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Two Bed City Centre Apartment - How Low Can It Go?
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28-09-2010 6:19am#1
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You want to buy it as an investment?
In that case you should wait at least another 2 - 3 years otherwise it will be a bad investment.
At least 50% of Ireland are still in total denial of how _destroyed_ Ireland is, so there is a long wait to go yet before we hit the bottom.0 -
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[QUOTE=
While, like I said, I would be willing to pay €200k for the right place, obviously, I wouldn't do that if I could get it for less.
So, how low can it go?[/QUOTE]
Lets see -that question can be answered after the next 4 budgets & beyond when presumably all the following negative factors will probably impact on current property prices:
A) Income taxes will rise substantially for everybody
Significant Property taxes will be introduced for owners
C) Significant Indirect tax increases- VAT/Excise
D) Interest relief for investors will be further reduced from current 75%
E) Rent Allowance will be decreased by some material percentage
F) Personal Insolvencies will increase when the law is changed in their favour
G) Continued downward wage pressures-or no pay increases at least till 2013
H) As competition in Banking is reduced then mortgage margins will rise
I) Emigration will continue by current and future potential homeowners
J) NAMA releasing finished properties onto the market mopping up demand
K) ECB raising interest rates to normal levels, ie by 1.5%-2.5%
L) Property owners/investors in tight financial straits will be forced to sell
M) People realise that property in Ireland is still expensive vs other countries
N) More builders are put into receivership and properties are sold at large discounts to current prices as has happened recently where €120k properties had queues wanting to buy them (North west region I think)
O) Rising fuel prices decrease disposable income and discourage commuting
P) The Croke Park aggreement falls apart and public sector pay falls
Q) Unemployment rises and
R) The 12.5% Corporate tax rate rises and ECB/IMF step in when the government falls after the 3 byelections and Bonds become too expensive for Ireland to issue.
T) Deflation or very low inflation causes debt to have to be repaid in full rather than inflated away at lenders expense.
U) Stiffer regulation forces banks to provide mortgages with more caution
V) Interbank lending to Irish Banks does not return to precrisis levels and the Banks have to price margins very conservatively-A given
W) Building costs decline further as NERA is disbanded and new build houses can be profitably sold for less.
X) Development land has plummeted so land costs can lead to further downward pressure on prices of future developments.
Y) Commercial rents continue to decline and contagion negative pressures apply to residential rents leading to lower property asking prices
Z) Contrarily the current booming birth rate will provide demand in 25 years time-for subsidised housing at the least!
Markets usually swing in extremes so I read -so the bottom could well be lower than anyone fears! Personally I hope they do fall a lot more so that average earners can afford decent accomodation, After all this is a sparsely populated island and realistically property prices should be lower than nearby countries with much higher density. High property prices just turn owners into lifelong mortgage slaves-so let the falls continue till we are competitive again.
Mr Black0 -
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Lets see -that question can be answered after the next 4 budgets & beyond when presumably all the following negative factors will probably impact on current property prices:
A) Income taxes will rise substantially for everybody Significant Property taxes will be introduced for owners
C) Significant Indirect tax increases- VAT/Excise
D) Interest relief for investors will be further reduced from current 75%
E) Rent Allowance will be decreased by some material percentage
F) Personal Insolvencies will increase when the law is changed in their favour
G) Continued downward wage pressures-or no pay increases at least till 2013
H) As competition in Banking is reduced then mortgage margins will rise
I) Emigration will continue by current and future potential homeowners
J) NAMA releasing finished properties onto the market mopping up demand
K) ECB raising interest rates to normal levels, ie by 1.5%-2.5%
L) Property owners/investors in tight financial straits will be forced to sell
M) People realise that property in Ireland is still expensive vs other countries
N) More builders are put into receivership and properties are sold at large discounts to current prices as has happened recently where €120k properties had queues wanting to buy them (North west region I think)
O) Rising fuel prices decrease disposable income and discourage commuting
P) The Croke Park aggreement falls apart and public sector pay falls
Q) Unemployment rises and
R) The 12.5% Corporate tax rate rises and ECB/IMF step in when the government falls after the 3 byelections and Bonds become too expensive for Ireland to issue.
T) Deflation or very low inflation causes debt to have to be repaid in full rather than inflated away at lenders expense.
U) Stiffer regulation forces banks to provide mortgages with more caution
V) Interbank lending to Irish Banks does not return to precrisis levels and the Banks have to price margins very conservatively-A given
W) Building costs decline further as NERA is disbanded and new build houses can be profitably sold for less.
X) Development land has plummeted so land costs can lead to further downward pressure on prices of future developments.
Y) Commercial rents continue to decline and contagion negative pressures apply to residential rents leading to lower property asking prices
Z) Contrarily the current booming birth rate will provide demand in 25 years time-for subsidised housing at the least!
Markets usually swing in extremes so I read -so the bottom could well be lower than anyone fears! Personally I hope they do fall a lot more so that average earners can afford decent accomodation, After all this is a sparsely populated island and realistically property prices should be lower than nearby countries with much higher density. High property prices just turn owners into lifelong mortgage slaves-so let the falls continue till we are competitive again.
Mr Black
Gotcha. I'm an Irish - Get Me Out Of Here!!!0 -
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