The Rise of Sinn Fein?

paky

Pierce Doherty is likely to claim victory today in Donegal and Gerry Adams is likely to take Arthur Morgans seat in Co. Louth. This is going to generate alot of positive publicity for Sinn Fein and we are likely to see a ripple effect of support around the country for Sinn Fein. I wreckon Sinn Fein will likely be in some form of Governemnt in the south in the new year. What do you guys think?
Eamonn Gilmore made a fair comment about them been in Governemnt in the next 10 years and I doubht they can be ruled out at this stage as contenders for the next coalition. Its very interesting times. I thought I'd never see the day!

Bottle_of_Smoke

I think they'll make slight gainsd, perhaps 6-8 seats max. I don't think they'd form a government with anyone other than labour and they won't be big enough to form a government this time around.

Though I do think Gerry will get elected, which could generate a lot of publicity and perhaps increased mandate in future elections.

Tipp Man

paky wrote: »

Pierce Doherty is likely to claim victory today in Donegal and Gerry Adams is likely to take Arthur Morgans seat in Co. Louth. This is going to generate alot of positive publicity for Sinn Fein and we are likely to see a ripple effect of support around the country for Sinn Fein. I wreckon Sinn Fein will likely be in some form of Governemnt in the south in the new year. What do you guys think?
Eamonn Gilmore made a fair comment about them been in Governemnt in the next 10 years and I doubht they can be ruled out at this stage as contenders for the next coalition. Its very interesting times. I thought I'd never see the day!

I hope and pray that the day doesnt come in my lifetime or that of my grandchildren and I'm in my early 30's

The last thing we need is a left wing commie government - I would rot in hell before I'd vote for them

Fr Tod Umptious

The selection of Gerry Adams is a sign of sheer deperation from SF

It's saying 'we have no one locally to run for Morgan's old seat so we have to bring in the biggest of the big guns'

They may win a few more seats but will not be part of a GOv, FG and Lab will have enough without them.

paky

Tipp Man wrote: »

I hope and pray that the day doesnt come in my lifetime or that of my grandchildren and I'm in my early 30's

The last thing we need is a left wing commie government - I would rot in hell before I'd vote for them

i wouldnt say commie. sure theyll be in coalition so it may balance out the ideologies. gerry adams is only going for the dail so he can run for president and be there for 2016.
you never know they might parachute in some other strong candidates around the country. they did it in the past and it was very successful. i cant see why they dont do that now? if i was in charge I would

imme

I don't see it OP. They're a very different party in the 'south', as you call it.

I don't see them getting over six seats in the 'south'.

They're almost irrelevant at times.

paky

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote: »

I think they'll make slight gainsd, perhaps 6-8 seats max. I don't think they'd form a government with anyone other than labour and they won't be big enough to form a government this time around.

Though I do think Gerry will get elected, which could generate a lot of publicity and perhaps increased mandate in future elections.

i wouldnt say it would be a matter of sinn fein been big enough but would labour and fine gael be? you've still got fianna fail left overs to contend with and the left wing 'alliance'? its too hard to call but small parties like sinn fein will benefit

the groutch

they'll get 10 seats max, but it will put them in good stead for a coalition with Labour in 2016

Bottle_of_Smoke

paky wrote: »

i wouldnt say it would be a matter of sinn fein been big enough but would labour and fine gael be? you've still got fianna fail left overs to contend with and the left wing 'alliance'? its too hard to call but small parties like sinn fein will benefit

Well I meant labour wouldn't be big enough to form a government with Sinn Fein. I just don't think Sinn Fein would go into power with FG

Dirk Gently

paky wrote: »

Pierce Doherty is likely to claim victory today in Donegal and Gerry Adams is likely to take Arthur Morgans seat in Co. Louth.

Judging from the mood in dub nth west I think you can add Dessie Ellis to that list as well, most likely taking Pat Careys seat.

Bullseye1

I hope not. No interest in their form of politics.

prinz

Tipp Man wrote: »

I would rot in hell before I'd vote for them

This.

FTA69

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote: »

Well I meant labour wouldn't be big enough to form a government with Sinn Fein. I just don't think Sinn Fein would go into power with FG

They went into coalition with the DUP didn't they? Sinn Féin would jump into coalition with anyone, and they'd jettison any semblance of leftist politics if that became possible.

