Prices to fall further - Fitch

Cheapo

http://www.rte.ie/business/2010/1008/mortgage.html

looks like we are still heading in the correct direction...

mrgaa1

Extract from that webpage

Rating agency Fitch has said it expects further falls in both residential and commercial property prices in Ireland. It said it has already factored such falls into its analysis of the country's rating.

The Permanent TSB/ESRI index for the second quarter of this year suggests that Irish house prices have declined by 35.2% since their peak, but today Fitch said it believes this will likely understate the full decline.

'Fitch already assumes a 45% decline in residential values from their peak levels in its base case analysis,' the agency said.

32.5% from TSB/ESRI to 45% from Fitch.

There are areas where we are most definetly at the bottom. There are areas where there is some substantial falls to go. We all know this so what Fitch are saying isn't really something new.

quozl

mrgaa1 wrote: »

There are areas where we are most definetly at the bottom.

Please substantiate this in some form. Where, and why?

I do not believe it.

johndaman66

Thanks for posting OP but hardly news all the same though...Pretty much same news we are now well familiarised with but coming from rating agency Fitch this week.

Johnny Bitte

mrgaa1 wrote: »

There are areas where we are most definetly at the bottom. There are areas where there is some substantial falls to go. We all know this so what Fitch are saying isn't really something new.

What areas are bottom?

Mr. Loverman

If you read mrgaa1's old posts you'll see he has predicted the bottom numerous times. I'm pretty sure he's an estate agent...

PaulGogartyTD

David McWilliams says there's more a correction to come....

mrgaa1

I think you'll find that i've stated many, many times I'm not an estate agent. For those who need proof (probably those who live in the Dublin bubble and can't see across the M50 or think life doesn't exist outside the M50) here are some examples. I simply use DAFT, MYHOME, and keep my eyes and ears open to whats out there.

www.daft.ie/1516820
www.daft.ie/1346517
www.daft.ie/1490627
www.daft.ie/1372761
www.daft.ie/1541682
www.daft.ie/1265107
www.daft.ie/1433686
http://www.myhome.ie/residential/results?maxprice=125000&types=89&sortColumn=Price

These are random samples throughout the country. So there are excellently priced homes throughout the country.

Also here is an article about spending - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11507319

Mr. Loverman

mrgaa1 wrote: »

I think you'll find that i've stated many, many times I'm not an estate agent. For those who need proof (probably those who live in the Dublin bubble and can't see across the M50 or think life doesn't exist outside the M50) here are some examples. I simply use DAFT, MYHOME, and keep my eyes and ears open to whats out there.

www.daft.ie/1516820
www.daft.ie/1346517
www.daft.ie/1490627
www.daft.ie/1372761
www.daft.ie/1541682
www.daft.ie/1265107
www.daft.ie/1433686
http://www.myhome.ie/residential/results?maxprice=125000&types=89&sortColumn=Price

These are random samples throughout the country. So there are excellently priced homes throughout the country.

Also here is an article about spending - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11507319

Sorry, how does that prove certain areas are at the bottom?

thebman

mrgaa1 wrote: »

I think you'll find that i've stated many, many times I'm not an estate agent. For those who need proof (probably those who live in the Dublin bubble and can't see across the M50 or think life doesn't exist outside the M50) here are some examples. I simply use DAFT, MYHOME, and keep my eyes and ears open to whats out there.

www.daft.ie/1516820
www.daft.ie/1346517
www.daft.ie/1490627
www.daft.ie/1372761
www.daft.ie/1541682
www.daft.ie/1265107
www.daft.ie/1433686
http://www.myhome.ie/residential/results?maxprice=125000&types=89&sortColumn=Price

These are random samples throughout the country. So there are excellently priced homes throughout the country.

Also here is an article about spending - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11507319

About a house that in areas where people have jobs...

While those are lovely houses they are still overpriced for their location IMO.

I would expect many of thoses houses to be going for at most 90,000 Euro.

Coles

mrgaa1 wrote: »

Also here is an article about spending - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11507319

All that article shows is that we are experiencing massive emigration.

It's unlikely that house prices will stop declining when our economy is collapsing, wages are falling, taxes are rising, we have a massive deficit, no ability to devalue our currency, our national debt is exploding, a property tax is probable, water rates are imminent, we have massive unemployment, migrants are leaving, rents are falling, families are emigrating, we have 300'000 empty homes, banks aren't lending, rates can only rise, our corporation tax rate is threatened, we have no chance of medium term growth and we're governed by a collection of goons.

bryaner

Gaff 5 doors down the road from me sold for the asking price of €280.000

2 or so months ago, still a bit going on.

gurramok

bryaner wrote: »

Gaff 5 doors down the road from me sold for the asking price of €280.000

2 or so months ago, still a bit going on.

