Leinster v Saracens Sat 15th Jan 1.30pm KO

[Jackass]

Round five of the Heineken Cup pool phase, and Leinster face into their final two pool games knowing that victory is all within their own grasp, and the pool is now theirs to lose.

Leinster sit on top of pool 2 with 3 wins from their opening 4 games, with a try bonus point picked up at home to Racing Metro and a losing bonus point picked up away to Clermont. Crucially, these bonus points mean that in the event of a tie after round six, Leinster will already finish above Clermont based on their head to head record (Leinster gaining 5 points overall from the had to head, Clermont only getting 4 overall) and unless Racing manage to put at least 4 tries on Leinster and deny Leinster a losing bonus point in Paris, Leinster would remain higher based on the head to head record also.

Already 5 points clear at the top of the table with 14 points and 2 games remaining, the bonus points effectively act as an extra overall point for Leinster in the group.

Clermont face Racing Metro at home in round 5, and should the home side seal perhaps an expected win and Leinster can replicate the feat against Saracens at the RDS, Leinster will top pool 2 with a game to spare.

The only way Leinster can now lose the pool is for Clermont to seal two bonus point victories over Racing and away to Saracens and Leinster lose one of their remaining games without picking up a bonus point along the way in either game, or if Racing secure bonus point victories away to Clermont and at home to Leinster, without Leinster getting a bonus point in the loss or over any win against Saracens.

In truth though, the likely result is that regardless of who wins in the Stade Michilan, there is unlikely to be a four try bonus point, and as such, a win against Saracens at home would more than likely put Leinster through.

On the fitness front, injury concerns lay over Jamie Heaslip (ankle), Cian Healy (hamstring) & Johnathan Sexton (calf), but all are expected to be given a clean bill of health ahead of Saturdays encounter, leaving Joe Schmidt with a full deck to pick from, barring long term injuries to Stan Wright & Rob Kearney.

Leinster endured one of the worst injury crisis' in many years at the early part of the season, but with Kevin McLoughlin and Luke Fitzgerald coming back into action seemingly unscathed, it's a massive boost to the selection options at Schmidt's disposal.

Also bolstering the options has been the meteoric rise of Fergus McFadden this season. McFadden has featured on and off in the Leinster team over the last couple of seasons, but given the injury count in the back line of Leinster, he was thrown in at the deep end, starting away to Clermont in the unfamiliar position of left wing, but he has excelled in that roll since.

Eoin O'Malley started the same game and again has given Schmidt valid alternative options in the backline, and in the forwards Dominic Ryan has burst into the squad with some blistering and massively physically imposing displays already this season, and Rhys Ruddock has proved to be a valid option also.

Lastly, Richardt Strauss and Sean O'Brien have both been in scintillating form this season, taking advantage of opportunities sent their way after injuries gave them a run of games.

In light of this, I would expect a very confident Leinster to take to the field on Saturday, and despite a very shaky start to his tenure, Schimdt really seems to have the troops rallying around him at this point and Leinsters organisation, aggression, defence, and most notably license to thrill, have been the hallmarks of the Schmidt era since, and Leinster have rarely been more enjoyable to watch. Let's just hope over-confidence or even complacency doesn't creep into camp and that fans can keep their feet on the ground and support rather than expect when the team comes onto the paddock.

Prediction: Saracens are out of the group, but unlike French sides, English teams don't do friendlies and are certainly very serious about their rugby and very proud also. They will be hurting from their close home defeat earlier in the groups, and they'll be sniffing revenge and looking to spoil Leinsters party. But the RDS has never been a nice place to visit for most teams, and Saracens will be up against it when facing a team oozing confidence and class at the moment. Leinster to rise to the occasion and seal the group in round 5, with other results going their way.

Predicted team:

1. Healy
2. Strauss
3. Ross
4. Cullen
5. Hines
6. O'Brien
7. Jennings
8. Heaslip

9. Boss
10. Sexton
11. McFadden
12. D'Arcy
13. O'Driscoll
14. Horgan
15. Nacewa

16. Harris-Wright
17. Van Der Merwe
18. Newland
19. Toner
20. McLoughlin
21. Reddan
22. Berne
23. Fitzgerald

It's going to be a physical battle, and as such, all the big boys are picked in the pack. Jennings' form has been excellent of late, and Sean O'Brien has been the player of the season so far for Leinster, with Jamie Heaslip as always being superb at 8. In the second row, the brute physicality of Hines and leadership and work rate of Cullen is a strong pairing and in the front row, Healy brings the disruptive and ball carrying option, along with Strauss, and Ross has been holding the scrum superbly so far this season. All in all, it's an extremely good, physical pack, with great support on the bench.

