Mail published today in relation to David Drumm's conversation with Cowen.

Up to now, the FF members were aware/supportive of the Seanie Fitz thing, but today's revelations are another level altogether, so I reckon Gilmore is taking this specific opportunity when suspicion of Cowen within FF is likely to be at its highest.

The weekend will either or make or break FF IMO - if the party decide to stick with him, they'll be OK. But if any more papers have their hands on any further after-dinner gossip, it'll be curtains.

OK, but I would like to ask, would you be willing to give SF some credit when he finally goes? I say this, because I don't think your party leader (?) will do so.

Dannyboy83

Surprised, it's in their best interests to let FF get the finance bill through.

Doubt Cowen will fall.
At this stage, he could kill the firstborn of every family in 2011 and still somehow survive -"I don't accept that, nobody advised me that killing the firstborn was going to be a bad idea!, I have done nothing wrong!"

yosemite_sam

steelcityblues wrote: »

Once again lagging behind SF and the Independents.

They are not ruthless enough!

Anyone see our Obama from Castlebar?

Einhard

zig wrote: »

Rant time...This is honestly becoming a joke at this stage. We are talking about the leaders of our country here, if this motion fails then anyone who has ANYTHING to do with FF should be completely ashamed of themselves. It will be a clear statement that none of these TDs have any interest in the good of the country, and have only the interest of sorting out their own little private mess. Itd be one thing if they genuinely believed Cowen was a good leader but they dont so they would be selling themselves out at this stage if the motion fails.
Absolute disgrace the lot of them.

That's to assume that Cowen leaving now would be a good thing for the country which, much as I dislike FF and wish them removed from office for a long time, I don't think to be the case. Were Cowen to leave, it would result in political instability, which could well affect market sentiment towards Ireland. The government would likely fall as a result, before the Finance Bill was passed through all stages. I want Cown and FF gone as much as the next person, but after 13 years of suffering them in power, I'm willing to wait another 3 months to see the back of them. There's nothing really to be gained by removing Cowen, and by extension the government, now, and there's potentially a good deal to lose. So, I hope he hobbles on for a few months, passes the Finance Bill (thus leaving the next government with a clean slate), holds the election in March, and FF get wiped out in the polls.

Biggins

The main problem now for FF is that NO upcoming new leader wants to be the new head while next leading their party into a forth coming election that ALL know will be decimating to the organisation.
No one in FF wants to put their head on the block pre-election.
Afterwards... sure there will be a two/three ring fight for head of the org' but presently as Cowen is as good as a sacrificial lamb as any, for the pasting they are going to get (to some degree). Regardless of Cowens antics he's still wanted by some, to be the caretaker of the Org till election time.

steelcityblues

yosemite_sam wrote: »

Anyone see our Obama from Castlebar?

Being worked over in the laboratory!

Mr.Micro

I very much doubt if the FF/Greens will lose the confidence vote as they are terrified of the General election. FF are in a quandary in that Cowen is not going to go and if the Government wins the vote then he will be impossible to shift and they are stuck with the buffoon as their leader. I am still not sure that an election will be called in March as excuses will be paraded out to delay a GE. Not sure the move by Labour is wise and will backfire IMO and prolong the tenure of this disastrous Government.

Leiva

Cowen shouldn't be putting his appraisal to his Ministers he should be going to the Public .

We will soon tell him what we think .;)

M.

56lcd

can someone please assure me that when biffo is ostracised that there is no danger that coughlan will be in charge for even a nanosecond

Mr.Micro

56lcd wrote: »

can someone please assure me that when biffo is ostracised that there is no danger that coughlan will be in charge for even a nanosecond

:eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:

Darsad

56lcd wrote: »

can someone please assure me that when biffo is ostracised that there is no danger that coughlan will be in charge for even a nanosecond

That would be the natural order of things I would have thought !

I wonder what odds you would get on Sarah Coughlan accepting the Shamrock from Mary Palin in the White House in a couple of years !

darkman2

Labour have made an imature and silly decision here. Fianna Fáil members will rally around the party now. The Government will win the confidence vote. There is nothing in law saying the Government has to go to the country this year. They may well be emboldened by a confidence vote and may have new drive under a new leader.

