Severe weather warning for west/north west

mayo.mick

A severe weather formation is heading our way, follow this thread on the weather fourm, http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056118102&page=9 :eek::eek::eek:

astra2000

Sounds bad,I have to give it to these guys they are usually right! Iread thisearlier today and decidedto get all my xmas shopping finished before weekend!!!

Ilovelucy

Could you give a synopsis please - there are 19 pages of stuff to wade through? WOuld appreciate it. Thanks.

Kristopherus

Ilovelucy wrote: »

Could you give a synopsis please - there are 19 pages of stuff to wade through? WOuld appreciate it. Thanks.

Page 9,:rolleyes:

Ilovelucy

Less of the sarcasm - I only asked a plain question. Thanks anyway.

Avns1s

Heres a good synopsis for Thursday compliments of MT:

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

This business about "rain" on Thursday is going to be misleading to many, because it's more likely to be brief showers of various types, breaking out in advance of the strong arctic front that will be (according to present guidance) moving through Ulster during the early morning, east-west across central Ireland by late morning and clearing the south coast by mid-afternoon. Yes, it may rain briefly before this arrives, and when it does arrive there could be very squally showers of hail, ice pellets, rain or snow, with thunder and strong wind gusts. That may be hit or miss and we'll be essentially radar watching and nowcasting that part, I think. A short time after the front passes, northern counties and some western counties will be getting sea effect streamers that will contain hail and snow mostly, can't rule out rain right along the coasts at sea level because the ocean temperatures for a thousand miles of "fetch" will be 8-11 C but these streamers will be fairly powerful and make long inroads possibly as far as Athlone to about Newry from a northwest direction. Remnant flurries from these streamers could arrive further east and south. But it is likely to remain fairly dry behind this front in most of the east and south until later in the outbreak when the wind field changes around to more of an east or southeast fetch.

Someone was asking about the 20-21 Dec dates, those are from my research and it still looks quite likely that any eventual snowstorm may begin on the late 18th or 19th and last into that time frame, so it's basically that event just bigger and better. These energy waves in the research have five to ten day life cycles and so I am always estimating potential time windows based on the most likely timing for Ireland and the U.K. from past analogues. In this case, one past analogue was the strong storm that hit around 29-30 Dec last year. That one tried to push mild air back from the south, ran out of steam and had to circle back around to escape the wrath of Ireland's snow lovers who wanted a cold northeast wind instead. This time, we are working on integrating the two concepts. Stay tuned.

mayo.mick

This fella here seems to have a good grasp of things, http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=69541575&postcount=230
#230 M.T. Cranium
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This may tend to look like just a dry northerly with local wintry showers, but the depth of cold air in this "Greenland express" is the deal maker, and the transfer of the polar vortex southwest across Ireland towards Kerry is likely to turn the wind flow around into more of a southeast or easterly flow by Sunday ... so the main dynamics of this cold spell are likely to be

(a) initial blast of sudden cold, locally heavy snow in north and west, but some brief squally showers elsewhere (Thursday into early Friday)

(b) settling in of deep cold aided by new snow cover, slack winds, clearing skies, and feed from very cold pockets over Britain, possibly giving severe minimum temps (below -12 C) by Saturday morning ... this may continue in the north into Sunday morning.

(c) possible snowfall events of moderate or even heavy amounts, affecting the south and east, as lows form to the south of Ireland and interact with the deep cold in place.

Could also state that the GFS model has been almost routinely losing the plot after 6-8 days with its tendency to allow spurious mild rebounds from the southwest courtesy of deep lows that end up being much further south at event time. In other words, any depictions of sudden breakdowns and thaws have to be treated with caution. Sooner or later, one will happen (the recent mini-thaw was more of an anticylonic interval that was a necessary step in building up the Greenland block). Looking back at past "severe" or epochal type winters, the Greenland high tends to become semi-permanent so we have to factor in that with these synoptics, there has to be a reasonable chance of a long-lasting cold spell. There is even colder air waiting in parts of Russia to move towards Scandinavia and add a bitter continental feed to the mix, and then the North Sea is chilling rapidly thanks to the outpouring of near-freezing water from the Baltic and from rivers running into the North Sea. All the building blocks are in place for some very severe winter weather.

