Ireland will default

Climber

It is painfully obvious to me that Ireland will have to default within the next few years.

There are already clear indications that Greece will default sooner than that. FACT: Greece just cannot pay back its debt.

I beleive that the ECB/EU will be forced to proceed with an orderly/contolled default of several sovereign EU nations within the next few years. So this nightmare budget/IMF rape is pointless.

If only we had the strong and resolute leaders doing the negotiations at the moment and not the current band of gombeen fools.

wylo

a little taste of Greece 6 months on
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/nov/23/greece-imf-eu-economic-rescue

Higgsy

Climber,

You can bet your bottom dollar that the German and British institutions will get the majority of the money which is owed to them before they let us go to the wall.

You can count on and trust Cameron and Ms Merkel to ensure this.

We are a joke as a nation, when I say we, I mean all of us, we stood back and believed the "Tiger" hype. We all need to hold up our hands.

20Cent

Default is inevitable, everyone knows it except the two Brians.
They continue to pour our future away. FF out asap.

Climber

You can bet your bottom dollar that the German and British institutions will get the majority of the money which is owed to them before they let us go to the wall.

Higgsy, I totally agree. But Ireland is not the only nation in trouble. The contagion will continue to spread until ultimately no country will remain immune and an orderly default will have to happen.

The powers that be are hoping that the fire will be quashed in Ireland, however, this will spread like Wildfire until the default tidal wave kills it once and for all.

This is a very bad time for everyone.

donegal11

if we're going to default is it not best to get as many loans as we can before we do:)

DWCommuter

Climber wrote: »

It is painfully obvious to me that Ireland will have to default within the next few years.

There are already clear indications that Greece will default sooner than that. FACT: Greece just cannot pay back its debt.

I beleive that the ECB/EU will be forced to proceed with an orderly/contolled default of several sovereign EU nations within the next few years. So this nightmare budget/IMF rape is pointless.

If only we had the strong and resolute leaders doing the negotiations at the moment and not the current band of gombeen fools.

100%

The 4 year plan seems to be based on growth predictions that nobody else believes but Irish politicians. Considering how they have been utterly wrong over the last few years, its looking like a slide into default territory. I don't even believe the EU bigwigs have a clue either apart from trying to prop up the Euro in a desperate situation.

Cavehill Red

donegal11 wrote: »

if we're going to default is it not best to get as many loans as we can before we do:)

No, it isn't. Because those loans are what will make us default.
If we renege on the bank guarantee, we can handle our deficit and will not need to default.

Bob_Latchford

Feel there is definate firming up of feeling wanting the banks to be cut loose.

Cant see that the sovereign debt will be defaulted on myself

h2pogo

Climber wrote: »

It is painfully obvious to me that Ireland will have to default within the next few years.

There are already clear indications that Greece will default sooner than that. FACT: Greece just cannot pay back its debt.

I beleive that the ECB/EU will be forced to proceed with an orderly/contolled default of several sovereign EU nations within the next few years. So this nightmare budget/IMF rape is pointless.

If only we had the strong and resolute leaders doing the negotiations at the moment and not the current band of gombeen fools.

All true..What isnt being disscussed on TV is the global banking system of fractional reserve banking enforced by the ECB/IMF/city of london is flawed as it breaks the basic laws of economics..money is debt..its called Fiat
There is no way out of the cycle of debt..
Its a perfect system to enslave sovereign nations in debt..as the IMF has been doing for years..

Jim corr explains it very well in this message...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ing8xH3Qj-k&feature=player_embedded

Cavehill Red

h2pogo wrote: »

All true..What isnt being disscussed on TV is the global banking system of fractional reserve banking enforced by the ECB/IMF/city of london is flawed as it breaks the basic laws of economics..money is debt..its called Fiat
There is no way out of the cycle of debt..
Its a perfect system to enslave sovereign nations in debt..as the IMF has been doing for years..

Jim corr explains it very well in this message...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ing8xH3Qj-k&feature=player_embedded

Well, no. Jim Corr doesn't explain anything very well.
But there are legitimate concerns about the inflationary and ultimately unsustainable aspects of fiat currency unsecured to a gold standard or similar (be it a currency raft or commodities or whatever.)
That's why I'm in gold and silver.
/smug

h2pogo

Cavehill Red wrote: »

Well, no. Jim Corr doesn't explain anything very well.
But there are legitimate concerns about the inflationary and ultimately unsustainable aspects of fiat currency unsecured to a gold standard or similar (be it a currency raft or commodities or whatever.)
That's why I'm in gold and silver.
/smug

I am as smug as you mate..What people don't realize is when the metals market bubble bursts the prices are going up:) you have to protect your self.
I do not know of one example of a country saved by IMF fiat debt loans..