Yeh sure it did just like the one 3 doors down from you.:rolleyes: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=67209684&highlight=house#post67209684

bryaner

PaulGogartyTD wrote: »

David McWilliams says there's more a correction to come....

Sick to me teeth of that man tbh, he'd love to have us all in the nut house..

bryaner

gurramok wrote: »

Yeh sure it did just like the one 3 doors down from you.:rolleyes: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=67209684&highlight=house#post67209684

Ok 3-5 doors down whatever ill give you the mans mobile if you want, I have no reason to lie and neither has he.

You believe whatever you want I'm just stating the facts that I know..

gurramok

bryaner wrote: »

Ok 3-5 doors down whatever ill give you the mans mobile if you want, I have no reason to lie and neither has he.

You believe whatever you want I'm just stating the facts that I know..

Yeh sure. Back then there were 150 4beds available at sub 280k in Navan. Now there is 145. That house you keep trodding on about must indeed be special :rolleyes:

bryaner

gurramok wrote: »

Yeh sure. Back then there were 150 4beds available at sub 280k in Navan. Now there is 145. That house you keep trodding on about must indeed be special :rolleyes:

Jaysus your unreal keep believing your own muck, I mentioned this house twice

and this equates trodding :rolleyes:.

Sorry for telling the truth

Mr. Loverman

bryaner wrote: »

Sick to me teeth of that man tbh, he'd love to have us all in the nut house..

He's been right about most things, unlike nearly everyone else.

bryaner

Mr. Loverman wrote: »

He's been right about most things, unlike nearly everyone else.

Yes I agree, but he loves doom and gloom while making plenty of cash out of it.

bryaner

gurramok wrote: »

Yeh sure. Back then there were 150 4beds available at sub 280k in Navan. Now there is 145. That house you keep trodding on about must indeed be special :rolleyes:

Whats Mam cooking this evening?

Mr. Loverman

bryaner wrote: »

Yes I agree, but he loves doom and gloom while making plenty of cash out of it.

I don't know if I agree with that. What else is he supposed to say? Everything's grand?!

gurramok

bryaner wrote: »

Whats Mam cooking this evening?

So out of 150 4bed houses in Navan, the one that you claim is beside you sells at an asking price of 280k, not once but twice!

Fluffybums

mrgaa1 wrote: »

I think you'll find that i've stated many, many times I'm not an estate agent. For those who need proof (probably those who live in the Dublin bubble and can't see across the M50 or think life doesn't exist outside the M50) here are some examples. I simply use DAFT, MYHOME, and keep my eyes and ears open to whats out there.

www.daft.ie/1516820
www.daft.ie/1346517
www.daft.ie/1490627
www.daft.ie/1372761
www.daft.ie/1541682
www.daft.ie/1265107
www.daft.ie/1433686
http://www.myhome.ie/residential/results?maxprice=125000&types=89&sortColumn=Price

These are random samples throughout the country. So there are excellently priced homes throughout the country.

Also here is an article about spending - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11507319

Only excellently priced if they are actually selling.
This gives no indication of the selling price.
With an over supply of housing, limited supply of credit and high unemployment the chances are that prices have further to fall.

bryaner

gurramok wrote: »

So out of 150 4bed houses in Navan, the one that you claim is beside you sells at an asking price of 280k, not once but twice!

I mentioned the sale of the same house twice, and yes it sold for 280k.

Are you able to cram that into your tiny skull.

bryaner

Mr. Loverman wrote: »

I don't know if I agree with that. What else is he supposed to say? Everything's grand?!

We all know everything is not grand, just don't need it rammed down our throats 24/7/365

gurramok

bryaner wrote: »

I mentioned the sale of the same house twice, and yes it sold for 280k.

Are you able to cram that into your tiny skull.

No need for abuse for been caught out on your ridiculous claim.

bryaner

gurramok wrote: »

No need for abuse for been caught out on your ridiculous claim.

Lol it's true so you can't educate pork! Don't worry about the small skull..

gurramok

bryaner wrote: »

Lol it's true so you can't educate pork! Don't worry about the small skull..

What? Both posts reported for personal abuse.

bryaner

gurramok wrote: »

What? Both posts reported for personal abuse.

I'll tell mammy to. Grow up man :rolleyes:

You are saying I'm a liar which I certainly am not.

gurramok

bryaner wrote: »

I'll tell mammy to. Grow up man :rolleyes:

You are saying I'm a liar which I certainly am not.

