Bond Markets effectively closed to Ireland - 7.62%

Sir Oxman

As heard on Newstalk, the markets have joined the majority of the Irish citizens and completely lost faith in Ireland as reflected in the current interest rate of 7.62%

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11693654

BBC linked to as our own National Broadcaster hasn't got this story on their site...

Come February, Ireland will be straight into the arms of the EU/IMF Stability Pact.

We have lost two years, every figure incorrect, every diagnosis needing second, third or fourth opinions - done to us by the very same people who led us to the biggest catastrophe in the country's history since the Great Famine.

Now today we have an arch-gombeen down in Kerry ransoming the country at a time of National Emergency soon to be followed, more than likely by another gombeen from Tipperary looking for a change in the law so he and his buddies can build a casino...

These are our national legislators.

bleg

Somewhat live ticker http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GIGB10YR:IND

whydoibother?

The only thing I can think of that might calm the bond markets is a budget. This needs to be done immediately imho. The 7th December is too far away. We also need those 4 by-elections and a general election to restore some certainty. International onlookers will be well aware what a shaky grip on power our Government have and so our plans will be greeted with skepticism since the Government might not be around to impliement them for very long. I heard a comment recently by a policital commentator from Cork whose name escapes me that their will be no appetite for a general election by other parties before the budget. They won't want to be the ones to have to do it, and that realistically, given the date of the budget, their won't be a new government until the new year. I fully agree with that. But I fear the uncertainty will destroy us in the markets and too much damage will be done for us to rectify it before we next need to borrow. We need to bite the bullet and have budget and general election ASAP to restore some kind of certainty.

ei.sdraob

Calm down people "Tis da ebbs and flows" :rolleyes: :P

DiscoStu

A bit of a fantasy figure to be honest. There are no bonds being issued. Ireland pulled out of the bond market a few months ago and wont be going back any time soon. The war chest runs dry in April next year and from there we go cap in hand to the ECB/IMF relief fund to buy the worthless junk that are Irish state bonds, provided the government get the super happy fun cut cut joy time budget through.

It does highlight the ludicrous notions of pulling out of the eurozone and bringing back the punt though. Without the backing of the ECB we would be many many times more up **** creek than we are now. The euro means we are being insulated from a lot of the speculative attacks that would be a given if we go it alone as shown in the current spike in the rates.

Rabble Rabble

DiscoStu wrote: »

A bit of a fantasy figure to be honest. There are no bonds being issued. Ireland pulled out of the bond market a few months ago and wont be going back any time soon. The war chest runs dry in April next year and from there we go cap in hand to the ECB/IMF relief fund to buy the worthless junk that are Irish state bonds, provided the government get the super happy fun cut cut joy time budget through.

It does highlight the ludicrous notions of pulling out of the eurozone and bringing back the punt though. Without the backing of the ECB we would be many many times more up **** creek than we are now. The euro means we are being insulated from a lot of the speculative attacks that would be a given if we go it alone by being part of the euro as shown in the current spike in the rates.

Were we not in the Euro with it's negative 2% interest rates for the last decade, then we would not be in this position. The UK is doing fine with a deficit bigger than Ireland's.

ei.sdraob

DiscoStu wrote: »

A bit of a fantasy figure to be honest. There are no bonds being issued. Ireland pulled out of the bond market a few months ago and wont be going back any time soon. The war chest runs dry in April next year and from there we go cap in hand to the ECB/IMF relief fund to buy the worthless junk that are Irish state bonds, provided the government get the super happy fun cut cut joy time budget through.

It does highlight the ludicrous notions of pulling out of the eurozone and bringing back the punt though. Without the backing of the ECB we would be many many times more up **** creek than we are now. The euro means we are being insulated from a lot of the speculative attacks that would be a given if we go it alone by being part of the euro as shown in the current spike in the rates.