Tipp Man

paky wrote: »

i wouldnt say commie. sure theyll be in coalition so it may balance out the ideologies. gerry adams is only going for the dail so he can run for president and be there for 2016.
you never know they might parachute in some other strong candidates around the country. they did it in the past and it was very successful. i cant see why they dont do that now? if i was in charge I would

Don't discount the commie influence. Just ask Gerry who he would see as his political idiols. I'm sure Fidel features highly

super_furry

Honestly I think they'll do very, very well at the next election because they're the only 'mainstream' party who claim to be offering an alternative. It's a wooly, ill-thought and unfocused alternative, but when they come out and say they're against bail-outs, against the austerity measures and against social welfare and minimum wage cuts, then there's a large section of the voting public that will sit up an pay attention.

Tipp Man

FTA69 wrote: »

They went into coalition with the DUP didn't they? Sinn Féin would jump into coalition with anyone, and they'd jettison any semblance of leftist politics if that became possible.

So if they were so likely to ditch their lefty policies why should anybody vote for them??

Bottle_of_Smoke

FTA69 wrote: »

They went into coalition with the DUP didn't they? Sinn Féin would jump into coalition with anyone, and they'd jettison any semblance of leftist politics if that became possible.

Its a bit different though. Stormont's more of a pretend government really.

I agree leftist politics would go out the window if they were in power with anyone but I think they would refuse going in with FG because they'd never get support from their voters in the 26 again if they did. If they went in with Labour they could argue it was a left wing coalition

jank

Sinn Fein will do very well in the next GE election. This by election victory is the first seat won via by election by sinn fein in like 90 years!!!
They will break 10 seats in the next GE easy. The labour vote wont be as strong as predicited and Sinn Fein will do well from that.

People are forgetting that FF are the only big party that did republicanism in any shape or form. Voting FG or Labour for some people would be akin to voting Tory. The drift from FF to Sinn Fein is only natural but this worries me long term as the drift back is just as natural.:(

KeithAFC

Would be odd voting for an ex PIRA terrorist. Hince why i don't think Sinn Fein will do that well.

DB10

KeithAFC wrote: »

Would be odd voting for an ex PIRA terrorist. Hince why i don't think Sinn Fein will do that well.

Yet you will be willing to vote for the corrupt criminals FF that have destroyed the country?

Some people on here astound me. Just pure ignorance, guys like Pearce Doherty today in Donegal should not be tarred with a brush from the ignorant.

I honestly can't understand people who vote against certain parties (bar Fianna Fail obviously) it should be a vote for candidates in your area and then parties.

KeithAFC

DB10 wrote: »

Yet you will be willing to vote for the corrupt criminals FF that have destroyed the country?

Some people on here astound me. Just pure ignorance, guys like Pearce Doherty today in Donegal should not be tarred with a brush from the ignorant.

I honestly can't understand people who vote against certain parties (bar Fianna Fail obviously) it should be a vote for candidates in your area and then parties.

I don't live in the republic but i don't think Sinn Fein will do that well. When people calm down and see them for what they are, they won't vote for them in great enough numbers.

DB10

Anyway estimates of 6 are quite off the mark IMO.

I assume just from the areas I know a bit about SF may get:

2 in Donegal

2 in Cavan/Monaghan if a second candidate does stand

2 in Louth

Now obviously they will not get that many around the country but they will get more than 6 IMO.

All they need to do is organise themselves properly around the country with numbers.

But as we all know that is easier said than done.

DB10

DB10 wrote: »

it should be a vote for candidates in your area and then parties.

In my opinion, it's this parish pump politics mentality that has gotten us into a lot of this mess. The only time to vote local, is in council elections. You should vote for party and what they'll do for the country first and foremost.

DB10

KeithAFC wrote: »

I don't live in the republic

No offense but in all fairness if you live in Northern Ireland it is a bit different.
For instance are you a unionist?

Even if you answer no, it's two different countries at this stage, different policies completely and you have parties like the SDLP as alternatives. There is little alternative in the south.

I may vote Labour because for the first time they have a candidate standing in my area and maybe even two candidates.

But that is a local thing, nationally I have serious doubts about the Labour Party, and no confidence in Enda Kenny as FG leader. And FF, no chance.

Raskolnikov

DB10 wrote: »

2 in Louth

I'd say Gerry will romp home, but there is no way Sinn Féin will get another candidate home, even if they had a second one running.

KeithAFC

DB10 wrote: »

No offense but in all fairness if you live in Northern Ireland it is a bit different.
For instance are you a unionist?

