Hennessy Gold Cup

hucklebuck

Any thoughts on Nicholls entering Denman, Kauto and 7 others?

Is it a ploy to try scare the better opposition horses off early and maybe leave What A Friend and Neptune Collonges in and not give too much weight away?

gscully

Surely having Kauto and Denman entered would encourage other trainers to keep their horses declared as they'd be receiving huge weight?

As mentioned in another thread, Nicholls has just entered them in case their preferred option doesn't pan out.

UrbanSea

Kauto won't run,I'd say Denman will.Don't think he'll win it this year though. Anyone have a link to the entries and weights?

Nulty

Do they adjust Irish handicap marks for the Hennessey like they do for the Grand National? I remember the weights of the Irish horses being contested because they were "thrown in" according to the brits. Is it the same case for the Hennessey?

Also, when are the weights declared for the race?

Nulty

If all goes well at Down Royal, Kauto Star is set to run in the Hennessey.

Potential Weights

Kauto Star 11-10
Denman 11-2
Neptune Collonges 10-8
Taranis 10-4
What a Friend 10-3
Madison Du Berlais 10-1
The Field 10-0

?

HigginsJ

Would love to see Kauto go in it. Would put the final stamp on a great career.

The best chaser i have seen (and i am a huge Moscow Flyer fan) and possibly the best we will ever see.

LutherBlissett

It actually looks like Kauto might run...

Clive Smith more or less admitted that it looks likely to be his last season, so seems willing to roll the dice!

As has been said:

"If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss..."

Makes for a nice weight for Denman, which should make things all the more interesting.

hucklebuck

Should Denman not be getting 10 lbs off Kauto?

If Neptune stays in I will be backing him getting that weight off the other two.

I can't see Nicholls putting both in, it will most likely be their last season so why have them cut each others throats so early in the season?

I might try get a price for Denman to win the Lexus, Nicholls had been talking about that, any thoughts?

gscully

Nulty wrote: »

If all goes well at Down Royal, Kauto Star is set to run in the Hennessey.

Potential Weights

Kauto Star 11-10
Denman 11-2
Neptune Collonges 10-8
Taranis 10-4
What a Friend 10-3
Madison Du Berlais 10-1
The Field 10-0

?

If those were the weights, What A Friend would be going off 1lb lighter than last year, and 17 or 18lb lighter than when he won at Leopardstown and Aintree. Denman would be 8lbs lighter than in the same race last year. With Denman & Kauto pushing on (10 going on 11), and What A Friend improving, the smart money should be on him I reckon.

Morgans

gscully wrote: »

If those were the weights, What A Friend would be going off 1lb lighter than last year, and 17 or 18lb lighter than when he won at Leopardstown and Aintree. Denman would be 8lbs lighter than in the same race last year. With Denman & Kauto pushing on (10 going on 11), and What A Friend improving, the smart money should be on him I reckon.

The reason they would be going off lighter is because they didnt have to run against Kauto Star. The weights are relative. He would not be as well off as last year and the 11-12 he was carrying at Aintree or Leopardstown are in conditions races (neither here nor there)

I would much prefer Taranis to What a Friend, definitely at the suspected prices they would go off at, What a Friend looks an increasingly shady character. Talented horse definitely, but wouldnt trust him at all at all.

UrbanSea

Not about the Hennessy,but just looked at the prices for the Jnwine,if the 8 stay in and it goes 3 places,Trafford Lad looks worth an each way shot at 20/1 I think.

bit of a bogey

I think it would be madness to send Kauto to the Hennessy. I wouldnt give him a chance! I'd be interested to know what price he'd be? Owners are just getting greedy and trying to gain mythical status. Just send him to the King George like a good thing to finish another season as an incredible horse!

hucklebuck

I reckon Finger On The Pulse would be worth backing for the JNwine 20/1 looks a huge price for him especially if the ground comes up soft or heavy.

Colonel Sanders

Nicholls "not ruling out" Kauto running. Holds all the aces here. If Kauto ran (hopefully my sums hold up!) both Neptune Collonges & Taranis would run off 10st and a lot of the promising 2nd season chasers will be out of the handicap (this will be true even if Denman carries top weight). I was gunning for Pandorama but he'd be almost a stone wrong so possibly Neptunes for me. Nicholls always has a horse spot on if his first run is the big plan rather than a pipe opener for bigger & better things later in the season (eg Take The Breeze at Ascot on Saturday, eventhough he was beaten into 2nd)

Colonel Sanders

Should have said Pandorama would be over a stone wrong! Think Taranis would be a couple of lbs wrong too but NC would be bang off his correct mark carrying 10st

Nulty

Potential Weights Correction

Kauto Star 11-12
Denman 11-4
Neptune Collonges 10-2
Taranis 10-0
What a Friend 10-0
Madison Du Berlais 10-0
The Field 10-0

UrbanSea

Madison off 10 stone would be nice.

