What will it take to sort Ireland out?

Daniel S

What will it take to sort out the mess we're in? Can any of the current parties do it or will radical parties emerge? What are Fianna Fáil doing, that they can let this happen? It's like they're purposly choosing the wrong thing to do.

Any idea on when the next general election is?

What are the chances and consequences of Ireland being pushed out of the Euro?

Your opinion?

ei.sdraob

bankruptcy and ejection out of euro

2 years into this crisis and no lessons have been learned, witness the parish pump politics still in action up in donegal

the average person still doesn't realise the severity of the situation

Daniel S

ei.sdraob wrote: »

bankruptcy and ejection out of euro

2 years into this crisis and no lessons have been learned, witness the parish pump politics still in action up in donegal

the average person still doesn't realise the severity of the situation

That's kind of my point, I don't understand the severity of the situation

oppenheimer1

ei.sdraob wrote: »

bankruptcy and ejection out of euro

2 years into this crisis and no lessons have been learned, witness the parish pump politics still in action up in donegal

the average person still doesn't realise the severity of the situation

Hyperbole much? :rolleyes: Its the above nonsense thats getting the Irish forums a bad name in the press as hotbeds of fearmongering.

Utter nonsense, Ireland won't go bankrupt or be ejected from the euro.

Bog

ei.sdraob wrote: »

the average person still doesn't realise the severity of the situation

Condescending much?

oppenheimer1

Bog wrote: »

Condescending much?

Ironically he doesn't understand the situation either if he believes what he posted.

ei.sdraob

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

Hyperbole much? :rolleyes: Its the above nonsense thats getting the Irish forums a bad name in the press as hotbeds of fearmongering.

Utter nonsense, Ireland won't go bankrupt or be ejected from the euro.

I never said that

How about you slow down and learn to read :rolleyes:

I said thats what it take for the people this country to wake up, we still have 20% of people supporting FF

I dont think that we will be ejected, tho our position is getting more and more painful, if anything we be bailed out be europe
but
that bailouts create moral hazards and will reward FF

Bog wrote: »

Condescending much?

nope just lost patience

Goodluck2me

ei.sdraob wrote: »

I said thats what it take for the people this country to wake up, we still have 20% of people supporting FF

I don't think that is such a crime per se, as there are still some very good politicians who are part of Fianna fail, you can't tar them all with the same brush.

There are plenty terrible, dishonest and downright incompetent members of both parties. There are plenty people in Fianna Fail who would do a much better job than Joan Bruton, if god forbid, she was made minister for finance, but there are also many many people who would do a much better job than Cowen et al.

I think that if you focus on the candidate more so than the party the country would be in much better shape

cavedave

oppenheimer1
Utter nonsense, Ireland won't go bankrupt or be ejected from the euro.

Bankruptcy is a legally declared inability or impairment of ability of an individual or organization to pay its creditors.

The markets seem to suggest the probability of a default is over 50%

What odds do you put on default or did you really mean 'won't'?

oppenheimer1

cavedave wrote: »

The markets seem to suggest the probability of a default is over 50%

What odds do you put on default or did you really mean 'won't'?

Its highly improbable that Ireland will default. One can never say never of course, the world doesn't operate in certainties, however Ireland has access to mechanisms to prevent default, namely the EU/IMF fund.

There is an example of the irrationality of the markets if you needed one.

ei.sdraob

cavedave wrote: »

The markets seem to suggest the probability of a default is over 50%

What odds do you put on default or did you really mean 'won't'?

Careful now, thats the guy who kept on telling us how great NAMA will turn out to be, he is gone very quiet now on the subject.

He was also demanding I apologise about starting a thread about more money being funnelled into NAMA

read for yourselves

Even my most pessimistic estimates in that thread came waaaay below the 29-34 billion latest (god knows it aint final) figure for Anglo. Oppenheimer was of course too optimistic

He is often here on boards defending FF, NAMA and Anglo
they must pay well

cavedave

ei.sdraob fair enough reporting someones statements in the past that have turned out accurate/inaccurate.

I think your last comment is unfair. You have to assume the people you are debating are honestly expressing their beliefs. I doubt the three parties you mentioned even know boards.ie exists never mind care about us.

oppenheimer1 I presume EU/IMF will have some write downs which would count as a default.

Count Dooku

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

Its highly improbable that Ireland will default. One can never say never of course, the world doesn't operate in certainties, however Ireland has access to mechanisms to prevent default, namely the EU/IMF fund.

