The next Dail

RockinRolla

It would not be unthinkable to see Sinn Fein overtaking Fianna Fail in the next opinion poll having put forward an excellent budget strategy. I have never voted for SF. Never dreamt I would but by God, I'm getting there! :mad:

Labour will always play second fiddle to Fine Gael in a coalition. To this end, would a coalition with Sinn Fein not suit Labour more...
Our situation is this - If Fine Gael get in, NOTHING WILL CHANGE! Still the old dinosaur mentality. Ireland needs something NEW. Something Different!
So the people of Ireland have 2 options -

1. Keep going the way we are now and have a Labour/FG govt with Kenny heading up the govt and spend the next 10 years blaming the Banks, builders and FF for all the mess Eire is in. But at the same time administer their Four year policy. This offers no real change of policy. And have no doubt FG will not enact radical enough change to help those that need it. (rich farmers earning thousands on subsidies etc are not exactly at deperation point)

2. Labour could state that there is no reason why they would not enter into Govt with SF. The possibility for local election pacts would be endless and would encourage those who dont normally vote to do so. This would also give Labour access to SF rural vote in areas were Labour is weaker. Together they could put in place policies that would work for the people of Ireland ie corporation tax up one % point and used as mortgage relief, this would not really hinder our competitiveness in relative terms and would take some massive pressure off working families. With SF in govt North and South they could put in place policies that would offer economies of scale e.g all Ireland health service/bus /rail/fire rescue/ rural networks etc. It is easy to say that would never happen but the dire situation we are in now needs radical ideas, its just a pity the LP seem to have accepted the idea of playing second fiddle to FG. Dont look at SF as a threat but an opportunity to win the election.

Inquitus

RockinRolla wrote: »

It would not be unthinkable to see Sinn Fein overtaking Fianna Fail in the next opinion poll having put forward an excellent budget strategy. I have never voted for SF. Never dreamt I would but by God, I'm getting there! :mad:

Labour will always play second fiddle to Fine Gael in a coalition. To this end, would a coalition with Sinn Fein not suit Labour more...
Our situation is this - If Fine Gael get in, NOTHING WILL CHANGE! Still the old dinosaur mentality. Ireland needs something NEW. Something Different!
So the people of Ireland have 2 options -

1. Keep going the way we are now and have a Labour/FG govt with Kenny heading up the govt and spend the next 10 years blaming the Banks, builders and FF for all the mess Eire is in. But at the same time administer their Four year policy. This offers no real change of policy. And have no doubt FG will not enact radical enough change to help those that need it. (rich farmers earning thousands on subsidies etc are not exactly at deperation point)

2. Labour could state that there is no reason why they would not enter into Govt with SF. The possibility for local election pacts would be endless and would encourage those who dont normally vote to do so. This would also give Labour access to SF rural vote in areas were Labour is weaker. Together they could put in place policies that would work for the people of Ireland ie corporation tax up one % point and used as mortgage relief, this would not really hinder our competitiveness in relative terms and would take some massive pressure off working families. With SF in govt North and South they could put in place policies that would offer economies of scale e.g all Ireland health service/bus /rail/fire rescue/ rural networks etc. It is easy to say that would never happen but the dire situation we are in now needs radical ideas, its just a pity the LP seem to have accepted the idea of playing second fiddle to FG. Dont look at SF as a threat but an opportunity to win the election.

SF and excellent budget strategy in the same sentence, thanks for brightening up my Friday with a chuckle.

mloc

RockinRolla wrote: »

...SF...

The last thing we need for a sustainable economy is a group of ex-terrorist left-wing nutjobs.

Irish people, in general, seem to have no real understanding of the economic situation. It's sad really they don't inform themselves better considering this ignorance will inevitably effect them for the rest of their lives, and probably that of their kids too.

RockinRolla

mloc wrote: »

The last thing we need for a sustainable economy is a group of ex-terrorist left-wing nutjobs.

Irish people, in general, seem to have no real understanding of the economic situation. It's sad really they don't inform themselves better considering this ignorance will inevitably effect them for the rest of their lives, and probably that of their kids too.

I believe with the correct policies and faces enforcing them, SF have moved away from that image. Everyone was quite impressed with them as of late, particularly in Donegal where their cadidate is head and shoulders above the rest. Add this along with Adams pushing for the Louth election and you have a party trying to correct itself in the peoples eyes.

Im all for a debate on the subject - please enlighten us as Im sure the Irish people are confused about who exactly deserves their vote in this important upcoming GE.

RockinRolla

Inquitus wrote: »

SF and excellent budget strategy in the same sentence, thanks for brightening up my Friday with a chuckle.

This is from their website.


Deputy Morgan revealed plans to cut the deficit by over €4.5 billion and invest in a €2 billion jobs stimulus in 2011 while protecting frontline public services and those on low and middle incomes.