The figure measures the secondary market and is the best indicator of how much confidence there is the country.
its obvious that there is growing concern/panic as bondholders are trying to exit out of our bonds.
I am getting rather sick of the government and people trying to wave off all indicators that we are on a slippery slope to a bad place. Wake the **** up, and face the problems, its this head in the sand attitude that got us here.

Rabble Rabble wrote: »

Were we not in the Euro with it's negative 2% interest rates for the last decade, then we would not be in this position. The UK is doing fine with a deficit bigger than Ireland's.

They didnt build as much housing in the UK, at one stage we were building (on borrowed money) as many homes per year as they do, go figure.

jimi_t2

Rabble Rabble wrote: »

Were we not in the Euro with it's negative 2% interest rates for the last decade, then we would not be in this position. The UK is doing fine with a deficit bigger than Ireland's.

Never mind the fact that feasibly (e.g. that the Irish financial authorities acted in an appropriate fashion) we could have controlled our inflation at a national level and that our few exports would be more competitive.

Rabble Rabble

jimi_t2 wrote: »

Never mind the fact that feasibly (e.g. that the Irish financial authorities acted in an appropriate fashion) we could have controlled our inflation at a national level and that our few exports would be more competitive.

Actually we are doing ok in Exports. The underlying economy - the bit that was left after the bubble burst - is doing ok. It might get crushed with interest rate increases however. The Irish central bank was always hawkish on inflation, and asset inflation too. Also were the currency to fall it would have been a good thing. Currency unions are not a good thing. This one will break up.

DiscoStu

Rabble Rabble wrote: »

Were we not in the Euro with it's negative 2% interest rates for the last decade, then we would not be in this position. The UK is doing fine with a deficit bigger than Ireland's.

If we had a competent government that was had a responsible fiscal policy that took into consideration that it could no longer control central bank interest rates as a monetary tool for controlling the economy and didn't do everything in it's powers to fuel a property bubble while basing the entire state revenue structure on stamp duty and other property related incomes derived from the aforementioned bubble we wouldn't be in this situation. This is a problem entirely of our own making. Gombeen politics, an ignorant electorate and debt fuel spending binges are not within the remit of brussels.

If we were not in the eurozone and the relief fund was not in place we would be paying far in excess of the project 8% for today. shorting of bonds and speculative attacks would destroy the country within hours of the April 2011 bond issue without the backing of the EU.

As for the UK i suggest reading up on what happened on 16 September 1992. An economy many times the size of ours is not immune to market manipulation. Given that many hedge funds sit on assets worth more than our entire GDP, GNP or whatever metric you fancy we simply would not stand a chance.

DiscoStu

ei.sdraob wrote: »

The figure measures the secondary market and is the best indicator of how much confidence there is the country.
its obvious that there is growing concern/panic as bondholders are trying to exit out of our bonds.
I am getting rather sick of the government and people trying to wave off all indicators that we are on a slippery slope to a bad place. Wake the **** up, and face the problems, its this head in the sand attitude that got us here.

Don't get me wrong, I'm no pie in the sky FF sunshine optimist but as long as the ECB keeps buying our junk the realities of the external markets are a secondary concern. It does mean we loose all monetary policy control though. But given the shower in the dail and the cretins waiting in the wings for the house to fall that's not necessarily a bad thing.

Rabble Rabble

DiscoStu wrote: »

If we had a competent government that was had a responsible fiscal policy that took into consideration that it could no longer control central bank interest rates as a monetary tool for controlling the economy and didn't do everything in it's powers to fuel a property bubble while basing the entire state revenue structure on stamp duty and other property related incomes derived from the aforementioned bubble we wouldn't be in this situation. This is a problem entirely of our own making. Gombeen politics, an ignorant electorate and debt fuel spending binges are not within the remit of brussels.

If we were not in the eurozone and the relief fund was not in place we would be paying far in excess of the project 8% for today. shorting of bonds and speculative attacks would destroy the country within hours of the April 2011 bond issue without the backing of the EU.