Did you see this vid of Jims..hes been practicing getting his point across lately..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ing8xH3Qj-k&feature=player_embedded

Cavehill Red

Seriously, this is the economics forum.
Jim Corr is better suited elsewhere.

The IMF's role has certainly been at best patchy. Given their statements this week about what they expect from the Irish economy it is clear they don't understand what we do or how we do it.
Some of their prescriptions have long since been achieved and others make little sense in an Irish context.

h2pogo

Cavehill Red wrote: »

Seriously, this is the economics forum.
Jim Corr is better suited elsewhere.

The IMF's role has certainly been at best patchy. Given their statements this week about what they expect from the Irish economy it is clear they don't understand what we do or how we do it.
Some of their prescriptions have long since been achieved and others make little sense in an Irish context.

Is calling the system of banking we have what it is a conspiracy?

Jims one of the only Irish people addressing the route cause of the problem..other than people calling people conspiracy theorists when they tell the truth that people on the TV don't talk about.

Ireland cant pay the IMF/ECB back..Has any country in their short history?

Cavehill Red

h2pogo wrote: »

Is calling the system of banking we have what it is a conspiracy?

Jims one of the only Irish people addressing the route cause of the problem..other than people calling people conspiracy theorists when they tell the truth that people on the TV don't talk about.

Ireland cant pay the IMF/ECB back..Has any country in their short history?

Yes, the IMF have been paid back more than once. Thailand springs to mind as one example.

That doesn't mean I think we should take their bailout though. I believe the banks should be cut loose and allowed to go bust as capitalism dictates.

Look, Jim Corr is no economist. It's arguable if he's even a musician. Don't take economic advice from Jim Corr. Don't take it from me either. Do your own due diligence, and your own research. Youtube is not the place to conduct that research.

h2pogo

Cavehill Red wrote: »

Yes, the IMF have been paid back more than once. Thailand springs to mind as one example.

That doesn't mean I think we should take their bailout though. I believe the banks should be cut loose and allowed to go bust as capitalism dictates.

Look, Jim Corr is no economist. It's arguable if he's even a musician. Don't take economic advice from Jim Corr. Don't take it from me either. Do your own due diligence, and your own research. Youtube is not the place to conduct that research.

I agree the banks should suffer what their practices dictate in a free market..

Even though Jim's no economist he seems the only Irish person that addresses the root cause of the problem..
I have done my own due diligence after watching a few vids on the web and am certain money is debt.

Cavehill Red

h2pogo wrote: »

I agree the banks should suffer what their practices dictate in a free market..

Even though Jim's no economist he seems the only Irish person that addresses the root cause of the problem..
I have done my own due diligence after watching a few vids on the web and am certain money is debt.

Money IS debt. But you shouldn't be relying on a has-been musician to tell you that!

Forget about Jim Corr and do some research of your own. You're undoubtedly smarter than a lad who was drummer for his three talented and fit sisters.

waxon-waxoff

Despite the turmoil in world markets its interesting to note that bank bonuses in the city of London are estimated at 7bn to be paid out early 2011. No matter what happens these guys get paid. As long as someone, in this case the Irish taxpayer, keeps making payments the show goes on. Reckless lending is not uncommon as the city is focused on end of quarter results and commission, and poor decisions such as lending billions to Anglo are the result.

h2pogo

Cavehill Red wrote: »

Money IS debt. But you shouldn't be relying on a has-been musician to tell you that!

Forget about Jim Corr and do some research of your own. You're undoubtedly smarter than a lad who was drummer for his three talented and fit sisters.

I learned money is debt long before i ever heard of Jim Cor and before i had access to the internet..I have done many hours of research over many years and still find it hard to believe how money has been created for the last 40 or so years..I was brought up to believe money had to be backed by a tangible asset like gold or silver..

I respect Jim though for putting his reputation on the line for what he believes.

I think more people should investigate for them selves what he is saying in this vid.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ing8xH3Qj-k&feature=player_embedded

Cavehill Red

Jim Corr's 'reputation' is as a total loon.