In the backs, Boss starts, again for his physical presence, but also his ability to break and strong defense will keep the Saracens back-row honest, and Sexton will hopefully be fully fit to guide the ship in the right direction. No need to mention the pairing of D'Arcy and O'Driscoll, who seem to have rediscovered their love of the beautiful game again this season.

In the back 3, Horgan is playing the rugby of his life and McFadden is just undroppable at present. Fitzgerald will need to win the jersey back. Nacewa has been on fire at full-back and I'm not sure the team would be any different if Kearney was available.

Very strong Leinster bench, with the firepower of Fitzgerald, the game management of Berne and the quick ball of Reddan to call upon in the backs, with the power of McLoughlin, the specialist lineout option of Toner, and the steadying scrummaging of Van Der Merwe in the forwards. Newland is a weak spot at tighthead for the Leinster bench, and Harris-Wright is a solid back-up hooker who will hopefully get an opportunity to pick up more Heineken Cup experience later in the game, preferably with the result all but wrapped up.


.......................................P...W...D..L....PTF...PTA...DIF.....TF.....TA....TB.....LB......PTS
1 Leinster ________________4...3...0...1...100....73.....27......10......5......1......1.......14
2 ASM Clermont Auvergne __4...2...0...2.....62....63.....-1........6......6.....0.......1........9
3 Racing Métro 92_________4...2...0....2....76....87.....-11......6......8.....0.......1........9
4 Saracens_______________4...1...0....3.....73....88.....-15.....5......8.....0........2.......6

I would be ok with Heaslip taking a break from this if his injury isn't completely and totally clear. SOB to 8, McLaughlin at 6 and Jennings at 7. No weakness there in that backrow. Ryan or Ruddock on the bench would earn my full confidence too.

I agree with your selection re McFadden and Fitz, just don't think Fitz is near full sharpness yet, and McFadden has done enough to keep his place imo, would be very harsh on him not to feature.

Team picks itself otherwise, only area of weakness on the bench is at 2 and 3, with 2 not up to HEC standard yet imo, and 3 a waste of space.

durkadurka

I'd say your squad is 100% correct, but i think fitz will get ahead of McFadden.

Hopefully a solid win then we can push onto racing and go for a home qf

SomeFool

I think this will be a comfortable BP win for Leinster. Sarries are not a great European side by any stretch, Farrell is probably too young/inexperienced to make them a threat. Would love to see BOD skin Henson too

irishbucsfan

Henson won't be playing at all. Saracens have able replacements anyway.

I think Heaslip might miss out. I think we'll see Ryan/Ruddock start (McLoughlin has 1 game against a weakened Connacht team, I'd prefer to see the in form players starting, as much as I love Locky).

Boss at scrum half would be a relief after Reddan's catastophe last weekend.

PhatPiggins

Kidney will want Fitzgerald to start at 15 for both games and Schmidt seems to rate him there anyway.

McFadden doesn't deserve to be but he will be dropped as they'll want Nacewa's experience on the pitch.

danthefan

I very much hope Kidney doesn't try to interfere in selection for a HEC game.

Sangre

I think if FitzGerald walks onto the team ahead of McFadden then McFadden should make the smart career move and start looking to ply his trade elsewhere. If form like his isn't rewarded now then it will never be.

Gracelessly Tom

Sangre wrote: »

I think if FitzGerald walks onto the team ahead of McFadden then McFadden should make the smart career move and start looking to ply his trade elsewhere. If form like his isn't rewarded now then it will never be.

Whoa! Lets wait for the team announcement first before we start urging players to leave. IMO McFadden will keep his place, even if not BOD and D'Arcy ain't getting any younger so if not this year next season will see him nail down a starting spot.

Gracelessly Tom

Personally I see Leinster getting a bonus point win out of this one.

As with previous posters I think Heaslip being rested wouldn't be a bad thing if the injury ain't 100%. Ryan or McLaughlin or Ruddock are all more than capable of doing a job in the back row.

Shame Venter can't have another rant and/or go slow interview!:D Great viewing.

CouchSmart

Heaslip never looked fit on Friday. I'm hoping if he's not right he's given the night off. SOB can definitely do the job at 8 and we've good cover in the backrow so we shouldn't risk a player we'll need down the line.

Wouldn't be surprised to see Healy start on the bench, seems to be Schmidt's tactic, Heinke starts the first weekend, Healy the second. If he's not 100% this could affect the decision too.