As for the UK i suggest reading up on what happened on 16 September 1992. An economy many times the size of ours is not immune to market manipulation. Given that many hedge funds sit on assets worth more than our entire GDP, GNP or whatever metric you fancy we simply would not stand a chance.

outside of the Euro we would have had an independent bank with interest rates of about 6-8%, were inflation running at 5-6%. The major levers for controlling the economy are financial policies and interest rates - the government was hardly going to take money out of the economy by taxing and maintaining a surplus. There was little it could do, most of the blame lies with the ECB.

The currency attacks on the UK were related to it's being in the ERM.

DiscoStu

Rabble Rabble wrote: »

outside of the Euro we would have had an independent bank with interest rates of about 6-8%, were inflation running at 5-6%. The major levers for controlling the economy are financial policies and interest rates - the government was hardly going to take money out of the economy by taxing and maintaining a surplus. There was little it could do, most of the blame lies with the ECB.

The currency attacks on the UK were related to it's being in the ERM.

Little it could do? Interest rate adjustment are a blunt tool. Its the easiest and most broadly reaching way of controlling inflation and the overall economy and its also the easiest tool to blame on being unable to do the job once its taken away. As you yourself pointed out there are other way of controlling an economy, they're just more difficult to implement.

The pros and cons of the single currency were well known and like every other member state we were given many years to prepare. However successive governments have been fundamentally unable to deal with the terms they themselves agreed to. Crying foul now after so many years is simply exporting the blame and not taking stock of the failure of every policy implemented by each government since 2001.

It's unfortunate this unwillingness to accept responsibility mindset is so entrenched in the mindset of the vast majority of this country.

But back to the bonds. How do you propose that a punt driven Irish economy deals with its next bond issue without the backing of the ECB and being entirely exposed to the international bond markets? The point with Black Friday is that an economy as large as the UK was unable to protect itself when hedge funds decided it was a target. How does Ireland survive after the inevitable extortionate rates that will be demanded? How does Ireland begin to pay back its euro denominated debts after currency attacks force a devaluation of the punt? The sharks are circling and without the euro we are dead in the water. There is simply no way an open and small economy can survive on its own anymore after 11 years in the single currency.

Rabble Rabble

DiscoStu wrote: »

Little it could do? Interest rate adjustment are a blunt tool. Its the easiest and most broadly reaching way of controlling inflation and the overall economy and its also the easiest tool to blame on being unable to do the job once its taken away. As you yourself pointed out there are other way of controlling an economy, they're just more difficult to implement.

The pros and cons of the single currency were well known and like every other member state we were given many years to prepare. However successive governments have been fundamentally unable to deal with the terms they themselves agreed to. Crying foul now after so many years is simply exporting the blame and not taking stock of the failure of every policy implemented by each government since 2001.

It's unfortunate this unwillingness to accept responsibility mindset is so entrenched in the mindset of the vast majority of this country.

But back to the bonds. How do you propose that a punt driven Irish economy deals with its next bond issue without the backing of the ECB and being entirely exposed to the international bond markets? The point with Black Friday is that an economy as large as the UK was unable to protect itself when hedge funds decided it was a target. How does Ireland survive after the inevitable extortionate rates that will be demanded? How does Ireland begin to pay back its euro denominated debts after currency attacks force a devaluation of the punt? The sharks are circling and without the euro we are dead in the water. There is simply no way an open and small economy can survive on its own anymore after 11 years in the single currency.

I am not saying that we leave the Euro Zone now - I would like to see the entire union disappear in a ordered fashion some time. Ireland's small economy did fine in the 90's with it's own currency.

irishh_bob

Rabble Rabble wrote: »

Were we not in the Euro with it's negative 2% interest rates for the last decade, then we would not be in this position. The UK is doing fine with a deficit bigger than Ireland's.

not only that , our exports would not be suffering due to a strong euro and weak sterling , we should never have joined the euro for the simple reason that the britts didnt , they are our most important trading partner afterall

southsiderosie

Rabble Rabble wrote: »

I am not saying that we leave the Euro Zone now - I would like to see the entire union disappear in a ordered fashion some time. Ireland's small economy did fine in the 90's with it's own currency.