In case of mass default on mortgages after expected tax increases even EU/IMF will be not able to handle 500 Bn bailout

ei.sdraob

cavedave wrote: »

ei.sdraob fair enough reporting someones statements in the past that have turned out accurate/inaccurate.

I think your last comment is unfair. You have to assume the people you are debating are honestly expressing their beliefs. I doubt the three parties you mentioned even know boards.ie exists never mind care about us.

oppenheimer1 I presume EU/IMF will have some write downs which would count as a default.

You are right, tho

The guy jumped on me in this thread (and many other before) trying to byte my head off ( getting rather tiring now) for expressing my opinion that no lessons have been learned in this crisis, and it would take a catastrophe for some to learn.
He didn't read what I posted, granted I should have expressed myself better, and proceeded with his usual attacks.

edit: to get back on thread and answer the OPs question, it will take the people of Ireland to wake up first so we can get on the path of sorting the country out

oppenheimer1

cavedave wrote: »

ei.sdraob fair enough reporting someones statements in the past that have turned out accurate/inaccurate.

I think your last comment is unfair. You have to assume the people you are debating are honestly expressing their beliefs. I doubt the three parties you mentioned even know boards.ie exists never mind care about us.

oppenheimer1 I presume EU/IMF will have some write downs which would count as a default.

Its a matter of opinion of course, but I don't think they will force us to restructure the debt. This is especially the case if its the EU fund that is tapped rather than the IMF as restructuring or defaulting would damage the credibility of the euro and further increase our reliance on the bailout fund. Hopefully of course it won't come to that.

oppenheimer1

Count Dooku wrote: »

In case of mass default on mortgages after expected tax increases even EU/IMF will be not able to handle 500 Bn bailout

You assume that there is no money at all in the Irish economy, which isn't true. Savings have increased from a normal level of 4% for a developed economy to a massive 14%. The Irish are de-leveraging at a great pace. A mass default on mortgages is unlikely as it would be financially ruinous for the individuals involved. They wouldn't get credit anywhere ever again.

Inquitus

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

You assume that there is no money at all in the Irish economy, which isn't true. Savings have increased from a normal level of 4% for a developed economy to a massive 14%. The Irish are de-leveraging at a great pace. A mass default on mortgages is unlikely as it would be financially ruinous for the individuals involved. They wouldn't get credit anywhere ever again.

Clearly the people saving aren't the ones likely to be behind on their mortgage.......

Personally I eat out much less often now, rarely get taxis, take a pack lunch to work, among many other things, and so do alot of people I know. I am spending way less than I used to and saving some money, but that's mainly due to planning for an uncertain future, and without a shadow of a doubt I have less disposable income now than I did 3 years ago.

bryaner

Another doom and gloom thread fcuking brilliant. :rolleyes:

Count Dooku

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

You assume that there is no money at all in the Irish economy, which isn't true. Savings have increased from a normal level of 4% for a developed economy to a massive 14%. The Irish are de-leveraging at a great pace. A mass default on mortgages is unlikely as it would be financially ruinous for the individuals involved. They wouldn't get credit anywhere ever again.

There is no money and we owe more then we have
Bank of Ireland Falls as Loan-To-Deposit Ratio Rises to 160%

The bank’s shares fell 3.7 percent to 37 cents at 9:29 a.m., the lowest in more than 19 months. Bank of Ireland’s loan- to-deposit ratio rose to about 160 percent from 145 percent on June 30, as the Dublin-based lender used “contingent collateral to obtain replacement funding, primarily from monetary authorities,” it said in a statement today.

Of most concern is a deterioration in the funding position caused by deposit outflows,” said Ciaran Callaghan, an analyst with Dublin-based NCB Stockbrokers. The analyst estimated that the change in the bank’s loan-to-deposit ratio “implies outflows of over 10 billion euros” ($13.7 billion).

oppenheimer1

mtb_kng wrote: »

What will it take to sort Ireland out?

Your opinion?

ei.sdraob wrote: »

bankruptcy and ejection out of euro

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

Hyperbole much? :rolleyes: Its the above nonsense thats getting the Irish forums a bad name in the press as hotbeds of fearmongering.

Utter nonsense, Ireland won't go bankrupt or be ejected from the euro.

ei.sdraob wrote: »

You are right, tho

The guy jumped on me in this thread (and many other before) trying to byte my head off ( getting rather tiring now) for expressing my opinion that no lessons have been learned in this crisis, and it would take a catastrophe for some to learn.
He didn't read what I posted, granted I should have expressed myself better, and proceeded with his usual attacks.

The question asked by the OP was what will it take for Ireland to recover, not what will it take for the people of Ireland to realise the mess the countrys finances are in. It was a perfectly reasonable assumption to assume your first line of your post was your answer to the OPs question.

Well done on digging up my post history btw, as you will see I countered the arguments made against me as a sympathiser of FF and Anglo. http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=67667565&postcount=52

Wrt NAMA it is too early to tell whether the venture will be a success or not, however as the project has the ability to sit on property for an infinite period I would expect it to be profitable. They recently made a sale which the property made a €90m return for them.

Indeed if I was a FF supporter I would hardly have laid the blame for the crisis at the government would I? http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=68673385&postcount=40

DERICKOO

European officials are encouraging Ireland to accept a bailout to restore confidence in its solvency and stop the spread of financial-market turbulence to other euro-zone members, according to senior European Union officials.
Many European policy makers increasingly believe that early action on Ireland would be better than waiting until markets force the country's hand, recalling that repeated delays in coming to Greece's aid earlier this year led to a near-collapse of investor confidence in the whole euro zone, officials say.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703560504575612593174135232.html?mod=WSJ_hp_MIDDLETopStoriesand
Portuguese foreign minister Luis Amado has suggested his country might need to leave the eurozone if it cannot come to agreement on an austerity budget, according to


http://www.businessinsider.com/portuguese-foreign-minister-says-country-may-need-to-leave-euro-2010-11 :eek:

oppenheimer1

Count Dooku wrote: »

There is no money and we owe more then we have
Bank of Ireland Falls as Loan-To-Deposit Ratio Rises to 160%

All that shows is that people are moving their cash out of BOI, no thanks to threads here questioning the stability of the sector. What it doesn't show anything about is the rate people (mortgage holders) are saving at.

ei.sdraob

increase in savings? the total line been in negative for 2 years now

Mister men

ei.sdraob wrote: »

bankruptcy and ejection out of euro

2 years into this crisis and no lessons have been learned, witness the parish pump politics still in action up in donegal

the average person still doesn't realise the severity of the situation

They will in a few months time when there is no cash in ATM's and no money for social welfare payments. Things are only beginning to warm up tbh.

Cavehill Red

What we need to do is default on ALL non-depositor bank guarantees immediately.

It's not our debt and we shouldn't pay it.

Our deficit is tough but manageable with the planned austerity measures, but we're sunk no matter what we do if we don't amputate the gangrenous banks from the state. They're going to drag us under.

Laminations

What will it take to save us?

A political enema.
Clean the **** out

flutered

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

You assume that there is no money at all in the Irish economy, which isn't true. Savings have increased from a normal level of 4% for a developed economy to a massive 14%. The Irish are de-leveraging at a great pace. A mass default on mortgages is unlikely as it would be financially ruinous for the individuals involved. They wouldn't get credit anywhere ever again.

a lot of these people do not or will not give a fiddlers about credit, they are burnt, they are now educated, they now have to live within their means, if this means paying rent, doing without holidays, et al et al then that is what they will do, in five years time either one partner or the other will be able to get credit, that is assuming that they want (need ) it.

Ulysses Gaze

Goodluck2me wrote: »

I don't think that is such a crime per se, as there are still some very good politicians who are part of Fianna fail, you can't tar them all with the same brush.

There are plenty terrible, dishonest and downright incompetent members of both parties. There are plenty people in Fianna Fail who would do a much better job than Joan Bruton, if god forbid, she was made minister for finance, but there are also many many people who would do a much better job than Cowen et al.

I think that if you focus on the candidate more so than the party the country would be in much better shape

Lol....like who? None of the FF front bench are capable of doing the job.

ludeen

Mister men wrote: »

They will in a few months time when there is no cash in ATM's and no money for social welfare payments. Things are only beginning to warm up tbh.

In fairness Mm, chicken little quotes aren"t going to help
anyone. Are Greek ATMs empty? , we're a long way
from that scenario [imo], Europe need to stop cotagion
or the whole Euro goes, lets not panic yet eh.

Count Dooku

ludeen wrote: »

In fairness Mm, chicken little quotes aren"t going to help
anyone. Are Greek ATMs empty? , we're a long way
from that scenario [imo], Europe need to stop cotagion
or the whole Euro goes, lets not panic yet eh.

"Bolivar cannot carry double" (C) O Henry
Europe could save Greeks alone, but not all PIGS together

Sleepy

Goodluck2me wrote: »

I don't think that is such a crime per se, as there are still some very good politicians who are part of Fianna fail, you can't tar them all with the same brush.

There are plenty terrible, dishonest and downright incompetent members of both parties. There are plenty people in Fianna Fail who would do a much better job than Joan Bruton, if god forbid, she was made minister for finance, but there are also many many people who would do a much better job than Cowen et al.

I think that if you focus on the candidate more so than the party the country would be in much better shape

And how does that work in a country where parliamentary voting is based on a whip system?

Your argument is the exact reason we've so many gob****es in the Dail and the reason some parties still exist. You could have Nelson Mandela, JFK, Margaret Thatcher, Karl Marx and Adam Smith running for Fianna Fail in your local constituency and, regardless of your political ideaology, none of them would be worth voting for. The party is run by gombeen men, for gombeen men and good candidates will just be forced to either toe the party line or will quit.

The great tragedy is that the main opposition have shown themselves to be not that much better in the recent failed coup against Kenny. As much as I like Kenny himself, his support base within the party seems to be very much of the old guard "protect the farmers and the Catholic Church at all costs" Fianna Gael rather than the most attractive group (to me) in Irish politics - the fiscally conservative, economically literate wing of the party.

You can't just vote for the man in Irish politics because the individual is unimportant unless he or she happens to be in the (shadow) cabinet because the party leader wants them there (rather than someone the leaders let into the cabinet as a sop to a different faction of the party than their own).

You're voting for party in Ireland whether you like it or not.

flutered

goodluck2me, to claim that joan burton has no idea of economics, shows the dff viewpoint for what it is.

feicim

“Ireland is an enormously important trading partner with Britain. It’s a fact that we actually export more to Ireland than we do to Brazil, Russia, India and China combined.

Source (David Cameron UK Prime Minister)

What are these massive amounts of exports from the UK to Ireland, and why can't we provide Irish employment and make this stuff here?

I can understand how we can't be as competitive as China for stuff but surely we could compare with the UK???

Are these imports stuff made in low cost regions like china/india/indonesia etc with a UK label on it, or is it stuff produced in the UK itself?

mgmt

feicim wrote: »

Source (David Cameron UK Prime Minister)

What are these massive amounts of exports from the UK to Ireland, and why can't we provide Irish employment and make this stuff here?

I can understand how we can't be as competitive as China for stuff but surely we could compare with the UK???

Are these imports stuff made in low cost regions like china/india/indonesia etc with a UK label on it, or is it stuff produced in the UK itself?

Sainsbury in Newry.

De Dannan

It will take more than an election to sort us out. Probably it will take a change of constitution and the way politicians operate. They all seem to be self serving and national politics is not top of their agenda

murphy93

Collect all our tax from offshore funds. Probably around 1 billion a year.
collect all corporation tax from business that trade in ireland no more Offshore nameplates in switzerland or other dodgy countries anymore.
Stop wasting public moniy on wacky or expensive projests. Reduce salaries of all public / civil servants to a max of 100k. limit any future increases to monetary amonts say 500 euro rather than percentages.
Ask the Vatican to help us they must have made billions from Irish givers and trading here.
Get more tourists

jimmycrackcorm

mtb_kng wrote: »

What will it take to sort out the mess we're in?
Your opinion?

Cut Public Service salaries by 30% and reform Social welfare over a period of 5 years. Widen the tax base and re-engineer taxation to stability. Not that hard, just unpalatable like any medicine worth taking.

Joey leBlanc

Ban Fianna Fail from party politics! Lenihan's vampire look & dulcet polished tones are becoming quite annoying. You're not a barrister anymore buddy. Cowen reminds me of the fat kid in your class at school with snot on his sleeves & nobody could understand; you thought he was a swot but eventually realised he was thick when he had to repeat a couple of yrs. Mary Coughlan: an uncouth, rough as ol' boots wagon; the sort of gal you see holding up the bar at the end of the nite on their own f-ing & blinding.

The only redeeming thing I can think off about this whole mess is the fact that it will never be allowed to happen again. Time for some expertise to come to bear in our government. I'd like to hear Michael O'Leary's ideas.

jimmycrackcorm

Joey leBlanc wrote: »

I'd like to hear Michael O'Leary's ideas.

A 1 Euro tax on using your toilet would fix our deficit; The perfect kind of tax - universal, unavoidable and stable.