You do your arguments, which have good merit, no favours by linking them to a hasbeen drummer with paranoid tendencies.

h2pogo

Cavehill Red wrote: »

Jim Corr's 'reputation' is as a total loon.

You do your arguments, which have good merit, no favours by linking them to a hasbeen drummer with paranoid tendencies.

people thought i was a total loon when i said money isn't backed by gold.

Cavehill Red

h2pogo wrote: »

people thought i was a total loon when i said money isn't backed by gold.

A dog is an animal. A cat is an animal. Therefore a cat is a dog.

Similarly: People thing Jim Corr is a loon. People thought you were a loon. Therefore Jim Corr is like you, not a loon.

Faulty logic. Don't apply it to economics or you'll end up in the same place as comical Lenny. F**ked.

Absurdum

waxon-waxoff wrote: »

Despite the turmoil in world markets its interesting to note that bank bonuses in the city of London are estimated at 7bn to be paid out early 2011. No matter what happens these guys get paid. As long as someone, in this case the Irish taxpayer, keeps making payments the show goes on. Reckless lending is not uncommon as the city is focused on end of quarter results and commission, and poor decisions such as lending billions to Anglo are the result.

isn't this the big picture that needs to be put under the spotlight?
who or what are "the markets"? why are some mysterious "bondholders" somehow becoming more powerful than sovereign states? where the hell is all this heading, not just Ireland but globally? I'm starting to think that we should be spending a hell of a lot more on defence, not paying back some faceless institutions we, the citizens, seem to know nothing about.

ps I don't intend this to be some kind of lefty rant, but whatever happened to supply-demand, savings+deposits=loans, repayments + interest, and so on....why isn't a hedge fund manager someone who works in a garden centre???

feicim

its hard to see how ireland won't default

Government tax take = 30 billion


Repayments on loan on 100 billion + interest (over 10years) = 15 billion a year.

If the government is struggling to find 15 billion over its 4 year austerity plan, how will it manage an extra 15 billion for loan repayments on top of that?? Its a sick joke.
(Is the country to be run on 15 billion a year? Can't wait to see that.)

All the 100 billion will do is put off our default for 2 or 3 years.

RonMexico

But but ... Jim Corr isn't a drummer???? He is a guitarist.






Still you got one thing right...he is nuts.

Absurdum

I don't think he's too worried about gettin his electricity cut off either

h2pogo

Cavehill Red wrote: »

A dog is an animal. A cat is an animal. Therefore a cat is a dog.

Similarly: People thing Jim Corr is a loon. People thought you were a loon. Therefore Jim Corr is like you, not a loon.

Faulty logic. Don't apply it to economics or you'll end up in the same place as comical Lenny. F**ked.

I get your point..but i don't see Jim Cor as a loon..If he is then so am I.

I hope one day people will research what Jim's been saying and apologize..

hinault

h2pogo wrote: »

people thought i was a total loon when i said money isn't backed by gold.

What? Money isn't backed by gold?

Only joking.

I agree with those here who've said that a default is probable.

Bank debts being put on the backs of the Irish taxpayer make the total amount of debt outstanding unrepayble IMO.

Cavehill Red

RonMexico wrote: »

But but ... Jim Corr isn't a drummer???? He is a guitarist.






Still you got one thing right...he is nuts.

As a guitarist, he's a smashing drummer.

And he's a loon.

h2pogo

hinault wrote: »

What? Money isn't backed by gold?

Only joking.

I agree with those here who've said that a default is probable.

Bank debts being put on the backs of the Irish taxpayer make the total amount of debt outstanding unrepayble IMO.

The debt can never be paid off not in Ireland or any where in Europe.

The question is who do we owe the debt to and where did they get the money?

pwd

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WINDtlPXmmE

hinault

h2pogo wrote: »

The debt can never be paid off not in Ireland or any where in Europe.

The question is who do we owe the debt to and where did they get the money?

Lenihan put this (bank) debt on to the taxpayers of this country.

Private debt became public debt.
Where the private debt came from was that Irish banks chose to borrow money from other banks.
Why that private debt was accumulated is of no interest to me.

I didn't incur that debt.
You didn't incur that debt.
But Lenihan has decided that you and I and every other taxpayer should repay that private debt.

h2pogo

hinault wrote: »

Lenihan put this (bank) debt on to the taxpayers of this country.