And one of the main reason for that was because the government put the fiscal and monetary straitjacket on to prepare for the euro. And as soon as it came online, they took it off.

CoalBucket

I know very little about devaluing currency and whether interest rates in the euro or outside the euro are better.

All I do know is that the interest rate of borrowing in the bond markets is so exhorbitant that we will have to go to the euro rescue fund.

Bottom line is the markets will only drop the rate when they have confidence in the countrys ability to pay back our debts. Lenihan laid his 6bn card on the table today and the market reaction was to increase the rate. The only hope of that is a change of government and strategy will alter the rate in a favourable direction.

Fianna Fail and the Greens are sacraficing the economic future of the country for the sake of an extra couple of months in power.

It makes me sick.

Mr.Micro

CoalBucket wrote: »

Fianna Fail and the Greens are sacraficing the economic future of the country for the sake of an extra couple of months in power.

It makes me sick.

The markets have absolutely no confidence in them as they have lost all credibility. To raise the €6 billion, which everybody thought was for the 4 year plan but its actually for the next year, we should just shut the country down, turn off the lights and power, and go into an induced hibernation. This lot could not even get the budget figure right or the scale. No wonder the markets do not believe a word from Biffo and Lenihan as they have not got a clue.

Liam Byrne

Lenihan was on The Last Word earlier with a new spin on who to blame.

Apparently it's now the Germans, for daring to suggest that a default could be considered.

Lehmans, now the Germans.......one wonders who his delusion will take him to blame next ?

It is absolutely ridiculous that this idiot is in charge of our finances!

ei.sdraob

Liam Byrne wrote: »

Lenihan was on The Last Word earlier with a new spin on who to blame.

Apparently it's now the Germans, for daring to suggest that a default could be considered.

Lehmans, now the Germans.......one wonders who his delusion will take him to blame next ?

It is absolutely ridiculous that this idiot is in charge of our finances!

Ireland is now clearly walking in Greece's footsteps.
First Brendan O'Connor now Brian.
Greeks also tried to blame Germany and some politicians and media made Nazi remarks...

The question we should be asking. Is there enough money and political will to save Ireland if we go Greek? we could very well be made an example of or used as a sacrificial goat, some claim we already are.

bleg

On the way up up up at the moment

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GIGB10YR:IND

Amhran Nua

Rabble Rabble wrote: »

The underlying economy - the bit that was left after the bubble burst - is doing ok.

The FDI sector isn't the underlying economy, its more of a satellite economy whose orbit depends on how low the corporate tax rate stays. If we had a decent domestic exporting industry we might have an alternative fallback.

Rabble Rabble

Amhran Nua wrote: »

The FDI sector isn't the underlying economy, its more of a satellite economy whose orbit depends on how low the corporate tax rate stays. If we had a decent domestic exporting industry we might have an alternative fallback.

Um, yes it is.


Yeah, lets have an enonomy of 4 million people produce the companies who wil vend the pharmacuticals, software, web services, etc. that pfizer, google, Facebook, Apple, Amazon ( etc.) produce.

Not possible. Some multinationals in Ireland have been there longer than the PC market - Apple comes to mind - and Intel have been here for a very long time too. Any successful Irish company would be a multi-national too.

This supposed modern claptrap from Amhran Nua is antediluvian sh*te. The FDI sector is the economy, and has to be.

Rabble Rabble

Apparently it's now the Germans, for daring to suggest that a default could be considered.

That was the cause of the recent spike. This thread is vaguely remedial.

Amhran Nua

Rabble Rabble wrote: »

Yeah, lets have an enonomy of 4 million people produce the companies who wil vend the pharmacuticals, software, web services, etc. that pfizer, google, Facebook, Apple, Amazon ( etc.) produce.

