Turning colder with frost toward the end of the week and into next week

darkman2

Hi all!

Between now and the weekend looks like being pretty uneventful (apart from the rest of today which is pretty hideous by any standard) with a westerly wind and some passing outbreaks of rain and showers. Not mild mind you but not cold either.


Looks like toward the end of the weekend there will be something of a change in the weather pattern with winds tending to turn more Northwesterly and strengthen before settling down into the following week with frost likely as temperatures at night fall below freezing. The Jet Stream has been thundering this direction like a big vindictive finger for the last couple of weeks (hence the unsettled, drab and breezy damp weather) but is set to become more amplified and weaken. This should facilitate trough disruption next week and the Atlantic will be a lot less mobile with quite a large area of high pressure to our west. So no risk of stormy Southwesterly winds!





In terms of pressure the models diverge so don't know yet whether this will be under high pressure conditions - in which case mainly dry at that stage - or slack LP which could bring some showers.


Also heavy periods of rain or showers at times (which could be wintry by next week) and also lead to icy conditions for the first time this winter which even now would be fairly early in the season.

It's all still a little uncertain but id bet on a setup similar to this. Cold, windy and blustery maybe wintry showers. Slightly colder regime then your typical stormy November:)

arctictree

Ah darkman, you know winters arrived when you start threads like this!

Anyway, ECM showing a stinker of a November storm for next Monday night:



GFS putting the LP more northerly at this time.

maquiladora

ECM looks quite windy for us as the low passes down between 120 and 144 :





Will probably change a lot before then though...

Storm 10

Listened to the Met Eireann forecast this morning on radio and she said that Saturday would be cold with frost on Saturday night, Sunday will start dry but wet and "extremely" windy weather will spread in from the Atlantic and will remain very windy on Sunday night

MT is forecasting a Stormy period sometime from Sunday or Tuesday also.

maquiladora

Met Eireann outlook :

SUNDAY : Sunday will be mostly cold, dry and bright with sunny spells early in the day. Very windy and very wet weather will move into western areas in the afternoon and becoming very wet and very windy in all areas on Sunday night.

snaps

Any chance of snow? Even on the mountains?

WolfeIRE

Unlikely snaps, except for the highest peaks.

Most likely sleet at the highest levels with some hail showers at lower levels in showery periods. At this stage, it doesn’t look it's going to be a very cold outbreak, although it will be cooler than what it has been.

Long range models still indicating that the Atlantic will prevent any potent cold northerly from pushing over us for the next week.

Looking further ahead there are signs that high pressure to our SE or E may keep the Atlantic at bay for a while bringing us some drier weather and some fog/frost in the 3rd/4th week of the month.

Basically, we can expect a lot more rain between now and then. Temps will be around normal for the time of year.

Danno

I wouldn't rule it out snaps. Indeed, there might even be sleet down to low levels overnight Sunday I think... to early to tell yet though.

jambofc

your all of your trolley talking about snow out of this system

must have been the long hot summer got to u all :cool:

arctictree

GFS has now come on board with this one:

maquiladora

I dunno about it getting colder, but a couple more models hinting at a potential storm :

GME :



NOGAPS :

Hooter23

There seems to be uncertainty on the models still about the potential storms track and strength
The good thing looking at the models it seems the weather is starting to get interesting in the coming weeks been so quiet and boring recently

Min

I hate storms, I live in an exposed location so while snow is tolerable, a bad storm isn't.

isle of man

what sort of wind speeds could we be looking at

TheInquisitor

Wind gusts predicted in limerick of up to 74km/ph

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/forecast-details.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&postalcode=EUR;IE;EI013;LIMERICK;&metric=1&fday=5

Redsunset

Still too far away for me to sit up and take notice even though models are beginning to agree somewhat.The path can still change alot and even become only a gentle breeze

mickger844posts

redsunset wrote: »

Still too far away for me to sit up and take notice even though models are beginning to agree somewhat.The path can still change alot and even become only a gentle breeze

Agree with you Redsunset, too many times i've seen these things ramped up to the gills in here and then turn out to be nothing special. Closer to the time we will have a better idea whats in store.

maquiladora

Yeah the models are having a lot of problems trying to handle this low pressure system at around 100 hours.

Chances are it won't turn out to be anything, should be interesting to see how it looks after another couple of days, who knows, we might even see something like this swinging down over us :pac:

Su Campu

Whatever about the weekend, it was one mild night! Look at some of the minima reported overnight - this is November, remember! :eek:

Valentia 14.7
Shannon Airport 14.1
Roches Point 14.0
Sherkin Island 13.9
Cork Airport 13.5
Oak Park 12.5
.
.
.

down to the coldest

Malin Head 8.0

lucy2010

was one mad night here on the east - Garden table is upended in the middle of my new lake

Su Campu

In fact, the temperature rose in most places overnight, to give even higher values at 6am this morning.

Oak Park 15.2
Shannon Airport 15.1
Valentia, Casement, Dublin Airport 14.9
Ballyhaise, Gurteen 14.6
Claremorris 14.5
Roches Point 14.4
.
.
.
.
Malin Head 9.8

maquiladora

0Z ECM looks windy with strong gales in the Irish Sea Sunday night/ Monday morning.



06Z GFS shows a much stronger storm than on it's previous run. However it takes the center of the low straight down over Ireland which, as you can see below, will mean the strongest winds will be all around us but we would end up in the slack middle! :P

Still a long way off though so that track could change a lot.

jambofc

could be interesting all right,plenty more rain anyway :mad:

nacho libre

jambofc wrote: »

could be interesting all right,plenty more rain anyway :mad:

There is an old wives tales which says a soaked first week of November leads to a cold December due to a high 300 miles to the northwest of Ireland, which results in frequent northerly airstreams bringing down lots of snow over Ireland. I should point out this tale has withstood rigorous scientific scrutiny.

WolfeIRE

well, it must be said it is incredibly mild across Europe for the time of year. These will dip by Saturday before recovering by midweek next week. Increasing signs that temps will drop below average for the time of year by the end of next week. Between now and then colder air will begin to firmly establish itself over continental europe and scandanavia. I think the winter is officially beginning from this weekend.

Su Campu

16.8°C at Oak Park at 12:00.