EU states-"Ireland-no longer low Corp.Tax"

dunsandin

It appears, perhaps rightly, that we no longer hold the whip hand when it comes to our own affairs. Tonights statement from the EU that in the future, Ireland will not remain as a low tax economy is a damning condemnation of our Governments position. Due to our economic balls-up we now are in the position whereby we have to dance rather than call the tune. Although ostensibly a result of our ailing deceased economy, this has been in the offing since the time of the Lisbon treaty of surrender. As with individuals, when you have money, you have power. Remove the money, and you are dictated to by others. Are we in for a long period of being dictated to? I think we are. As the old saying goes, "no mun, no fun".

MrDarcy

Just so you know who is really running the country...

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/1001/breaking23.html

The American Chamber of Commerce in Ireland has issued a strongly-worded statement calling on the Taoiseach to "categorically rule-out" any increase in the country's corporation tax rates following comments by the EU commissioner for economic and monetary Affairs Olli Rehn earlier today.

Do you see any other group getting assurances??? This kind of rubbish should be faced straight down.

Dirk Gently

they might have been better off to just STFU tbh. Puts Cowen in a very awkward position now as if he doesn't raise corpo tax he'll be seen as bowing to corporate demands.

dunsandin

Reminds me of a post some time ago by a guy called Dunsandin who said there would be a trade "scuffle" between the EU and the states over Irelands Corporation tax rate. Looks like the gloves are on. Wonder what will happen when the gloves come off??

Scofflaw

dunsandin wrote: »

Reminds me of a post some time ago by a guy called Dunsandin who said there would be a trade "scuffle" between the EU and the states over Irelands Corporation tax rate. Looks like the gloves are on. Wonder what will happen when the gloves come off??

It reminds me of a wide variety of inaccurate claims often sparked by such comments. In this case, the Commissioner in question made an observation which is, frankly, likely to be pretty accurate - that we probably won't continue to be a low tax economy. The thread title is therefore pretty inaccurate, since it makes it sound like the EU has issued some kind of decree.

Maybe he shouldn't have said that - although there's no rule that other people can't comment on our economy - but it's no more than has been said a thousand times here on boards.ie and elsewhere. Indeed, he didn't go as far as most posters here would go, and call for an end to the 'low tax' regime - he just observed that it was likely to end.



cordially,
Scofflaw

dunsandin

So, with respect Scofflaw, instead of one of your breathy decrees, what is your opinion of the long term effect of a corporation tax rise on our economy? I notice you are very quick to respond to any thread that does not fall within your definition of "un-systemic" . Anything fundamental, or opposed to current Govt policy is sure to get your rapid attention. I suspect your motives and your motivation. Could you please highlight the line where I state that the EU "orders" anything???????????????????????????????????

Scofflaw

dunsandin wrote: »

So, with respect Scofflaw, instead of one of your breathy decrees, what is your opinion of the long term effect of a corporation tax rise on our economy?

I suspect a long-term rise in corporation tax would be bad for the strategy of operating as an FDI hub and tax shelter. The same is probably true of CCCTB.

dunsandin wrote: »

I notice you are very quick to respond to any thread that does not fall within your definition of "un-systemic" . Anything fundamental, or opposed to current Govt policy is sure to get your rapid attention. I suspect your motives and your motivation.

I'm not sure what constitutes 'fundamental' or 'un-systemic', but I find inaccuracy irritating, and you're being inaccurate here. I presume your claim that I support government policy results from my daring to challenge you on the subject of NAMA, which was also motivated by correction of your inaccuracies.

You're also being rude, and as far as I can tell calling me some kind of government shill, which is no more acceptable in my direction than in the direction of any other poster.

dunsandin wrote:

Could you please highlight the line where I state that the EU "orders" anything???????????????????????????????????

You're inaccurate in remarkably short order, too. Here's what I said:

The thread title is therefore pretty inaccurate, since it makes it sound like the EU has issued some kind of decree.