Sinn Féin proposes a range of taxation measures aimed at high earners, the abolition of wastages in public spending and the transfer of €7 billion from the National Pension Reserve Fund for a 3.5 year state wide investment programme to stimulate the economy and create jobs.


The document, entitled ‘There is a better way’, is fully costed and endorsed by independent economists.


Speaking at the launch today Deputy Morgan said:
“Included in Sinn Féin’s revenue raising proposals is a new 48% tax on incomes in excess of €100,000 raising €410 million, the standardising of all discretionary tax reliefs at the lower rate raising €1.1 billion, an income linked wealth tax of 1% on all assets worth more than €1 million excluding working farmland raising €1 billion and increases in Capital Gains Tax, Capital Acquisitions Tax and DIRT.


“We are also calling for the abolition of a number of tax exemptions including mortgage interest relief for landlords, property tax reliefs and income tax and PRSI exemptions for share options.
“We propose to cap Ministerial salaries at €100,000, TDs at €75,000 and Senators at €60,000. Similarly we call for a cap on the maximum salary in the public service at €100,000.


“All of our revenue raising proposals are aimed at those in our society who can afford to pay more and if implemented they would raise €5.266 million.
“With this Sinn Féin would put €595 million into a financial stimulus plan and use the remaining €4.671 billion to reduce the deficit.


“We would then take €7 billion from the National Pension Reserve Fund for a three and a half year state wide investment programme to stimulate the economy and create jobs, €2 billion to be spent on shovel ready projects in 2011.


“We would then reduce the remainder of the deficit through increased economic growth generated as a result of our economic stimulus plan. We are confident that the deficit can be reduced to the stability and growth pact level by 2016 in a progressive manner while growing the economy.”

28064212

Hopefully, over the next few years, FF and FG will combine forces, or FF will just break up completely, with their members joining FG, Labour, or forming a new PD-equivalent. The fact that our two largest parties (historically) are so politically close is a ridiculous situation. Civil war politics don't matter any more

Liam Byrne

RockinRolla wrote: »

I believe with the correct policies and faces enforcing them, SF have moved away from that image. Everyone was quite impressed with them as of late......

What's the current lingo : "OMG!!!" ???

The FF abuse of the language is spreading.

PeterIanStaker

The only thing SF will achieve in the next GE is putting FF back in power because the media will whip up predictable hysteria in the Spindo - "SF/IRA Will Kill your Children and Make Them Learn Irish", or something, I'm sure.

No party or ideology can fix this mess.

kaiser sauze

Anyone who votes for Sinn Féin has not researched their manifesto.

Fianna Fáil have attempted to sink this country into the sea several times in our history now, Sinn Féin looney economics would achieve it.

PeterIanStaker

kaiser sauze wrote: »

Anyone who votes for Sinn Féin has not researched their manifesto.

Fianna Fáil have attempted to sink this country into the sea several times in our history now, Sinn Féin looney economics would achieve it.

Looks like FF have acheived their aim, they have well and truly sank it.

Voltex

Can anyone paint a picture of what or how they see the main parties in the next Dail.

Is this a real death of finna fail or will they some how remain the main oppostion party?

A Country Voice

A Wild guess, but I suppose we'll be looking at FG in the late 60's, Labour and FF in the 40's, a handful of independents and sinn fein, dunno if any greens will get in.

My wild off the cuff prediction is FG 68, Labour 44, FF 40, SF 6, GP 1, Inds 7, total 166 seats.

Thats my 2 cents. I didnt think too long about that now lol

A Country Voice

geespot

very specific for somebody who didnt think about it very long i think the big shock will be labour who outside dublin wont get as many seats as they would like ( expect them to throw in a few celebs ) and fianna fail will probably get more than expected but fg and lab will make up the next gov and suppose thats the bottom line

Killer Pigeon

It's possible that the campaign structure of the next General Election will be more ideological based, i.e., left versus right - a bit like British politics. However, I couldn't really see this happening just yet, there is still a strong air of coalition between Labour and Fine Gael, both being more or less opposites in an ideological sense. Although if future polls indicate that Labour are about on par with Fine Gael (sometime like ~35% - Labour, ~35% - Fine Gael, ~9% - Fianna Fáil, ~12% - Sinn Féin and ~9 - other) then it wouldn't at all be difficult to envisage the Labour Party deciding to severing ties with Fine Gael and jointly campaign with Sinn Féin and the Socialists, forming a strong 'United Left'. It wouldn't be an abstruse materialisation either if Fine Gael then decided to form a relationship with the Greens or, dare I say, Fianna Fáil to almost epitomise a 'Right Unity’ of sorts to counter the growing heathens on the left.

If, in a perfect world, Labour did in fact ‘win’ the next General Election by a sizable amount and form a coalition, then for the first time in the history of modern Irish politics we could in fact see a more stable political divide between the opposition and the government. We would see politics based more on ‘textbook’ ideology, actually working towards a goal and a government relatively devoid of major internal bickering.

