Wexford Election Speculation

wexxford

As it is all over the national news, how do people think wexford will vote in the next election. Will we follow the national trend? Will fianna fail keep their general stronghold? Could Labour win two seats or could fine gael get 3?? Who do people expect to run?

I for one dont think fianna fail will lose out as much here as they will do nationally and could still hold their two seats with good vote management. I cant see FG getting three seats tbh however two for labour is a real possibility imo.

Judgement Day

I wonder will 'Save the Rail' be fielding candidates? Or perhaps I should say will one or two of the Save the Rail people who have raised their profiles through the campaign be on various party tickets. :rolleyes:

bmaxi

I think John "15 grand is no big deal" Browne and Seán "show me a bandwagon I can jump on" Connick might have their work cut out this time. In 2007, FF got 2½ quotas with 42% of the vote, if the national trend plays out I can't see them getting 1½ this time. Labour don't have a realistic running mate for Howlin and this might help FF.
FG will almost certainly hold two seats but Liam Twomey probably has a good chance of taking one of the FF seats. John Dwyer, if he manages to ditch the SF baggage and runs as an independent could seriously damage FF but I can't see him making it.
I would say
FG 3
Labour 1
FF 1 (probably Browne)

Judgement Day

What about Labour's Save the Rail councillor? None of the sitting on their holes TDs deserve a single vote - all any of them have done is line their own pockets for decades. That said a large proportion of the Irish electorate should be disenfranchised as they are incapable of rational voting. Who the **** cares that x was in the GPO in Courtown in 1916 - that was then and this is now!

bmaxi

Judgement Day wrote: »

What about Labour's Save the Rail councillor? None of the sitting on their holes TDs deserve a single vote - all any of them have done is line their own pockets for decades. That said a large proportion of the Irish electorate should be disenfranchised as they are incapable of rational voting. Who the **** cares that x was in the GPO in Courtown in 1916 - that was then and this is now!

I agree with your sentiments but unfortunately that's the choice we're going to have, unless somebody comes up with a credible alternative between now and the GE.

BTW, when did they move the GPO out of Courtown? I can never get a stamp when I need one.

Badabing

If there was an election it would be as you were 2 ff 2 fg 1 lab, Labour if they ran the right candidtate might grab a 2nd seat. Jumpship Twomey won't get a seat mainly because Fine Gael in Wexford don't like him.

Judgement Day

Badabing wrote: »

If there was an election it would be as you were 2 ff 2 fg 1 lab, Labour if they ran the right candidtate might grab a 2nd seat. Jumpship Twomey won't get a seat mainly because Fine Gael in Wexford don't like him.

I'm sure you're probably correct but can you explain the mentality of anyone who votes for the criminals FF again?

bmaxi

Badabing wrote: »

If there was an election it would be as you were 2 ff 2 fg 1 lab, Labour if they ran the right candidtate might grab a 2nd seat. Jumpship Twomey won't get a seat mainly because Fine Gael in Wexford don't like him.

I'd say he'll be on the ticket though, doesn't make sense having him on the ticket if he has no chance. Why have him "resting" in the Seanad?

Dinkie

I voted FF last time and won't be voting for them this time. I dislike Lisa McDonald as a politician and don't think too much of the rest of them either.

I think they will lose most their seats this time round. Don't think the FG guys are up to much either.

Forgetting 'save the rails' - think some one will run as a a 'save the hospital'. Possibly an independent.

Will probably end up voting for labour and not sure who else. TBH if Dustin was running, I'd probably just give him my vote (even though I know it would be a failed ballot). I have lost complete confidence in ALL our politicians.

Either way, I'm looking forward to them coming around canvassing! :D

theforum

Any further thoughts on the political shake up in Wexford after the election. Looks like we'll have one before March.

Would it be inconceivable that 2 FF seats would be returned? I never thought they were worth voting for before and wouldnt even give them my last preference now. Somehow though John Browne manages to top the poll no matter what!

Labour hav two candidates in Coady and Howlin now. Will be interesting to see how Coady fares on his first outing. Probably a bit too much to expect that hed be in the running for a seat but you never know if theres a Gilmore gale.

FG should have a decent shot at a third seat this time round. Two secure looking deputies in Darcy and Kehoe and Twomey has a good profile and has gotten to the Dail before. Now or never for FG.

