Q.E II 25th Sept.

Goldcupfav

Surely this race has the potential to be the race of the year. Think Makfi could have the beating of CC although Makfi's trainer has stated that the breeders mile is his number 1 target. Very hard to split them though imo.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/flat/queen-elizabeth-ii-stakes

Thoughts or opinions ??

Nulty

Makfi for me. I can't see why there was such a discrepancy in the prices of the top two earlier in the week apart from the possibility that Makfi might not turn up.

It getting annoying that O'Brien declares half his yard for every G1. I suppose its better than Godolphin who spend thousands on supplementing but its a pain for ante post.

Awzaan is very interesting having built on each successive run this year. I'm not sure what Johnsons plans are for him so I would be careful about supporting him but 33/1 looks big after he went off 8/1 for the Guineas.

Beethoven is exposed but did well in the Champion Stakes. He's been beaten too many times by Canford though and would be looking at 3rd at best IMO. Probably best over 9f/10f anyway.

Warper

Ya backed Makfi myself this morning @ 2-1. Can see him going off fav on Sat as there is a lot confidence behind the horse and he beat the best miler in the world last time in Goldikova. Granted the ground was too soft for her but he bolted in and with the weather the way it is, it should be soft enough on Sat too. Hannon's horses are not running as well they were earlier in the season too.

Odds here

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/flat/queen-elizabeth-ii-stakes

UrbanSea

Nulty wrote: »

Awzaan is very interesting having built on each successive run this year. I'm not sure what Johnsons plans are for him so I would be careful about supporting him but 33/1 looks big after he went off 8/1 for the Guineas.
.

Awzaan's best run this season was it's last run,which was over 7. He doesn't get the mile in my opinion,no way.

Nulty

greetings wrote: »

Awzaan's best run this season was it's last run,which was over 7. He doesn't get the mile in my opinion,no way.

Fair point and on reflection your probably right.

RichieLawlor

Canford Cliffs is a motorbike.

Colonel Sanders

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Canford Cliffs is a motorbike.

Must say the burst of speed he showed to beat Rip Van at Goodwood (when it looked for a second that Rip Van had flown) was phenomenal

Although that said had Rip Van not ran in the Irish Champion I'd be all over him each way at 4/1 (Stan James paying 1/4 1,2,3) with a 4lb pull

Nulty

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Canford Cliffs is a motorbike.

With flat tyres...he's out

Canford Cliffs ruled out of Queen Elizabeth II
By Jon Lees 9:14AM 23 SEP 2010

CANFORD CLIFFS was ruled out of Saturday's Queen Elizabeth II Stakes on Thursday morning after scoping unsatisfactorily.

Trainer Richard Hannon said the scope result was "marginal" though not good enough for him to risk the triple Group 1 winner in such an important assignment.

He said on his website: "The scope was marginal, but Canford Cliffs is now such a valuable commodity that you cannot take any chances, so, having listened to veterinary advice from Mike O'Gorman, we have no option but to pull out.

"Everyone in the yard is absolutely gutted, and we realise that it could well cost us the trainers' championship, but the welfare of the horse comes first and you need to be 100 per cent to go into a battle for a Group 1.

"I must stress that the tracheal wash was not terrible, but the reading was disappointing, and, though he'd probably be fine if there was another race coming up in a week or so, the fact is there is nothing left over a mile, just the Foret [October 2] over seven furlongs.

"However, the great thing is that we have him in training for next year - he has done us proud this season, and he'll be back better than ever as a four-year-old."

Canford Cliffs, as short as 5-4 favourite, was said to have worked brilliantly on Wednesday in the lead up to Saturday's clash with 2,000 Guineas winner Makfi. His absence will be a major blow in Hannon's campaign to win the trainers' championship.

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/canford-cliffs-ruled-out-of-saturdays-qeii/770613/top/

Warper

Great news for Makfi backers

HigginsJ

The good news is that Canford Cliffs will be back next year. You imagine so too will be St. Nicholas Abbey. Least its something to look forward to.

UrbanSea

Does that mean there'd be a rule 4 on Makfi or would it still be ante post?

UrbanSea

Just looking at the prices,Beethoven each way at 25/1 is the value of the race I think.

Colonel Sanders

greetings wrote: »

Does that mean there'd be a rule 4 on Makfi or would it still be ante post?

Bets placed before the final decs would not be subject to a R4. Although Canford Cliffs backers will lose their stakes

It's 'day of the race' market now with possible R4's applying

longshotvalue

Beethoven looks the bet of the race still at 20/1 EW, he should be the 3rd best in the race, and i get a sense that there could be a surprise on the cards..

Colonel Sanders

Stan James go 11/10 the jolly

Evens on Betfair

Nulty

I'm totally buzzing about this days racing.