They aren't here because Ireland is an essential part of their production chain, they are here because Ireland offers the most favourable tax environment. Everything else is just cream on the coffee.

Rabble Rabble wrote: »

This supposed modern claptrap from Amhran Nua is antediluvian sh*te. The FDI sector is the economy, and has to be.

I seriously have a hard time understanding what it is you're trying to say. Is it something like we can't create domestic export based industries here?

SeaFields

Lately it seems any time somebody opens thier mouth the bonds go up....is there anything somebody can say that will make them drop?!

Mr.Micro

SeaFields wrote: »

Lately it seems any time somebody opens thier mouth the bonds go up....is there anything somebody can say that will make them drop?!

I think it is mostly when Biffo and Lenihan make vacuous speeches that gives causes bond rises. Neither qualified in the field of economics, the former proved it and the latter is proving it.

nacho libre

SeaFields wrote: »

Lately it seems any time somebody opens thier mouth the bonds go up....is there anything somebody can say that will make them drop?!

possibly, if Rehn makes a public pronouncement to the effect that he is happy with the deatils of the four year budget plan you may see a fall in the rate of borrowing. is is also possible that Rehn will try to get cross party consensus on the budget too, if the message is sent out that the opposition is in agreement about the four year budget plan, then it may help to ease fears of investors who don't seem to believe a word of what the current government says.

thebman

nacho libre wrote: »

possibly, if Rehn makes a public pronouncement to the effect that he is happy with the deatils of the four year budget plan you may see a fall in the rate of borrowing. is is also possible that Rehn will try to get cross party consensus on the budget too, if the message is sent out that the opposition is in agreement about the four year budget plan, then it may help to ease fears of investors who don't seem to believe a word of what the current government says.

I don't think this will happen, the markets are wise that these are all people with agendas who's interest is in keeping Ireland afloat despite what people might say about the EU/ECB/Germans etc...

Its not just that they don't believe them, its simply that the figures don't lie and are unmanageable for us.

Most Irish citizens are aware of this looking at the cuts we need to make so its foolish to believe we can con the markets into thinking otherwise.

nacho libre

thebman wrote: »

I don't think this will happen, the markets are wise that these are all people with agendas who's interest is in keeping Ireland afloat despite what people might say about the EU/ECB/Germans etc...

Its not just that they don't believe them, its simply that the figures don't lie and are unmanageable for us.

Most Irish citizens are aware of this looking at the cuts we need to make so its foolish to believe we can con the markets into thinking otherwise.

true the figures don't lie, it's a bleak situation we face. however i think if cross party consenus is achieved on the budget, once the specifics of the budgetary plan are outlined our borrowing rate will go down. perhaps the markets are in fact waiting for a change of government to occur before we'll see the borrowing rate go down.

if this is the case, it's curious how Fianna Fail aren't calling for a general election in the national interest. the two Brians used to love stating how a change of government would cause instability and in turn effect market confidence. i'm sure this had absolutely nothing to with ensuring their political survival in office:rolleyes:

thebman

nacho libre wrote: »

true the figures don't lie, it's a bleak situation we face. however i think if cross party consenus is achieved on the budget, once the specifics of the budgetary plan are outlined our borrowing rate will go down. perhaps the markets are in fact waiting for a change of government to occur before we'll see the borrowing rate go down.

if this is the case, it's curious how Fianna Fail aren't calling for a general election in the national interest. the two Brians used to love stating how a change of government would cause instability and in turn effect market confidence. i'm sure this had absolutely nothing to with ensuring their political survival in office:rolleyes:

Well I think it is obvious to everyone that the current governments support is unsustainable for another year most likely so the markets would rather we had an election and got it over with before we went back to them rather than what FF seem to be trying to do.

Hopefully FF will call an election immediately after the budget passes.