Hopefully Sexton is OK. Niggly injuries really seem to affect his game, especially place kicking.

Not to be overly confident but I can't see past a Leinster win. I'd be surprised if we manage to pull away though. Scoreline something along the lines of 19 - 9

irishlad_85

I shake my head every time Clint Newland is brought onto the pitch

Quint2010

Leinster should win with a bonus point. They will need to beat Racing away to get a home QF

Gracelessly Tom

irishlad_85 wrote: »

I shake my head every time Clint Newland is brought onto the pitch

Maybe he needs to be given a chance, Stan didn't exactly set the world on fire when he first arrived.

But I'm not disagreeing with you, he ain't up to it at the minute.

irishlad_85

Yeah Stan proved us all wrong but Newland has been brought over on a short term contract and he has the look a guy that's just happy to be on a bit of a holiday in Ireland for 9 months or however long his contract is.

Anyway, I'm predicting us to win fairly comfortably on Saturday if the weather alright. We've been a bit off the boil int he last two matches but we all know what happens when the HC weekends come around.

danthefan

Quint2010 wrote: »

Leinster should win with a bonus point. They will need to beat Racing away to get a home QF

I hate this ****e :rolleyes:

When was the last time Saracens conceded a 4 try BP?

Sangre

danthefan wrote: »

I hate this ****e :rolleyes:

When was the last time Saracens conceded a 4 try BP?

I don't expect a bonus point but Saracens are out of the competition so two teams could show up: (1) a team vying for revenge or (2) a team whose heart isn't in it and who are focusing on GP. If its latter then a bonus point win is very doable.

If they are going to concede a bonus anywhere, playing Leinster at home is where you are most likely to give one away.

GiftofGab

Sangre wrote: »

I think if FitzGerald walks onto the team ahead of McFadden then McFadden should make the smart career move and start looking to ply his trade elsewhere. If form like his isn't rewarded now then it will never be.

Sure I think McFadden said before that he'll leave it until January to decide his future. Hate to see him leave but if he doesn't start games like this on his current form, he'll start to get a bit pi*sed off and may look elsewhere.

I wonder how much influence kidney has with Leinster? Schmidt has to manager the club to win titles and make it as profitable as possible, he shouldn't have to listen to Kidney

danthefan

Sangre wrote: »

I don't expect a bonus point but Saracens are out of the competition so two teams could show up: (1) a team vying for revenge or (2) a team whose heart isn't in it and who are focusing on GP. If its latter then a bonus point win is very doable.

If they are going to concede a bonus anywhere, playing Leinster at home is where you are most likely to give one away.

I fully expect Saracens to turn up and give it 100%, it's not really in the "culture" of the club to lie down and die, if Venter has done one thing for them in his time there.

Sangre

I think McFadden was definitely underused by Cheika and mostly consigned to games where the big names weren't playing. His stock seems on the up with Schmidt though.

Quint2010

danthefan wrote: »

I hate this ****e :rolleyes:

When was the last time Saracens conceded a 4 try BP?

well Leinster came within a whisker of getting one at home to Claremont so another performance like that and they will definately get one.

durkadurka

I'd take a 6-5 win anyhow.

You can't play for a bp. You have to win first and then see what happens.

PhatPiggins

Quint2010 wrote: »

well Leinster came within a whisker of getting one at home to Claremont so another performance like that and they will definately get one.

The answer to his question is not since the opening round of the AP in September which is the only one they've conceded all season in all competitions.

Sarries are very difficult team to break down talk of a BP being a banker is naive.

Gracelessly Tom

danthefan wrote: »

I hate this ****e :rolleyes:

When was the last time Saracens conceded a 4 try BP?

In fairness this is a good point, they've only conceded one this year (and that was in November in the LV Cup). Mind you they did concede three tries against Sale two weeks ago and Sale are no great shakes.

Gracelessly Tom

PhatPiggins wrote: »

The answer to his question is not since the opening round of the AP in September which is the only one they've conceded all season in all competitions.

Sarries are very difficult team to break down talk of a BP being a banker is naive.

Forgot about the LI game at the start of the year, but they did concede one to Gloucester in the LV. Granted it's not a great competition but they fielded a strong team that day.

irishlad_85

I think Sarries will be tough to break down because they do have a strong starting pack if at full strength, but they are weak in the backs and if the weather is dry we should be able to find the gaps out wide. We are due a bonus point win, i think if we get a couple of tries before 50/60 minutes they'll really go for the jugular. Looking forward to seeing SO'B running at young Farrell. He will definitely be targetted.