A silly, imature, childish thing to do IMO. Reinforces my belief that none of the other small parties like Labour are suitable for Government. I thought Labour might be but not now. This shows a distinct lack of judgement.

BlaasForRafa

gambiaman wrote: »

Yeah but the SF/Technical grouping would not have got their NC motion heard till March I believe.

Morelike FG wrongfooted by Labour again.

Labour are pulling a stunt because the "Gilmore Gale" is rapidly running out of puff.

Biggins

darkman2 wrote: »

Labour have made an immature and silly decision here. Fianna Fáil members will rally around the party now. The Government will win the confidence vote. There is nothing in law saying the Government has to go to the country this year. They may well be emboldened by a confidence vote and may have new drive under a new leader.

A silly, immature, childish thing to do IMO. Reinforces my belief that none of the other small parties like Labour are suitable for Government. I thought Labour might be but not now. This shows a distinct lack of judgement.

I think the reasoning is that maybe once again the Greens will be placed with their backs against the wall.
Will they vote with the FF gang this next time round yet again or will they in the face of what the public wants, finally, finally give the country the election they are asking for?
If its even partially to force the Greens off the fence or see if they will find some back-bone for once and not just think of themselves (no matter what way they spin their trying to hang on, the majority of the public doesn't support them), the motion of no confidence will give them one final opportunity to win back even a slither of dignity in the eyes of some of the electorate.
...And if they go for that, for the sake of their members that will still stand for re-election, they know every vote gained back might count indeed.

Labour, FG and SF know all this and right now its all gamesmanship and one trying to force the others hand.

TheGodBen

darkman2 wrote: »

Fianna Fáil members will rally around the party now.

Yes, they'll rally around Brian Cowen. This is what Labour wants, Brian Cowen leading FF into the election will do them more damage than having someone else in the role, especially after the revelations this week.

The Government will win the confidence vote. There is nothing in law saying the Government has to go to the country this year.

There's the 3 outstanding by-elections that will cause the government to lose their majority, and the Greens want out as soon as their legislation is passed.

They may well be emboldened by a confidence vote and may have new drive under a new leader.

The Greens and Independents wont support a new FF Taoiseach in this term. Once Cowen falls, the whole house of cards will collapse.

gandalf

It is a quite clever move by Labour in forcing all the FF TD's (including the ones apparently opposed to Cowen) & the Greens to back the Government and ergo their current leader Brian Cowen and when the election does come it is going to be harder for those TD's and Greens to distance themselves from that pariah.

I am not sure when the next poll will be conducted but given the recent Cowen stories and Ivan Callely today I think FF could dip further. I wonder how many of their backbench TD's will lose their seats based on the last few days in the General Election.

sligopark

How does anyone have confidence in this Labour Monkey - a chap who helped the country sell off its sovereignty to a federal superstate who stpped in so force us, the taxpayer, bail out their bigger banks and their currency, and who stood behind his wife whilst she raped her local community to overpay for the land to extend their school.

Eamon Gilmore is FF lite.

We need reform not another elitist monkey in power.

Mr.Micro

gandalf wrote: »

I am not sure when the next poll will be conducted but given the recent Cowen stories and Ivan Callely today I think FF could dip further. I wonder how many of their backbench TD's will lose their seats based on the last few days in the General Election.

Which is why they would postpone the GE until 2011 especially if emboldened by winning a no confidence vote. Labour is playing a risk strategy when there was no need to do so.

Killer Pigeon

This is a Motion of No Confidence against the government, not specifically against Brian Cowen. Personally I think it was a stupid idea to call such a motion (even though the intentions were good) and it's only going to strengthen FF's resolve. FF will take their mind off the leadership question which has befallen them and unite in concentrating their efforts in defeating the motion. I believe FF will defeat the motion (they still have a sizable amount of support in the Dáil) and their time in government will only be prolonged, unfortunately. The opposition should have stayed distant and let FF break apart itself.

later12

The idea of a sick Brian Lenihan (for example) leading the Fianna Fáil campaign into the 2011 election could do Labour or Fine Gael far more electoral harm than Brian Cowen leading them into it.

