Champions' Meeting

HigginsJ

3 unbeaten colts of immense potential.

If Frankel, Saamid and Dream Ahead line up this could be one of the bes Dewhursts in memory. I'll be with Frankel.

Frankel and Saamid will go.
Dream Ahead is up in the air.

I wonder if they would look to supplement Casamento just to add a little bit extra.

Looks like Aidan O'Brien has very little two year old ammunition. Zoffany is ok but couldnt see him holding a candle to the top 3 or Casamento.

Goldcupfav

Zoffany aint entered in the Dewhurst.

http://www.attheraces.com/card.aspx?raceid=293258&meetingid=&date=2010-10-16&ref=form&refsite=

Colonel Sanders

Nick Mordin on Frankel:

CAN FRANKEL SHOW THE SAME FORM OFF A STRONG EARLY PACE?

One horse that taught me a good lesson about the effect of pace many years ago was a South African colt called Big Swinger.

Big Swinger was a very athletic horse whose over-abundant muscles made him very good at short burst activity, like a body builder is. He could pick up in sensational style off a slow early pace. He'd quicken up to sprint right away from his rivals and look like a champion. But when he contested a truly run race the finish was run out of him and he'd fold up like a pricked balloon.

Big Swinger never actually won above Listed class despite looking astonishingly good on several occasions in tactically run races against lesser rivals.

I always saw Big Swinger as something of a freak and never thought I'd see his like again. But FRANKEL (32), the winner of last week's Royal Lodge Stakes, reminds me an awful lot of him.

In the Royal Lodge Stakes the early pace was very moderate. They reached the three furlong from home marker a massive 4.7 seconds later than they did in the QEII on the same card. But when Frankel was shaken up and asked to quicken up from there he did so in the most extraordinary fashion. He actually ran the last three furlongs 2.7 seconds quicker than they did in the QEII. I clocked him doing it in 35.7 seconds despite the fact that the going was yielding and the finish steeply uphill. That's bordering on impossible. So it's hardly surprising Frankel was able to run right away from his rivals to score by ten lengths.

Frankel did something very similar at Doncaster on his previous outing when skating thirteen lengths clear over the last three furlongs in a small field at Doncaster where the early pace was slow for the first half mile.

On his debut, the only occasion he ran in anything like a strongly run race, Frankel scrambled home by just half a length in a maiden.

Frankel's half brother Bullet Train has a similar, hyper-muscular physique and shows the same sharp contrast to his form in slow and strongly run races.

If I invoke the sectional timing formula I use to adjust my speed ratings in slow run races I'd have to give Frankel a rating which suggests he'd have gone close in the QEII itself. But in this instance I have to question whether my formula isn't simply producing a hypothetical rating that Frankel could never produce in a truly run race.

If I could be sure that the pace was going to be slow I'd bet Frankel to beat basically anything over seven furlongs or a mile. But things are going to get a whole lot harder for him from now on because he'll be stepping up to Group 1 company where slow run races are uncommon - at least in Britain and Ireland.

If he were mine the race I'd be shooting for with Frankel this year is the Criterium de Saint Cloud. Next year I'd be focusing his early campaign around the French Guineas. Those races are often slow run. But the Dewhurst, the Racing Post Trophy and the British Guineas are usually strongly run affairs.

It will be interesting to see how Frankel holds up when he's asked to go a strong pace from the start. My suspicion is that he'll run like Big Swinger and his half brother Bullet Train and tire in the closing stages.

My theory looks likely to get a good test in the near future as it seems likely Frankel will head to the Dewhurst Stakes for his next run. In that race Aidan O'Brien will surely employ pacemakers to ensure it's a stiff enough test for Zoffany.

Judged by the comments of trainer Henry Cecil he shares my view that there's only an outside chance Frankel would last the Derby distance. I'd be most surprised if he lined up at Epsom. The horse is all about speed rather than stamina.

supremenovice

Lets hope it works out a litle better than the 2009 renewal.

1st Beethoven
2nd Fencing Master
3rd Xtension
4th Steinbeck

cards

Does anyone know can you do a tricast in saturdays race because there are now only 6 runners and how many combinations or what kind of a bet do I ask for the top three to place in any order? thanks.