Alas, I haven't said that you said the EU ordered anything - I said you've made it sound like that, and the reference to it being the thread title is really quite clear.

regards,
Scofflaw

View

dunsandin wrote: »

I suspect your motives and your motivation.

Scofflaw suffers from a strange affliction. He actually reads what people (or Treaties) say. In addition, he doesn't automatically conclude that because things happen after each other that they must be connected.

For instance, he doesn't appear to believe that a crisis today in the state's finances (which had gone off the rails by Q3 2007) is necessarily linked to Lisbon anymore than he appears to believe it is linked to the 9/11 attack.

I realise that it must be difficult for you to comprehend this affliction but please be understanding. A registered charity is being set up for donations to help fund a cure for his unfortunate ailment. Soon he too will be babbling away like the best of Eurosceptics...

Yag reuoY

Every decision Ireland now makes gets passed on to Europe for scrutiny and evaluation.

To suggest Ireland aren't in the thralls of the EU is downright absurd.

Nehaxak

In fairness though, there'd be an awful lot more on the dole if the multinationals left Ireland. There's no other reason for them to be here other than the tax breaks they get. Even take Microsoft as an example, they're all mostly just box packers in Microsoft's EU base here - there's no other rational reason why they are in Ireland other than the tax breaks.

So yeah, would be pretty feckin' hard on the economy if they all left due to the tax breaks being removed.

Far as I saw the comment and more so the media reporting on it, was to further try to dampen or hurt the Irish economy/people and not just our crap government.
Whether that EU minister meant it in such a way or that it was just media interests pushing the matter, I don't know, but I'd suspect media manipulation over the EU.

Diarmuid

MrDarcy wrote: »

Do you see any other group getting assurances??? This kind of rubbish should be faced straight down.

What about the largest unions in the country getting guarantees that their pay wouldn't be cut? As you say, we know who is running this country

dvpower

Did someone mention Corporation Tax?
I dont think the EU commissioner specifically mentioned it.

dvpower

Yag reuoY wrote: »

Every decision Ireland now makes gets passed on to Europe for scrutiny and evaluation.

To suggest Ireland aren't in the thralls of the EU is downright absurd.

That assertion is downright absurd.

dvpower

Nehaxak wrote: »

Even take Microsoft as an example, they're all mostly just box packers in Microsoft's EU base here - there's no other rational reason why they are in Ireland other than the tax breaks.

I think you may be a bit out of date here. Microsoft started here packing boxes, moved up to higher level activities like localisation and are now involved on the design and development of core product features.

ashleey

dvpower wrote: »

That assertion is downright absurd.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/eu-raises-spectre-of-hike-in-125pc-corporate-rate-2361789.html

Just in case you missed the relevant bit:

"The commission will have to sign off on new spending and revenue targets -- including detailed measures on how they will be met -- when they are set out in a four-year budget plan to be published by Finance Minister Brian Lenihan in November."

dvpower

ashleey wrote: »

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/eu-raises-spectre-of-hike-in-125pc-corporate-rate-2361789.html

Just in case you missed the relevant bit:

"The commission will have to sign off on new spending and revenue targets -- including detailed measures on how they will be met -- when they are set out in a four-year budget plan to be published by Finance Minister Brian Lenihan in November."

We are currently outside of the stability pact, an agreement that we have with the EU. It is sensible that they would want some oversight of our plans to bring ourselves into line. But it is clear that the details of this are for us to decide. It couldn't be more clear that we have a veto in respect of our corporation tax rate.
To suggest, as you do, that we are somehow enslaved by Europe is absurd.

ashleey

Good luck with that, then.

Dirk Gently

corpo tax will remain at 12.5%

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1002/tax.html

Scofflaw

dvpower wrote: »

Did someone mention Corporation Tax?
I dont think the EU commissioner specifically mentioned it.