PhatPiggins

Gracelessly Tom wrote: »

Forgot about the LI game at the start of the year, but they did concede one to Gloucester in the LV. Granted it's not a great competition but they fielded a strong team that day.

Forgot about that comp, but the LV is more like 7's then the XV man code.

Come to think of it Leinster don't exactly cough up many four try BP losses either. Might be a low scoring one.

thomond2006

Leinster win surely?

Gracelessly Tom

thomond2006 wrote: »

Leinster win surely?

Should be! But you never know, remember Bath a few years ago did a job in the RDS and LI as well.

CouchSmart

Schmidt not settled on Fitzgerald role:

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/sport/2011/0111/1224287234863.html

toomevara

thomond2006 wrote: »

Leinster win surely?

Should be comfortable enough I'd imagine. Saracens have been very dour this season. Incidentally keep an eye on young outhalf Owen Farrell in the Sarries ranks. He's the son of RL legend and coach Andy Farrell and has been going well in the 10 berth for the past few games. Although with Sarries having recently signed Hodgson from Sale for next season he may revert back to his original position of centre.

durkadurka

toomevara wrote: »

Should be comfortable enough I'd imagine. Saracens have been very dour this season. Incidentally keep an eye on young outhalf Owen Farrell in the Sarries ranks. He's the son of RL legend and coach Andy Farrell and has been going well in the 10 berth for the past few games. Although with Sarries having recently signed Hodgson from Sale for next season he may revert back to his original position of centre.

Andy Farrell can't be that old surely? Didn't England sign him a few years ago to play and it was a disaster?
Edit:
Bloody hell, on wikipedia it says andy is 35 and Owen is 19!!

toomevara

durkadurka wrote: »

Mike Farrell can't be that old surely? Didn't England sign him a few years ago to play and it was a disaster?

Oh aye born in 1991, already played for England U16/u18, he's the ripe old age of 19. As for Andy; RL legend, superb player, arguably parachuted into one of the worst England teams of recent years and never really made the leap to the 15 man code, although in fairness he , by no means, embarrassed himself and did well at club level for Sarries. The expectation was just insane, and also he was bedevilled by injuries, arguably coming to the end of his career. had he made the switch a couple of seasons earlier his impact would have been greater imo.

PhatPiggins

35 and 19 :eek: Bloody hell them league boys start young. Farrell was unlucky with injuries and they had no idea of his best position, I'm sure he was tried in the backrow when he first switched.

Fantastic league player

CIARAN_BOYLE

irishlad_85 wrote: »

Yeah Stan proved us all wrong but Newland has been brought over on a short term contract and he has the look a guy that's just happy to be on a bit of a holiday in Ireland for 9 months or however long his contract is.

Newland is just the best guy they could get for a few months till Stan Wright is back in contention

He doesn't have to do much, come on and run around and not commit suicide while scrumaging whenever Mike Ross needs a break.

Mike Ross has a lot of game time with Wright out and it must be exhausting for him.

I'm glad he has someone to come on and play for a few minutes to give him a break cause thats Newlands job.

Personally I'd have given the job to one of the lads in the academy but they are even worse now. They are young guys who really aren't ready.

wixfjord

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Newland is just the best guy they could get for a few months till Stan Wright is back in contention

He doesn't have to do much, come on and run around and not commit suicide while scrumaging whenever Mike Ross needs a break.

Mike Ross has a lot of game time with Wright out and it must be exhausting for him.

I'm glad he has someone to come on and play for a few minutes to give him a break cause thats Newlands job.

Personally I'd have given the job to one of the lads in the academy but they are even worse now. They are young guys who really aren't ready.

Good post. Plus in fairness to Newlands he's been ok in the last game or two in scrums.

durkadurka

I wonder should we start breeding BOD now? Pair him up with dan carters little sister or something.

Amy mightn't be too happy but it would be In the national interest. If the rl guys are breeding at 16 they must be miles ahead of us.

molloyjh

GiftofGab wrote: »

Sure I think McFadden said before that he'll leave it until January to decide his future. Hate to see him leave but if he doesn't start games like this on his current form, he'll start to get a bit pi*sed off and may look elsewhere.

I wonder how much influence kidney has with Leinster? Schmidt has to manager the club to win titles and make it as profitable as possible, he shouldn't have to listen to Kidney

I'd nearly say Kidney should be listening to Schmidt at this stage re Ross, SOB and McFadden. Fair enough we need FB cover but McFadden should be rewarded for his run of form, especially given the last few seasons neglect. I'd be worried about his future with Leinster if he's dropped in this manner. If I were him I certainly wouldn't be too happy with that kind of treatment.