UrbanSea

Don't think you can,just an exacta or forecast I think,but could be wrong. I'd be with Dream Ahead at the current prices.

convert

Thread title changed by request

UrbanSea

Good start to the meeting I think,Godolphin had a nice looking filly in the fillies' listed race. Mastery had a good race over a trip which I think is the bare minimum for him.
I saw Frankie on tv yesterday,he really fancies Delegator tomorrow.

UrbanSea

Await the Dawn doesn't go in the Champion Stakes tomorrow,raging,that horse could be anything by the looks of it.

Hawk Wing 2

supremenovice wrote: »

Lets hope it works out a litle better than the 2009 renewal.

1st Beethoven
2nd Fencing Master
3rd Xtension
4th Steinbeck

Wouldn't be hard in fairness, this Dewhurst is mouthwatering

TheMilkyPirate

HigginsJ wrote: »

3 unbeaten colts of immense potential.

If Frankel, Saamid and Dream Ahead line up this could be one of the bes Dewhursts in memory. I'll be with Frankel.

Frankel and Saamid will go.
Dream Ahead is up in the air.

I wonder if they would look to supplement Casamento just to add a little bit extra.

Looks like Aidan O'Brien has very little two year old ammunition. Zoffany is ok but couldnt see him holding a candle to the top 3 or Casamento.

EDIT: Misread post, Ignore.

Nulty

Weird race. It'll take a bit of analysing but we've got until April at least to assess it.

UrbanSea

Anyone else a bit disappointed with the race?

sonnky

Very. I don't rate Frankel highly, even though he is a good horse but Roderic O Connor will surely improve. Frankel 5-6 for the 2000 Guineas.

Nulty

Everything went against Frankel. Bumped at the start, in fact sandwiched at the start, keen as anything, quickened takingly (yet to see the time) and pushed out (no persuader). He looks serious. I'd rather be with him than against him.

UrbanSea

I wouldn't have him odds on for the Guineas,beating that Coolmore horse doesn't say a huge amount I think,he was 12/1 for the maiden he won and wasn't even first choice of the stable in that race.

UrbanSea

Having said that,he clearly is the most likely winner of the Guineas. But how many favourites win the Guineas?

gscully

greetings wrote: »

I wouldn't have him odds on for the Guineas,beating that Coolmore horse doesn't say a huge amount I think,he was 12/1 for the maiden he won and wasn't even first choice of the stable in that race.

That Coolmore horse was impressive considering he tried to make all and when they hit the climb inside the last furlong he pulled away from the other horses and gained back some ground on Frankel. Before the race C4 were remarking that he was a small horse. He's obviously got speed and stamina and may well beef up over the winter. The transition from 2 to 3 is huge for a horse, so who knows what'll happen! Frankel may well regress, but he looked class today.

UrbanSea

If you can handle a quick 7 over Newmarket with the dip,10 or 12 furlongs should be manageable when going to a 3 year old

LutherBlissett

I'd say at this stage, odds on is plenty short enough for Frankel in the Guineas.

Dream Ahead and Saamid both failed to fire, apparently due to the ground.

Roderic O' Connor and Glor na Mara both ran likeable races, but neither has any significant formlines going into this race. (I know Jim Bolger is quite keen on Glor na Mara, but he did concede in the Racing Post that the horse, while nice, may be slightly short of top class.)

Frankel quickened away handily and had it in the bag far enough from home, but the thing that gets me about him is that he looks quite spare in frame, and I'd like to see him grow out a bit over the winter before I'd definitely be on him for the Guineas. Sometimes with slight horses, it seems that as 3yos they are vulnerable to challenges from horses that were average as 2yos, but made a lot of physical progress before their 3yo campaign.

hucklebuck

Frankel yet again looked very good today and I am happy to have him at 4's for the Guineas. The odds of 5/4 would not put me off backing him but not in Ante Post with some growing to be done by all the 2 year olds.

I will back him for it but want to see him next season before I have a smash:)

Nulty

Think he'll go to the Lingfield trial like Bullet Train? Maybe the one that Cape Blanco won (forgot the name)

UrbanSea

You are thinking of the Dante I believe. I don't think an obvious choice would be a group 2 after winning the Dewhurst. I wouldn't be surprised to see him go there without a run. Really doubt he'd run in a group 3 derby trial at Lingfield.