In fact, he specifically said it was none of his business when asked about it, but at no point in any EU-related debate have mere definitive statements of that kind stopped the Chicken Littles from screaming the exact opposite of what was said.

cordially,
Scofflaw

ashleey

I think you are dead right Scofflaw, but I can't help feel that what is being said in public by our venerable masters is not quite reflective of how things are going in private. German meps are openly discussing Ireland 's Corp tax rate and they are paying the bills after all. Have you added up the ecb supports to the Irish banking system?

RichardAnd

I don't see corporation tax rising. Even if the IMF or Europe got involved, they can't actually dictate what a country does as Ireland will always remain a sovereign state. I also don't believe that they would want to raise corp tax because, contrary to popular belief, the IMF don't actively seek to destroy a country's economy but to stabilise it.

They would see that low corp tax here creates alot of revenue in wages of people employed by the MNCs who would leave if it was higher so raising it really wouldn't make much more money at all.

ashleey

The IMF aren't involved at the moment. It's all the ECB. Who is the primary funder of the ECB?

Amhran Nua

ashleey wrote: »

Who is the primary funder of the ECB?

Doesn't really matter at this stage, the ECB has always been a ferociously independent entity, the rule of thumb was that the chances of the ECB taking action were inversely proportional to the amount of pressure being put on them. That changed somewhat with the economic crisis of course, but I wouldn't call it a puppet organisation by any stretch.

Jane5

We don't have anything to fear from the Germans, and as such should tell them to blow it out their ass and that we'll keep our corporation tax and any other tax we have, any damn level we feel like.

I mean, why do you think they/ECB are going to such trouble to buy our bonds and keep us ticking along in the Eurozone?

If we defaulted, and left the Eurozone, the entire thing would come crashing down around their ears. The euro would collapse. They are benefiting from the euro at the moment, while we are not. Hence the best thing they could do is try by any means necessary to keep us here, even if it means buying our crappy, crappy debt.

If the Government had any balls, or brains, they would tell the ECB/Germany to bail out Anglo or we crash the Eurozone. That conversation would be over in about ten seconds. Hell, there is more than enough in the EFSF, with some left over, and it would stabilise the whole Eurozone if they did it.

We should not put up with being bullied from Germany though. They know damn well what side their bread is buttered on.

MrDarcy

Nehaxak wrote: »

In fairness though, there'd be an awful lot more on the dole if the multinationals left Ireland. There's no other reason for them to be here other than the tax breaks they get. Even take Microsoft as an example, they're all mostly just box packers in Microsoft's EU base here - there's no other rational reason why they are in Ireland other than the tax breaks.

So yeah, would be pretty feckin' hard on the economy if they all left due to the tax breaks being removed.

Far as I saw the comment and more so the media reporting on it, was to further try to dampen or hurt the Irish economy/people and not just our crap government.
Whether that EU minister meant it in such a way or that it was just media interests pushing the matter, I don't know, but I'd suspect media manipulation over the EU.

We have been saying the very same about the construction industry, what would we ever do if the boom ended??? Well now we know to our complete detriment what the ramifactions are when we rely far too much on one particular industry. The multinationals have already indicated that they are looking else where for their next bargain. Where's Dell now?!? Half of Intel out in Leixlip has been closed and you'll see another raft of redundancies from that multinational probably early next year.

We are deluding ourselves if we think that these businesses are here long term, we are no longer the low cost economy that they originally came here for. Regardless of what our CT rate is, these guys already have plans in place to re-gear their business costs by moving to a much lower cost economy.

While they are here, they should be contributing fairly. It is actully scary how the American Chamber of Commerce issues a press release on a Friday morning saying that they want concrete assuarances on Corporate Tax being utterly untouchable and before lunchtime on the same day, the government have gotten down on bended knee to these saps and assured them in no uncertain terms that their wishes have been granted. I hope people remember this when they have an absolute saddle strapped onto their backs this December...

ashleey

Exactly to both the last two posts. Dell left despite the current tax rate and Germany should be made to realise who is importing their stuff. Unfortunately it's china so they would probably call your bluff and then get the French to clear up what's left of the euro. Either way it doesn't look pleasant for Ireland.

hatrickpatrick

Raising our corporation tax would be a DISASTER.

