Irish Times/TNS/MRBI Poll

Vinegar Hill

thejournal_ie
Irish Times IpsoS/MRBI #poll, satisfaction with party leaders: Brian Cowen, FF: 19 (+1), Enda Kenny, FG 25 (+1), Eamon Gilmore, Lab 49 (+3).

thejournal_ie
Irish Times Ipsos/MRBI opinion poll: FF 24 (+3). FG 24 (-3), Lab 33 (+4), Greens 2 (-2), SF 8 (-2), Others 9 (nc)

FF and FG equal, not good for Kenny.

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RATM

Gilmore is the real winner here. More results like this and FG will be regretting not getting rid of Kenny when the chance presented itself. People just don't like him or see him credible as Taoiseach but the over half the party didn't get that.

Koloman

Vinegar Hill wrote: »

thejournal_ie


FF and FG equal, not good for Kenny.

If Kenny is a true statesman he should resign immediately. It's not funny anymore.

Denerick

Kenny is an utter spastick, he should have stood down when Bruton moved against him. Bruton at least has some form in substantially criticising government policy during the boom, Kenny was a complete hack in the last election, pandering to Celtic Tiger voters and essentially backing the prevailing economic consensus. No wonder people in this country are so disillusioned by politics that they are willing to turn to the shameless populist Gilmore, who refuses to outline what he actually stands for, what he actually believes, what he would actually do. The man is a master of the populist soundbyte. The entire political class is a complete joke, populated by cute hoors and country bumpkins worried more about their little constituencies than about any kind of national interest.

Good to have that rant.

Drumpot

The less Gilemore talks the better his popularity . . :eek:

If people are looking for anecodal evidence of how disallusioned the Irish people are with our politicians this says it all really. .

GSF

Time foe Enda to do the decent thing & resign the leadership. A heave wont work but FG cant go on like this.

Scofflaw

Drumpot wrote: »

The less Gilemore talks the better his popularity . . :eek:

If people are looking for anecodal evidence of how disallusioned the Irish people are with our politicians this says it all really. .

I have to agree, even though Labour are my second most preferred party - what exactly are people satisfied with Gilmore about? What is there to be satisfied with, other than not being either Cowen or Kenny?

puzzled,
Scofflaw

StupidLikeAFox

http://www.labour.ie/policy/listing.html

Drumpot

ColHol wrote: »

http://www.labour.ie/policy/listing.html

Now thats the response of a true labour supporter . . Refer to website . . However, Debating of these policies is not encouraged . .

Ah labour, were less is more . .

bijapos

Its dire news for FG alright, appaling really seeing that one of the worst governments in the history of the state is in power.

Cue their diehard supporters telling us its "a snapshot in time" and at the same time telling us "its clear the people want this government out" out of the other side of their mouths.

Labour as mentioned doing well because they say nothing except rant at the incumbents, Greens are very bad.

Personally I'm happy to see the electorate are contemplating something other than the traditional two party state.

Foxhound38

Like it or not, the momentum behind Labour is becomming unstoppable. This is in no way an isolated result, this trend has been going on for months and now they have a 9 point lead. Who would have thought in 2007 that Comrade Gilmore would be in with any kind of chance at the Taoiseachs office, but who can seriously make the claim that he isn't a legitimate threat to FF and FG now?

Interesting times we live in people, interesting times...

bijapos

Scofflaw wrote: »

- what exactly are people satisfied with Gilmore about?
puzzled,
Scofflaw

Gilmore tells people what they want to hear, not what they need to hear.

The traditional recourse of the opposition politician.

unit 1

Some great ideas around here. Ask 1000 people their opinion, and if they don't like Kenny he should go. What a joke.

Reality, most people vote for their local politician, not for the party leader, and his chance of being taoiseach. This means that the questions regarding Kennys popularity are just opinions, and have a very small influence on the overall election results.
For example asking voters in say Lucinda's constituency their opinion on Kenny means nothing if they will vote for Lucinda anyway, but of course the media will never admit this as they have to get their man, and seem to be relentlessly pursuing their anti Kenny (western taoiseach) agenda.
I for one hope FG have the courage to keep their nerve, and I believe that if they do they will reap their rewards when the "earnest bertie clone" Gilmore is finally exposed as the windbag that he is.

Denerick

This 'Mayo patriotism' is part of the problem. Stop thinking in terms of county jerseys, start thinking of the national interest. Please.

View

Labour seem to have momentum behind them.

I wonder how high they can go in the polls?

If they go much higher people in constituencies that have never elected a Labour TD will suddenly realise they don't have to confine themselves to the FF-FG option they have faced in the past but, instead, they have a realistic chance electing a Labour TD if they take the trouble to actually vote for them. If that happens, the next election results could be really interesting.

Sir Oxman

unit 1 wrote: »

Some great ideas around here. Ask 1000 people their opinion, and if they don't like Kenny he should go. What a joke.