Where did I say you were a liar? Back that up or withdraw it.

bryaner

gurramok wrote: »

No need for abuse for been caught out on your ridiculous claim.

= liar

gurramok

bryaner wrote: »

= liar

Since when did ridiculous = liar?

bryaner

gurramok wrote: »

Since when did ridiculous = liar?

Your implying I'm lying when I have no reason nor my friend who sold his house.

Go away now I have enough of your condescending comments.

gurramok

bryaner wrote: »

Your implying I'm lying when I have no reason nor my friend who sold his house.

Go away now I have enough of your condescending comments.

That house has been sold twice and it moved doors twice too. It magically got a high asking price of 280k when there are 150 other 4bed houses available to buy in Navan right now at sub 280k in fairly good parts of the town.

And you wonder why your claim is ridiculous?:rolleyes:

bryaner

gurramok wrote: »

That house has been sold twice and it moved doors twice too. It magically got a high asking price of 280k when there are 150 other 4bed houses available to buy in Navan right now at sub 280k in fairly good parts of the town.

And you wonder why your claim is ridiculous?:rolleyes:

Lord jaysus I mentioned the same house twice that was sold once, I said 3 doors down the last time when I should have said 5 (big mistake sorry) , I was merely saying that there is a bit going on in the property market only for you to pull your guns and try and shoot me down.

I couldn't give a flying fcuk if it went for a song, I just relayed the price that I know it went for and I'm being castigated by some self righteous wannabe property expert.

Go to bed.


Oh yea :rolleyes:

gurramok

bryaner wrote: »

Lord jaysus I mentioned the same house twice that was sold once, I said 3 doors down the last time when I should have said 5 (big mistake sorry) , I was merely saying that there is a bit going on in the property market only for you to pull your guns and try and shoot me down.

I couldn't give a flying fcuk if it went for a song, I just relayed the price that I know it went for and I'm being castigated by some self righteous wannabe property expert.

Go to bed.


Oh yea :rolleyes:

So you say its the same house that sold just the once now.

I know Navan quite a bit and your ridiculous claim of a 4bed house selling for 280k in just 2 weeks while there are 150 other fine 4beds going for less than that in the town shows you up on your claim.

bryaner

gurramok wrote: »

So you say its the same house that sold just the once now.

I know Navan quite a bit and your ridiculous claim of a 4bed house selling for 280k in just 2 weeks while there are 150 other fine 4beds going for less than that in the town shows you up on your claim.

When did I say it was sold twice ? pray tell

bryaner

gurramok wrote: »

So you say its the same house that sold just the once now.

I know Navan quite a bit and your ridiculous claim of a 4bed house selling for 280k in just 2 weeks while there are 150 other fine 4beds going for less than that in the town shows you up on your claim.

Lmfao thank god I'm not you, don't think I could lead my life like with such a pessimistic paranoid attitude.

Bye.

Oh yea :rolleyes::rolleyes:

gurramok

bryaner wrote: »

When did I say it was sold twice ? pray tell

bryaner wrote: »

Lmfao thank god I'm not you, don't think I could lead my life like with such a pessimistic paranoid attitude.

Bye.

Oh yea :rolleyes::rolleyes:

You said 3 doors down a few months ago and then 5 doors down tonight which ended up been the same house when you were tackled on the issue.

thebman

bryaner wrote: »

I couldn't give a flying fcuk if it went for a song, I just relayed the price that I know it went for and I'm being castigated by some self righteous wannabe property expert.

How do you know this is the price it went for? Your neighbor is hardly going to say he lost a fortune on it or sold it for half asking price and look like a muppet is he/she?

Victor

OK guys, knock it off.

Infractions issued.

Victor

bryaner wrote: »

Gaff 5 doors down the road from me sold for the asking price of €280.000

€280? :pac:

The_Conductor

bryaner wrote: »

I mentioned the sale of the same house twice, and yes it sold for 280k.

Are you able to cram that into your tiny skull.

1 week ban for personal abuse.

derry

Its bad out there i been house looking for the last month all along the east coast

I thought that maybe with the prices falling maybe I should cosider to sto my usual solution rent for the last thirty odd years so I got a loan from my brother who has some cash to spare and can get credit for the rest for me

The budget for the new place is ball park ~150,000 much closer to Dublin and a lot less closer to Wexford to cover extra expenses commuting to Dublin

yes there is stuff out there and maybe with a small morgage could look at stuff in the 170 region

I looked houses from Wexford to Balbriggan

Seems to me the bottom hasnt been reached

The big problem is that appartments/ duplex huses etc are so vaugue on the levy maintince costs who own the maintinace company etc.