I'm not exactly sure of Eamon Gilmore can actually be pronounced clinically stupid now, or what, but it looks likely.

jimmycrackcorm

Another pointless waste if time. I think the motivation is solely for labour to show sinn fein up after the suggestion that they would make the call.

sligopark

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Another pointless waste if time. I think the motivation is solely for labour to show sinn fein up after the suggestion that they would make the call.

and after Caoimhin stole the limelight from FF Sinn Fein lite university boy Eamon ...

Devilman40k

I'm 50-50 on this, on one hand its a foolish move on Gilmores part, he could make FF rally around each other and strengthen thier resolve. However....it could keep Cowen as Taoiseach...and thereby weaken FF in a GE. Cowen is about as approachable as nuclear waste politically now and having him as leader will cause people to flood to the opposition! If the polls are correct now if I was in FF I would go into hiding when the next set are produced!

bmaxi

Yes, maybe the mods could amend the thread title. This is not a vote of no confidence in Cowen, hands a get out to Government supporters.

angeleyes

Mr.Micro wrote: »

I very much doubt if the FF/Greens will lose the confidence vote as they are terrified of the General election. FF are in a quandary in that Cowen is not going to go and if the Government wins the vote then he will be impossible to shift and they are stuck with the buffoon as their leader. I am still not sure that an election will be called in March as excuses will be paraded out to delay a GE. Not sure the move by Labour is wise and will backfire IMO and prolong the tenure of this disastrous Government.

Totally agree with this. I think Fine Gael were not wrong footed but were correct in saying it wasn't a good move.

SF did the right thing in no confidence in Brian Cowen as it would give a chance for rebel backbenchers to vote/stab him and get rid of him and then the Govt would collapse.

Ah politics - such a dirty game.

supersean1999

i know this is off topic but dont think its to early to set a thread up. what would peoples rough gussing be as to seats in election, i know polls say ff on 14% and fg 35 etc, but how would that work out in seats,thanks

the groutch

pretty much forcing FG a table a motion of no confidence on Tuesday, because with SF & Labour having motions ready to be tabled, if FG don't act they will be seen as being nearly as culpible as the Greens/Inds in propping up this government

Einhard

darkman2 wrote: »

Labour have made an imature and silly decision here. Fianna Fáil members will rally around the party now. The Government will win the confidence vote. There is nothing in law saying the Government has to go to the country this year. They may well be emboldened by a confidence vote and may have new drive under a new leader.

A silly, imature, childish thing to do IMO. Reinforces my belief that none of the other small parties like Labour are suitable for Government. I thought Labour might be but not now. This shows a distinct lack of judgement.

Killer Pigeon wrote: »

This is a Motion of No Confidence against the government, not specifically against Brian Cowen. Personally I think it was a stupid idea to call such a motion (even though the intentions were good) and it's only going to strengthen FF's resolve. FF will take their mind off the leadership question which has befallen them and unite in concentrating their efforts in defeating the motion. I believe FF will defeat the motion (they still have a sizable amount of support in the Dáil) and their time in government will only be prolonged, unfortunately. The opposition should have stayed distant and let FF break apart itself.

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Another pointless waste if time. I think the motivation is solely for labour to show sinn fein up after the suggestion that they would make the call.

I think people are being somewhat naive when they state that the no confidence motion will cause FF to circle the wagons to protect Cowen- that's entirely the point! Well, part of the point anyway. It's a win/win situation for the Opposition, especially for the proposers, Labour. If the motion is passed, then the government collapses and there is an immediate election. Win for Labour. If, however, as is expected, FF put their differences aside and rally around Cowen, all FF TDs will be tainted by their support for the man. Already the election strategy of many FF TDs is to distance themselves as much as possible from Cowen. If they are forced to vote confidence in him then that strategy goes out the window, and they all become linked as supporters of the most toxic taoiseach in the history of the state. Again, win for Labour and the Opposition. Indeed, I'd wager that the second scenario is the one Labour prefers. It damages all FF TDs rather than just their leader, and it means that the government can pass an unpopular Finance Bill before hobbling to a massive defeat in the general election. All in all, it's quite a clever move by Labour. They win whatever the outcome of the vote. One might complain that they're playing politics, but that's exactly what they're there to do.