What is it about trying to be competitive that critics of the tax rate don't seem to understand? Companies will invest in the cheapest, smartest economy they can find. If we want that to be us we need to be competitive.

The EU has always been bitter about our tax rates. Hey lads, if you're not willing to lower your rates to compete with us, not our problem. **** off.

MrDarcy

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/1002/breaking6.html

"The Department of Finance has ruled out any change in the State’s low corporation tax rate – a matter which is emerging as the first battleground between the Government and the EU authorities as work begins on drawing up a drastic four-year austerity plan.
The EU economics commissioner Olli Rehn said yesterday that no tax policy changes should be excluded from the Government’s plan to return the national deficit to 3 per cent of gross domestic product by 2014.
Mr Rehn’s comments, as well as briefings from senior European officials, were taken as raising doubts over whether the State could achieve such dramatic reductions in the national deficit while retaining the 12.5 per cent tax, which has proved controversial with some EU countries."

They are 200% right, as long as we cannot pay our own way and are making a joke out the borrowing/stability & growth rules of the EU, we should not expect to be bailed out, while at the same time, claiming that we cannot raise anymore tax, just because we want to be global people pleasers to the US multinationals when it comes to Corporation Tax.

Our low tax model is not sustainable in the long term, we cannot have 50% of taxpayers outside the tax net, great, we have now learnt that lesson and we seem to be prepared to make the necessary changes.

But a CT rate of 12.5%, also unsustainable and wrong. The EU should rightly make it a condition of any financial support that we must require.

Germany take 15% for CT and they run a stable economy because it does the right things right, we should listen to people who are managing sound economies and not be going around with our heads up our arse telling people that we wil do things our own way when the country is in such a state, we must be the laughing stock of the EU.

MrDarcy

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Raising our corporation tax would be a DISASTER.

What is it about trying to be competitive that critics of the tax rate don't seem to understand? Companies will invest in the cheapest, smartest economy they can find. If we want that to be us we need to be competitive.

The EU has always been bitter about our tax rates. Hey lads, if you're not willing to lower your rates to compete with us, not our problem. **** off.

Complete rubbish. We are not competitive, we have been offsetting our lack of competiveness, by offering a CT rate of 12.5% that is not sustainable for OUR needs. We are going to have to get competive at some point so we may as well get our house in order now and stop trying to cod everyone with our super "aren't we just brilliant" 12.5% CT rate.

We did the same with the property game, "look at us aren't we just great, nobody has to work in Ireland anymore, everyone can be a f*cking property investor!"

The chickens came home to roost and now we are up sh*t creak central without a pair of arms never mind a paddle. The same will happen with the multinational community, we are not competitive, so they are going to head anyway, that's what they do...

astrofool

If we raise CT, the net effect, long, term will be less tax returns, this won't help reduce the deficit at all.

dunsandin

Scofflaw wrote: »

In fact, he specifically said it was none of his business when asked about it, but at no point in any EU-related debate have mere definitive statements of that kind stopped the Chicken Littles from screaming the exact opposite of what was said.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Again, with respect Scofflaw, and I do recognise that you are a bright type of a lad, but if I had not read through reams of your posts about how we(the realists) were being patently absurd by suggesting that NAMA would be a loss making disaster, I would take what you say with a smaller pinch of salt. No doubt you will retort that NAMA is exactly on track, business plan motoring as required, etc,etc, but if you cannot see that it will lose its pants in the medium to long term, I give up. Equally, if a person takes an overview and draws the conclusion that we are likely, not certain, to be funneled in a certain direction, their opinion has valididity. It is a tad arrogant to dismiss the view that we are going to be dictated to(and incidentally, I care not a whit that it is happening) to a greater extent in the future. I mentioned some weeks ago that some of the FDI companies were watching this very closely, and yet you assume that this is just speculation. It seems to have always had to have happened already before you acknowledge an event as a possibility.

xavidub

A modest rise in ACT, perhaps to 17.5% would still see most MNCs remaining here. ACT in the US is around 30% so it's still worth their while. Also Intel have invested €4 billion in Leixlip plant so they won't be going anywhere in the short term.