Then often there is alway the issues of parking and who owns what parking slot often never a number on the parking slots promises of yes there will be new car parks built after the complex is finished in the snagging process

My experice is once the builders finish the last building they exit and never build the extra car parks on the estate agents maps . I might have taken the risk to buy a few places if I saw things like the car parking slots for the two cars and a good exact plan for the levy maintinace systems such as what I have seen and experienced in normal countries like France and Germany where I lived and worked.

There is only me but there exists the possibilty for me renting a room in the place like a two bedroom place duplex or renting out the whole place if I went for contracts abroad and parking issues have got to sorted properly
If nessary the slots might have to have anti theft bars across them which can used if parking issues break out

Me I dont always own a car so I could lend my parking out maybe for months at a time but sometimes I need space for two cars and I need to be able to be sure I can garentee my two slots if there is any disputes .
Many disputes I have seen with freinds who live in these complexes are the three bedroom duplex have two car slots and often with renting they have three car drivers living there
Naturaly they tend to steal your parking slots so your car risks to get parked on the open road waiting to be robbed or vandilised or worse clamped . Then there is the issue there is never enough vistor slots for things that can happen like a local party takes place so again your slots get robbed when you want to use it

Always promises of they the estate agents will supply details but they never do come back with any real hard facts just more waffle on these issues as they dont give a bugger its not thier headacke to live there

So I lose interest in that possibilty as that for me is sure sign they are hiding something bad like the maintinance company is a mess owned by builder out to fleece you with big fees once the complex is finished or even worse its gone bust and there isnt a maintinamce company to sort the issues out

Really in this glut the estate agents should now only sell properties that are completly saleable no issues turn key all issues adressed and dump the properties that are still winging it with vaugue maintinace issues insuffent parking slots etc


I only encountered one estate agency in Gorry Wexford that sort of had some idea of asking the correct questions for selling something anything and a few in north dublin that seemed to have some ideas of how to figure what the costomer wants
Many agents are still in take it or leave it mode which works well in the upgoing prices but probably isnt a runner with these down going prices and I can be sure many viable sales have been lost in this apathetic market

Also some descriptions of houses are just out there in la la land .House requires some minor renovations to be habitable . Bloddy hell one side of the whole house can have massive risng damp and the house needs to be gutted and virtualy rebuilt would be better discription is just one of many houses that I saw out there . Its probably cheaper in some cases knock down the house and rebuild it completly .

I dont mind to bit a bit of house repainting a bit of clearing the weeds and the trees and fix a few pavement slabs get few roof tiles replaced even install an electric shower unit but i ant in the buisness of rebuilding a complete house.

I figure if the estate agents took some time off and did some lessons on how to sell stuff anything they might stop some of the slide in the property market .

Its still like buying a pig on a poke buying houses in Ireland buyer beware the old celtic traps are still littered all around Ireland and ony some few estate agents are rising to meet the challege.

It looks like to me Ireland is moving into the newwer better properties will maintain thier prices better simlar to new cars get the higher prices
I would also expect to see more old houses torn down and completly rebuilt looking very similar but done in a more modern fashion


Most one two bed properties I looked at would be lucky to get ~50,000 in the rest of europe even in some of the bigger cities and they still might want 190.000 with the risng damp on several walls

I think we will start to see the property market break into three distinct parts fairly turn key solutions whvich maintain thier value for sheer conveince , A section where the property needs some TLC new paint or similar which is bit less in price , and very very low value rebuilds probably about ~70% of the houses for sale in ROI where it just gut the place even knock it down and start again.

Car sales people understand that market often better than many Real estate operations out there

It over the tiger which was really a jumped up alley cat wearing a moth balled tiger suit has fled the scene of the crime and there is going to have to be a complete rethink on how to sell houses in sea of houses for sale

Me I am drowning in a sea of brochures from Balbrigan to Wexford of houses most of them which should really be torn down and rebuilt to be habitable

If the price was low enough I might just do that
I priced some wooden built houses and they could easily replace the same brick house for less than 50K take a few weeks to make and be fairly turn key but with asking prices for two bed cottages nearly derilect often asking prices excedding 150K thats not an option for me in this time , and I dont know eneough about the house rebuilding planing rules even if you makng a exact copy of the same house but made in wood

Derry

thebman

Prices have further to go precisely because buying a house in Ireland is dodgier than buying a used car.

The regulations and information simply isn't there.

Its a renters market now and people know if they don't buy, prices will fall further so why buy now when you know there is a surplus of property and prices should fall further and there is a surplus of rental properties and you can get good deals on rent?

People are being more careful with their money now and the property market is still pretending its the good old days, hoping to catch the families starting up that feel they need a house. About the only type of person buying now I imagine.