Allied Irish Bank may be nationalised later today

hotmail.com

A tweet from FG TD Denis Naughton tonight:

AIB on brink of nationalisation,Ireland now on brink.Need all party budget!

http://twitter.com/DenisNaughten

This comes after David McWilliams said on Vincent Browne that Brian Lenihan intends to buy 70 percent of AIB for €3 billion and that this will be made public tomorrow.

He says that the entire shareholding of AIB today is valued at €600 million on the stock market.

Thus, AIB will effectively be state owned after today if this pans out.

The largest bank in Ireland getting nationalised. This will surely worsen the little confidence there is, in this country.

This is after Lenihan said we turned a corner last December. I think Lenihan is part of the problem and should resign.

TheReverend

what does that mean for people who have savings in AIB?

c montgomery

TheReverend wrote: »

what does that mean for people who have savings in AIB?

Nothing unless you have over 100,000 in an account as the bank guarantee has been extended.

Victor

TheReverend wrote: »

what does that mean for people who have savings in AIB?

Not a lot of difference.

hotmail.com

TheReverend wrote: »

what does that mean for people who have savings in AIB?

Nothing because the bank guarantee was extended as of midnight on 30 September (2 hours ago). So all deposits are safe.

The impact on international confidence in the country and the cost of our borrowing is the serious concern is this happens later.

c montgomery

hotmail.com wrote: »

A tweet from FG TD Denis Naughton tonight:



http://twitter.com/DenisNaughten

This comes after David McWilliams said on Vincent Browne that Brian Lenihan intends to buy 70 percent of AIB for €3 billion and that this will be made public tomorrow.

He says that the entire shareholding of AIB today is valued at €600 million on the stock market.

Thus, AIB will effectively be state owned after today if this pans out.

The largest bank in Ireland getting nationalised. This will surely worsen the little confidence there is, in this country.

This is after Lenihan said we turned a corner last December. I think Lenihan is part of the problem and should resign.

Why would he pay 3 billion for 70% of something that is only worth 600million???

I must be missing something.

hotmail.com

c montgomery wrote: »

Why would he pay 3 billion for 70% of something that is only worth 600million???

I must be missing something.

I don't get it either, a bad bargain?

Here's a piece in todays Irish Times, by Simon Carswell

THE PROSPECT of the Government taking majority control of the State’s largest bank, Allied Irish Banks (AIB) is almost inevitable as the bank needs to raise a further €2-€3 billion to cover higher expected losses.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2010/0930/1224279990514.html

Mr Benevolent

Various rumours flitting about AIB being nationalised very soon. Am I dreaming or is this utter madness?

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?threadid=2056047291

What with the Anglo total cost out later this morning, surely this is catastrophic timing on the government's part? Frankly, if this is true I will be appalled. Might as well run the country using trained monkeys from now on.

Ren2k7

WTF! Was about to go to sleep but after reading this now I'm afraid of the carnage that I'll awake to in the morning once the money markets hear this.

digme

who cares?

nadir

c montgomery wrote: »

Why would he pay 3 billion for 70% of something that is only worth 600million???

I must be missing something.

Well one thing your missing is that it's not just 'he' that's paying for it, it's us.

c montgomery

nadir wrote: »

Well one thing your missing is that it's not just 'he' that's paying for it, it's us.

Thanks for clearing that up:rolleyes:

The_Honeybadger

Confab wrote: »

Various rumours flitting about AIB being nationalised very soon. Am I dreaming or is this utter madness?

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?threadid=2056047291

What with the Anglo total cost out later this morning, surely this is catastrophic timing on the government's part? Frankly, if this is true I will be appalled. Might as well run the country using trained monkeys from now on.

AIB was always going to have to be nationalised, however it is not in nearly as big a hole as Anglo, and we may recoup some of the money at a later date when it's balance sheet has been repaired and we can sell it on. Not ideal, I'm just saying most people saw this coming. If it is not nationalised in the next six months, then it will be once a wave of mortgage defaults finish it off over the coming years.

Red_Marauder

Well looks like we made the front page of the Financial Times today.

For all the wrong reasons.

Cookie_Monster

announced this morning @ 6.30 that they will be according to Newstalk

lucy2010

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/taxpayers-facing-29bn-final-bill-for-anglo-475707.html

This was the bit I liked
Mr Lenihan warned taxpayers that further “significant” measures will be needed next year – over and above already announced cuts – to reduce the country’s borrowing.