ISAW

thebman wrote: »

Well I think it is obvious to everyone that the current governments support is unsustainable for another year most likely so the markets would rather we had an election and got it over with before we went back to them rather than what FF seem to be trying to do.

Hopefully FF will call an election immediately after the budget passes.

Might cause more instability. Sadly if the budget doesnt pass that will cause even more instability based on it possibly causing a government collapse. What is needed maybe is some stability till next summer say. I suppose FF could call the by elections and pull out and leave someone else in without calling an election. Then the incoming minority government would have to put up a budget which FF would have to support. But if they did that they would be leaving it to Enda to immediately call an election as he would then have that option. Enda and Eamonn might see a way to increase seats and so probably would call an election. But if they did they migh end up in a similar position to FF now Even a ten seat majority migh look handy but the current FF led group had a 13 majority in government!

Anyway back to the Bonds. All this seems to say to me is that if the government borrow now - today- they will pay 8 per cent. so what? The state aren't doing it until next easter I believe. It had better be closer to 5 per cent then though whoever is in government.

thebman

ISAW wrote: »

Might cause more instability. Sadly if the budget doesnt pass that will cause even more instability based on it possibly causing a government collapse. What is needed maybe is some stability till next summer say. I suppose FF could call the by elections and pull out and leave someone else in without calling an election. Then the incoming minority government would have to put up a budget which FF would have to support. But if they did that they would be leaving it to Enda to immediately call an election as he would then have that option. Enda and Eamonn might see a way to increase seats and so probably would call an election. But if they did they migh end up in a similar position to FF now Even a ten seat majority migh look handy but the current FF led group had a 13 majority in government!

A general election would give a more stable government because it would have more of a majority. FG and Labours policies aren't that far apart, no more further apart than FF and the Greens.

Anyway back to the Bonds. All this seems to say to me is that if the government borrow now - today- they will pay 8 per cent. so what? The state aren't doing it until next easter I believe. It had better be closer to 5 per cent then though whoever is in government.

Yes and we have to come up with a way to get it back to 5% before Easter which is why we should be working on it now rather than waiting until a week before easter as the government has done on every other problem up to now.

Sesshoumaru

8.5% when I checked a little earlier.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GIGB10YR:IND

This is end game right? No budget matters at this stage, we've lost all credibility

Dannyboy83

Sesshoumaru wrote: »

8.5% when I checked a little earlier.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GIGB10YR:IND

This is end game right? No budget matters at this stage, we've lost all credibility

Nope, it's not absolute end game.
It's the end of the road for Fianna Fail certainly.

See here for clarity:
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=68906213&postcount=10

Sesshoumaru

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

Nope, it's not absolute end game.
It's the end of the road for Fianna Fail certainly.

See here for clarity:
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=68906213&postcount=10

But when are FF going to throw the towel in? I get the feeling they'll keep going until the country really has run out of cash for day to day expenses.

*8.64 now, it's like a rocket ship today. The longer FF stay in power, the higher the peak we need to climb down from

Dannyboy83

Sesshoumaru wrote: »

But when are FF going to throw the towel in? I get the feeling they'll keep going until the country really has run out of cash for day to day expenses.

*8.64 now, it's like a rocket ship today. The longer FF stay in power, the higher the peak we need to climb down from

A bit of confidence could take a huge chunk out of that very rapidly.

New government + consensus = battle against bankruptcy is won
Cut expenditure = battle against sovereign debt is won

If sovereign debt is dealt with, it gives room to deal with the bank debt, then the war is won.

Avgas

Its seems much of the reason for the rise in premiums is nothing go to do with FF, the Irish budget or Donegal. It is connected with Merkel's casual comment two weeks ago that were any drawdown of EU/IMF funds to become needed in a major way (i.e. for Ireland or Portugal) then at the same she would insist that a haircut would be applied to bond holders at the same time-they would have to share some of the pain...in other words there would be some debt restructuring and debt write-off associated with monies advanced to meet debt needs and obligations of any Eurzone member......this has given the markets a fright as Trichet predicted, and the extra premium is now 'worry money' that any future lending to Ireland carries a 'haircut' risk.