Reality, most people vote for their local politician, not for the party leader, and his chance of being taoiseach. This means that the questions regarding Kennys popularity are just opinions, and have a very small influence on the overall election results.
For example asking voters in say Lucinda's constituency their opinion on Kenny means nothing if they will vote for Lucinda anyway, but of course the media will never admit this as they have to get their man, and seem to be relentlessly pursuing their anti Kenny (western taoiseach) agenda.
I for one hope FG have the courage to keep their nerve, and I believe that if they do they will reap their rewards when the "earnest bertie clone" Gilmore is finally exposed as the windbag that he is.

The worrying trend in all the polls is the total stagnation of FG's percentage (or decline if this poll is to be believed)

It's really unbelievable that the main opposition party at this time are either stuck not gaining support or amazingly, haemorraging support.

Is that all down to Kenny?
I wonder.

gizmo555

gambiaman wrote: »

It's really unbelievable that the main opposition party at this time are either stuck not gaining support or amazingly, haemorraging support?

Isn't the obvious conclusion that Fine Gael is no longer the 'main opposition party'?

Scofflaw

gizmo555 wrote: »

Isn't the obvious conclusion that Fine Gael is no longer the 'main opposition party'?

Certainly, they seem to be failing to position themselves as a real alternative. There may be a feeling that they're simply Fianna Fáil #2 waiting for their turn in the sun, which is, frankly, grossly unfair.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Rubik.

The only thing the Red C poll and this one has in common is FF at 24%, which isn't that far off TV3's 22%.

steelcityblues

There is little to no point for FG in gettng rid of Kenny now - they had the chance earlier in the year and several members chickened out at the end!

FF would make the most out of this failed coup at the next General Election!

Sir Oxman

gizmo555 wrote: »

Isn't the obvious conclusion that Fine Gael is no longer the 'main opposition party'?

Well, on current Dail strength, they are the main opposition.

Mrmoe

FG would be better off waiting until next year before making another heave on Kenny. There is not much point in doing it now so soon after the last attempt. If FG want to be the main party in the next government then Kenny will have to go. If they want to settle for a junior role then Kenny will stay.

hallelujajordan

If Kenny doesn't go now he will go in March when Labour give them a drubbing at the by-elections. He would be doing his party and the country a favour by stepping aside before then. He won't though and after Brutons failed attempt there is unlikely to be another heave.

I wonder if Kennys friends are beginning to rue their loyalty. They will when they end up sitting around a cabinet table with Taoiseach Gilmore.

gizmo555

Scofflaw wrote: »

Certainly, they seem to be failing to position themselves as a real alternative. There may be a feeling that they're simply Fianna Fáil #2 waiting for their turn in the sun, which is, frankly, grossly unfair.

Well, I would concur with the views expresed by Tariq Ali on one of the RTE radio news programmes covering the British Labour party leadership election last weekend. I'm paraphrasing, but the gist of his comments was that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael were firstly, unrecognisable and unclassifiable in terms of the typical norms of most European politcal systems, e.g, social democrat vs Christian democrat, etc; and secondly, to outsiders are essentially indistinguishable from each other.

If there's one silver lining which the present political and economic stormclouds may hold, it's that Irish politics may finally mature beyond the traditional civil war divisions that have bedevilled us since independence, giving us proper competition between genuinely differing political arguments and ideas.

Floppybits

If Fine Gael want to be in government, I think they are going to have to go through a name change. The problem in this country is still the civil war politics that created the two largest parties. I think it is time that Fine Gael change their name to something more relevant and draw a line under this civil crap.

They also need to come out looking stronger and unfortunately under Enda that are not showing that, every time they try to do something it back fires and makes them look incompetent. Just look at what happened with the pairings this week. The problem with Enda is that he doesnt look the strong leader type and he is being bullied by Labour, by Fianna Fail and more than likely by people in his own party. I know halloween is only around the corner, but for me Enda is not scary enough, he is too wishy washy, you wouldn't have second thoughts going up and telling Enda what you think of him but you might have a second thought in terms of Cowen and Gilmore?

Flimbos

unit 1 wrote: »

Reality, most people vote for their local politician, not for the party leader, and his chance of being taoiseach. This means that the questions regarding Kennys popularity are just opinions, and have a very small influence on the overall election results.

But you're forgetting the floating voter, such as myself. For example, Leo Varadkar represents my own constituency. I like him, and would probably vote for him. But knowing that a vote for him is an endorsement for Kenny as Taoiseach makes me uneasy. If Richard Bruton had won the FG leadership, my choice would be a lot easier.

If Enda Kenny wants his party to be running the country, he needs to step down. The swing votes will win the election.

Floppybits wrote: »

If Fine Gael want to be in government, I think they are going to have to go through a name change. The problem in this country is still the civil war politics that created the two largest parties.

Good point. I can't stand listening to civil war bickering, like who is speaking at the Michael Collins memorial, there is no place for it in modern Irish politics.

paddy462

I can't believe Fianna Fail are on the rise and solid in some polls.

Floppybits

paddy462 wrote: »

I can't believe Fianna Fail are on the rise and solid in some polls.

I cant believe they still exist. In any other country most of the ministers would have resigned by now based on their performances in their positions.

