EPL Match Betting Challenge (Week 6) - Manchester City vs Chelsea

Nuri Sahin

The early weekend match between Man City(4th) vs Chelsea(1st) is the game you folks have chosen for matchday 6.

* The match is live on Sky Sports 1 and kick off is at 12.45PM this Saturday.

Man City have been a mixed bag this season results wise. From the impressive and comfortable home and away wins vs Liverpool and Wigan, to losing in the dying seconds to Sunderland(which many teams will do in fairness.. sprinkled with a couple of draws in there. One of which was quite surprising vs Blackburn at home.

Injury wise, City's defence has had some problems including new signings Kolarov and Boetang. Micah Richards is the most recent injury concern for Mancini and is a doubt for Saturday after picking up a knock. edit - Balotelli I'm fairly sure will miss the game too.

Chelsea meanwhile have continued the form from the latter part of last season that has seen them steam roll. over their opponents with ruthless efficiency. In saying that, if there is anything stick to hit Chelsea with it will be that they've faced the lesser teams of the EPL so far. Teams such - West Brom, Stoke, West Ham, Wigan and Blackpool. So this Saturday no doubt is their first proper test.

Kalou and Benayoun look set to miss the match after picking up knocks, like Richards this is due to the Carling Cup matches in midweek.

edit -Lampard will definitely miss the game as well.

This fixture last season went to the side from the North West. City winning impressively both home and away vs Chelsea. Excluding last season though... Chelsea have dominated this fixture over recent years.

Betting on W/D/L:
Manchester City - 5/2
Draw - 23/10
Chelsea - 11/10

For the odds of all the bookies, see the link:
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/manchester-city-v-chelsea/winner

Good luck everyone

The Walsho

Wasn't expecting such a nice price for Chelsea. Quite fancy them for this.

Nuri Sahin

Zabaleta to be booked
*Waiting for odds on this. He looks set to continue at right back and will be up against arguably the best winger in the world at this time in Malouda. A.Cole will also provide a massive threat down that side as well. In general, the player to be booked market most interests me most in this match. Providing the odds are good.

Over 2.5 Goals @ 5/6
Previous encounters for the most part favor overs.

Insurebet 1st Goalscorer
Tevez @ 9/2
Malouda@ 11/2
Anelka @ 11/2

Tevez is City's main threat.
Malouda is scoring for fun, and is Chelsea's top scorer so far this season.
Anelka is returning to one of his many old stomping grounds. Should be very much up for it.

Tbf, all the goal markets concerning these 3 players are ones I'd look at for.

Wincast
Man City to win and Tevez anytime @ 5/1
Most likely scenario if City win IMHO

ValueSeeker

This must be the worst match there is to find value.

ValueSeeker

As Alves has mentioned, you will need to go to the much bigger priced markets to find value on this match IMO.

Anyone do the FSB MOTM markets? Dutching Tevez and Drogba for this would be profitable in the longrun. Both @ 5/1

x PyRo

ValueSeeker wrote: »

This must be the worst match there is to find value.

To true.

People keep picking the best game, not the best game for value. It's getting quite annoying at this stage.

El Horseboxo

I'll have a look at the markets later but it's not exactly a game that would have stood out to me. Just as Pyro and VSeeker said. Very little value. Are people just voting based on the teams or are they actually going and having a look at the markets? I voted for Newcastle vs Stoke but that was only after having a look at the market and seeing some good bets.

Warper

ValueSeeker wrote: »

This must be the worst match there is to find value.

For once I dont think it is. Chelsea are the best team in the PL and @ 6-5 are a good price and should be backed.

fkiely

El Horseboxo wrote: »

I'll have a look at the markets later but it's not exactly a game that would have stood out to me. Just as Pyro and VSeeker said. Very little value. Are people just voting based on the teams or are they actually going and having a look at the markets? I voted for Newcastle vs Stoke but that was only after having a look at the market and seeing some good bets.

I mentioned this in the last poll and this one. It just seems people are basing their choice on what game sounds good to watch or with the big teams. Bit of a waste if nothing else as it'd be good to have everyone's thoughts on a game where there's some decent value to be had in various markets.

Warper

fkiely wrote: »

I mentioned this in the last poll and this one. It just seems people are basing their choice on what game sounds good to watch or with the big teams. Bit of a waste if nothing else as it'd be good to have everyone's thoughts on a game where there's some decent value to be had in various markets.

No one is stopping you opening up a new thread with whatever match you want.

fkiely

Warper wrote: »

No one is stopping you opening up a new thread with whatever match you want.

