Super Typhoon Megi Eyes Philippines

John mac

Super Typhoon Megi Eyes Philippines Link


EDIT: linked to a moving image!so if you are looking at this after 20th oct you may not see anything.

Mayo Exile

From the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre:

WDPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR
19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. MEGI HAS INTENSIFIED TO
THE UPPER REACHES OF SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH. CURRENT DVORAK EYE
FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD ESTIMATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
HAVE ELEVATED 10 KNOTS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO 155 KNOTS. A
STRENGTHENED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS SUPPORTED THIS
INTENSIFICATION, IN ADDITION TO SUSTAINED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW INTO A
TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL TO THE EAST. EYE
TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED STEADY AT AROUND 15 DEG CELCIUS AND THE
EYE DIAMETER HAS RANGED FROM 20 TO 25 NM.

Incredible sustained surface winds now with this system. Equates to roughly 178 mph!

Mayo Exile

And again at 2100 UTC:

forkassed

Redsunset

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9iJNp3wZcI

Can't even head for the hills,thats a monster of a storm

stealthyspeeder

Im in Manila at the moment, grey skies no wind you wouldnt think that beast was just couple of hundred miles away!

Mayo Exile

Latest from Joint Typhoon Warning Centre:

WDPN31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR
21//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 172242Z SSMIS 91H MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CIRCULAR 27 NM EYE
WITH A DEEP CONVECTIVE EYE WALL. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION BASED ON CONCURRENT DVORAK EYE FIXES FROM PGTW AND
RJTD AT 18/00Z. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 140 TO 155 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. WHILE THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAVE SUSTAINED OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS, ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
SLIGHT WEAKENING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM DUE
TO INCREASED LAND INTERACTION.

At 0600 UTC. Can't see the eye now.

Tabnabs

BBC news story here

digme

178.4 MPH is some whopper of a storm jesus

stealthyspeeder

Absolutely lashing down now, never seen as much rain in my life!

Redsunset

stealthyspeeder wrote: »

Absolutely lashing down now, never seen as much rain in my life!

A vid would be great

gbee

redsunset wrote: »

A vid would be great

Yes, it would. I've searched the webcams, and whist I did find some, none were working live or at all.

stealthyspeeder

redsunset wrote: »

A vid would be great

gbee wrote: »

Yes, it would. I've searched the webcams, and whist I did find some, none were working live or at all.

I'll take one tomo morning (I assume it'll still be going) its it doesnt really convey the intensity in the dark, plus its slacked off a little (seems to come and go in bursts every half hr or so), only heavy rain now with light wind, I would wait for it to intensify again but its half 1 here and Im shattered from jetlag and work!

gbee

From the news:

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/video/nation/regions/10/18/10/typhoon-juan-pummels-isabela

stealthyspeeder

When I got this morning (half 12 local time) I was late for work and it was only raining, the worst must have passed (perfectly clear skies this eve), no time or point to take a video, I thought a storm that size would have impacted more in Manila but it only really peaked for about 6 or so hours (fierced weather I've ever seen like) but I kinda expected more......

Mayo Exile

Powering up again now. Eye visible. Picture at 2100 UTC.



From JTWC. May peak at 125 Knots sustained wind speed tomorrow evening but begin to weaken then after that.

24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 18.4N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 19.5N 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 20.7N 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

Su Campu

Staggering. Naze, in the Amami Islands of Japan, recorded...wait for it...648mm of rain in 24hrs, including 385mm in 12hrs, up to 12Z Wednesday. There were record rain rates of over 100mm/hr for a while. Two people are dead, and several others are stranded by the floods.

Just to put that into context, the average annual rainfall for Dublin Airport is 733mm, and most of that figure fell in ONE DAY in Naze! :eek:

http://www.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/21_07.html

EDIT: Actually, I thought this rain was directly to do with Megi, but it's not, it was from a stationary front around 800 miles to its northeast, which makes it all the more amazing!

fifth

Stealthyspeeder where in manila are you? A work colleague is over there at the moment also. I see this has passed over

M.T. Cranium

Megi now threatens the city of Xiamen (formerly known as Amoy) in China, about 300 kms northeast of Hong Kong.

The storm can be seen on radar and satellite links at this site, the government of Taiwan's weather site:

http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V6e/index.htm

(just click on "observations" and follow the radar and satellite links)

On the radar map that you see there, 118 E is the longitude near the western boundary of coverage, and if you follow it up to the Chinese mainland coast, look for a bay there with a circular island, and that's where the city of Xiamen is located. If the storm makes landfall just west of there, it could still be at cat-2 intensity (this would be around Friday night GMT or Saturday mid-day Chinese time).

The Chinese government weather website can also be found on line but the radar maps are rather small compared to this link, and in any case they don't extend very far off the coast.

The satellite link can be animated for up to 48 hours and it shows the eye of the storm wobbling around but generally moving N to NNE around 117 deg E.