Amhran Nua

Remember folks, its not "Nationalised", its "Majority State Owned" according to the publicans' party.

Cookie_Monster

lucy2010 wrote: »

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/taxpayers-facing-29bn-final-bill-for-anglo-475707.html

This was the bit I liked
Mr Lenihan warned taxpayers that further “significant” measures will be needed next year – over and above already announced cuts – to reduce the country’s borrowing.

as long as those measures include the burning of the Croke Park agreement I'd be happy enough

ei.sdraob

hotmail.com wrote: »

Nothing because the bank guarantee was extended as of midnight on 30 September (2 hours ago). So all deposits are safe.

The impact on international confidence in the country and the cost of our borrowing is the serious concern is this happens later.

oh for gods sake

in event of a bank run everyones deposits are not safe


the government doesnt have hundreds of billions or can access this amount in event of failure in order to pay out money to depositors
the most you might get is an IOU payable over a very long period of time and not keeping up with inflation

Byron85

Live press conference with Lenihan now.

http://www.rte.ie/live/index.html

jmayo

c montgomery wrote: »

Why would he pay 3 billion for 70% of something that is only worth 600million???

I must be missing something.

Will he didn't pay for it, we did.
It's part of his grand cheapest bailout plan.
Anyone hear him this monring spinning like the disengenous dodgy barrister that he is.
His line was "What I said at the time was correct for the time".
Thus when he said it was "the cheapest bailout at the time" he was correct. :rolleyes:
He is using the legal consels ways of twisting words to suit.

He is a very dangerous man and the sooner he is gone the better.

ei.sdraob wrote: »

oh for gods sake

in event of a bank run everyones deposits are not safe


the government doesnt have hundreds of billions or can access this amount in event of failure in order to pay out money to depositors
the most you might get is an IOU payable over a very long period of time and not keeping up with inflation

Ssssh don't be saying things like that.
Where's your patriotism ?
Be more like the hard working guys in Dept of Finance, NTMA, CB, NAMA who are out there battling to sell our bonds and save the country.

BTW I wonder did any of them work for MacAnthony Realty or the like ?

hallelujajordan

c montgomery wrote: »

Why would he pay 3 billion for 70% of something that is only worth 600million???

I must be missing something.

Yes, you are completely missing it . . Lenihan doesn't want to buy the bank and pay a fair price.

The bank need the money, they haven't been able to raise it on the open market, the state has to pay it or the bank goes bust. . Taking ownership of the bank is a side effect, which will enable us to recover our investment once the bank recovers.

flutered

j mayo, i uttered words similar to yours after he was appointed, the only difference is i got riddiculed, you are going to get agrement, why appoint a guy to a position, then appoint another guy to do his job for him, (an advisor).

hallelujajordan

jmayo wrote: »

Will he didn't pay for it, we did.
It's part of his grand cheapest bailout plan.
Anyone hear him this monring spinning like the disengenous dodgy barrister that he is.
His line was "What I said at the time was correct for the time".
Thus when he said it was "the cheapest bailout at the time" he was correct. :rolleyes:
He is using the legal consels ways of twisting words to suit.

He is a very dangerous man and the sooner he is gone the better.



Ssssh don't be saying things like that.
Where's your patriotism ?
Be more like the hard working guys in Dept of Finance, NTMA, CB, NAMA who are out there battling to sell our bonds and save the country.

BTW I wonder did any of them work for MacAnthony Realty or the like ?

Nonsense, what he said was that his view at the time based on the information that was available to him was that it was the cheapest bailout at the time . .

Lenihan, and others have had to make very difficult decisions based on the information they have available. . . Sometimes it turns out the information was wrong or limited and strategies have to be adjusted, not because Lenihan lied or got it wrong but because information or circumstances changed.

And he is right about the patriotism comments. . . I run a group of 500 people and I liken it to me trying to sell our product to the customer, while my team are shouting to the customer about how crap the product is. They might be right, but if I can't sell the product, they will all be redundant.

ei.sdraob

Brian Lenihan is being laughed at by journalists at the live event now

no one believes his **** anymore

ei.sdraob

hallelujajordan wrote: »

Nonsense, what he said was that his view at the time based on the information that was available to him was that it was the cheapest bailout at the time . .