Dwyer is running as an independent under the left alliance wing (i think). Hard to know what his prospects are.

Are there any other candidates declared? Do SF and the GP have anyone?

Should be interesting!

Judgement Day

Why interesting? There isn't a worthwhile candidate amongst the lot of them.

theforum

Judgement Day wrote: »

Why interesting? There isn't a worthwhile candidate amongst the lot of them.

Well interesting I suppose because we should see a massive political shake up nationally and hopefully in Wexford too.

I agree that there isnt much to choose from but I guess we have to go for the best of what is available. Unfortunately a lot of people in Wexford seem to find it hard to look beyond the parish pump which has left us with some very average politicians over the last few decades.

Probably naive of me to hope that people might finally move away from this given our economic woes at the moment!

theforum

Local radio reporting today that FG selected Kehoe Twomey and Darcy at their convention last night.

Twomey got over half the votes which is quite a surprise.

jpb1974

Should be interesting!

I don't find it interesting at all.

Politics has become almost homogeneous in this country... put on your suit, say the right things, show up at the right places, shake the right hands, tow the party line, lambaste the opposition, come up with new tax names as an excuse to raise funds to pay bills and grind your nuts on the fence in all other situations (sorry ladies).

It's not exciting at all... in fact it's just a monotonous cycle. I don't really understand why people get overly excited about it... effectively your appointing a board of directors who are supposed to run the country like a company for all intensive purposes... there's very little exciting about that.

It really doesn't matter who is elected... nothing really ever changes.

"I don't vote"

"Then you don't have a say"

I don't seem to have a phucking say anyway so I really couldn't be bothered me arse anymore.

Seanachai

bmaxi wrote: »

John Dwyer, if he manages to ditch the SF baggage and runs as an independent could seriously damage FF but I can't see him making it.

I've read online that John Dwyer is running as an independent with the United Left Alliance. Does anybody know if this is true?.

jd

Seanachai wrote: »

I've read online that John Dwyer is running as an independent with the United Left Alliance. Does anybody know if this is true?.

Seamus O'Brien is running under the ULA banner.
http://redwexford.wordpress.com/


John Dwyer may stand as an Independent.

Murtinho

jpb1974 wrote: »

"I don't vote"
"Then you don't have a say"I don't seem to have a phucking say anyway so I really couldn't be bothered me arse anymore.

Agreed, ive never voted as i lived abroad and this is my first election home, they all seem as useless as each other. At the moment my plan is to spoil my vote, rather than just not vote. Politicians in this country are utterly useless and hell bent on getting into/ staying in power rather than doing something usefull.

mrkr

It's amazing how successfully FF manage to spread the blame around, "ah sure, they're all the same", blah blah blah; people get what they deserve.

I'll be surprised and disappointed if FF do not lose a seat, preferably John Browne's, though it is hard to be clear on who'd be in the prime place to take it, so they could sneak two back.

bmaxi

mrkr wrote: »

It's amazing how successfully FF manage to spread the blame around, "ah sure, they're all the same", blah blah blah; people get what they deserve.

I'll be surprised and disappointed if FF do not lose a seat, preferably John Browne's, though it is hard to be clear on who'd be in the prime place to take it, so they could sneak two back.

Liam Twomey could conceivably take Browne's seat. I think that's the reason why Browne went apoplectic over the announcement about St. Senan's the other day.

theforum

bmaxi wrote: »

Liam Twomey could conceivably take Browne's seat. I think that's the reason why Browne went apoplectic over the announcement about St. Senan's the other day.

Probably true to say that the hospital issue in Wexford is more of an issue this time round than it was in 2007. This should serve Twomey well if he can tap into it like he did in 2002. From what I gather hes been holding a number of health meetings throughout the county.

theforum

I see Gilmore is down in Wicklow/Wexford today. I wonder will he offer Howlin the Ceann Comhairle job now or after the election?!

Judgement Day

theforum wrote: »

I see Gilmore is down in Wicklow/Wexford today. I wonder will he offer Howlin the Ceann Comhairle job now or after the election?!