The Germans are unilaterally saying more or less: we'll bail you out but not fully.
We're saying we won't need a bail out at all (Lenihan).

Neither statements leaves the markets very convinced.

JonathanAnon

8.9% so Mary Wilson says..

JonathanAnon

8.96%, this is crazy..

jmayo

ISAW wrote: »

even more instability based on it possibly causing a government collapse. What is needed maybe is some stability till next summer say. I suppose FF could call the by elections and pull out and leave someone else in without calling an election. Then the incoming minority government would have to put up a budget which FF would have to support. But if they did that they would be leaving it to Enda to immediately call an election as he would then have that option. Enda and Eamonn might see a way to increase seats and so probably would call an election. But if they did they migh end up in a similar position to FF now Even a ten seat majority migh look handy but the current FF led group had a 13 majority in government!

BS BS.
Usual line trotted out by ff and their fellow leeching incompetents.
What are on about minority government and no election ?
If the government falls there will be immediate election.
Do you think the opposition would not demand an election and look for increased representation rather than cobble together a make shift government ? :rolleyes:
Do you have any fecking clue about Irish politics ?

Internationally we are been viewed as a bunch of numpties led by a bunch of incompetent fools.
Some around here might think that the sun shines out of lenihan's ass but the markets see him as the spoofer he is.
We needed an election in 2008 when the full extent of the bank collpase was becoming evident.

At this point my only hope is we get the budget through and then have immediate election and have new government in place by end of Jan.
At moment it looks like ff will hang on until the bailiffs arrive and leave us with nothing.
Traitors all of them.

ISAW wrote: »

Anyway back to the Bonds. All this seems to say to me is that if the government borrow now - today- they will pay 8 per cent. so what? The state aren't doing it until next easter I believe. It had better be closer to 5 per cent then though whoever is in government.

The market commentators who happen to be linked to trading houses and the likes of Goldman Sachs are playing games.
Always look at what is in it for them.
They might have taken positions where it is in their interest that we get bailout right now.
Added to that Merkel is making it clear that there are not going to be indefinite bailouts.

8 per cent so what ????
Do you realise that we can't afford to pay that high a rate ?
It is an indication of what the markets think about us.
Like it not they do matter even if they are bast*** trying to make money off our carcass.

BTW it has gotten upto 8.64 AFAIK.
Correction make that 8.8 on 10 yr bonds...

maxwell smart

Surely the current massive betting through CFD's is whats driving this increase. It will be interesting to see if there is any change in the next few days as Clearnet (one of the major clearing houses in London) will now look for a 15% margin on all trades for Irish bonds from tomorrow.
I hope this will lead to a drop in trades as the chancers using the CFD's don't have to pay anything like this at present.

Obviously the government are making a total arse of this economy anyway and we need a change. Its just whats waiting to take over that worries me

OS119

i've no idea if its directly connected to todays Bond Price rise, but the UK reaction to Brian Lenihan on BBC Newsnight last night was that he was about as convincing as a Giraffe in dark glasses trying to get into a Polar Bears-only nightclub*.

from what i read, nobody believes a word he says, and nobody believes that the IG will shave €7bn off the budget, and nobody believes that shaving €7bn off the budget will do the job anyway...

*courtesy of E. Blackadder.

the groutch

what the market hates is uncertainty.
even if FF pass the budget, the markets won't be prepared to loan to ireland becuase they don't know how long they'll be in power to implement it.

having an election now would be the best thing, so that the new government can pass a budget that will definitely be implemented, and have a 4 year plan they will be able to see out til the end

alang184

jmayo wrote: »

Some around here might think that the sun shines out of lenihan's ass but the markets see him as the spoofer he is.

"Subscribe", I believe the appropriate reaction is.