Lenihan, and others have had to make very difficult decisions based on the information they have available. . . Sometimes it turns out the information was wrong or limited and strategies have to be adjusted, not because Lenihan lied or got it wrong but because information or circumstances changed.

And he is right about the patriotism comments. . . I run a group of 500 people and I liken it to me trying to sell our product to the customer, while my team are shouting to the customer about how crap the product is. They might be right, but if I can't sell the product, they will all be redundant.

Have you seen the first 10 mins of last primetime? with all the quotes from last 2 years...

they were consistently wrong at every single turn in the last 2 years, that is called gross incompetence!

we are paying these people running our country a **** load of money, so stop trying to excuse these wasters (of a colossal scale!)

Kintarō Hattori

I'm just about to take a small mortgage with AIB- a bad idea???

SomeGuyCalledMi

Kintarō Hattori wrote: »

I'm just about to take a small mortgage with AIB- a bad idea???

No, this makes no real difference to you.

dmm1000

with all this mornings news on banks and their problems - for us - the ordinary savers and current account holders in these banks - are our savings / money which reside in these current and savings accounts under threat - basically should we withdraw our monies and keep them under the mattress to keep them safe ? - is it that bad ? - thoughts anyone ?

Cool Mo D

dmm1000 wrote: »

with all this mornings news on banks and their problems - for us - the ordinary savers and current account holders in these banks - are our savings / money which reside in these current and savings accounts under threat - basically should we withdraw our monies and keep them under the mattress to keep them safe ? - is it that bad ? - thoughts anyone ?

No, it's the other way around. The Government is pumping billions of public money into the banks so that private investors (including people with deposits) don't have to take the hit on the banks losses due to bad debt. If they didn't put money into the banks, you would lose your money.

OhNoYouDidn't

Kintarō Hattori wrote: »

I'm just about to take a small mortgage with AIB- a bad idea???

Its a great idea. Worst case, they go bust and it takes them months, if not years, to pass on your loan to some third party, meaning you have the choice whether you pay up or not....

thebman

ei.sdraob wrote: »

Have you seen the first 10 mins of last primetime? with all the quotes from last 2 years...

they were consistently wrong at every single turn in the last 2 years, that is called gross incompetence!

we are paying these people running our country a **** load of money, so stop trying to excuse these wasters (of a colossal scale!)

Yes if the advice was consistently as bad as FF claim it was then they are still incompetent for continually listening to advice from people that were consistently getting it wrong.

jmayo

hallelujajordan wrote: »

Nonsense, what he said was that his view at the time based on the information that was available to him was that it was the cheapest bailout at the time . .

BS.
That is like me saying before I actually go to by a car and have it thouroughly checked out, that it is given the information I have at the time the cheapest car.
It is spinning.

hallelujajordan wrote: »

Lenihan, and others have had to make very difficult decisions based on the information they have available. . . Sometimes it turns out the information was wrong or limited and strategies have to be adjusted, not because Lenihan lied or got it wrong but because information or circumstances changed.

Sometimes ???
So far it has turned out that everytime it has been wrong.
Oh and speaking of information being wrong, why did he ignore information from very well paid consultants ?
Perhaps if he had heeded their information he might not need to adjust his strategies and WE might not be so fubarred.

hallelujajordan wrote: »

And he is right about the patriotism comments. . . I run a group of 500 people and I liken it to me trying to sell our product to the customer, while my team are shouting to the customer about how crap the product is. They might be right, but if I can't sell the product, they will all be redundant.

No, by patriotism he means shut your mouth, don't dare ask questions about why decisions were made and why WE are paying for the mistakes of others and indeed his mistakes.
As Samuel Johnson stated "Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel"

Kintarō Hattori wrote: »

I'm just about to take a small mortgage with AIB- a bad idea???

Won't matter since your mortgage will be bought by someone.
Now if you said you were investing in their shares, bonds or gving them large deposit my reposnse would be totally different.

Of course I am unpatriotic unlike good ould hallelujajordan :rolleyes:

hotmail.com

ei.sdraob wrote: »

Brian Lenihan is being laughed at by journalists at the live event now

no one believes his **** anymore

Lenihan is certainly a spoofer.

dan_d

To be fair, I thought that when Europe stress-tested our banks a couple of months ago, it was pretty obvious AIB was in trouble.
It passed (just) based on the assumption it could raise the required capital. Following the story of it's attempts to sell their Polish arm, among other things, it became increasingly obvious that the assumption was just that - an assumption.
Personally I'm not an AIB fan. This is not the second (?) time it's been bailed out in about 25 years. Might be time to take a hint on this one....can't let it go I know, but seriously, some very, very intense scrutiny needs to take place on what goes on in there, because something is obviously very,very wrong.

hotmail.com

AIB shares sliding, they're down 25%.