Assuming that Howlin is elected, the Ceann Comhairle's job would at least keep him out of harms way as he is a total waste of space.

wexxford

Any word on when the FF convention is to be held or if Browne has agreed for it to be held yet? Also any ideas as to how many candidates they are planning to run?

oldyouth

theforum wrote: »

Probably true to say that the hospital issue in Wexford is more of an issue this time round than it was in 2007. This should serve Twomey well if he can tap into it like he did in 2002. From what I gather hes been holding a number of health meetings throughout the county.

Twomey ran as an independant in 2002 on the hospital platform and I, like others, gave him a 1st preference. Then the shagger almost immediately joined FG. I'm glad he lost his seat next time around and I hope people remember when the time comes. He doesn't care about local issues, he has an eye on personal progress.

wexxford

oldyouth wrote: »

Twomey ran as an independant in 2002 on the hospital platform and I, like others, gave him a 1st preference. Then the shagger almost immediately joined FG. I'm glad he lost his seat next time around and I hope people remember when the time comes. He doesn't care about local issues, he has an eye on personal progress.

In fairness to Twomey he did give it almost two and a half years before he switched, hardly "immediately". I believe his biggest fault was his naivety in believing he could make a difference as an independent.

theforum

wexxford wrote: »

In fairness to Twomey he did give it almost two and a half years before he switched, hardly "immediately". I believe his biggest fault was his naivety in believing he could make a difference as an independent.

I dont think the switching thing is much of an issue anymore. The people of Wexford will be looking to pick the candidates which are most likely to make a difference to the county at a national level in the next Dail. Twomey and Howlin are the only ones with a chance of a ministry of some description after the election.

The days of Independents ruling the roost are thankfully nearly at an end!

Judgement Day

theforum wrote: »

I dont think the switching thing is much of an issue anymore. The people of Wexford will be looking to pick the candidates which are most likely to make a difference to the county at a national level in the next Dail. Twomey and Howlin are the only ones with a chance of a ministry of some description after the election.

The days of Independents ruling the roost are thankfully nearly at an end!

Oh yes, much better to vote for party hacks who will blindly vote the party line and to hell with the electorate. :rolleyes: As for Howlin what has he ever done for the county or country for that matter - a smug little git IMO.

theforum

Judgement Day wrote: »

Oh yes, much better to vote for party hacks who will blindly vote the party line and to hell with the electorate. :rolleyes: As for Howlin what has he ever done for the county or country for that matter - a smug little git IMO.

Oh come on!? The independents like Lowry and Healy Rae have held this country to ransom for the last 20 years. When you vote for a party politician at least you have a good idea of what they stand for and what they will look to do for the country as opposed to your own back yard.

As for Howlin, while he may be Ceann Comhairle in the next Dail at least he is close to the leadership of the Labour party.

sundula

I dont think Browne will run again, but if he does i hope the people of Wexford have the sense to kick him out. No doubt FF will get at least one seat and probably Connick as he is 'new'. Browne has had his fun, issued his ''please look favourably on this planning application" letters and should clear off. He has done nothing for this county and if he decides to push his son forward then i hope he doesnt make it either.

bmaxi

Connick's constant "I'm part of a new breed in FF" in an effort to distance himself from the meltdown, turns my stomach. He has supported every move made by Cowen and Co. since he entered the Dáil, nobody gets any sort of Ministry from the FF hierarchy without being a good little chap.
He's just another example of the absence of any sort of integrity among this shower of criminals.

WexfordWarrior

who the hell is the best person to vote for then... im sorry but the parish pump tactics have to rule on this occasion in my mind... wexford is in a complete mess... wexford town needs investment badly...then we have the roads issue alongside the total lack of ideas and vision by anyone with any bit of authority or pull in the place.

1800's thinking in 21st century times ! all investment and business is focused on waterford we are getting the **** end of the stick as usual... it sucks ass big time and im sick of it... whoever will do somthing for wexford gets my vote becausee on a national level nobody cares about wexford or its people and were getting sucker punched every time.

our hospital in bits, st.senans gone, zero incentives to get business back up and running in the place and even less promotion of the county in general.

i dont care if you accuse of parish pump tactics ... nobody else gives a dam and if the people of wexford dont stick up for themselves who else will...

whoever brings employment, infrastructure and builds the WEXFORD ECONOMY gets my vote.... because im Wexican First, Irish Second! simple as that.

theforum

WexfordWarrior wrote: »

who the hell is the best person to vote for then... im sorry but the parish pump tactics have to rule on this occasion in my mind... wexford is in a complete mess... wexford town needs investment badly...then we have the roads issue alongside the total lack of ideas and vision by anyone with any bit of authority or pull in the place.