Private debt became public debt.
Where the private debt came from was that Irish banks chose to borrow money from other banks.
Why that private debt was accumulated is of no interest to me.

I didn't incur that debt.
You didn't incur that debt.
But Lenihan has decided that you and I and every other taxpayer should repay that private debt.

Fair comment..however unsustainable the system is its not us that is benefiting from what Lenihan decides..which amounts to a dereliction of duty and begs the question who does he really represent?

DeVore

hinault wrote: »

Lenihan put this (bank) debt on to the taxpayers of this country.

Private debt became public debt.
Where the private debt came from was that Irish banks chose to borrow money from other banks.
Why that private debt was accumulated is of no interest to me.

I didn't incur that debt.
You didn't incur that debt.
But Lenihan has decided that you and I and every other taxpayer should repay that private debt.

Very succinctly put. And quite true.

To expand on one part... where the private debt came from is primarily German and English banks...

DeV.

SkepticOne

There's a sort of double irony in all this.

We thought that by saving the banks we would save the country. So we extended the guarantee to the banks. In doing so we destroyed the financial integrity of the state.

That would be the first irony: saving the banks but destroying the state finances, the very thing we set out to protect.

The second irony is that since the banks now depend on the state guarantee and the state is no longer in a position to provide that, the banks are also compromised.

Anyway the solution is fairly obvious. We must transfer the obligations run up by the banks back on to the banks themselves while protecting deposit holders in those banks. Instead of the Irish state defaulting on sovereign debt, the banks default on bank debt. This seems to be the consensus of experts on the likes of VB as well as Morgan Kelly, McWilliams and others.

This is the debt for equity swap or bank resolution that the various pundits talk about. Let the those who lent to private institutions pay when those private institutions fail.

Most large deposit holders have probably already moved a lot of their money out to safer locations if reports are to believed. This makes the job a little easier.

It is possible that some solution of this sort is currently being negotiated with the IMF and the EU. If so, fair play to Cowen and Lenihan even though they have been a disaster in other respects. But I fear I may be being a little optimistic here.

pwd

SkepticOne wrote: »

It is possible that some solution of this sort is currently being negotiated with the IMF and the EU. If so, fair play to Cowen and Lenihan even though they have been a disaster in other respects. But I fear I may be being a little optimistic here.

I think you're being very optimistic. There is nothing at all to suggest this is the case afaik, and plenty to suggest it is not.

Maybe you should get a new username.

SkepticOne

pwd wrote: »

I think you're being very optimistic. There is nothing at all to suggest this is the case afaik, and plenty to suggest it is not.

Maybe you should get a new username.

That was an understatent on my part. For the record, I think it is very unlikely given past form. I'm merely suggesting it as a possibility.

I fully recognise that the way the government normally proceeds is to try and cut a deal where as many groups as possible are kept happy; try to give everybody what they want. Alienate no one.

Now we're faced with the end of the road for that approach. The solution that is necessary is to make certain groups very unhappy namely the bond holders and the EU who will be looking to Ireland to carry the can for private debts.

The main point of the post is that this is what they need to do. When the negotiations are over it will be much harder to pull it off.

maninasia

h2pogo wrote: »

Fair comment..however unsustainable the system is its not us that is benefiting from what Lenihan decides..which amounts to a dereliction of duty and begs the question who does he really represent?

What happened to most of you two years ago, sleeping? Lenny the hero....

jmayo

donegal11 wrote: »

if we're going to default is it not best to get as many loans as we can before we do:)

It will be the EU/ECB loans that will push us over the edge.
Note I did not say the IMF loans.

hinault wrote: »

Lenihan put this (bank) debt on to the taxpayers of this country.

Private debt became public debt.
Where the private debt came from was that Irish banks chose to borrow money from other banks.
Why that private debt was accumulated is of no interest to me.

I didn't incur that debt.
You didn't incur that debt.
But Lenihan has decided that you and I and every other taxpayer should repay that private debt.

Very well said.

I believe ff are going to sign a deal that will result in Ireland paying 5 to 7% on the loans.

They are refusing to announce what happens to their 4 year plan at different interest rates.


They have actually been able to con the IMF/EU.
Just look at how much they have cut Fás. It's budget has been cut by 10million and it has been proven to be a complete and utter cesspit of waste.
Just look how they have not touched public sector pay and only tinkered at the edges of the CPA.

They are going to leave and the next government will be left a ticking time bomb.