Even if you answer no, it's two different countries at this stage, different policies completely and you have parties like the SDLP as alternatives. There is little alternative in the south.

I may vote Labour because for the first time they have a candidate standing in my area and maybe even two candidates.

But that is a local thing, nationally I have serious doubts about the Labour Party, and no confidence in Enda Kenny as FG leader. And FF, no chance.

Yes i am. Im a unionist/loyalist. The republic doesn't have a better party than Sinn Fein?

DB10

KeithAFC wrote: »

Yes i am. Im a unionist/loyalist. The republic doesn't have a better party than Sinn Fein?

I don't understand your post though. You're a loyalist yet, the fact you wouldn't vote for Sinn Fein in NI, is some how relevant to this thread?

I wouldn't vote for a racist old bigot like Paisley either, but is my opinion relevant to voting in NI?

Leiva

No doubt about it ..

The Donegal By-elections (useless as it is for Govt) has been a great PR exercise for SF.

The media Coverage and success story will sway more votes outside Donegal come election day.

Only thing Im baffled about is that FF still got 22%

Bullseye1

Papa Smut wrote: »

In my opinion, it's this parish pump politics mentality that has gotten us into a lot of this mess. The only time to vote local, is in council elections. You should vote for party and what they'll do for the country first and foremost.

Agreed. And I would go further to say that once elected a TD should concentrate on National Policy and not Local. Leave that to local representatives.

Leiva

Bullseye1 wrote: »

Agreed. And I would go further to say that once elected a TD should concentrate on National Policy and not Local. Leave that to local representatives.

^^this^^ + 1000%

Local Councilors should hold clinics and not TD's .

E.G
Jackie Healy Rae :
Great local councilor that should not be let anywhere near Dail Eireann .

nesf

mixednuts wrote: »

That tells me that 22% of the electorate in Donegal have their head up their hole .

Less of this kind of crap please. Just because you fundamentally disagree with someone's politics doesn't mean you should be insulting them.

Leiva

nesf wrote: »

Less of this kind of crap please. Just because you fundamentally disagree with someone's politics doesn't mean you should be insulting them.

Noted & Edited

LordSutch

paky wrote: »

Pierce Doherty is likely to claim victory today in Donegal and Gerry Adams is likely to take Arthur Morgans seat in Co. Louth. This is going to generate alot of positive publicity for Sinn Fein and we are likely to see a ripple effect of support around the country for Sinn Fein. I wreckon Sinn Fein will likely be in some form of Governemnt in the south in the new year. What do you guys think?

A ripple effect of support, yeah right :rolleyes: I sincerely hope not, and I'm not just saying that because I hate everything they stand for, but for the sake of this country on the international stage, putting ex Provos into power will do nothing to quell international markets in this climate :cool:

Anyway, I dont see a massive exodus from Labour or Fine Gael, so dream away . . . . .

Nuttzz

jank wrote: »

Sinn Fein will do very well in the next GE election. This by election victory is the first seat won via by election by sinn fein in like 90 years!!!
They will break 10 seats in the next GE easy. The labour vote wont be as strong as predicited and Sinn Fein will do well from that.

People are forgetting that FF are the only big party that did republicanism in any shape or form. Voting FG or Labour for some people would be akin to voting Tory. The drift from FF to Sinn Fein is only natural but this worries me long term as the drift back is just as natural.:(

I dont think people who voted for FF thought about republicanism much, they voted to "let the good time roll"

People will want certainty, FG/Lab will provide that, regardless of Gerry's "mandate".

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Butch Cassidy

Do you all anti-Sinn Fein people that don't want to see them get more votes over your rotting body support power sharing, peace process & the whole NI project?

If they're good enough for up there why not in the Dail as well? Democracy ftw ffs

Durnish

SF are blocking the budget in Northern Ireland. Just saying.

KeithAFC

DB10 wrote: »

I don't understand your post though. You're a loyalist yet, the fact you wouldn't vote for Sinn Fein in NI, is some how relevant to this thread?

I wouldn't vote for a racist old bigot like Paisley either, but is my opinion relevant to voting in NI?

What im saying is if the republic doesn't have better options than Sinn Fein. Then it really is beyond desperate times.

