UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

Whelo79

Senor Frog wrote: »

Ryan hall by sub at 13/2 seems like good value to me .

Have backed it in a triple of :
Hall by sub @13/2.
Thompson by KO/TKO @10/3 .
McGregor to win @ evens.

64/1 ! Ya got to dream

That's a crazy price for Hall. He's a threat every second when it comes to getting in a sub. Do the bookies think it's Uriajh Hall that's fighting?

simongurnick

Should wonder boy be that much of a favourite against Burns? Feel like Burns could ragdoll him a bit. Maybe I'm way off

tinpib

Ya, that Hall by sub at 13/2 is a no-brainer value bet alright.

Mellor

Whelo79 wrote: »

That's a crazy price for Hall. He's a threat every second when it comes to getting in a sub. Do the bookies think it's Uriajh Hall that's fighting?

I don’t understand it at all. The other guy is favourite for the sub.
I presume it’s been spat out of some algorithm that looks at past results.
Or they put lots of weight into pre-fight trash talk. Ilia Topuria was saying he’ll start in 50/50 and sub Hall (no you won’t mate). And that his coach subbed Hall’s coach in 40 seconds. Not really sure who that refers to or who he thinks Halls coach is.

Edit: seems like Felipe Costa, who Hall got his black belt from.

weemcd

Just had a nibble at Hall by sub there. At that price you'd be mad not to. Thanks for sharing lads.

cloudatlas

Who do you follow on youtube for tips and advice?

cloudatlas

Is Dan Hardy generally quite accurate?

weemcd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117678257#Comment_117678257

I think he's very good at breaking down the fights any time I've seen him. He is probably obliged to be a bit 'too' neutral as he wants to promote the fights as much as possible... but he's definitely worth listening to.

smilerf

I think Cyril Gane is very overrated and Lewis is a great price for next week

mailburner

I think Gane will beat Lewis but I'm praying Lewis lands one. I don't think he's overrated though after the beating he gave Volkov who had Lewis beat also.

tinpib

Can't believe the price on Meerschaert tonight, 6.5 on B365. He has penty of losses but usually against high level opponents, but he is always dangerous, especially by sub. His opponent is on a winning streak, does have some losses by sub early in his career. Think Gerald is a great bet and I went by sub/ko/tko on b365 at 9.0 becuase I'm a greedy pig.

weemcd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117815557#Comment_117815557

Brilliant shooting here, congratulations. Didn't have it myself unfortunately.

mailburner

jake paul ko 4/5 I've gone big saver on paul pts 10/1

Woodley isn't a boxer simple as, has more chance than askren had however but it's a payday for him is all imo.

I wish they stopped this circus anyway.

tinpib

Absolutely blessed the Ireland/Azerbaijan game kicks off at 5pm instead of 745pm as it's an early UFC card tonight with first fight starting round 630pm/645pm.

In the main I fancy Brunson at 2.5, I think Till is over rated and you can make excuses for nearly all his UFC wins. Gastelum (Split), Wonderboy(missed weight), Cerone (by KO, but who hasn't KO'ed Cerrone at this stage) and then it's back to journeymen/nobodies for his first fights. He has lost against high quality fighters.

Father time catching up with Brunson but all his losses have been against elite level and he looked rejuvenated recently. So 6/4 is a great price.

Really looking forward to Tom Aspinall, hope we see another early KO. He is only 1.4 though.

I thought Molly McCann was improving but looking at her record now and her 3 fight streak was aganst some of the worst fighters around. It's a coin toss so went with her opponent at 1.91. Wouldn't mind seeing Molly win though, she has blond hair in her UFC photo, it suits her.

Paddy Pimblett finally gets his UFC shot, hope he wins, only 1.62 though.

My other big priced pics are Khali Rountree at 2.4 who again has lost to some elite level fighters, I don't think his opponent is elite.

And in the first fight I thought Dalcha looked value at 2.5, his opponents record isn't great.

tinpib

14 fights tonight which is a lot. Skimmed the card and here are my big priced picks.

As always I automatically take the women's-fight-goes-to-points oddsbooster and there are 4 of them tonight, however I've been jinxed picking women's winners for the last ages.

