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Kempton 6.30

  • 09-12-2010 9:58am
    #1
    Nulty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭


    What do you reckon about this race....I reackon Quasi Congaree has a very good chance and that the odds are wrong...on his day hes far more competitive than the odds are suggesting but then his inconsistency is why his odds are so long...

    I cant price up a race but I'd guess at putting him in at around 8/1 or 10/1

    Nulty wrote: »
    Kempton 6.30

    Quasi Congaree 1pt ew & 2pts Win @ 16/1 Bet365

    Hes won 2 races from 19 races - hardly brilliant but it doesn't matter what hes won in the past, its more about can he win this? I think he can, or well at least I think hes a much bigger price than he should be. There are a few in here with solid claims and they are reliable in their performances which makes them entitled to a shorter price. Another reason Quasi is a long price is the fact he blew out in a race involving Lujeanie and Hatta Stream last time out. He can be forgiven that run for the hugely wide trip he took and the way he blew the turn. after his chance was gone he wasn't pushed out so the distance is irrelevant.

    There appears to be a pattern to his performances though. One good run then one bad followed by a good and then another bad run. Having got the bad one out of the way last time he might be relied upon to deliver an effort. Hes run well at the track and Ian Wood has opted not to go with a claimer, which hes done in the past, which suggests to me that he thinks the horse can win off his current mark and I think so too.

    Another encouraging piece of information is that Quasi has gotten the plumb draw in stall 7 and its clear that he likes to be up on the pace so hes positioned to attack that. His back form is very good too. His penultimate start saw him finish 2nd to the inform Anne of Kiev whos form lines are reliable and tested in this thread, and in behind Quasi was next time out winner Mango Music, winner of a Seller yesterday Brandywell Boy and behind him was Hulcote Rose - winner of 2 subsequent handicaps and behind her was Hinton Admiral - winner of a handicap yesterday at Lingfield. In total the horses from that race have contested 12 times and won 5. Thats farly decent form if you ask me. But its not about that - its about the price. Quasi Congaree shouldn't be 16/1 if he decides to perform and but that may be a big if.


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Comments

  • #2
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,972 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    14s on PP, 6 runners. I guess George Baker has to be a big plus as he'll not take it easy.


  • #3
    Nulty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭Nulty


    mike65 wrote: »
    14s on PP, 6 runners. I guess George Baker has to be a big plus as he'll not take it easy.

    Hes the Ryan Moore of November-March. He's 25% in the last two weeks or thereabouts. Bakers a big plus alright.

    It isn't bothering me too much...Wood had Requisite run well yesterday and he drifted from 9s to 12s. He was never a 9/1 shot in the first place but the fav in that race disjointed the odds for the rest of the runners.

    I reckon Quasi Congaree is just suffering at the populatrity of the other runners and mug punters looking for ones or two beside a horses name


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