We are over-concerned about MNCs anyway imo. Most of their profits are repatriated after being laundered in various tax loopholes and has been seen with Dell, they have no loyalty whatsoever to the country.

Accordingly, we should be more focused on keeping the ECB (Bundesbank) happy than trans-national corporations.

An overwhelmingly greater number of people work in SMEs of less than 50 people. We should be doing whatever it takes to help them rather than big corporations. How about legislation and enforcement to oblige large companies to pay their debts to small suppliers in 45 days which would probably do more to support jobs than Dell ever did.

Food, Agriculture and Tourism are much more important sectors than MNCs but as they are much less glamorous and don't provide photo-opportunities for Ministers they are perpetually neglected.

View

dunsandin wrote: »

Again, with respect Scofflaw, and I do recognise that you are a bright type of a lad, but if I had not read through reams of your posts about how we(the realists) were being patently absurd by suggesting that NAMA would be a loss making disaster, I would take what you say with a smaller pinch of salt. No doubt you will retort that NAMA is exactly on track, business plan motoring as required, etc,etc, but if you cannot see that it will lose its pants in the medium to long term, I give up. Equally, if a person takes an overview and draws the conclusion that we are likely, not certain, to be funneled in a certain direction, their opinion has valididity. It is a tad arrogant to dismiss the view that we are going to be dictated to(and incidentally, I care not a whit that it is happening) to a greater extent in the future. I mentioned some weeks ago that some of the FDI companies were watching this very closely, and yet you assume that this is just speculation. It seems to have always had to have happened already before you acknowledge an event as a possibility.

Ad hominem attacks are a really poor way of making your case.

The commissioner did not comment on corporation tax as has been pointed out but rather that Ireland was unlikely to remain a low tax economy.

Unless, you believe there are going to be no tax increases or other related changes (e.g. broadening of the tax base) in income tax, VAT and every other duty that the government levies, it is very hard to see how anyone could seriously argue that we will remain a low tax economy.

dvpower

xavidub wrote: »

A modest rise in ACT, perhaps to 17.5% would still see most MNCs remaining here. ACT in the US is around 30% so it's still worth their while. Also Intel have invested €4 billion in Leixlip plant so they won't be going anywhere in the short term.

If its modest then why do it?
Any rise in Corporation Tax would signal that our commitment to a low rate is a moveable feast. That, I think, would be quite risky. The MNC sector is one of the very few good news stories we have and we should be very careful with our policy towards it.

dunsandin

View wrote: »

Ad hominem attacks are a really poor way of making your case.

The commissioner did not comment on corporation tax as has been pointed out but rather that Ireland was unlikely to remain a low tax economy.

Unless, you believe there are going to be no tax increases or other related changes (e.g. broadening of the tax base) in income tax, VAT and every other duty that the government levies, it is very hard to see how anyone could seriously argue that we will remain a low tax economy.

And who is arguing that we will remain a low tax economy? I hope you don't mean me, because I said a year ago that we would not. And there was nothing Ad Hominem. I was playing the opinions, not the opinioner. And I have no case to promote, because I could care less. I am merely posing a questioning position and my own limited view. I think we will do exactly what the EU dictates, because we are a bust flush. You go think whatever you want. Makes no difference to what the reality will be.

southsiderosie

Jane5 wrote: »

We don't have anything to fear from the Germans, and as such should tell them to blow it out their ass and that we'll keep our corporation tax and any other tax we have, any damn level we feel like.