Colonel Sanders

Nulty wrote: »

Potential Weights Correction

Kauto Star 11-12
Denman 11-4
Neptune Collonges 10-2
Taranis 10-0
What a Friend 10-0
Madison Du Berlais 10-0
The Field 10-0

Denman is rated 182

NC 164 which mens be 18lbs lower than Denman => NC on 10st

Everything else out of the handicap

Colonel Sanders

Hennessy entries here

Nulty

I never claimed to be good at maths

greetings wrote: »

Madison off 10 stone would be nice.

He's still way out of the handicap. 7lbs

UrbanSea

Nulty wrote: »

I never claimed to be good at maths



He's still way out of the handicap. 7lbs

Better than meeting them off level weights which he is used to (Aintree bowl)

Juwwi

Top weight of 11st 10 is too low in these big handicaps.

A minimun of 12st should be the top weight imo.

Nulty

Some have suggested that it should be 12-7 if a 180+ horse is entered

HigginsJ

Could be ideal race for Burton Port. 2nd season novices usually have a good record in the Hennessy. I have him ante post 50-1 for the GC. Would back him in the Hennessy at 10-1.

ARTC29

gscully wrote: »

Surely having Kauto and Denman entered would encourage other trainers to keep their horses declared as they'd be receiving huge weight?

As mentioned in another thread, Nicholls has just entered them in case their preferred option doesn't pan out.

I fully agree, only entered as backup plan, certainly Kauto anyway.

Nulty

ARTC29 wrote: »

I fully agree, only entered as backup plan, certainly Kauto anyway.

Clive Smith is on record as having committed to the Hennessey if Kauto comes out of the Down Royal race well having shown positive signs. Denman almost has to compete in trying to write history.

Also, Those well out of the handicap have no reason to compete because they'll be running off level weights with Neptune Collonge. If your rated 15lbs below him then whats the attraction? Sure they may be on attractive marks but its not a handicap anymore for them and they can't take advantage of their marks. Theres plenty to put potential runners off except that connections want a runner in the Hennessey

Morgans

Nulty wrote: »

Clive Smith is on record as having committed to the Hennessey if Kauto comes out of the Down Royal race well having shown positive signs. Denman almost has to compete in trying to write history.

Also, Those well out of the handicap have no reason to compete because they'll be running off level weights with Neptune Collonge. If your rated 15lbs below him then whats the attraction? Sure they may be on attractive marks but its not a handicap anymore for them and they can't take advantage of their marks. Theres plenty to put potential runners off except that connections want a runner in the Hennessey

It is a huge assumption that Neptune Collonges can run to his rating. Huge.

The make up of the race is important but I think Diamond Harry is the right type for the race.

Nulty

Morgans wrote: »

It is a huge assumption that Neptune Collonges can run to his rating. Huge.

The make up of the race is important but I think Diamond Harry is the right type for the race.

If he runs, he will run close to his mark. Thats how Paul Nichols works. He won't run unless he has a chance of winning. But my point still stands that those well down in the handicap bear little advantage against those just outside it.

Morgans

Nulty wrote: »

If he runs, he will run close to his mark. Thats how Paul Nichols works. He won't run unless he has a chance of winning. But my point still stands that those well down in the handicap bear little advantage against those just outside it.

Depends what you mean by "well down" on the handicap. Of course, in prinicple you are right. I think you need to have about 8-10lbs in hand if you are to win a Hennessey. Anyone who thinks they have a chance of winning shouldnt be put off by being 5-7lbs out of the handicap. "

Nulty

oh yeah, i mean 15lbs+ out. 5-7lbs is just outside it accounting for conditions and natural/potential improvement

yaboya1

I fancy Weird Al for the Gold Cup so receiving almost 2 stone here he looks to have a great chance.
Nice little pipe-opener conceding weight over too short a trip at Carlisle last weekend to blow away the cobwebs.

UrbanSea

I don't know how I talked myself out of backing Weird Al the other day after considering backing him for the Charlie Hall when he was left in it.

hucklebuck

Morgans wrote: »

It is a huge assumption that Neptune Collonges can run to his rating. Huge.

The make up of the race is important but I think Diamond Harry is the right type for the race.

Yeah but his mark I think has been reduced 12lbs so if he is 12 lengths off where he was before the injury he is still well handicapped plus Nicholls ain't too shabby at turning out horses who have had a long lay off as winners.

Depending on weight Madison du Berlais could potentially be very interesting he loves Newbury after all and if the ground comes up with plenty of cut I will be backing irrespective of who is in the race.

Nulty

The odds available for China Rock look a bit suspicious. I'm guessing hes not going to take his place...any word? He is improving seriously and could be a good bet at 16/1+.

Betfair is 100/1+ so its very unlikely. Why not take his chance?

Morgans

cos it would be his fourth run in just over a month and had a very tough race last week. Just coming too soon, I'm guessing.

Colonel Sanders

big form boost for Weird Al in the Paddy Power yesterday.

hucklebuck

I wish the final declarations would just hurry up, I am itching to get stuck in to something but it all depends on Kauto.

UrbanSea

hucklebuck wrote: »

I wish the final declarations would just hurry up, I am itching to get stuck in to something but it all depends on Kauto.

