Perfect Storm

Dannyboy83

It looks like the perfect storm is upon us.

A) €6 Billion cuts on December 7th and Tax hikes,
Several bye-elections due which will topple the government,
C) 7.9% Bond rates which will mean an ECB bailout or IMF bailout if Lenihan is proved wrong again today
D) New ECB agreement meaning Ireland gets drybummed for any ECB bailout
E) Potential ejection of Ireland from the EMU if we are contagious to Portugal/Spain/Italy (Euro denominated debt= Unjustifiably immense sh*t sandwich)

That's just a brief overview, they are several thousand layers to the feacle encrusted sandwich we are about to consume.
It looks like we are close to Checkmate?

bleg

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

It looks like we are close to Checkmate?

I think we've been moving blindly into it for the past 2 years.

Biggins

I certainly think between now and the end of the year, if the government survives, it will be a heck of a miracle.

Amhran Nua

The government has achieved the almost impossible alright, they've willingly managed to make a seriously bad situation exponentially worse.

bleg

Jackie Healy Rae is making up his shopping list that he requires for his support on the 4 year plan and budget.

Acting in the national interest no doubt.

Permabear

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oppenheimer1

donegalfella wrote: »

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I do not see how the country being brought to its knees can be seen as a good thing. The sharks appear to have their sights firmly set on Ireland, and listening to the radio this morning it appears the city traders have the knives sharpened. On morning ireland one was talking of the need for cuts in the region of €8bn to convince her. At the moment there is little the govt can do it seems to get the rate down when you're up against that.

The decision to hold the by-election as early as possible, for what will be a crushing defeat for the govt in order to allow maximum time for the market to recover is a good tactic. However these seem possibly to be in vain now. In any case we've lost our economic sovereignty, and its the worst kind of loss, we've lost it to the faceless herd that is the almighty market.

bleg

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

The decision to hold the by-election as early as possible, for what will be a crushing defeat for the govt in order to allow maximum time for the market to recover is a good tactic.

Sorry, the Donegal bye election will have no effect on the bond market. The NTMA won't be selling bonds until next Spring, when a GE is more likely.

Put simply: General Election (and instability involved with it) now is a much better idea than one in Spring.

oppenheimer1

bleg wrote: »

Sorry, the Donegal bye election will have no effect on the bond market. The NTMA won't be selling bonds until next Spring, when a GE is more likely.

Put simply: General Election (and instability involved with it) now is a much better idea than one in Spring.

A new government would not have time to draw up a budget though before the country needed to go to the market. Indeed would there be time to pass the budget then have a GE straight away?

A national government, or at least bringing the opposition fully up to speed with the finances needs to happen to allow for a smooth transition of power when the election is finally called.

Permabear

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Fo Real

bleg wrote: »

Jackie Healy Rae is making up his shopping list that he requires for his support on the 4 year plan and budget.

Acting in the national interest no doubt.

Good news: He is retiring from politics at the next general election. source

Bad news: His flat cap wearing son is bidding to take his place. And yet another gombeen dynasty continues.... Hopefully the incoming Fine Gael/Labour government won't need the support of these shady, money driven independents.

Biggins

Fo Real wrote: »

Good news: He is retiring from politics at the next general election. source

Bad news: His flat cap wearing son is bidding to take his place. And yet another gombeen dynasty continues.... Hopefully the incoming Fine Gael/Labour government won't need the support of these shady, money driven independents.

Very true. I've said it months ago that he was lining his son up to fill his position.
As for his other son, he's also getting in on the act too at local level!
(See here for example: http://www.independent.ie/national-news/healyrae-brothers-got-euro110000-for-year-on-council-2282813.html)

The biggest bunch of country thick hicks, I've never seen before - and amazingly the stupid of this country still elect them!

Amhran Nua

donegalfella wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

I'd say rather the general public hasn't had much of a clue or agenda about the bigger picture until recently, and only voted for the potholes to be filled in. This is a result of the STV electoral system. You are right though in that an unprecedented opportunity for change has presented itself, but this will only manifest after the next couple of budgets, when the true effect of the neglect of the national picture is felt by every pocket in the country.

oppenheimer1

Biggins wrote: »

Very true. I've said it months ago that he was lining his son up to fill his position.
As for his other son, he's also getting in on the act too at local level!
(See here for example: http://www.independent.ie/national-news/healyrae-brothers-got-euro110000-for-year-on-council-2282813.html)

The biggest bunch of country thick hicks, I've never seen before - and amazingly the stupid of this country still elect them!

