We will leave the Euro and default

Dannyboy83

Why Ireland is going to leave the Euro and default:

Bail out debt: 120billion
Sovereign debt: 92billion +
Current total debt: 212 billion

There are 1.8 million people working in the Irish Republic.
Only 1 million pay tax; this means that every individual tax payer in Ireland is Liable for €212,000.
Assuming 500,000 people emigrate when taxes go through the roof, every remaining taxpayer now owes €424,000 each.

To pay off 212billion @ 5billion per year, it would take 42 years! (ignoring interest)

We currently have an annual deficit of 20billion per year.
Somehow we need to cut 20billion expenses off our budget and implement 5billion of tax increases.

We are utterly screwed.

yosser hughes

If you think Ireland is going to leave the Euro then you should move your money if you have any. If ireland were to adopt a new currency or revert back to the punt,then your euros would be changed to that currency immediately and would be worth considerably less.
I'm not saying all of this will happen,but that is my advice to those with a few quid in the bank.

wylo

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

Why Ireland is going to leave the Euro and default:

Bail out debt: 120billion
Sovereign debt: 92billion +
Current total debt: 212 billion

There are 1.8 million people working in the Irish Republic.
Only 1 million pay tax; this means that every individual tax payer in Ireland is Liable for €212,000.
Assuming 500,000 people emigrate when taxes go through the roof, every remaining taxpayer now owes €424,000 each.

To pay off 212billion @ 5billion per year, it would take 42 years! (ignoring interest)

We currently have an annual deficit of 20billion per year.
Somehow we need to cut 20billion expenses off our budget and implement 5billion of tax increases.

We are utterly screwed.

Alot of assumptions here, firstly the bailout figure is far from confirmed, secondly 500,000 tax payers emmigrating? That makes no sense , firstly that figure is too high, secondly, the tax payers will be the least likely people to go of all our population because they are the ones with jobs.

dermo88

No mechanism has been laid out for leaving the Euro. First, we'd have to change the coinage, because it would be a case of Irish people heading over to Europe, and using devalued Irish currency in their slot machines to buy train tickets and other material.

As for the Banknotes themselves, it takes at least a year to design a set of Banknotes, but these days people use debit and credit cards, pure cash in circulation is a fraction of the true amount out there in Bank Balances and the likes.

Ireland is merely part of an entire developed world witnessing an unparalleled meltdown in wealth, started by Tricky Dicky Nixon on the day he pulled the US Dollar off gold in 1971.

oppenheimer1

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

Why Ireland is going to leave the Euro and default:

Bail out debt: 120billion
Sovereign debt: 92billion +
Current total debt: 212 billion

There are 1.8 million people working in the Irish Republic.
Only 1 million pay tax; this means that every individual tax payer in Ireland is Liable for €212,000.
Assuming 500,000 people emigrate when taxes go through the roof, every remaining taxpayer now owes €424,000 each.

To pay off 212billion @ 5billion per year, it would take 42 years! (ignoring interest)

We currently have an annual deficit of 20billion per year.
Somehow we need to cut 20billion expenses off our budget and implement 5billion of tax increases.

We are utterly screwed.

You're wrong with your figures. The bailout will be used to refinance the existing debt not in addition to it if the bailout is €90bn it is a good approximation of the total sovereign debt. It is too simplistic to add the two together.

Total debt of Irish sovereign personal and corporate debt is 700% GDP which is an altogether more worrisome figure.

irishh_bob

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

Why Ireland is going to leave the Euro and default:

Bail out debt: 120billion
Sovereign debt: 92billion +
Current total debt: 212 billion

There are 1.8 million people working in the Irish Republic.
Only 1 million pay tax; this means that every individual tax payer in Ireland is Liable for €212,000.
Assuming 500,000 people emigrate when taxes go through the roof, every remaining taxpayer now owes €424,000 each.

To pay off 212billion @ 5billion per year, it would take 42 years! (ignoring interest)

We currently have an annual deficit of 20billion per year.
Somehow we need to cut 20billion expenses off our budget and implement 5billion of tax increases.

We are utterly screwed.

is it possible this bailout is designed 1st and foremost to protect german and british banks , once thats out of the way , the stage will be set for our withdrawl , possibley along with greece and portugal

Monty Burnz

yosser hughes wrote: »

If you think Ireland is going to leave the Euro then you should move your money if you have any. If ireland were to adopt a new currency or revert back to the punt,then your euros would be changed to that currency immediately and would be worth considerably less.
I'm not saying all of this will happen,but that is my advice to those with a few quid in the bank.

My money left Ireland 3 years ago.

AntiRip

wylo wrote: »

Alot of assumptions here, firstly the bailout figure is far from confirmed, secondly 500,000 tax payers emmigrating? That makes no sense , firstly that figure is too high, secondly, the tax payers will be the least likely people to go of all our population because they are the ones with jobs.

Not sure if this is true or not....

Earlier in the day, the Sunday Times of London report said the IMF, EU and European Central Bank were preparing a 120-billion-euro bailout of Ireland, requiring the country to raise taxes and nationalize more banks.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ireland-164b-rescue-in-works-uk-sunday-times-2010-11-21?siteid=rss&rss=1

Monty Burnz

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

You're wrong with your figures. The bailout will be used to refinance the existing debt not in addition to it if the bailout is €90bn it is a good approximation of the total sovereign debt. It is too simplistic to add the two together.

Total debt of Irish sovereign personal and corporate debt is 700% GDP which is an altogether more worrisome figure.

Right, but unfortunately the current debt figure includes NOTHING for bad domestic mortgages, the other half of Ireland's debt bubble disaster. If you think that there will not be a single mortgage default in the coming years, you may be right. But if you think that 100,000 people will default on mortgages with an average loss to the banks of €100,000 each, how much higher is our national debt?

hint: it's a 13-digit number

Scofflaw

As has been pointed out, this thread is based on adding the two debts together, whereas one can be used to pay the other. Do we really need an entire thread based on bad arithmetic?

See the "do we really need a bailout?" thread, or one of the several other threads discussing how much we actually owe.

moderately,
Scofflaw