1800's thinking in 21st century times ! all investment and business is focused on waterford we are getting the **** end of the stick as usual... it sucks ass big time and im sick of it... whoever will do somthing for wexford gets my vote becausee on a national level nobody cares about wexford or its people and were getting sucker punched every time.

our hospital in bits, st.senans gone, zero incentives to get business back up and running in the place and even less promotion of the county in general.

i dont care if you accuse of parish pump tactics ... nobody else gives a dam and if the people of wexford dont stick up for themselves who else will...

whoever brings employment, infrastructure and builds the WEXFORD ECONOMY gets my vote.... because im Wexican First, Irish Second! simple as that.

Well Wexford Warrior, at least you know what you want!

I think most people from Wexford would agree with your analysis. However, as is said, a rising tide lifts all boats! If someone is good at national level then Wexford will experience the benefit at local level.

Theres no point in returning the same old faces with the same old "hows your father?" attidude. Its gotten us nowhere in the past and wont in the future. The parish pump has a lot to answer for in Wexford!

It looks at the moment that Fine Gael and Labour will be in government after March 11th.

Your choices are basically Liam Twomey, Brendan Howlin and Paul Kehoe.

Only these three are likely to be in the same room as the cabinet table. FG and Labour in the past have given us ministers. We live in hope that they'll do so again. God knows we need one....or two!

Judgement Day

theforum wrote: »

Well Wexford Warrior, at least you know what you want!

I think most people from Wexford would agree with your analysis. However, as is said, a rising tide lifts all boats! If someone is good at national level then Wexford will experience the benefit at local level.

Theres no point in returning the same old faces with the same old "hows your father?" attidude. Its gotten us nowhere in the past and wont in the future. The parish pump has a lot to answer for in Wexford!

It looks at the moment that Fine Gael and Labour will be in government after March 11th.

Your choices are basically Liam Twomey, Brendan Howlin and Paul Kehoe.

Only these three are likely to be in the same room as the cabinet table. FG and Labour in the past have given us ministers. We live in hope that they'll do so again. God knows we need one....or two!

What exactly would these three do for the county? Howlin has been in government before and I don't see any great legacy. Ivan Yates was a minister and I don't see his legacy either. FF/FG/Labour indistinguishable, the Greens unelectable (if they even had a candidate down here) - I think I'll stay at home on March 11th.

Zhane

Judgement Day wrote: »

What exactly would these three do for the county? Howlin has been in government before and I don't see any great legacy. Ivan Yates was a minister and I don't see his legacy either. FF/FG/Labour indistinguishable, the Greens unelectable (if they even had a candidate down here) - I think I'll stay at home on March 11th.

But surely casting a vote will be beneficial, we will never know if you dont vote for these people. Its all very good saying, who will do better, but the question is 'can they do any worse!'. A change is a good thing, and is what this county and indeed the country needs.

Judgement Day

I'm 51 and I've always voted but I remember the last FG/Labour government and it was no great shakes. I've seen enough crooks in FG and Labour to be fairly cynical of them too, so what do you suggest?

theforum

At the very least exercise your democratic right to vote. As Zhane said we could hardly do any worse with a new team in place.

Yates was only a minister for about 3 years - during that time the dept of agriculture was decentralised to Johnstown castle, funding was found for a new fire station, garda station and swimming pool in Enniscorthy. Urban Renewal was introduced into many parts of a stagnant Wexford. Wexford General hospital was upgraded. Howlin served at this time too and i'm sure there are other improvements which were brought to wexford during that government.

What have we got with the outgoing lot??

Judgement Day

While Yates and Co. may have taken credit for the new garda station/fire station etc. I wonder how much they actually did to realise these developments? Anyway how about some employment? How about the reopening of the South Wexford Railway line? How about the mothballed plan to develop Johnstown Castle (the building) as a major tourist attraction? The county is ****ed as is the entire country and I would be long gone if it wasn't for my family. Don't vote it only encourages them.

jd

If you don't vote or stand for election, you are in no position to complain..