From reading that interview with Schmidt I would say he is looking at either Fitzy or Isa at FB with the other on the bench to come on at 60 mins and leaving Ferg on the wing.

Gracelessly Tom

molloyjh wrote: »

From reading that interview with Schmidt I would say he is looking at either Fitzy or Isa at FB with the other on the bench to come on at 60 mins and leaving Ferg on the wing.

No contest, Isa wins hands down!

Personally I'd go with Isa at 15 and McFadden 11, Fitz on the bench.

almighty1

He cant drop Isa and he cant drop McFadden. They both have been our star performers so far this season.

Luke is just back from injury and cant complain too much if he starts on the bench.

Edit : Tom just in before me with nearly identical post.

Gracelessly Tom

almighty1 wrote: »

He cant drop Isa and he cant drop McFadden. They both have been our star performers so far this season.

Luke is just back from injury and cant complain too much if he starts on the bench.

Edit : Tom just in before me with nearly identical post.

Great minds think alike obviously!!:D

andrewdcs

I reckon Fitz will be on the bench, come on at about 60 for a decent run. Don't think there'll be much ball played though sadly.

Saracens have only a modicum of pride to play for, they'll stick out a half nothing side. Leinster need to be far more awake to the reffing, from the off, Ospreys game was turgid. Weather forecast thinks it could be tipping it down all week, so likely to be a jumper stuffer.

I'm going to go 22 - 9 Leinster.

The Rooster

andrewdcs wrote: »

I reckon Fitz will be on the bench, come on at about 60 for a decent run. Don't think there'll be much ball played though sadly.

Saracens have only a modicum of pride to play for, they'll stick out a half nothing side. Leinster need to be far more awake to the reffing, from the off, Ospreys game was turgid. Weather forecast thinks it could be tipping it down all week, so likely to be a jumper stuffer.

I'm going to go 22 - 9 Leinster.

Saracens had only pride to play for in their last HC match too. They went to Paris and beat Racing 19-14.

Racing took them too lightly and paid a big price.

lologram

I don't think Leinster will take Saracens too lightly, especially given that Leinster could secure a QF berth this weekend.

Clermont are at home to Racing on Friday night, so Leinster could be sure of a QF spot by lunchtime on Saturday.

I think Racing's upcoming fixtures could be interesting for Leinster. Round 6 sees Leinster at Racing on Friday Jan 21st, but Racing play Clermont in the T14 on the following Wednesday. Considering the pool could be a foregone conclusion by then, Racing might play a weakened side vs Leinster. It's speculation I know, but if it plays out like that it could give chances of a home QF a boost.

CouchSmart

Having watched some videos of Fitzgerald's (and Leinster's) tries from the past this week as well as rewatching the game from friday - he looked quite threatening with ball in hand, I have decided I want him to start. Don't really care where, he's just too talented not to be playing. Losing him for a season was a disaster.

</FitzLoveIn>

danthefan

Sold out apparently.

Gracelessly Tom

CouchSmart wrote: »

Having watched some videos of Fitzgerald's (and Leinster's) tries from the past this week as well as rewatching the game from friday - he looked quite threatening with ball in hand, I have decided I want him to start. Don't really care where, he's just too talented not to be playing. Losing him for a season was a disaster.

One game does not a player make. He's talented, there's no question of that, but in all fairness you can't drop McFadden for him, he's the man in possession and it'll take more than one decent display to take him from the jersey.

Isa is untouchable in the selection process. It has been decreed!:)

danthefan

Gracelessly Tom wrote: »

One game does not a player make. He's talented, there's no question of that, but in all fairness you can't drop McFadden for him, he's the man in possession and it'll take more than one decent display to take him from the jersey.

Isa is untouchable in the selection process. It has been decreed!:)

Being part of ML, HEC, Grand Slam winning teams and a Lions test player does though.

PhatPiggins

danthefan wrote: »

Being part of ML, HEC, Grand Slam winning teams and a Lions test player does though.

You either pick on form or you pick on a mix of reputation/form. I know which I prefer but we all know how Irish teams often tend to base their selections.

danthefan

PhatPiggins wrote: »

You either pick on form or you pick on a mix of reputation/form. I know which I prefer but we all know how Irish teams often tend to base their selections.

I agree, I didn't say anything about selection in my post.

roycon

why is horgan untouchable? i dont see why they couldnt play fitz and mcfadden on the wings and nacewa at full back. or even fitz at full back and nacewa and mcfadden on the wings