The whole point of this exercise was to avoid threads popping up for every match. I still think it's a good idea but just curious as to why people choose what they do, whether it's because they like the sound of the game or they think there is value to be had in it.

El Horseboxo

No one is stopping him but it kinda takes it away from the purpose of having a poll and letting people decide on a game. Also i don't think the mods want individual match threads as there is or will be one covering the EPL.

Also saying Chelsea are the best team in the league doesn't mean anything. Even best teams lose. This is going to be a testing game for them as it's the first time they are playing anyone of a higher level this season. How will they handle the transition and Man City have looked very strong at home. Not the easiest to score against. Also Chelsea were considered the best team in the league last year and lost away to Man City at similar odds.

Anyways i don't care what game gets picked. I'll still have my bets either way but would be nice for a game that offers value in more than the 1x2 market.

Nuri Sahin

fkiely wrote: »

I mentioned this in the last poll and this one. It just seems people are basing their choice on what game sounds good to watch or with the big teams. Bit of a waste if nothing else as it'd be good to have everyone's thoughts on a game where there's some decent value to be had in various markets.

Yep.

As Pyro said, it's quite annoying at this stage. I was really hoping the votes would vary but one match clinically wins which is the most disappointing aspect from my point of view. People will bet one what they know best and unfortunately for many, that's on the Man U's, Chelsea's off this world.

Think I said it before, I can take the big match, ie: the match with the popular team(s) out of the poll and just leave the two so called unfancied matches. See how that goes for a week or two?

Both the other games in this week's poll, having looked at the various markets certainly had good value.

Headshot

I think this will be a chelsea win, they have looked unstoppable so far this season, they may have faced so called easy opposition but they style in which they have beated the opposition is another story altogether

Eire-Dearg

Don't know if I'm allowed post this here, so apologies to the mod team and delete/infract if I'm going against the rules!

Myself and Xavi6's website are running a new weekly comp where you place three free bets each week from a selected game, and the winner gets a free €20 bet from PP (for now, prizes should improve as the weeks/interest goes on).

This week is Chelsea/City - and all details are here http://backpagefootball.com/featured/hold-the-backpage-episode-9/#respond

And you enter here in the comments section http://backpagefootball.com/featured/hold-the-backpage-episode-9/

Defo worth it when there's no money going out of your pocket.

Thanks lads.

El Horseboxo

Sounds good Eire. I know they were trying to promote something like this in the feedback forum a while back to make the forum better and more active. Need to a mod to see if it's a problem. But since it's not in direct competition with this site i don't know why it would. I'll give it a crack anyways after i look at the markets.

Eire-Dearg

Cool, thanks mate.

I thought it was a very clever way of going about things, a point system based on the odds.

The prizes will hopefully improve with time. Early interest should speed that up.

fkiely

Going to go for the draw here today in the early kick off. Both teams have had contrasting fortunes so far this season with Chelsea apparently cruising through their opening fixtures with Mancini already coming under a bit of pressure. It’s a massive test for both side, Chelsea up against one of the better sides in the league for the first time while City up against the side they strive to be. Chelsea really had the upper hand in this fixture, home and away, over the years up until City did the double over them last season. A bit of revenge will be in order from the Chelsea players who’ll be determined not to lose again to City. City drew the second highest amount of games last year and are a very tough team to beat in the City of Manchester. Mancini sets his team out firstly to not lose, and then to go on and try win the game. Against a side like Chelsea, they’ll have to be at their defensive best to keep things acceptable. Can see Chelsea winning and the price on them is very reasonable but I fancy them to drop their first points of the season today.


Draw at 9/4

Nuri Sahin

Ugh. Zab is playing LB and Boyata is RB. No odds on Boyata being booked so the booking bet is out of the question.

Gone with a small bet on Malouda to score and Chelsea to win @ 4/1

Nuri Sahin

Adnan Alves wrote: »

Zabaleta to be booked
*Waiting for odds on this. He looks set to continue at right back and will be up against arguably the best winger in the world at this time in Malouda. A.Cole will also provide a massive threat down that side as well. In general, the player to be booked market most interests me most in this match. Providing the odds are good.

Adnan Alves wrote: »

Ugh. Zab is playing LB and Boyata is RB. No odds on Boyata being booked so the booking bet is out of the question.

Zab was booked :pac:

Adnan Alves wrote: »

Wincast
Man City to win and Tevez anytime @ 5/1
Most likely scenario if City win IMHO

:pac: :pac: