Balance of power after next election

Madd Finn

If a general election were to be held in the next three months, who would be the main power brokers at the end of it?

My guess is this is going to see a major shift to local-issue independents. With Fianna Fail the most busted of busted flushes..
With the Greens getting the kick in the bollix that junior partners always get when the public swings against outgoing coalitions..
With Inda lacking any credibility with large parts of his own party, let alone the public at large..
And with people suddenly realising just before polling day that Labour is now just the Stickies in better suits...

..there is likely to be no overall majority for any of the traditional parties or familiar coalition partner groupings.

Who will the deals have to be done with?

Madd Finn

Hmm. Was hoping to add a poll for this. Are polls not allowed in this forum?

Or is it just me?

Madd Finn

OK. The poll is on the After Hours Forum.

Mods please lock.

Bottle_of_Smoke

Madd Finn wrote: »

OK. The poll is on the After Hours Forum.

Mods please lock.

Would you not value discussion of the balance of power here than a poll somewhere where most people are voting for the laugh?

electrogrimey

It's kind of inevitably a Fine Gael & Labour coalition no? Labour being the smaller party.

In the last elections Labour were by far the biggest party in Dublin (Leinster too? Don't remember), but the rest of the country will more than likely vote Fine Gael.

My prediction:

Labour will get a few important ministers, but it'll be mainly Fine Gael. Greens will be decimated, a la the PDs, and Fianna Fáil will go down to about Labour levels in the Bertie era.

Independents will probably be quite important, which in my opinion is a bit part of what is wrong with Irish politics. It'd be nice to see the good, more liberal independents and maybe some ex-green etc politicians to group together in a new liberal democratic party, which could turn into a respectable liberal opposition. That won't happen though.

Bottle_of_Smoke

If there's election in the coming months yes it will be FG/Labour. Prob won't need support of independents. If it takes longer I wouldn't rule out Labour/Sinn Fein + other beardy types making a coalition of the left.

electrogrimey

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote: »

If there's election in the coming months yes it will be FG/Labour. Prob won't need support of independents. If it takes longer I wouldn't rule out Labour/Sinn Fein + other beardy types making a coalition of the left.

It would be nice to have a liberal minority in the coalition, to balance out Fine Gael. The Greens were supposed to be that for this government but failed miserably.