Emily Whitmire pts 2.5, neither have great records

Pannie Kianzad pts 2.75, she seems to be improving, perhaps Pennington is on the way down.

Mandy Bohm pts 2.87, sadly Lipski just isn't good enough I think.

Erin Blanchfield pts 2.1

Cutelaba always tries to intimidate his opponents when they are announced to the crowd. The problem is that he has a bit of a glass jaw so it is hilarious when he gets KO'ed, which happens quite regualrly. Unfortuntely his opponent Devin Clark only has only 3 KO's out of 12 wins, but I still took the value of 2.3

Carlston Harris evens

However the biggest value of the night is Christos Giagos at 6.5, he has won 6 in UFC and of his 2 losses in UFC 1 was Charles Olivieira. His opponent lost his first UFC fight so is not infallible. Think 6.5 is a huge price, perhaps a whiff of hypetrain off yer man at those prices

mailburner

really like romanov sub at 7/4 most of his wins are by sub and his striking is average for this weight class

think he'll go straight for a takedown

paddy power

mailburner

Jan ko 6/4 pp

jan win

volkov pts

3/1

jan ko

aknalaev ko

volkov pts

13/1

pp

Ankalaev via TKO/KO

Petr Yan via decision

Blachowicz via TKO/KO

13/1

mailburner

duraev sub 13/8

likes subs

mailburner

I'm hoping/thinking there's serious value in colby at 5/2

no doubt both have improved since they first met but it was dead even going into the last round first time out with

the scores after 4 39/37 38/38 37/39

points or ko if if it happens...not sure, he did wobble usman first time out but I think he'll be a little

more patient this time.

backing chandler also just for value at 5/1 for a ko, really just hope he wins tbh and if he gets past the first I think it'll be anyones fight.

rose also but torn between pts or ko maybe ko again at 4/1

mailburner

Rothwell by sub 4/1

khaos pts 11/2

mailburner

Ryan hall by sub 7/4 seems good facing a guy who only wins by sub but 8 sub losses

paddy

Brussels Sprout

Arnold Allen has won his first 8 fights in the UFC including beating Mads Burnell and Sodiq Yuseff.

Dan Hooker's dropping down in weight, which more often than not, doesn't work out too well for fighters. He looked particularly awful on the scales yesterday. He hasn't fought at 145lb in over 4 years and he was 3-3 in the UFC in that division.

Arnold Allen is a alight underdog on Betfair Exchange currently (2.04).

tinpib

Man, I haven't posted on here in 6 months, this thread died a death a bit with the Boards move.

My long awaited big priced picks for tonight, hold onto your knickers there's lots of them:

Cody Durden 4.8, his opponents UFC debut, Cody has experience

Molly McCann on pts 2.3

Paul Craig by sub 4.25, a no brainer no matter who he faces, but his opponent also has lots of sub defeats

Jai Herbert 5.5 his opponenet is ridiculously short

Takashi Sato 5.0, Gunnar is crazy short, has lots of recent defeats too.

Paddy Pimblett on pts 4.33 - he is very short, thought pts was worth a nibble at big odds

Arnold Allen pts 2.87, wins lots of decisions

Aspinell rds 1-2 3.75, was odds boosted, pure hail mary. Head said Volov on pts but I couldn't bet against Tom. I like the chap.

mailburner

craig sub at 4/1

pp have aspinall ko and paddy sub at 11/1

decent value for a small stake

mailburner

I think the price on barbarena to beat matt brown is crazy value at 10/11

barbarena has been ko'd twice, once by luque with 6 seconds left and that fight was anybodys up till that went the distance with

leon and colby also

I really think brown is past it tbh

bloody hell barbarena by a split dec 😮

Rjd2

Interesting that Sterling is 7/2 v Yan in the rematch in 2 weeks.

When they fought last time , Yan was slight fav and while he was up on the judges scorecards, not by much at all when it was stopped.

Yan should be fav for sure, but 7/2 seems very disrespectful towards Sterling.

https://twitter.com/ufcnews/status/1368429552699990017

weemcd

Anyone think Burns is good value at 7/2?

eagle eye

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118854410#Comment_118854410

Yan was way ahead from my viewing of it. It'll be even more one-sided this time around.

smilerf

Yes I'm also going with kz