I think they are mad to go evens on Makfi. Not because he's so much better than the others but his overall record makes him very reliable. His form says "If he's not sick, he wins." No matter the opposition - Paco, Canford, Dick T, Goldikova etc...

Makfi all the way

UrbanSea

Ladbrokes are enhancing in shops 11/10.

Colonel Sanders

Nulty wrote: »

I'm totally buzzing about this days racing.

Good jumps card at Navan too. I'll be stuck in front of ATR for the afternoon

2 good maiden hurdles to start off.

First Lieutenant has won a P2P & bumper impressively (and the dogs were barking before his bumper win)

Araucaria looks to have a found a good starting point and over 2m 4 will surely be hard to beat

Good beginners chase too. Sweeps Hill against Realt Dubh & Venalmar. Venalmar is very strong today but after looking a great prospect in novice hurdles it'd take a brave man to back him today after his disappointing form last year

bit of a bogey

Nulty wrote: »

I'm totally buzzing about this days racing.

I think they are mad to go evens on Makfi. Not because he's so much better than the others but his overall record makes him very reliable. His form says "If he's not sick, he wins." No matter the opposition - Paco, Canford, Dick T, Goldikova etc...

Makfi all the way

Todays racing is really great across cards!

I'm very suprised how confident everyone I talk to is about Makfi. The rip will go off at possibly his best ever value. 11/4 at the moment and he may well drift if the money comes for Makfi.

I just dont think Makfi has the value people are talking about and is not certain to finish ahead of RVW. Rip is probally a true 1m 1f horse but a mile with a strong gallop at ascot is going to suit. I think he is at peak condition around this point in the season any may be physically a stronger horse that Makfi.

I just wouldnt be putting the house on anything in the QE2 but I'd edge towards Rip. Then again it could be egg on face!:)

Colonel Sanders

Might have been a weak enough Royal Lodge but Frankel looks a monster

Trafford Lad

Frankel there was very impressive...jesus!! wasnt on at those odds but that was great to see.

Going with Beethoven EW in the big race later.

Nulty

bit of a bogey wrote: »

Todays racing is really great across cards!

I'm very suprised how confident everyone I talk to is about Makfi. The rip will go off at possibly his best ever value. 11/4 at the moment and he may well drift if the money comes for Makfi.

I just dont think Makfi has the value people are talking about and is not certain to finish ahead of RVW. Rip is probally a true 1m 1f horse but a mile with a strong gallop at ascot is going to suit. I think he is at peak condition around this point in the season any may be physically a stronger horse that Makfi.

I just wouldnt be putting the house on anything in the QE2 but I'd edge towards Rip. Then again it could be egg on face!:)

I have Makfi @ 5/2 AP. Explains my exaltation

bit of a bogey

Nulty wrote: »

I have Makfi @ 5/2 AP. Explains my exaltation

Fair enuf!
That prices does change things!

Colonel Sanders

Strange ride there from Ruby on Araucaria

Some of the winnings will have to be spent on new under wear!

My only bet of the day

bit of a bogey

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Strange ride there from Ruby on Araucaria

Great judge of pace from Ruby once again! Glad to hear you were on!

Colonel Sanders

Rip Van touched 4.2 on Betfair

Favourite seems very strong

Colonel Sanders

I'd a small bet on Rip Van at 4.3. Price is just a little big

Money for Poet's Voice now

Colonel Sanders

Really good support for Poet's Voice now

Colonel Sanders

6/5 Makfi

x PyRo

That race just proves that Canford is by far and away the best miler around, as I always thought. Makfi is overrated in my opinion.

Colonel Sanders

x PyRo wrote: »

That race just proves that Canford is by far and away the best miler around

Probably

He was 13/8 when he was confirmed a non runner and I was itching to have a good cut if he was that kind of price on the day

At least he'll be back next year too

Nulty

I know its ridiculous to make excuses time and again for horses but Makfi is a very good horse. He can beat anything on his day.

He has major question marks now though.

1) soft ground? - Won Guineas on GF
2) Ascot? - Both defeats have come there
3) right handed? - Happens to be Ascot that both runs have come at
4) Left handed? - Never tried it
5) Straight track? - Unbeaten
6) France? - Unbeaten
7) Breeders Cup? - I'm on


Approach with caution!

Colonel Sanders

Nulty wrote: »

I know its ridiculous to make excuses time and again for horses but Makfi is a very good horse. He can beat anything on his day.

He has major question marks now though.

1) soft ground? - Won Guineas on GF
2) Ascot? - Both defeats have come there
3) right handed? - Happens to be Ascot that both runs have come at
4) Left handed? - Never tried it
5) Straight track? - Unbeaten
6) France? - Unbeaten
7) Breeders Cup? - I'm on


Approach with caution!

I'm not knocking Makfi, I think hes obviously a solid Group 1 horse

Its just that the turn of foot Canford Cliffs showed at Goodwood to beat Rip Van was electric

HigginsJ

Fair play to Frankie and Poets Voice.