Any sort of responsible probability analysis would say that the chances of disruption from snow in Ireland and the southern U.K. must be higher than normal by a factor of five or even ten to one. But there is nothing quite carved in stone yet. I think the period Sunday to Tuesday is very likely to see snow in parts of Ireland, let's leave it at that for now. Potential amounts would range from slight to very considerable, won't speculate with numbers.

mayo.mick

Latest update on the weather fourm,
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=69555469&postcount=583

astra2000

mayo.mick wrote: »

Latest update on the weather fourm,
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=69555469&postcount=583

Thanks mick you saved me trawling through all the pages looking for mts posts:)

mayo.mick

astra2000 wrote: »

Thanks mick you saved me trawling through all the pages looking for mts posts:)

I follow all his posts, he really seems to know his stuff, rte should have him reading the weather:p there predicting drizzle

mayo.mick

Most recent update,
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=69559261&postcount=716

mayo.mick

met éireann have finely issued a weather warning

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/warnings.asp

mayo.mick

:eek::eek::eek:

mayo.mick

Latest snow predictions from mt here,

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=69562101&postcount=827

Mayo_Boy

Are mayo actually gonna get the Most of this snow/cold severe weather??

mayo.mick

mayo.mick wrote: »

Latest snow predictions from mt here,

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=69562101&postcount=827

Have a look at above link ^^^^^^

mayo.mick

MT's latest update this morning,

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=69568230&postcount=1834

mayo.mick

MT's weather update this evening, seem's to be looking like serious snowfall amounts.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=69580126&postcount=1844

mayo.mick

MT's latest weather update this evening,

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=69597026&postcount=1849

Mayo_Boy

Very light snow showers here in crossmolina, Mayo, but not really worth talking about , I really want it to snow heavy and cover the whole place

Padkir

Mayo_Boy wrote: »

Very light snow showers here in crossmolina, Mayo, but not really worth talking about , I really want it to snow heavy and cover the whole place

I don't, have to spend all christmas week on the roads deliverin heating oil!:(

Mayo_Boy

Padkir wrote: »

I don't, have to spend all christmas week on the roads deliverin heating oil!:(

So does my dad

mayo.mick

M.T Cranium is to be interviewed by matt cooper on today fm "the last word" at 5 this evening.

statto25

mayo.mick wrote: »

M.T Cranium is to be interviewed by matt cooper on today fm "the last word" at 5 this evening.

Was MT on yet? Noel Dempsey is getting a grilling at the minute from Cooper.

mayo.mick

Was on after dempsey, very short interview:mad:

Mayo_Boy

Anybody know if north mayo will see more snow during the night?

mayo.mick

According to sat 24 theres a lot on the way:)

http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=eu&sat=ir&type=loop

Mayo_Boy

mayo.mick wrote: »

According to sat 24 theres a lot on the way:)

http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=eu&sat=ir&type=loop

WOW! hope that all comes this way:D

mayo.mick

Heavy snowfall here now.
M.T's latest update this evening,

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=69616052&postcount=1859

Mayo_Boy

Any more snow for north mayo today or tonight?

Captain Slow IRL

Looking at the meteireann website, we're not going to get any up until thursday but they don't predict after that.

It looks like we're getting a repeat of the last dose of snow, 1 big drop and then nothing. That's assuming the big thaw will be here for Christmas Eve as predicted by meteireann.

Mayo_Boy

Captain Slow IRL wrote: »

Looking at the meteireann website, we're not going to get any up until thursday but they don't predict after that.

