New Red C poll, Sinn Féin now 3% ahead of Fianna Fáil

PomBear

An opinion poll out tomorrow shows support for Fianna Fáil at its lowest level ever and puts the party in fourth place behind Sinn Féin. The Red C Poll for the Irish Sun shows Fianna Fáil on 13%, a drop of 3% on the last poll almost two weeks ago.
Fine Gael are on 32% per cent, down one, while Labour are also down three to 24%.
The Greens remain unchanged, while support for Sinn Féin has jumped by five points to 16%, putting them in third position.
Independents and others have also seen a rise in support of three points.


http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1202/politics.html


Great to see FF crumbling at the seams, massive boost for SF, I can see them making a progress similar to what the Lib Dems made at the last British elections

whatawaster

Do people not realise sf are economically off-the-wall?

mike65

The Lib Dems are in power with 5 ministries I think.

As for the numbers, SF rise no doubt is bounce from the Donegal SW vote.

flynnlives

FF where at 18% in the last poll.
Its a drop of 5%

And this is before the budget!!

FF are finished

InchicoreDude

Do people not realise sf are economically off-the-wall?

But isnt everybody arguing that we have lost our economic soverignty so what difference does it make???

In the past, Sinn Fein advocated a rise in corporation tax (Think they have gone away from that now) but its strange that that policy could be the same european thinking now!

PomBear

whatawaster wrote: »

Do people not realise sf are economically off-the-wall?

http://www.sinnfein.ie/files/Pre-Budget2010_web.pdf

you should give this a read, some very good ideas.

Sponge Bob

PomBear wrote: »

Great to see FF crumbling at the seams, massive boost for SF, I can see them making a progress similar to what the Lib Dems made at the last British elections

Gerry Adams as leader of the opposition going head to head with Enda, cripes

deise go deo

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Gerry Adams as leader of the opposition going head to head with Enda, cripes

I never even considered that, Gerry Adams as leader of the opposition.
If anyone can do opposition he can.


Cripes indeed, Interesting times we are living in.

Mr.Micro

whatawaster wrote: »

Do people not realise sf are economically off-the-wall?

It matters not....the EU/IMF are running the show and Ireland is like a naughty schoolchild on report having to have a report signed every quarter.

Carrickbhoy

There is no doubt about it SF are on the rise and will do very well in the elections i predict they will win 8-10 seats

Amtmann

If these figures were replicated on election day, allowing for local idiosyncrasies, what would be the likely allocation of seats per party?

Raskolnikov

whatawaster wrote: »

Do people not realise sf are economically off-the-wall?

Compared to Fianna Fáil, who've made the country the laughing stock of the world and have had to go begging the IMF and our "European partners" for help?

They sound like real economic heavyweights

Cavehill Red

FF at 13%

30% down, 13 to go.

A lot done, more to do.

greendom

whatawaster wrote: »

Do people not realise sf are economically off-the-wall?

A bit like Ireland then

charlemont

whatawaster wrote: »

Do people not realise sf are economically off-the-wall?

FF's economic policies have us in the mess we are in, im delighted to see their support drop..

Cavehill Red

I treat the Red C poll as a combined index of corruption and insanity in Ireland.

13% FF vote = 1 in 8 people in Ireland are either corrupt or mad.

stomprockin

whatawaster wrote: »

Do people not realise sf are economically off-the-wall?

lol

bmaxi

Just what the country needs, more O'Snodaighs.

dvpower

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Gerry Adams as leader of the opposition going head to head with Enda, cripes

Very very unlikely.
#votes != #seats.

dlofnep

I expect Sinn Féin to do very well in the next elections. Sinn Féin are the only political party out there actually fighting for something. Sinn Féin pushed for a by-election, Sinn Féin pushed to put the latest fiasco to a vote in the Dáil. The rest of the parties are more than happy to let Fianna Fáil destroy our economy and state.

Amtmann

Interesting analysis of this poll here. Based on the figures, it's predicting that each party will win the following numbers of seats:

Fine Gael: 67

Labour: 48

Sinn Féin: 24

Fianna Fáil: 12

Independents/Others: 15

Greens: 0

puppetmaster

PomBear wrote: »

http://www.sinnfein.ie/files/Pre-Budget2010_web.pdf

you should give this a read, some very good ideas.

"Cap the maximum salary of public servants and employees in
semi-state bodies at four times the entry rate (three times the
average industrial salary) €100,000 – Saves €350 million"

Thats one of the best proposals they have, For sure.
FF have to go and other than the "die hard" faithfull they're finished.

And im Solidly behind the opinion that The idiots that were part of the problem cant be part of the solution, So this includes alot of opposition TD's also. We need new blood, But is filling the Dail with Sinners Looballs the way to do it?