Zhane

jd wrote: »

If you don't vote or stand for election, you are in no position to complain..

Very true!

Judgement Day

jd wrote: »

If you don't vote or stand for election, you are in no position to complain..

That's as maybe and what I've been saying for years myself but the bastards have worn me down and I just can't be arsed anymore.

bmaxi

I can't understand why people won't vote. If you don't vote and somebody else does, it just means that somebody else is making your decisions for you. There will still be a Government, you just won't have had any part in it's make up. If they go on to fcuk up the country, you can't say "well I didn't vote for them" because you didn't vote against them either.
All the political parties have a core support and you can be sure those people will go out and vote. These will be people in your neighbourhood, probably your neighbours and they will be making the decision as to whether your children have schools, hospitals, libraries etc. not you. We have got to take a positive attitude to politics, what's the alternative?
The current crop of politicians was brought about by people voting for tradition, I recently heard one person refer to a FG candidate as a "blueshirt". FFS, what century are we living in, is this the "forward thinking" that's going to save us?? No, this is the type of bigoted, backward thinking that gives us the politicians we have. I don't give a fcuk if John won ten county medals with Wexford hurlers, so what! that only means he can hit a ball with a stick, it doesn't mean there's any brains between his ears, or if he is going to be any use in the Dáil. It's no coincidence that the political parties fall over each other to sign these guys up, witness FF and Packie Bonner in Donegal recently. At the end of the day they are only there to make up the numbers.
Go out and vote and pick your candidate by his ability, not by his sporting prowess or who his daddy was and when the recovery comes you'll be glad you were part of it.

Judgement Day

bmaxi - that's the problem isn't it - our candidates have no proven ability except how to feather their own nests.

bmaxi

Judgement Day wrote: »

bmaxi - that's the problem isn't it - our candidates have no proven ability except how to feather their own nests.

Well, it's one of the problems
If the electorate continue to vote for gob****es because they can kick a ball or because Grandad may or may not have been in the Four Courts then the political parties will keep putting them up, that's the law of supply and demand.
If the electorate insist on better calibre candidates, then the parties will be forced to put them up or be left behind.
Would we let someone repair the brakes on our car based solely on the fact they played hurling for Wexford? I'm guessing not, but yet we will trust them with the lives and futures of our children and grandchildren in another context. It just doesn't make sense to me.

jpb1974

The Irish electorate voted in the current government and have had little or no say in many of the decisions that have been made in recent times that are going to fundamentally define the future of this country for a long, long time.

It's fine to say "if you don't vote you don't have a say" but look at Fianna Fail voters are abandoning ship... why, because the decisions made by the party go against what people want as a future for this country... people no longer feel that they have had any say.

There's a far bigger issue that over-rides this: "Politics are fundamentally flawed in this country and the system needs to be overhauled".

Until this is addressed I can't blame people for not wanting to vote as many feel that it's a case of "you're f*cked if you do and you're f*cked if you don't"... if you'll excuse my French. It's understandable that people may have become disillusioned by politics in this country.

bmaxi

jpb1974 wrote: »

The Irish electorate voted in the current government and have had little or no say in many of the decisions that have been made in recent times that are going to fundamentally define the future of this country for a long, long time.

It's fine to say "if you don't vote you don't have a say" but look at Fianna Fail voters are abandoning ship... why, because the decisions made by the party go against what people want as a future for this country... people no longer feel that they have had any say.

There's a far bigger issue that over-rides this: "Politics are fundamentally flawed in this country and the system needs to be overhauled".

Until this is addressed I can't blame people for not wanting to vote as many feel that it's a case of "you're f*cked if you do and you're f*cked if you don't"... if you'll excuse my French. It's understandable that people may have become disillusioned by politics in this country.