Kev_ps3

Tipp Man wrote: »

I hope and pray that the day doesnt come in my lifetime or that of my grandchildren and I'm in my early 30's

The last thing we need is a left wing commie government - I would rot in hell before I'd vote for them

As opposed to a right wing rich mans partys who have ruined this country for generations:rolleyes:

oncevotedff

paky wrote: »

Pierce Doherty is likely to claim victory today in Donegal and Gerry Adams is likely to take Arthur Morgans seat in Co. Louth. This is going to generate alot of positive publicity for Sinn Fein and we are likely to see a ripple effect of support around the country for Sinn Fein. I wreckon Sinn Fein will likely be in some form of Governemnt in the south in the new year. What do you guys think?
Eamonn Gilmore made a fair comment about them been in Governemnt in the next 10 years and I doubht they can be ruled out at this stage as contenders for the next coalition. Its very interesting times. I thought I'd never see the day!

SF will probably benefit from the disillusionment of many voters with FF. But I doubt it will be to a huge extent outside the border counties and Dublin. Nationally SF doesn't come near the support expressed in today's by-election so while they'll probably double the number of their TDs in the Dáil, I doubt they'll be needed to support a coalition. Let's hope not, we're bad enough without the Provos running the country.

oncevotedff

Butch Cassidy wrote: »

Do you all anti-Sinn Fein people that don't want to see them get more votes over your rotting body support power sharing, peace process & the whole NI project?

No.

Butch Cassidy wrote: »

If they're good enough for up there why not in the Dail as well? Democracy ftw ffs

By that logic we should vote for Unionist candidates here since they are good enough for "up there".

deise go deo

KeithAFC wrote: »

What im saying is if the republic doesn't have better options than Sinn Fein. Then it really is beyond desperate times.

Keith, what if anything do you know about SF south of the border, its candidates, policies etc?

Better options? , FF people thing FF is the best(Increadibly)
FG people think FG is the best option etc etc. Its all opinion. You have your axe to grind with SF but I think Its clear that SF were the best option in Donegall this time.
Where is the problem in that?

deise go deo

oncevotedff wrote: »

No.

You dont support the peace process
What do you want then?

Kev_ps3

KeithAFC wrote: »

What im saying is if the republic doesn't have better options than Sinn Fein. Then it really is beyond desperate times.

Anti-Irish Unionist poster in anti-Sinn Fein shocker.

nesf

Butch Cassidy wrote: »

Do you all anti-Sinn Fein people that don't want to see them get more votes over your rotting body support power sharing, peace process & the whole NI project?

If they're good enough for up there why not in the Dail as well? Democracy ftw ffs

The main issue is their hard left policies. Whatever about the North, their platform in the South is extremely far from what the average voter votes for and the main parties. They are a fringe element in the South and their policies reflect this (they deliberately appeal to a hard left fringe and that's where their votes are).

Athlone_Bhoy

KeithAFC wrote: »

What im saying is if the republic doesn't have better options than Sinn Fein. Then it really is beyond desperate times.

Why? Change is happening all over the world. People might actually want SF in power. I'd rather the left over the right any day or country is ****ed but people like you seem to think they would fall for it again.

sparkling sea

Athlone_Bhoy wrote: »

Why? Change is happening all over the world. People might actually want SF in power. I'd rather the left over the right any day or country is ****ed but people like you seem to think they would fall for it again.

I would rather a party from the Republic of Ireland and not Northern Ireland.
Why can't our won people run our county, be our president or our greatest citizens. Why do people from our country vote for Sinn Fein and not a real Irish party - tis mad, completely mad:mad:

deise go deo

sparkling sea wrote: »

I would rather a party from the Republic of Ireland and not Northern Ireland.
Why can't our won people run our county, be our president or our greatest citizens. Why do people from our country vote for Sinn Fein and not a real Irish party - tis mad, completely mad:mad:

SF are an Irish party
They are an all island Party. Are you claiming Mary McAleese is not Irish?

Athlone_Bhoy

sparkling sea wrote: »

I would rather a party from the Republic of Ireland and not Northern Ireland.
Why can't our won people run our county, be our president or our greatest citizens. Why do people from our country vote for Sinn Fein and not a real Irish party - tis mad, completely mad:mad:

Sinn Fein are our people. Infact I'm sure some would argue no political party could ever be more Irish than Sinn Fein. There's one political party that ever done anything for your people. You know the people in the North of Ireland they're actually Irish people.

BluePlanet

It's a very interesting result.

It answers the question: Who gets the disgruntled FF'ers vote?

Apparently not FG.
Looks like it goes to SF.

Will make things interesting next January.

Yitzhak Rabin

I'd never vote SF based on their history and economic lunacy.

However, I do wish some of the other parties would adopt some of their policies with regards to politicians pay.