I mean, why do you think they/ECB are going to such trouble to buy our bonds and keep us ticking along in the Eurozone?

If we defaulted, and left the Eurozone, the entire thing would come crashing down around their ears. The euro would collapse. They are benefiting from the euro at the moment, while we are not. Hence the best thing they could do is try by any means necessary to keep us here, even if it means buying our crappy, crappy debt.

If the Government had any balls, or brains, they would tell the ECB/Germany to bail out Anglo or we crash the Eurozone. That conversation would be over in about ten seconds. Hell, there is more than enough in the EFSF, with some left over, and it would stabilise the whole Eurozone if they did it.

We should not put up with being bullied from Germany though. They know damn well what side their bread is buttered on.

This is a ridiculous post. If Ireland defaulted and left the euro, the Germans would see an even bigger surge in exports in the short-term from a weaker currency, and long-term, German taxpayers would not be on the hook for Irish loose spending. They would be even more delighted if you left and took the Greeks with you.

Spain, with its 42 million people and large economy represents a real and very scary systematic risk to the euro. But Ireland? pbbbt.

Oh, and good luck paying back all of your euro-backed debt in punts.

View

dunsandin wrote: »

And who is arguing that we will remain a low tax economy? I hope you don't mean me, because I said a year ago that we would not.

So you are now saying that you agree with the commissioner's comment that Ireland would become a normal tax economy rather than a low tax economy? If so, what's the issue?

dunsandin wrote: »

And I have no case to promote, because I could care less.

If you have "no case to promote", why mis-represent - as you did in the thread title - what he said? Or for that matter talk of "we will do exactly what the EU dictates" when it remains our choice to decide how to resolve the problem of the large hole in the state's finances.

It is the state's budgetary figures that will dictate our choices over the next few years. We could leave the EU in the morning and we will still end up making the same decisions (more or less).

old_aussie

All members of the EU will end up being destroyed financially, some just sooner than others.

Migrants from the poorer countries will flock to the richer ones with better public benefits and milk that country dry and then on to the next best richest country to milk the public benefits (dole, medical etc).

dynamick

The Lisbon Treaty guarantee on no change to authority to set tax rates are here:
http://ec.europa.eu/ireland/lisbon_treaty/lisbon_treaty_progress/index_en.htm

Scofflaw

dunsandin wrote: »

Again, with respect Scofflaw, and I do recognise that you are a bright type of a lad, but if I had not read through reams of your posts about how we(the realists) were being patently absurd by suggesting that NAMA would be a loss making disaster, I would take what you say with a smaller pinch of salt. No doubt you will retort that NAMA is exactly on track, business plan motoring as required, etc,etc, but if you cannot see that it will lose its pants in the medium to long term, I give up.

I was and am open to the idea that NAMA will most probably lose money, but I've little respect for the sort of doctrinaire disasterism preached in certain quarters, which necessitates not really caring what the NAMA legislation actually says, and basing one's opinions on belief rather more than fact. You could well be right, but I think you'd believe what you believe about NAMA whether it was particularly likely or not, so you'd be accidentally right from my point of view, if you see what I mean.

dunsandin wrote: »

Equally, if a person takes an overview and draws the conclusion that we are likely, not certain, to be funneled in a certain direction, their opinion has valididity. It is a tad arrogant to dismiss the view that we are going to be dictated to(and incidentally, I care not a whit that it is happening) to a greater extent in the future. I mentioned some weeks ago that some of the FDI companies were watching this very closely, and yet you assume that this is just speculation. It seems to have always had to have happened already before you acknowledge an event as a possibility.

Things have to have happened already for me to acknowledge possibilities as the certainties people often make them out to be, because only once something has happened is it in fact certain. On balance, I feel that's a reasonable position, although I appreciate not everyone shares that view.

cordially,
Scofflaw

dunsandin

I don't much care if the rate is raised for these reasons;

1. We should develope our own indigenous industries and not just ignore them to the betterment of fickle and self-interested multinationals. Dell should have opened our eyes to their game-plan. They are a blip on the graph of Irelands industrial base, here for a bit, until somwhere else offers better.

