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Strategies for a crisis

  • 16-11-2010 3:41pm
    #1
    Mr Marri
    Closed Accounts Posts: 266 ✭✭


    Do economist have a play book?

    At the moment the responce to the current crisis (as an example) appears to be very ham fisted, I find it hard to believe that it can be as bad as it appears.
    With the advances in game theory, computer power etc that surely some level of simulation/modelling has been used. So is this all an extremely sofisticated act? with move and counter move played out with several degrees of depth and for thought?

    I supposed what I'm asking is how sophisticated/strategic is the science of economics at the moment?


Comments

  • #2
    Économiste Monétaire
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,208 ✭✭✭Économiste Monétaire


    Ham-fisted response on the part of politicians? That has nothing to do with us. What area of economics are you referring to? Sophistication (if you measure that by mathematical complexity) varies by sub-field, especially with areas like theoretical econometrics and financial economics, e.g., partial information stochastic optimal control problems with jump diffusions. Computational limitations for high dimensional problems still apply to macro modelling, as they do for, say, mechanism design.


  • #3
    Mr Marri
    Closed Accounts Posts: 266 ✭✭Mr Marri


    Apologies, sophistication was the wrong word. I appricate that all simulation have their limitation, philisopical, mathimatical, numermical, computational etc. And even with my very limited knowledge of economics I can appricate the extreme complexity of the problem but without a structured approach are we not reduced to a game of pin the tail on the donkey.

    Have you guys got a play book i.e. if we end up in x situation then y responce is the best option. and how did you come up with this playbook.

    Is there some economics mastermind in ireland crunching the number/theories and instructing the goverment or is it really left to the minster/CS to make all the calls :eek:, if so, the poor b**tard.


  • #4
    Mr Marri
    Closed Accounts Posts: 266 ✭✭Mr Marri


    I've just reread my post and I don't mean to come across as offensive or derogatory, I just lack tact of any kind :o.


  • #5
    Économiste Monétaire
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,208 ✭✭✭Économiste Monétaire


    Your questions are very general, so it's not easy to give a yes/no answer. A quick and dirty answer: No, there is no all encompassing, definitive 'playbook' that one receives upon completion of an economics programme. The overall approach in macro has been formed over the last 70-80 years, through empirical and theoretical scholarship; to what practical value this study has amounted is another issue. If you're asking about macro modelling, that's mostly done by the ESRI and the Irish central bank.

    It's ultimately up to the government of the day to choose a course of action, not economists.


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