It looks like we're getting a repeat of the last dose of snow, 1 big drop and then nothing. That's assuming the big thaw will be here for Christmas Eve as predicted by meteireann.

Hope to god we get more !:p

yop

It hit a balmy -14 this morning at 5am in Castlebar. Its still reading -11. Mental.

Captain Slow IRL

I hit -15.5 going past Beverley Flynn's house!
There was also a good bit of black ice on the N5(is that the road?!) around her house - watch out folks!

ciaran67

Apparently Foxford broke record last night with -17 :eek:

Captain Slow IRL

I was up through Foxford and Castlebar last night, the lowest I seen was -14 around SeasonMaster, it only reached down to -11 in Foxford at the time.

ciaran67

Captain Slow IRL wrote: »

I was up through Foxford and Castlebar last night, the lowest I seen was -14 around SeasonMaster, it only reached down to -11 in Foxford at the time.

Read on another board it was on 2FM

-10 in Crossmolina at 7am while i was defrosting the poor car.

statto25

-10 In Ballinrobe at half seven this morning. Here in galway now and its -6 at the minute.

Captain Slow IRL

According to RTE news there, we've the possiblity of snow tonight and tomorrow morning.

Mayo_Boy

Captain Slow IRL wrote: »

According to RTE news there, we've the possiblity of snow tonight and tomorrow morning.

yes!
I recorded -12 at 8am this morning in crossmolina

Captain Slow IRL

I noticed a few flakes falling there, coming in past Mount Falcon - I wonder what the morning will bring!

ciaran67

Mayo_Boy wrote: »

yes!
I recorded -12 at 8am this morning in crossmolina

Must be a record for Cross Mo!

couple of inches aswell.

Mayo_Boy

Captain Slow IRL wrote: »

I noticed a few flakes falling there, coming in past Mount Falcon - I wonder what the morning will bring!

Nice bit of snow in crossmolina.
Heard ballina is a nightmare, up to 8 inches or somthing:eek:

chelseavera

Anyone heard anything about the approches to Knock airport? Leaving soon to pick people up. Talk of road blocked somewhere between Lahardane and Pontoon. Will the hill leading up to airport be passable?

Starie1975

Hi all,
Heading up to Belmullet on Christmas eve from Galway, has anyone been on the Castlebar to Bangor road? What are the conditions like?
Thanks.

minstrel_boy

chelseavera wrote: »

Anyone heard anything about the approches to Knock airport? Leaving soon to pick people up. Talk of road blocked somewhere between Lahardane and Pontoon. Will the hill leading up to airport be passable?

Keep us posted on lahardane/pontoon road/. Need to go that way on wednesday/thursday evening

Mayo_Boy

Starie1975 wrote: »

Hi all,
Heading up to Belmullet on Christmas eve from Galway, has anyone been on the Castlebar to Bangor road? What are the conditions like?
Thanks.

Well from hearing about it in the last cold spell we've had, it was meant to be treacherous. So I would think its not much better this time round

Starie1975

Mayo_Boy wrote: »

Well from hearing about it in the last cold spell we've had, it was meant to be treacherous. So I would think its not much better this time round

Thanks buddy,

We might have to stay in Galway, that won't go down to good.

Captain Slow IRL

Mayo_Boy wrote: »

Nice bit of snow in crossmolina.
Heard ballina is a nightmare, up to 8 inches or somthing:eek:

I couldn't believe it when I woke up, it was easily 8 inches! If you get a chance, come into town for a look - the Crossmolina/Ballina road is in good condition.

Mayo_Boy

Captain Slow IRL wrote: »

I couldn't believe it when I woke up, it was easily 8 inches! If you get a chance, come into town for a look - the Crossmolina/Ballina road is in good condition.

Just back from Ballina now.
My god there is some depth of snow !:eek:

Captain Slow IRL

It was brutal this morning - 2 vans trying to get up by Coyne tyres and failing miserably!