Killer Pigeon

Einhard wrote: »

I think people are being somewhat naive when they state that the no confidence motion will cause FF to circle the wagons to protect Cowen- that's entirely the point! Well, part of the point anyway. It's a win/win situation for the Opposition, especially for the proposers, Labour. If the motion is passed, then the government collapses and there is an immediate election. Win for Labour. If, however, as is expected, FF put their differences aside and rally around Cowen, all FF TDs will be tainted by their support for the man. Already the election strategy of many FF TDs is to distance themselves as much as possible from Cowen. If they are forced to vote confidence in him then that strategy goes out the window, and they all become linked as supporters of the most toxic taoiseach in the history of the state. Again, win for Labour and the Opposition. Indeed, I'd wager that the second scenario is the one Labour prefers. It damages all FF TDs rather than just their leader, and it means that the government can pass an unpopular Finance Bill before hobbling to a massive defeat in the general election. All in all, it's quite a clever move by Labour. They win whatever the outcome of the vote. One might complain that they're playing politics, but that's exactly what they're there to do.

There's one flaw is their plan though, what if Brian Cowen resigns before the motion of no confidence is voted upon? Then FF can rally support around another individual, like Micheál Martin (or someone else). Really that's the only way FF could possibly survive for a little longer.

gandalf

Killer Pigeon wrote: »

There's one flaw is their plan though, what if Brian Cowen resigns before the motion of no confidence is voted upon? Then FF can rally support around another individual, like Micheál Martin (or someone else). Really that's the only way FF could possibly survive for a little longer.

Yes but there is one flaw with that. Not one of the serious contenders want to take the reins before an out and out spanking in the next General Election. Also Michael Lowry has said if Cowen is no longer the leader he will not support the Government. If there is a change in leadership then I would say there is a very good chance that it will cause the collapse of the whole rotten deck of cards.

Liam Byrne

gandalf wrote: »

Yes but there is one flaw with that. Not one of the serious contenders want to take the reins before an out and out spanking in the next General Election. Also Michael Lowry has said if Cowen is no longer the leader he will not support the Government. If there is a change in leadership then I would say there is a very good chance that it will cause the collapse of the whole rotten deck of cards.

The amount of them jumping ship seems to indicate that they know their gravy train is pulling into its final station, and their last chance to swan off with undeserved massive pensions is just giving them an added incentive.

The collective "keep FF together at all costs" so that they all get their slice of the cash is being abandoned for an "every man for himself" philosophy, which shows where their "loyalty" always was......if they're not getting a massive payoff while being supported while spouting the "it was Lehman's / it was everyone on the island / I don't accept that" rubbish then they're abandoning ship while they can, and in the process avoiding being answerable to the voters for their treasonous support of sickening policies and condoning of corruption.

ilovesleep

Gandalf, i hope you're right about that if there is a change of leadership it will take the whole lot down.

What if clown resigns and passes leadership to someone else? Rumour has it O'cuiv may take over as leader of FF. If this is the case FF may do ok for the election. I hope I'm wrong.

gandalf

ilovesleep wrote: »

Gandalf, i hope you're right about that if there is a change of leadership it will take the whole lot down.

What if clown resigns and passes leadership to someone else? Rumour has it O'cuiv may take over as leader of FF. If this is the case FF may do ok for the election. I hope I'm wrong.

I do not see Cowen resigning unless something really serious comes out in the papers tomorrow or Sunday. And if that happens then I feel the Government comes down is the likely outcome.

As for O'Cuiv I would say he would be a disaster as leader of FF and would make no difference at all to the spanking that FF will get in the next election. I certainly don't see him being a major vote getter in the big urban areas.