I'd still be incredibly surprised to see him run.

Nulty

greetings wrote: »

I'd still be incredibly surprised excited to see him run.

FYP

Almost ruined as a betting opportunity but is still a seriously exciting race with all the runners out of the handicap

As expected Kauto not running.


http://www.rte.ie/sport/racing/2010/1115/kautostar_newbury.html

LutherBlissett

After his run at Down Royal (as alluded to above), I'm not hugely surprised by that.

With regards to the actual race itself, it's tricky to pick the most likely winner. I think Denman has a chance to prove that he's not finished as a horse at the top, but he'll have to bring his A game to do so. Apparently he's in good form in stable, but it remains to be seen what standard the 10 going on 11 year old will perform at this year. Little Josh really franked the form of the race in which he deadheated with Weird Al at Carlisle, so that's obviously something to think about.

longshotvalue

i think Madison is huge value here at 22 on betfair and 16/1, he has proven course form, and has an outstanding record in the race.. He is also almost back down to his winning mark and look to be getting enough weight here to have a surperb chance..

elbows666

Agree about Madison, competing in conditions races and now off nice mark in a handicap also course form and sound jumper.

I would be all over Notre Pere for this but its going for the Beecher which puts small doubts in my mind over Merigo for the Beecher.

TheMilkyPirate

It's been confirmed paddy brennan will ride weird al in the hennesy.

Nulty

Nulty wrote: »

The odds available for China Rock look a bit suspicious. I'm guessing hes not going to take his place...any word? He is improving seriously and could be a good bet at 16/1+.

Betfair is 100/1+ so its very unlikely. Why not take his chance?

China Rock is still in and now down to 27.0.

20 in it now:

No.| Form| Horse | Age | Wt
1|2F/1U24-| Denman (IRE) 220 |10 |11-4
2|131F14/ | Neptune Collonges (FR) 624 | 9 |10-8
3|1214P/1- | Taranis (FR) 301 | 9 | 10-4
4|442-113 | China Rock (IRE) 21 | 7 |10-4
5|3244F-2 |Madison Du Berlais (FR) 25 | 9 | 10-1
6|FU/5121- | Silver By Nature 280 |8 |10-0
7|0/430P-0 | Barbers Shop 28 | 8 | 10-0
8|51242-6 | Carruthers 28 |7 | 9-13
9|F/2205-2 | The Tother One (IRE) 28 | 9 | 9-12
10|3/1311P- | Diamond Harry 255 | 7 | 9-10
11|21/111-1 | Weird Al (IRE) 27| 7 | 9-10
12|211121- | Burton Port (IRE) 232 | 6 | 9-10
13|PP/21PP- | Dream Alliance 231 | 9 | 9-9
14|6/2U14-2 | Big Fella Thanks 19 | 8 | 9-9
15|121UF-1 | Hey Big Spender (IRE) 19 | 7 | 9-9
16|3520P-F | Niche Market (IRE) 21 | 9 | 9-6
17|121/111- | Pandorama (IRE) 334 | 7 | 9-6
18|401P4-0 | Razor Royale (IRE) 14 | 8 | 9-4
19|5333P-3 | Rare Bob (IRE) 23 | 8| 9-3
20|5/11-045 | Hills Of Aran 7 |8 | 9-3

hucklebuck

Noel Fehily sits on Neptune, any slight doubts I had have now eroded. I wonder why they gave the Denman ride to Thomas, is AP on Burton Port.

Would love to see Geraghty on Denman at some stage.

Goldcupfav

hucklebuck wrote: »

Noel Fehily sits on Neptune, any slight doubts I had have now eroded. I wonder why they gave the Denman ride to Thomas, is AP on Burton Port.

Would love to see Geraghty on Denman at some stage.

Sam Thomas won the race on Denman in 2007 plus the Gold cup plus the Aon Chase on him perfect replacement for Ruby. Mr. McCoy shall be at Newcastle on Saturday to ride Binocular. Unless Newcastle is called off or Binocular doesnt run. Looks like Geraghty could be on Burton Port puts up 2 pound overweight if he gets the ride i think. My fancy for the race is Big Fella Thanks e/w form at Newbury is 1st and 2nd from two runs there trip and ground no problem and has a light weight. Would love to see Denman do the business again though.

Nulty

I committed to Neptune a week ago and just nibbled China Rock ew. Trouble with the two is the lack of information on the likelyhood of them running. I'm fairly confident I'll get a run.

Goldcupfav

Mouse Morris admits he is being tempted to run China Rock due to his light weight.

'The plan is to go at the moment. I just need to talk to the owners and go through the race, but I'd say he'll travel,' said Morris.

'He came out of Down Royal with not a bother on him. He ran well there and he'd look well treated in the Hennessy.

'He would have to have an each-way chance, otherwise I'm wasting my time!'

Taken from the RTE racing pages today.

Nulty

If the horse is well then it would be silly to pass up an oppotunity like the Hennessy off 10-4

UrbanSea

I'm surprised you aren't on Pandorama carrying 9-6 Iain,I know you're a big fan.