ArmaniJeanss

A Country Voice wrote: »

A Wild guess, but I suppose we'll be looking at FG in the late 60's, Labour and FF in the 40's, a handful of independents and sinn fein, dunno if any greens will get in.

My wild off the cuff prediction is FG 68, Labour 44, FF 40, SF 6, GP 1, Inds 7, total 166 seats.

Thats my 2 cents. I didnt think too long about that now lol

A Country Voice

I don't think Labour can run a campaign that will get close to 44 seats. Their percentage in opinion polls might indicate its possible but the constituency system makes it unlikely.
They would need to be running 2 candidates in most of the 43 constituencies and have a hugely disciplined voting arrangement whereby the 2 candidates split the constituency and don't impinge on each others territory. Basically aiming to be 3rd&4th or 4th&5th elected in 4 and 5 seat constituencies, running the risk of neither getting elected.
Whats likely to happen in reality is that their higher profile candidate will comfortably get elected but fail to bring home a running mate.

They'll also get no candidates elected in some rural 3 seaters and will ultimately end up with around 32 seats.

eastwood111

Your dead right there. They don't inform themselves sufficiently so that they can see beyond the usual spin that the media puts on the debate and instead look at the economic situation from a factual point of view instead of an emotional point of view.

kenco

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

I don't think Labour can run a campaign that will get close to 44 seats. Their percentage in opinion polls might indicate its possible but the constituency system makes it unlikely.
They would need to be running 2 candidates in most of the 43 constituencies and have a hugely disciplined voting arrangement whereby the 2 candidates split the constituency and don't impinge on each others territory. Basically aiming to be 3rd&4th or 4th&5th elected in 4 and 5 seat constituencies, running the risk of neither getting elected.
Whats likely to happen in reality is that their higher profile candidate will comfortably get elected but fail to bring home a running mate.

They'll also get no candidates elected in some rural 3 seaters and will ultimately end up with around 32 seats.

You have hit the nail on the head here re: Labour. Anything in the 40s for them will be a minor miracle for the reasons outlined above. I reckon mid to high 30's. FF will fall but not to the kind of levels some people think, mid to high 50s I reckon which of course brings an FF/Lab government back in the equation (assuming a new leader for FF). It would be a tough call for Labour but ideoloically they are closer to FF than FG and could argue that with their size they would be able to 'control' the direction of the government better than say independants, smaller parties, etc.

Outcome of the next election is far from certain

mloc

It's sad that any FF member will get a single vote after recent carry on. I think it exemplifies all that is wrong with Irish political culture.

mikemac

Do you reckon there will be a large increase in Independents?

With county hospitals being downgraded and road projects being shelved, maybe voters will look at the candidate who will fight on these issues.

Now I know you'll say this is a problem with our Dáil and it is. But the likes of Lowry and Healy-Rae are in a great position right now as the government needs their support.

If they manage to get "goodies" for their areas maybe voters will look on and want this also.

Over 20 years on and people still mention the Gregory deal

Pete_Cavan

Killer Pigeon wrote: »

It's possible that the campaign structure of the next General Election will be more ideological based, i.e., left versus right - a bit like British politics. However, I couldn't really see this happening just yet, there is still a strong air of coalition between Labour and Fine Gael, both being more or less opposites in an ideological sense. Although if future polls indicate that Labour are about on par with Fine Gael (sometime like ~35% - Labour, ~35% - Fine Gael, ~9% - Fianna Fáil, ~12% - Sinn Féin and ~9 - other) then it wouldn't at all be difficult to envisage the Labour Party deciding to severing ties with Fine Gael and jointly campaign with Sinn Féin and the Socialists, forming a strong 'United Left'. It wouldn't be an abstruse materialisation either if Fine Gael then decided to form a relationship with the Greens or, dare I say, Fianna Fáil to almost epitomise a 'Right Unity’ of sorts to counter the growing heathens on the left.

You can hardly call FF right wing. Bertie was a "socialist" remember, and Biffo seems quite left leaning as well. What we need is for Harney to get together with some of her ex-PD mates and a few young enthusiastic people and give us a proper right wing alternative. There will never be a better time for a right wing party to take swing voters, as well as all those in the country inclined to vote for a right wing party, and there are certainly seats up for grabs. There may even be scope for them to form a government along with FG and a few independents.

Pete_Cavan

feelingstressed wrote: »

Do you reckon there will be a large increase in Independents?

With county hospitals being downgraded and road projects being shelved, maybe voters will look at the candidate who will fight on these issues.

Now I know you'll say this is a problem with our Dáil and it is. But the likes of Lowry and Healy-Rae are in a great position right now as the government needs their support.

If they manage to get "goodies" for their areas maybe voters will look on and want this also.

Over 20 years on and people still mention the Gregory deal

God I hope not. Its that kind of thing that has us in the mess we are in now, continuing with it would drag us down even further. Thankfully the IMF is here now to save us from ourselves.