BluePlanet

gizmo555 wrote: »

If there's one silver lining which the present political and economic stormclouds may hold, it's that Irish politics may finally mature beyond the traditional civil war divisions that have bedevilled us since independence, giving us proper competition between genuinely differing political arguments and ideas.

What's so desireable about having distinct Left Wing vs Right Wing political parties?
I rather like our nebulous version.

paddy462

A lot of people seem to be accepting the governments line on the banks. Tax payers money if used should only be used to protect the people and the deposits of the bank.

unit 1

Flimbos wrote: »

But you're forgetting the floating voter, such as myself. For example, Leo Varadkar represents my own constituency. I like him, and would probably vote for him. But knowing that a vote for him is an endorsement for Kenny as Taoiseach makes me uneasy. If Richard Bruton had won the FG leadership, my choice would be a lot easier.

If Enda Kenny wants his party to be running the country, he needs to step down. The swing votes will win the election.



Good point. I can't stand listening to civil war bickering, like who is speaking at the Michael Collins memorial, there is no place for it in modern Irish politics.

But you must know surely that RB would be better in finance than taoiseach, and at the end of the day even most floating voters need their comfort blanket and revert to type (just like FF in the last election, eg breakfast roll man, when anyone with half a brain knew things could not go on forever, but their comfort blanket bertie was there)
Indeed I would suggest that most so called floating voters only think they are (especially in opinion polls with nothing at stake), and revert to type on the day. Why do I think this?, because I was one myself, but when I thought about it deep down I realised I was'nt.

BlaasForRafa

Floppybits wrote: »

I cant believe they still exist. In any other country most of the ministers would have resigned by now based on their performances in their positions.

Fianna Fail are only that high because FG are so poor. Ever since the country n'western wing of FG won in the heave its been from bad to worse for them. This pairing arrangment business was just another poor move and the public saw through it.

Labour are coasting along saying nothing remotely controversial and especially saying nothing about what they would do in future budgets to reduce the deficit.

maynooth_rules

BlaasForRafa wrote: »

Fianna Fail are only that high because FG are so poor. Ever since the country n'western wing of FG won in the heave its been from bad to worse for them. This pairing arrangment business was just another poor move and the public saw through it.

Labour are coasting along saying nothing remotely controversial and especially saying nothing about what they would do in future budgets to reduce the deficit.

is that not slightly indicative of what is wrong with the electorate in this country. Fine Gael give their opinion on every matter and have layed out all their policies quite clearly. Labour on the other hand have been nothing but vague and yet the public are lapping it up. Enda kenny tells the truth a couple of weeks ago and says it will take 10 years to fix the economy and is again hounded from the electorate. it is like most of the people of this country want nice little soundbites rather than solid policies. And i really really wish that people would look beyond Kenny and actually look at the talen in FG. This leader of a party being the be all and end all is horse****.

irishh_bob

BluePlanet wrote: »

What's so desireable about having distinct Left Wing vs Right Wing political parties?
I rather like our nebulous version.

our current system results in endless fence sitting , horse trading and diluting and fudging of issues

BlaasForRafa

maynooth_rules wrote: »

is that not slightly indicative of what is wrong with the electorate in this country. Fine Gael give their opinion on every matter and have layed out all their policies quite clearly. Labour on the other hand have been nothing but vague and yet the public are lapping it up. Enda kenny tells the truth a couple of weeks ago and says it will take 10 years to fix the economy and is again hounded from the electorate. it is like most of the people of this country want nice little soundbites rather than solid policies. And i really really wish that people would look beyond Kenny and actually look at the talen in FG. This leader of a party being the be all and end all is horse****.

The problem is the talent in FG like Varadker and Bruton and er... em...the other one... got beaten out by the stumblebums during the heave.

As for the electorate I think theres a certain proportion who think that the country will be able to get through the next few years without cuts to essential services and without cuts to public servants and gilmore seems to be the only one thats playing to that demographic.

keary79

are people going for FF because of brian lenihan
how about a labour majority and FF minority government
eamon gilmore and brian lenihan could be good combination

maynooth_rules

keary79 wrote: »

are people going for FF because of brian lenihan
how about a labour majority and FF minority government
eamon gilmore and brian lenihan could be good combination

The Brian lenihan that included Anglo Irish in the back guarantee, The Brian lenihan that originally said the Anglo bail would cost just over 4 billion, the Brian lenihan that said that said our bank recapitalisation would be the best attempted in the world, the Brian lenihan that reversed the pay cuts for the very top earning public service workers. Brain Lenihan would be a disaster as leader of this country at this time, its time people looked past how nice and sincere he is in interviews and look at just how much he has got wrong in the past 2 years.

gizmo555

BluePlanet wrote: »

What's so desireable about having distinct Left Wing vs Right Wing political parties?
I rather like our nebulous version.

I didn't say left vs right, necessarily. Just some way of distinguishing between the two largest parties here would be nice. As it is, you could not have got a cigarette paper between their policies in the last general election campaign. Trying as they do, to be all things to to all men, they usually end up being nothing to anyone.

One of the main reasons for Irish people's very high levels of cynicism and disillusionment with Irish politics is the widespread and justified sense that "they're all the same" and it makes no difference who gets into power.