Mac daddy

His latest tweet

The IMF is on our doorstep. Its now time for a National Budget. See new blog posting.www.naughten.ie/blogs/a/85/article/

Mac daddy

its on sky new now

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/irish-bank-nationalised-over-collapse-fear-skynews-30aa9b2d1dde.html

testicle

Mac daddy wrote: »

its on sky new now

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/irish-bank-nationalised-over-collapse-fear-skynews-30aa9b2d1dde.html

Only problem is that's referring to AIB, but they call it Anglo, which has already been nationalised. Are news reporters so thick that they mix up AIB and Anglo?

Mac daddy

testicle wrote: »

Only problem is that's referring to AIB, but they call it Anglo, which has already been nationalised. Are news reporters so thick that they mix up AIB and Anglo?

This is Sky news after all

hinault

testicle wrote: »

Only problem is that's referring to AIB, but they call it Anglo, which has already been nationalised. Are news reporters so thick that they mix up AIB and Anglo?

AIB (allied irish bank) and AIB (anglo irish bank).

I always wondered how the regulators allowed anglo irish bank to retain the same abbreviation "AIB", as allied irish bank.

Little Miss Curious

I have a few hundred shares with AIB, what should I do? Sell and take the hit or leave them?

thomasj

Cookie_Monster wrote: »

as long as those measures include the burning of the Croke Park agreement I'd be happy enough

They don't need to burn the croke park agreement. The pay freeze is conditional on there being no exceptional circumstances. We CAN safely say we are in exceptional circumstances!

Cookie_Monster

thomasj wrote: »

They don't need to burn the croke park agreement. The pay freeze is conditional on there being no exceptional circumstances. We CAN safely say we are in exceptional circumstances!

yeah but I want to see it burned as a clear signal to all rather than just more sneaky back room doings out of the public eye

Stabshauptmann

c montgomery wrote: »

Why would he pay 3 billion for 70% of something that is only worth 600million???

I must be missing something.

Banks are required to hold capital reserves to cover the risks they are exposed to: Credit Risk, Market Risk and Operational risk.

AIB needs an additional 7.63bn according to the Financial Regulator.

They have been trying to raise this money via selling subsidiaries, reducing risk etc but they are 3bn short.

Its not a question of buying the bank, its a question of giving them enough capital to stay afloat. At the very least the gov should take control of the bank though (what ever its worth) if its going to be investing this much money in them

Enter Username

hallelujajordan wrote: »

.

And he is right about the patriotism comments. . . I run a group of 500 people and I liken it to me trying to sell our product to the customer, while my team are shouting to the customer about how crap the product is. They might be right, but if I can't sell the product, they will all be redundant.

You run a group of 500 people and yet you have the time to be surfing the net and commenting on internet forums @ 11am?? whats that i can smell

davoxx

Enter Username wrote: »

You run a group of 500 people and yet you have the time to be surfing the net and commenting on internet forums @ 11am?? whats that i can smell

that's what most owners/managers do ... feck all ... but they syphon the money out of the system .... think of how much the AIB bosses are(were) making and how often they are(were) in the 'office' ...

Enter Username

davoxx wrote: »

that's what most owners/managers do ... feck all ... but they syphon the money out of the system .... think of how much the AIB bosses are(were) making and how often they are(were) in the 'office' ...

Valid Point

Quandary

So the new guarantee runs for another 3 months...

My savings are locked into a 6 month interest rate in AIB - how worried should I be?

thomasj

Cookie_Monster wrote: »

yeah but I want to see it burned as a clear signal to all rather than just more sneaky back room doings out of the public eye

Why though? The croke park agreement was more than protecting public servants wages. It was also about a more efficient public sector. Just because there are probably going to be paycuts doesn't mean the rest of it can't be implemented.

ei.sdraob

Quandary wrote: »

So the new guarantee runs for another 3 months...

My savings are locked into a 6 month interest rate in AIB - how worried should I be?

How much do you trust the government that is broke to come true on its deposit guarantee promise in an (unlikely but not impossible) event of a bankrun? is the question you should be asking