HigginsJ

Frankel is impossible to oppose for the Guineas.

Dream Eater has done all his winning over 6f, Saamid is in care of Godolphin, Pathfork wont be there, Zoffany and Strong Suit look just below top class. Cassamento is potentially very good but may be held for the Irish Guineas.

Unless Frankel is another Rainbow View then he wins Guineas comfortably. Most exciting 2yo colt since New Approach and Teofilo. (Sea the Stars was not a 2yo Champion)

UrbanSea

That's what I hate about ante post,he could come back and disappoint big time,due to not progressing over the winter(but is in excellent hands) or due to a vast improvement from other unexposed 2 year olds.
You can St Nicholas Abbey to that list aswell Higgins. Both him and Rainbow View were in some of the best hands in the business and still disappointed in the Guineas,so I can't say I'd be taking 5/4 at the monent for a race in May. If the race were to be run today,I would take 4/6,but not a race in 7 or 8 months.

HigginsJ

thats a fair point.

The only thing i would say is you cant really bet on what may or may not happen over the winter. Unless something really impresses in the Racing Post next weekend (Cassamento) then as long as Cecil says he is fit and ready to go in the Guineas Frankel is the only horse you can be on.

Everything else will have questions to answer.

gscully

HigginsJ wrote: »

thats a fair point.

The only thing i would say is you cant really bet on what may or may not happen over the winter. Unless something really impresses in the Racing Post next weekend (Cassamento) then as long as Cecil says he is fit and ready to go in the Guineas Frankel is the only horse you can be on.

Everything else will have questions to answer.

Not necessarily so. While some horses regress when they turn three, some others progress. As you've already pointed out, Sea The Stars was beaten as a 2yo, yet unbeatable as a 3yo. Another horse or two may come into the equation. I was definitely impressed with Roderic O'Connor.

I'm not disputing that Frankel can be a brilliant 3yo, just saying that no 2yo is worth an ante-post bet for his 3yo season. St Nicholas Abbey & Teofilo prove that.

HigginsJ

I wont be betting Frankel Ante-Post but if he turns up fit for Guineas and Cecil says he is ready i will be on regardless of price.

Nulty

I admit I have Frankel for the Guineas in an multiple with the Breeders Cup Ladies.

(I'm sure you can figure out who they are (3))

hucklebuck

Dunboyne Express could be worth a few quid in the ante post for the Guineas and Derby before the weekend, his form looks solid and he could well come out as a better 3 year old.

He is 25/1 for the Guineas and 33/1 for the Derby.

UrbanSea

gscully wrote: »

Not necessarily so. While some horses regress when they turn three, some others progress. As you've already pointed out, Sea The Stars was beaten as a 2yo, yet unbeatable as a 3yo.

He didn't mention that Sea the Stars was beaten at 2,and I wouldn't use that as a valid argument,he was beaten about 2 lengths in a maiden first time out,John Oxx is notoriously good for taking care of juvenile horses and he wasn't given a tough ride on his first go. What he meant was that he wasn't a champion 2 year old,he only ran in the Beresford (Gr.2) and didn't take part in any of the group 1 races across the water at 2.

Nulty wrote: »

I admit I have Frankel for the Guineas in an multiple with the Breeders Cup Ladies.

(I'm sure you can figure out who they are (3))

Goldikova,Middday,Zenyatta?

hucklebuck wrote: »

Dunboyne Express could be worth a few quid in the ante post for the Guineas and Derby before the weekend, his form looks solid and he could well come out as a better 3 year old.

He is 25/1 for the Guineas and 33/1 for the Derby.

I'd put money on him being in the hands of Godolphin next season.

hucklebuck

greetings wrote: »

He didn't mention that Sea the Stars was beaten at 2,and I wouldn't use that as a valid argument,he was beaten about 2 lengths in a maiden first time out,John Oxx is notoriously good for taking care of juvenile horses and he wasn't given a tough ride on his first go. What he meant was that he wasn't a champion 2 year old,he only ran in the Beresford (Gr.2) and didn't take part in any of the group 1 races across the water at 2.


Goldikova,Middday,Zenyatta?


I'd put money on him being in the hands of Godolphin next season.

You should do an each way double, Godolphin and The Guineas:D