So how long will it be until Ireland CAN have a budget surplus?

hatrickpatrick

our deficit, if I understand the Anglo situation correctly, is now something like 40-50 billion.

So how many years will it be, even in a best case scenario of rapid growth etc, until there can be a budget surplus?

Are the reports that we face a decade of budgetary misery accurate or just the usual press exaggeration?

Sticky_Fingers

Not to be flippant but how long is a piece of string?
We don't even know how deep in the hole we actually are but it will be probably be decades before all this muck has been cleaned out of the system.

talla10

+ 1

IMO i think many future generations will look back and think what the hell were you thinking??im 25 and i fully expect this cost to exist long after im gone!!

reverenddave

maybe my great-grandkids will see the end of it!

although looking at the proposed cuts and taxes and shít like that i'd honestly guess 12-15 years

all i can say is i'm goin back to NZ

ei.sdraob

it be very unlikely we get another surplus budget, when it starts too look like we have a surplus the unions will demand more, and welfare recipients will need to be bribed for elections

see here graph with last years figures ill update this thread once budget is out in a month or whenever

RichardAnd

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

our deficit, if I understand the Anglo situation correctly, is now something like 40-50 billion.

So how many years will it be, even in a best case scenario of rapid growth etc, until there can be a budget surplus?

Are the reports that we face a decade of budgetary misery accurate or just the usual press exaggeration?

Your terms are a little off. Our deficit refers to the gap between what we're spending and what we're taking in. At present, this is 20 billion per year and it's this gap that all the cuts and such are trying to close.

Anglo, AIB, NAMA and the rest of the bank bail out should be thought of as a separate issue. I'm not sure what the bill for this currently stand at but I think it's currently about 70 billion.

To answer your question I would have to repeat the earlier poster's response of how long is a piece of string. We will have a budgetary surplus as soon as out outgoings cross the magical point where our incoming is greater. This could happen in 5 years, or it could take ten years, right now it's hard to say.

As to a decade of budgetary misery, the aim is to reduce the deficit to 3% of GDP by 2014 and perhaps that will happen but even if it does, we will have the debt to pay off. This isn't as bad as it seems as national debts can be spread over a number of years when a definite figure is know. Also, we might even be able to inflate our way out of some of the burden.

So what will this be like for Joe and Jane Normal? Well it's impossible to say because those people don't exist. No two people share the same situation so for some, things will get very hard. For others, very little will change and for others still, things will just get tighter.

You must remember of course, living standards were at an unrealistic high. This recession will not result in a civil war, a famine or even the sweeping change in Ireland's political culture. Ireland in 15 years time will still be the same little island off Europe filled with the same type of people. All that will really happen is that we must learn to live on what we have and not act like a fat kid in a candy store when we get some money.

poppyvalley

reverenddave wrote: »

maybe my great-grandkids will see the end of it!

although looking at the proposed cuts and taxes and shít like that i'd honestly guess 12-15 years

all i can say is i'm goin back to NZ

And I personally know at least 5 different people who'll be going with you and have no plans to return to this God-forsaken place:mad:

reverenddave

.

reverenddave

poppyvalley wrote: »

And I personally know at least 5 different people who'll be going with you and have no plans to return to this God-forsaken place:mad:

i can safely say it's one of the biggest mistakes of my life
and i only returned because of a medical issue (which is only kind of resolved )

charlemont

cant wait to emigrate out of this joke... no way am i staying put to pay for the mistakes of these people... it will be a long time before theres a budget surplus , sure the more of us emigrate, the longer fianna fail will sty in power, thats part of their plan..

gurramok

Income is likely to hover at best terms about 35bn as 17%+ of the revenues in the bubble came from property based transactions. Expenditure is the problem nowadays as we can't meet the expenditure limit of 50bn+, we just can't.

Jumpy

reverenddave wrote: »

i can safely say it's one of the biggest mistakes of my life
and i only returned because of a medical issue (which is only kind of resolved )

Wait you left NZ to come to Ireland to sort out a medical issue. Are you nuts?
One of the best health systems to one of the worst.

reverenddave

Jumpy wrote: »

Wait you left NZ to come to Ireland to sort out a medical issue. Are you nuts?
One of the best health systems to one of the worst.

couldn't afford the travel insurance,
and for an A&E visit once it cost me over $300 plus 3 days off work plus i think around $180 for medication

RATM

reverenddave wrote: »

couldn't afford the travel insurance,
and for an A&E visit once it cost me over $300 plus 3 days off work plus i think around $180 for medication

I thought NZ has a national insurance scheme that all working there pay into, were you just there on holiday or something?

Battleneter

NZ Health system is fundermentally a public system payed for by the government (taxes), similar to Britain. All residents are eligible. Like all health systems it is not perfect by any stretch although it does cost the country less per capita than most other developed nations. Private health care is also available which is usually quicker to respond to smaller health issues.

Sea Sharp

Best case scenario:

6 years of 5bn a year cuts.
That's 30bn in cuts not 20bn because VAT intakes will decrease when everyone has less income due to budget cuts.

That might balance the budget, then we'l need to cut further and start servicing the debt. The debt will probably take three or 4 decades to sort out.

reverenddave

RATM wrote: »

I thought NZ has a national insurance scheme that all working there pay into, were you just there on holiday or something?

only open to residents and sadly i am not

SkepticOne

I think it is more likely to be a sudden withdrawal of Ireland's ability to borrow that will bring an end to the deficit.

Nermal

We may never do so again. When the crisis passes we will be left with a fiscally-integrated Eurozone where some members are permanently dependent on transfers.