K-9

PomBear wrote: »

An opinion poll out tomorrow shows support for Fianna Fáil at its lowest level ever and puts the party in fourth place behind Sinn Féin. The Red C Poll for the Irish Sun shows Fianna Fáil on 13%, a drop of 3% on the last poll almost two weeks ago.
Fine Gael are on 32% per cent, down one, while Labour are also down three to 24%.
The Greens remain unchanged, while support for Sinn Féin has jumped by five points to 16%, putting them in third position.
Independents and others have also seen a rise in support of three points.


http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1202/politics.html


Great to see FF crumbling at the seams, massive boost for SF, I can see them making a progress similar to what the Lib Dems made at the last British elections

So FF are down 3% as are Labour.

Independents and SF have benefitted.

LOL at the Lib Dems analogy!

K-9

Furet wrote: »

Interesting analysis of this poll here. Based on the figures, it's predicting that each party will win the following numbers of seats:

Fine Gael: 67

Labour: 48

Sinn Féin: 24

Fianna Fáil: 12

Independents/Others: 15

Greens: 0

FG/SF Govt. but it will never happen.

FG/Labour means the opposition benches will be filled by Govt. back benchers!

CrankyCod

I wonder will a block of Fianna Failers come back as a new party, like the old commies did after the break up of the USSR? It's hard to believe these guys will go quietly; most of them are 3rd or fourth generation politicos, the loss of status would be completely unacceptable to them.
I'm trying to think what they would call themselves this time, Tuatha de Danaan?

CoalBucket

whatawaster wrote: »

Do people not realise sf are economically off-the-wall?

As opposed to those economic masterminds FF ?

Ardennes1944

delighted to see Sinn Fein up again to be honest. this will be my first general election being able to vote and im looking forward to putting my pen to paper and supporting them

dlofnep

Furet wrote: »

Interesting analysis of this poll here. Based on the figures, it's predicting that each party will win the following numbers of seats:

Fine Gael: 67

Labour: 48

Sinn Féin: 24

Fianna Fáil: 12

Independents/Others: 15

Greens: 0

I'm a huge Sinn Féin supporter, but I estimate about 8 seats in the next elections.

deise go deo

CrankyCod wrote: »

I wonder will a block of Fianna Failers come back as a new party, like the old commies did after the break up of the USSR? It's hard to believe these guys will go quietly; most of them are 3rd or fourth generation politicos, the loss of status would be completely unacceptable to them.
I'm trying to think what they would call themselves this time, Tuatha de Danaan?

Have tought about that myself, Fianna Óg maybe? We havent seen the last of them but Fianna Fáil as a party may never recover from this, a new start may be the only way forward for their younger members.

Ardennes1944

the important thing though is if sinn fein majorly increase their seats in this election that they cant allow it to slip back down to their current amount again in the next election. it must be something they can maintain and they must make the most of this possible strong position. personally i would rather a sizeable increase for sinn fein and see it maintained more or less over the coming years rather than a huge increase in seats this time round and a strong fluctuation again

Time Magazine

dlofnep wrote: »

The rest of the parties are more than happy to let Fianna Fáil destroy our economy and state.

Yes, that's a perfectly accurate and unbiased description of the other parties :rolleyes:

puppetmaster wrote: »

"Cap the maximum salary of public servants and employees in semi-state bodies at four times the entry rate (three times the
average industrial salary) €100,000 – Saves €350 million"

Thats one of the best proposals they have, For sure.

And watch people of the quality of Patrick Honohan leave for much better-paying jobs the next day. Yeah, great idea. Let delusions of a socialist utopia mean we skimp on regulation and not hire the best people we can possible hire because it saves a few million. Great idea.

Lockstep

Great results if true. Would be nice to see a more major shift in the Irish political landscape.
Doubtless the result of the IMF/Fianna Fáil fiasco combined with Sinn Féins excellent work in the DSW constituency.

Cavehill Red

Time Magazine wrote: »

And watch people of the quality of Patrick Honohan leave for much better-paying jobs the next day. Yeah, great idea. Let delusions of a socialist utopia mean we skimp on regulation and not hire the best people we can possible hire because it saves a few million. Great idea.

I've heard this BS since Jesus was a boy. It doesn't wash. Is Marion Finucane going to go to the BBC if RTE slashed her wages? If she did, would they have her? Would she get her four hour week complete with mid-show fag break? Would they pay her anything close to 80K never mind 800?

As for skimping on regulation, well, I note that overpaying didn't prevent that the past few decades either.

lugha

deise go deo wrote: »

Have tought about that myself, Fianna Óg maybe? We havent seen the last of them but Fianna Fáil as a party may never recover from this, a new start may be the only way forward for their younger members.