Dannyboy83

Peter Schiff (The American Morgan Kelly) says Ireland must default:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwSrX6NPafk

miseeire

Has the time come for common sence to take hold and for Ireland to default on debts that were not fault of the sovereign country?More and more expects are saying this is the only way out.Bond rates are back up to nearly 9% again this morning and the country is preparing for many,many years,not 4,of total hardship.I fear the country I love so much will never recover unless a new direction is taken.We may even have to go cap in hand to england to take us back.Believe me folks,things will get a lot worse unless our totally useless politicians bite the bullet and say "enough is more than enough"Iceland defaulted and we don't hear a word about it now.SOMETHING MUST BE DONE NOW.

hobochris

100% agree.

The Bailout amount proposed along with our existing debt cannot be viably serviced by such a small nation.

Things are going to take a turn for the worse either way, at least with a default we are off the hook when things get better.

The pressure seems to be on us to take responsibility for the stupid lending in our banking sector, how about Germany take some responsibility for the stupid lending by their banks to our banks that took place.

Zipppy

We cannot EVER afford to pay back all the loans, debts etc.. could be looking at 250Bn + so why bother with all this...we would need to halve SW, pay 25% of incomes in tax and add HUGE increases to all other taxes.....country would collapse....

WE CANT AFFORD IT and Europe needs to BAIL US OUT not loan more money we cannot ever reply...

Ditch the Govt, ditch the EU loans,.........

gonedrinking

miseeire wrote: »

Iceland defaulted and we don't hear a word about it now.

did they? I thought they were bailed out

h2pogo

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

Peter Schiff (The American Morgan Kelly) says Ireland must default:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwSrX6NPafk

Peter Schiff tells us like it is...Thanks for sharing.

AlphaBeagle

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

Peter Schiff (The American Morgan Kelly) says Ireland must default:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwSrX6NPafk

Here here... it's inevitable that Ireland will default eventually, as those ads say... your investment may fall as well as rise...
the Irish people should have not been made to foot the bill of failed investments by private investors... Fianna Failers have screwed up this country for many years to come. But what now... ? the future scares me.. least I still have a job. (for now)

God bless Ireland.

Avgas

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

Peter Schiff (The American Morgan Kelly) says Ireland must default:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwSrX6NPafk[/url]

Hmmm...he also says 'it is fantastic news for Ireland if their government cannot borrow (on the intl markets) because the Irish economy will grow'.

He is a radical free market liberal. This is the 'cure may kill you but honestly its for your own good' school of medicine. Basically it is shock therapy/live within your means from today type argument. So we just make do with 31bn and not borrow the gap up to 50bn. That sounds great until you realize we'd be missing 19bn almost overnight......it would be a far bigger meltdown to what we're doing now. Like deliberately crashing the car because you've been speeding-that will slow things down all right!

The haircut being discussed for the senior bond holders is the default in a not so clear disguise. All these plays re money for Ireland and now Portugal are justing buying time to organize the wider Eurozone debt holders so the can minimize the carnage and cover politically important 'players', debts, and institutions. It would be also nice if they could stack the ECB with inflationphiles for a while to erode some of the debt that way as well. Unlikely though.

Open default for us is then probably likely 2012-13?

That is if the Euro doesn't collapse first.

jonnyfingers

I think we need to a least seriously threaten to default. I think it's our only negotiating power when it comes to the interest rate of the bailout. A default is no good for the rest of Europe so we may well have them over a barrel and get a low interest rate. And if our bluff is called then we should default. The was the numbers are stacking up we're going to do it eventually, might as well be now. A default will not be at all pretty but if we survive the immediate pain and learn to make do with what we have I believe we'll come out of this mess sooner, stronger and, hopefully, wiser.

Donal Og O Baelach

h2pogo wrote: »

The debt can never be paid off not in Ireland or any where in Europe.

The question is who do we owe the debt to and where did they get the money?

This comedy sketch actually gives a valid insight into the question.

http://bit.ly/bQhBUa

Butch Cassidy

Higgsy wrote: »

We are a joke as a nation, when I say we, I mean all of us, we stood back and believed the "Tiger" hype. We all need to hold up our hands.

I propose a ban on people like you using the pronoun "we" when making such brash assumptions.

You might've believed the hype but I bloody well didn't! I didn't pay a half million for a shed in Navan...

karlth

Iceland didn't default.

The banks were "just" allowed to go bankrupt.