As I said earlier, whether or not you vote there will still be a government elected. If you take the attitude "my vote doesn't count" then it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.
The government of the last four years wasn't purely the fault of the voters in 2007 although they have to take their share of the blame, it is the result of generations of similar results and I've outlined some of the reasons for that above.
I agree the fundamentals have to be changed but they can only be changed by the people putting pressure on the politicians to do so.
One term in politics that has always infuriated me is the notion of a safe seat, that, to me goes against the whole principle of an elected government. If a politician or political party considers they don't need to work for their seat, they won't, that's human nature. No politician should consider himself a shoo in, no matter how able they are but civil war, parish pump and class politics perpetuate this.
There is also the concept of the greater good, this is totally absent in politics. Earlier posters have written about how different things would be if we had a Minister in Wexford. They are quite right but Wexford's gain would be somebody else's loss, this is what makes a mockery of national politics. Ministers, whose brief should be the national interest, are too busy minding their own back yard.
I don't pretend to know what the best political system is but I still say you won't achieve it by sitting at home on polling day or for voting a party simply because your family does, it's your future and you need to make up your own mind.

jpb1974

I here what you're saying bmaxi and would agree with a lot of what you say.

The thing is this:

I am disillusioned with politics.

I no longer want to turn on the news at night or pick up the paper for the simple reason being that I am sick of it.

They way I see it politics is a necessary evil.

Leading up to this government melt down I look at what the opposition are saying across the table and none of it adds up. Sure it sounds great "we wouldn't cut this, we wouldn't increase that" but it's totally unrealistic.

Voting the way I see it would almost be a case of choosing the "least worst" candidates.

It's not a case that I don't believe in politics, I really just don't care for it any more. Whether I vote or not Fianna Gail and Labour will form the next government... there's little or no uncertainty of that... taxes will increase, budgets will be cut, job will be lost, jobs will fail to be created, young people will emigrate, banks will be propped up, developers will transfer assets into their spouse's name and averages joes will have their pockets dipped into to pay the bills. The short-medium term future has been defined for us. Long term results... well, lets face it, what happens in the long term for a large part is really all down to luck and circumstance.

Let's take a totally un-realistic scenario: Sinn Fein & The United Left party come into power - and to cut a long story short we'd all be happy for a day or two when banks and bond holders are burned and then we wake up one day and realize that the Loony Left have turned us into Communists.

Let's be honest - the only thing your vote will really determine is which bunch of FF/Green clowns exit and which bunch of FG/Lab clowns enter. It doesn't guarantee a thing after that.

I really don't believe in any of the parties at this stage.

Q: "Would you like Chef red sauce, Heinz red sauce or Daddy's red sauce on your chips sir?"
A: "Sorry, but I'm not that fond of chips and I'm allergic to red sauce."

bmaxi

It is hard to be enthusiastic about politics and I can understand your disillusionment, particularly after what has gone on in the last few years but like I say, somebody will elect a government and that government will determine how you live your life, like it or not.
Listening to SE Radio news this afternoon I heard that it is expected(by whom I don't know) the status quo will be maintained in Wexford. This saddens me both for the fact nothing will change and for the fact people are so predictable.
The same old faces trotting back into the Dáil as if nothing has happened is an anathema to me and an indictment of the Irish electorate.
So, what do we do? Do we sit at home and bemoan the fact that the same crooks who have supported those who have screwed us are back in their cushy number for another five years or do we do something about it?
I don't hold any particular brief for FG or Labour and certainly not for SF but I do think that nothing short of a rout will bring FF to their senses, if FG and Labour prove to be cast from the same die, their day will come but the main thing is not to become apathetic and above all get away from the parish pump.

HeavyRunner

Bit shocked at the recent Wexford polls. Connick/Browne with more than 20% between them after all that Fianna Fail has done.

Judgement Day

HeavyRunner wrote: »

Bit shocked at the recent Wexford polls. Connick/Browne with more than 20% between them after all that Fianna Fail has done.

Well, if people down here put either of those two - especially Browne - back in they will get what they deserve sadly so will the rest of us who still have the power of rational thought. I don't care that John Browne was in the GPO in Courtown in 1916 or that Sean Connick was a GAA rounders all star.:rolleyes:

jpb1974

Connick/Browne with more than 20% between them

I'd rather vote for Bobo the Clown (aka Johnny Leary) at this stage

jd

HeavyRunner wrote: »

Bit shocked at the recent Wexford polls. Connick/Browne with more than 20% between them after all that Fianna Fail has done.

That looks like 3FG 1 Labour, 1 FF. The only way there are two labour seats here is if Howlin can be persuaded to share his vote (ie local party supporters go 1 Cody, 2 Howlin ) , so he goes a percent or two below quota. On past form, he won't do it...