Wouldn’t be too quick to write the FF obituary, though I would welcome their demise. It is worth noting that other European countries are also in serious bother as a consequence of cheap credit and presumably, light regulation. FF undoubtedly made things worst, but I am reminded of he economist (?) who said at the time, that the 2007 GE would be a good one to lose. They might have played a blinder in the last three years but would still be deeply unpopular now.

People do forget and within a year will be blaming the next government for their woes. Harney was blasted a few years back for making a similar point, I bet few can recall what the issue was?

At a stretch FG and SF on a good (?) day might make 83+. And that would certainly make our times even more interesting. Polar opposites they may be but FG could hold substantially more ministries and SF would have a chance for a turn on the potty. :P

puppetmaster

Time Magazine wrote: »

And watch people of the quality of Patrick Honohan leave for much better-paying jobs the next day. Yeah, great idea. Let delusions of a socialist utopia mean we skimp on regulation and not hire the best people we can possible hire because it saves a few million. Great idea.

How much Did Patrick Honahans Predecessor get paid? Luck we paid him so much eh?

Pay should be based on performance not how long you've blown the whistle on a heuston platform for...

deise go deo

lugha wrote: »

Wouldn’t be too quick to write the FF obituary, though I would welcome their demise. It is worth noting that other European countries are also in serious bother as a consequence of cheap credit and presumably, light regulation. FF undoubtedly made things worst, but I am reminded of he economist (?) who said at the time, that the 2007 GE would be a good one to lose. They might have played a blinder in the last three years but would still be deeply unpopular now.

People do forget and within a year will be blaming the next government for their woes. Harney was blasted a few years back for making a similar point, I bet few can recall what the issue was?

At a stretch FG and SF on a good (?) day might make 83+. And that would certainly make our times even more interesting. Polar opposites they may be but FG could hold substantially more ministries and SF would have a chance for a turn on the potty. :P

Indeed, but the levels of hatred I have seen for FF speak their own story, The amount of former FF voters who have said 'Never Again'. It may be that they can continue as a party, but it will be a long time before they make up the ground they have lost. I doubt they will be the senior partner in Government foe at least 20 years.

johngalway

I was quite surprised at the poll when I saw it previewed on TV earlier. Actually don't believe FF are that low, in peoples opinion maybe, but when it comes to the rock & hard place of writing preferences and sticking it in the box, 13% won't be accurate.

I welcome their demise, but at the cost of a SF rise, hmmm. Bloody frying pan and fire.

Bottle_of_Smoke

Furet wrote: »

Interesting analysis of this poll here. Based on the figures, it's predicting that each party will win the following numbers of seats:

Fine Gael: 67

Labour: 48

Sinn Féin: 24

Fianna Fáil: 12

Independents/Others: 15

Greens: 0

In soviet eire seats predict you.

Seriously though that method of analysis is ridiculous. It assumes constituencies don't exist ffs. It's the kind of nonsense that had nick clegg saying the 2010 election was gonna be a three horse race where the lib dems ended up getting 9% of the seats!

lugha

deise go deo wrote: »

I doubt they will be the senior partner in Government foe at least 20 years.

Alas, I doubt it. I wouldn't be surprised to see them back at the next election or baring that, the one after. 10 years max in the dog house me thinks.

nordydan

whatawaster wrote: »

Do people not realise sf are economically off-the-wall?

Funniest post of the day.

Bit like the time Hitler said to Himmler, "Watch that Stalin lad. He's a bad lad..."

Bottle_of_Smoke

lugha wrote: »

At a stretch FG and SF on a good (?) day might make 83+. And that would certainly make our times even more interesting. Polar opposites they may be but FG could hold substantially more ministries and SF would have a chance for a turn on the potty. :P

The political differences between them any aren't any greater than those between FG and Labour IMHO.

That said I don't see it happening. I'd say Sinn Fein will get 7 seats. Possible 2 or 3 would resign from the party in response to a coalition with FG. Would risk losing support in the north, perhaps a major split.

I also feel fine gael would rather lose the ministries than their prized position as ''most anti-Sinn Fein party in ireland'' status.

Political suicide for both.

Time Magazine

Cavehill Red wrote: »

I've heard this BS since Jesus was a boy. It doesn't wash. Is Marion Finucane going to go to the BBC if RTE slashed her wages? If she did, would they have her? Would she get her four hour week complete with mid-show fag break? Would they pay her anything close to 80K never mind 800?

I don't give a crap about Marion Finucane. If she does her job badly, nobody cares.

As for skimping on regulation, well, I note that overpaying didn't prevent that the past few decades either.

This is exactly the kind of stupid logic that is persistent in Sinn Féin's thinking.

Yes, the last financial regulator was an absolute disaster. He was stupid and negligent and should have been fired, not given a golden handshake.

Now, let's think about the future. After a brief stint of stupid "light touch" psuedo-neoliberal thinking, we realise the importance of hiring competent regulators. Unlike with Marion Finucane if a regulator does his/her job 1% better, it can literally save the state tens of millions of euro.