What bothers me is the way some people (maybe less recently) think Lenihan would be a great leader. The reality is that he happens to be a better lier than everyone else. Every time Lenihan has announced a figure, he's lying, underestimating, overestimating, or the complete opposite of what he says is true.

I believe it is this lack of credibility, largely driven by what he says, that is a major contributing factor in driving our bond rates up.

jmayo

alang184 wrote: »

"Subscribe", I believe the appropriate reaction is.

What bothers me is the way some people (maybe less recently) think Lenihan would be a great leader. The reality is that he happens to be a better lier than everyone else. Every time Lenihan has announced a figure, he's lying, underestimating, overestimating, or the complete opposite of what he says is true.

I believe it is this lack of credibility, largely driven by what he says, that is a major contributing factor in driving our bond rates up.

I am going to say something that I know I will get attacked over and probably infracted for it, but I am not one to indulge in the usual Irish sh**e of not speaking ill of some people.

But I believe his health status is inversily linked to the health of this country.
The longer his health has allowed him stay in office the worse the economic health of this country has become.

If he had gone because of his health, then ff would have become destabilised and they would have had a less convincing liar in at finance.
Also ff would not appear to have a rallying symbol and cowen would probably be gone.

He has provided a crutch for cowen and his inept traitorous regime.
The sooner all of them have gone to hell the better.

femur61

I agree with OP. The bonds are nearly 9% and it is much of the topic of conversion in the GE summit now. A statement will be released today as they will discuss of the UK and German bondholders may share some of the pain.

strathspey

First Cowan blames Lehman's Brothers, and now Angela Merkel, who by the way garners an infinite amount of national and international support than this Irish cretin could ever muster. Is he just symtomatic of the Irish psyche, to blame anyone and everyone but yourself'?

Aodhfinn

Change Ireland now ...........

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6_3CDr0JIq4

consumption is a word that comes from latin ... meaning ..to destroy..
capitalism ... to acquire ...
Ireland is /was never yours ... its theirs ! and you have all fallen for it with your obsession with the obvious , you give power away through fear .

gambiaman wrote: »

As heard on Newstalk, the markets have joined the majority of the Irish citizens and completely lost faith in Ireland as reflected in the current interest rate of 7.62%

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11693654

BBC linked to as our own National Broadcaster hasn't got this story on their site...

Come February, Ireland will be straight into the arms of the EU/IMF Stability Pact.

We have lost two years, every figure incorrect, every diagnosis needing second, third or fourth opinions - done to us by the very same people who led us to the biggest catastrophe in the country's history since the Great Famine.

Now today we have an arch-gombeen down in Kerry ransoming the country at a time of National Emergency soon to be followed, more than likely by another gombeen from Tipperary looking for a change in the law so he and his buddies can build a casino...

These are our national legislators.

senordingdong

alang184 wrote: »

"Subscribe", I believe the appropriate reaction is.

What bothers me is the way some people (maybe less recently) think Lenihan would be a great leader. The reality is that he happens to be a better lier than everyone else. Every time Lenihan has announced a figure, he's lying, underestimating, overestimating, or the complete opposite of what he says is true.

I believe it is this lack of credibility, largely driven by what he says, that is a major contributing factor in driving our bond rates up.

I agree.

The only two possible ways that he/they could keep getting their figures wrong are that they are either, completely inept at doing their jobs, or are just plane bold faced liars/cowards.

Neither of which instills confidence.

Scofflaw

femur61 wrote: »

I agree with OP. The bonds are nearly 9% and it is much of the topic of conversion in the GE summit now. A statement will be released today as they will discuss of the UK and German bondholders may share some of the pain.

The statement, unsurprisingly, reiterates the point that the "share the pain" stuff only applied to the proposed post-2013 bailout mechanism: http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1112/ntma-business.html

Bond spreads have dropped, but will no doubt rise again if any other misinterpretations arise to trouble the ever-so-rational-really bond markets.

cordially,
Scofflaw