2. The EU will do a better job through dictation than our current Govt. Our current leaders do not have the balls for the task at hand, nor do they have the brains or the lack of self-interest required. Nor do they have the guts to take on vested interests, possibly because they are one themselves.

3. Our Tax rates and Tax base are unsustainable and need to be reviewed urgently. This is only now being looked at because of external pressure.

Just because some of us may not be eloquent enough nor au-fait enough with statistics, that does not make our opinions invalid or extremist. And I'm not a chicken licken, the skys falling type, I just think change is coming, and I actually welcome it with open arms. What I don't welcome is the hardship that will be imposed through front-line service cuts because our political gombeens will skew any slash and burn in that direction, and not at the bloated higher levels.

equally cordially, Dunsandin.

Scofflaw

dunsandin wrote: »

I don't much care if the rate is raised for these reasons;

1. We should develope our own indigenous industries and not just ignore them to the betterment of fickle and self-interested multinationals. Dell should have opened our eyes to their game-plan. They are a blip on the graph of Irelands industrial base, here for a bit, until somwhere else offers better.

Agreed - I wish the "easy credit" of the boom had been pointed at our native businesses.

dunsandin wrote: »

2. The EU will do a better job through dictation than our current Govt. Our current leaders do not have the balls for the task at hand, nor do they have the brains or the lack of self-interest required. Nor do they have the guts to take on vested interests, possibly because they are one themselves.

That is a traditional use of the EU by Irish governments.

dunsandin wrote: »

3. Our Tax rates and Tax base are unsustainable and need to be reviewed urgently. This is only now being looked at because of external pressure.

Agreed again - we stupidly narrowed the base during the boom. I say "we", because "we" as an electorate elected and re-elected the government who did it.

dunsandin wrote: »

Just because some of us may not be eloquent enough nor au-fait enough with statistics, that does not make our opinions invalid or extremist. And I'm not a chicken licken, the skys falling type, I just think change is coming, and I actually welcome it with open arms. What I don't welcome is the hardship that will be imposed through front-line service cuts because our political gombeens will skew any slash and burn in that direction, and not at the bloated higher levels.

equally cordially, Dunsandin.

I certainly hope change is coming, but I am, I suppose, pretty unremittingly cynical about its prospects. The extent to which Fianna Fáil has entrenched itself in Irish life at all levels, what with pensions, posts, board members, grants and favours makes it a really formidable force - and while I'd love to believe that Fine Gael would do things differently, a quick look around the councils and the memory of the otherwise fondly-remembered Rainbow government persuades me otherwise.

The Irish electorate has disposed of one party that wanted to be different, and is probably about to dispose of another. Those who wanted change have tried to use those parties as agents of change, and has thrown them aside in disgust when they've proved unequal to the task - those, on the other hand, who want no change, want no change, and they've had the electoral upper hand throughout Irish history. I don't see that that's changed, so I expect window dressing once again. The EU's mutual scrutiny and recommendations process may be the only lasting change that comes out of this mess, and even that, for all the ballyhoo, will likely fade away to a toothless tut-tutting session as normal economic conditions return.

cordially,
Scofflaw

dunsandin

Scofflaw wrote: »

. The EU's mutual scrutiny and recommendations process may be the only lasting change that comes out of this mess, and even that, for all the ballyhoo, will likely fade away to a toothless tut-tutting session as normal economic conditions return.

Sadly, I think you are right about this. It will be a case of do whatever it takes to ride out the "difficulty", and then quietly revert to type.
Heard Moore McTool on t.l.w today, and he was saying how hard it was to try and deflate an economy while also stimulating economic output. Struck me as a contradiction in terms. A few other commentators were openly mooting a 15.5% CT rate as being a distinct possibility in the near future - its becoming a more accepted possibility.