After this mess the last thing we should be thinking is that any old regulator will do. After this mess we should be ensuring we get world-class regulators.

It's absolutely bonkers to conclude anything else.

deise go deo

lugha wrote: »

Alas, I doubt it. I wouldn't be surprised to see them back at the next election or baring that, the one after. 10 years max in the dog house me thinks.

Well as long as the current crowd in its leadership have been removed by then it wont be too bad. Still, This will haunt them for years to come I reckon.

Amtmann

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote: »

In soviet eire seats predict you.

Seriously though that method of analysis is ridiculous. It assumes constituencies don't exist ffs. It's the kind of nonsense that had nick clegg saying the 2010 election was gonna be a three horse race where the lib dems ended up getting 9% of the seats!

I've nothing to do with the projected seat numbers, but if you go to the site I linked to, you'll see they have looked at each constituency in detail (specifically here).

PeterIanStaker

I wonder, again, how many Ind's will be ex - FF and Greens?

Also, in a GE, I would like to see Lab make gains, and for the Civil War parties - FF, FG, SF, - to take losses, and for the Greens to cease to exist.

Time Magazine

puppetmaster wrote: »

How much Did Patrick Honahans Predecessor get paid? Luck we paid him so much eh?

Pay should be based on performance not how long you've blown the whistle on a heuston platform for...

If you have a Ph.D. in Economics and you get hired by a good university or bank, you'll start on about €80,000. Do good work for a few years and you can expect to be on about €150,000. When you have thirty years' experience, it's not unusual to earn seven figures. This kind of salary attracts very, very smart people who will run rings around mediocre regulators. Cap salaries at €100,000 and you're left with a scenario where the banks take their pick, and the country is stuck with the left-overs.

High pay doesn't guarantee you won't get a bad regulator. Low pay pretty much guarantees you won't get a good one.

Cavehill Red

Time Magazine wrote: »

I don't give a crap about Marion Finucane. If she does her job badly, nobody cares.

I care, alright. She's paid outrageously excessively in a semi-state body, the very people whose wages you are defending.
She, and all the others in the civil service, the ESB, all the snouts in the trough, need to be introduced to a sharp reality.

Time Magazine wrote: »

This is exactly the kind of stupid logic that is persistent in Sinn Féin's thinking.

Yes, the last financial regulator was an absolute disaster. He was stupid and negligent and should have been fired, not given a golden handshake.

Now, let's think about the future. After a brief stint of stupid "light touch" psuedo-neoliberal thinking, we realise the importance of hiring competent regulators. Unlike with Marion Finucane if a regulator does his/her job 1% better, it can literally save the state tens of millions of euro.

After this mess the last thing we should be thinking is that any old regulator will do. After this mess we should be ensuring we get world-class regulators.

It's absolutely bonkers to conclude anything else.

We TRIED your way. It failed miserably. Paying over the odds only got us the same incompetence as not paying over the odds.

So let's save money and stop paying over the odds in future.

Monty Burnz

whatawaster wrote: »

Do people not realise sf are economically off-the-wall?

They are, but are they worse than Fianna Failure? Only one of those parties has successfully bankrupted a whole country...

seabre

whatawaster wrote: »

Do people not realise sf are economically off-the-wall?

As opposed to the economically sound FF which we all had been voting for?

PeterIanStaker

seabre wrote: »

As opposed to the economically sound FF which we all had been voting for?

Not everyone voted for FF. I never have and never will, and there are many more who'd be the same. This "we" thing is getting old.

Time Magazine

Cavehill Red wrote: »

I care, alright. She's paid outrageously excessively in a semi-state body, the very people whose wages you are defending.
She, and all the others in the civil service, the ESB, all the snouts in the trough, need to be introduced to a sharp reality.

I completely agree. What I disagree with is cutting the pay of the people we need to do a good job. If I'm listening to the radio I don't particularly care if it's Marion or Rachel English or some recent journalism graduate, once they do an okay job. It doesn't matter. I really care about the economy's unemployment rate, though.

We TRIED your way. It failed miserably. Paying over the odds only got us the same incompetence as not paying over the odds.

So let's save money and stop paying over the odds in future.

Let me ask you this question, and answer honestly.

Say we have two choices. One is Mr World Class Regulator who could be hired for €1,000,000 per year and there's a 1% chance of a financial collapse if we hire him. The other is Mr Average Regulator who could be hired for €100,000 per year and there's a 2% chance of a financial collapse if we hire him.

Do you honestly think that hiring the second guy is worth that risk?

Monty Burnz wrote: »

They are, but are they worse than Fianna Failure? Only one of those parties has successfully bankrupted a whole country...

The bankrupting of the nation is a reason to not vote FF - it's not a reason to vote SF.