I hope they do promise him his new road and his hospital and they get his vote for the budget.

I then hope they renege on the promise and burn him badly and ensure him, his son or another Healy Rae never crosses the threshold of the Oireachtas ever again. Holding the country to ransom over a pet project for a local area is unforgivable.

dan_d

Or are we in the eye of the storm?

On the whole, I agree with pretty much everything that's been said here. There's no doubt decision time/judgement day is staring down the barrel of the gun at us. (all about the cliches!). True though.

seamus

bleg wrote: »

Jackie Healy Rae is making up his shopping list that he requires for his support on the 4 year plan and budget.

Acting in the national interest no doubt.

Indeed, looks like he wants a new hospital in Kenmare.

A hospital in a town of 2,000 people. That's a good purchase right there :rolleyes:

I hope the Healy-Rae family get lamped out of it at the next GE. Unlikely though.

oppenheimer1

donegalfella wrote: »

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I don't think its fair to say they've had their head in the sand for the past two years. Its more like they've been caught by a slump in domestic demand coupled with the global economy failing to recover. Add in on top of this an expensive banking crisis. The government have introduced three austere budgets already. Up until the first emergency budget it would have been fair criticism that they had their head in the sand.

We've lost it because the "faceless herd" of our public servants and welfare dependents have not been willing to accept the cuts they should have accepted two years ago, thus necessitating extortionate borrowing by a spineless government unwilling to stand up to them.

I agree that the departments have failed the country particularly the dept of finance. Its projections have been poor and highly optimistic. They seem to have confused the light at the end of the tunnel with someone with a torch with more problems. A wholesale reform of the people in the dept is necessary but there is no guarantee what will replace them will be any better when everyone here seems to advocate cutting salaries which is hardly going to attract the best and the brightest.

The market is a faceless herd and certainly displays qualities a herd. That is an unwillingness to change direction and to race in one direction. its a positive feedback loop.

Zynks

The perfect storm is getting 'stormier'. Spanish press reports Russia as saying that they will not buy Irish or Spanish bonds, and the Spaniards are blaming the Irish for that.

If you use Google Translate (or speak Spanish), check the article: http://www.elpais.com/articulo/economia/crisis/Irlanda/modera/confianza/deuda/Espana/elpepueco/20101104elpepueco_4/Tes

Fr Tod Umptious

Biggins wrote: »

Very true. I've said it months ago that he was lining his son up to fill his position.
As for his other son, he's also getting in on the act too at local level!
(See here for example: http://www.independent.ie/national-news/healyrae-brothers-got-euro110000-for-year-on-council-2282813.html)

The biggest bunch of country thick hicks, I've never seen before - and amazingly the stupid of this country still elect them!

As a previous poster on a previous form a few months back said about the Healy Rae's

They are doing no different that what Tony Gregory was doing for inner city Dublin

Biggins

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

As a previous poster on a previous form a few months back said about the Healy Rae's

They are doing no different that what Tony Gregory was doing for inner city Dublin

Very true and and similarly there was short leash between him and the political C. Haughty/FF at times too.

However at least Mt Gregory is widely recognised as a person who had character, morality and when the government was doing wrong, did indeed at times stand up and chastise them for it.
...The O'Reas on the other hand have been bought by FF and are quite happy to play along with them and reap the many personal benefits it seems.

Sierra Oscar

Its going to be one hell of a storm.

Pressure builds on Ireland as investors dump bonds

bleg

So Spanish people will suffer due to the effective dictatorship we have in this country.

flutered

with the ecb bean counters in situ at the moment no deals will be allowed, or to put it another way, the bean counters will oppose a deal, the gov has not taken their advice before, will they this time, i contend that if they had been cosying up to the bean counters we would not be like schit on a stick to the markets.

bleg

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/1104/breaking46.html

FOR **** SAKE!!!


Surely the Minister for Finance has more pressing issues than meeting with the gombeen Councillor son of a gombeen TD.


What the hell has happened?

Biggins

bleg wrote: »

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/1104/breaking46.html

FOR **** SAKE!!!
Surely the Minister for Finance has more pressing issues than meeting with the gombeen Councillor son of a gombeen TD.
What the hell has happened?

...And there you go...

"Fix the roads lads and you have me bought again!"

The O'Rea's are a disgrace!

The only good thing here is that FF KNOW they are doomed sooner or later so maybe for once they MIGHT do the right thing and tell him to go to hell!