I'd just like to say what a star Rip Van Winkle is. Dont know how many more times we will see him but, considering all the foot problems we are told he has had, he is some horse.

A nose shy of being the only horse to win back to back QEII's.
The closest anyone got to Sea the Stars.
Won Group 1's over a mile and mile and a quarter.

Nulty

Well most of the time we look for patterns in this sport. It gives us a basis of trying to predict what will happen in the future (obviously).

There is a serious pattern developing with Makfi. Cannot be backed on a turn, at least on a right handed turn, at least on a right handed turn at Ascot. How general can that presumption be made? Is it just turns? Does he lose interest after a turn?

PS
It's another Dettori/Bookie bloodbath! (Rainfall)

Nulty

HigginsJ wrote: »

Fair play to Frankie and Poets Voice.

I'd just like to say what a star Rip Van Winkle is. Dont know how many more times we will see him but, considering all the foot problems we are told he has had, he is some horse.

A nose shy of being the only horse to win back to back QEII's.
The closest anyone got to Sea the Stars.
Won Group 1's over a mile and mile and a quarter.

I heard he would have bee the 3rd to win back-to-backs

HigginsJ

Nulty wrote: »

I heard he would have bee the 3rd to win back-to-backs

sorry thought they said it on BEEB.

UrbanSea

Nulty wrote: »

I heard he would have bee the 3rd to win back-to-backs

HigginsJ wrote: »

sorry thought they said it on BEEB.

Rose Bowl and Brigadier Gerard won them back to back,he would have been the third in 40 years to do it.

UrbanSea

x PyRo wrote: »

That race just proves that Canford is by far and away the best miler around, as I always thought. Makfi is overrated in my opinion.

Proves to me that Makfi can't handle Ascot,Nulty made a good point there. For all we know he could come out of the race bad. We can't forget Makfi did win the Guineas and beat Goldikova,I don't think Canford Cliffs is as good as Goldikova.

Hawk Wing 2

HigginsJ wrote: »

I'd just like to say what a star Rip Van Winkle is. Dont know how many more times we will see him but, considering all the foot problems we are told he has had, he is some horse.

.

How do you make that out? talented but another O'Brien talking horse, full of wind and piss

Nulty

DELZANGLES OFFERS MAKFI EXCUSE

By Keith Hamer, Press Association Sport

Mikel Delzangles is resigned to putting down Makfi's poor performance in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes to a dislike of Ascot.

The French-trained colt could only finish fifth behind Poet's Voice in the Group One over a mile to suffer the second defeat of his career.

The only other blot on his copybook came in the St James's Palace Stakes at the Royal meeting when he was found to have a throat infection.

In contrast, his four victories include the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket and the Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville where he defeated Goldikova and Paco Boy.

"He's OK. We didn't find anything wrong with him. The jockey never felt well on him during the whole race. I think he doesn't like Ascot," said Delzangles.

"The horse was nervous and he never travelled well. The jockey never felt happy any time in the race that he was well.

"It was very disappointing but can't see anything other than he didn't like the track.

"He has had two defeats at Ascot while everywhere else he has been great. Last time he had a throat infection and maybe he remembered it. That could be an explanation."

The Breeders' Cup Mile had been Makfi's main objective and connections will see how the horse in the next 10 days before deciding whether to still aim for Churchill Downs in early November.

"We will discuss that in the next 10 days. We will see how he recovers from the race and how he is," Delzangles added.

Source - Sporting Life

Its about all he could say. Either he's right or its a pretty glaring coincidence.

hucklebuck

I am so annoyed by RVW, I get it wrong everytime :mad: I figured Makfi looked a beatable favourite and thought Poets Voice had too much to find to beat RVW.

I could not have Makfi yesterday given his previous run at Ascot, I am a very firm believer of horses for courses and if a horse has a bad run at a track and he scopes ok then it's just a track he doesn't fancy.

As for the back to back QE2 comments, fairly short sighted as all the best horses now get sent to stud once they have a good bit of black type so are retired before they get a chance to defend their title.

UrbanSea

hucklebuck wrote: »

As for the back to back QE2 comments, fairly short sighted as all the best horses now get sent to stud once they have a good bit of black type so are retired before they get a chance to defend their title.

Ya,most of the very best are,the race has seen some below average winners though aswell I think. Raven's Pass has to be the best in recent years.

Goldcupfav

Just noticed skybet are going 10/1 for Makfi for the Breeders Mile. Surely worth a punt at that price considering the trainer has stated before the QEII that the breeders mile was the main target this season .

http://www.attheraces.com/article.aspx?hlid=511515&raceid=&title=Delzangles+offers+Makfi+excuse&lid=pa+racing+feed&ref=PA+Racing+Feed&nav=news&sub=&day=Mon

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/breeders-cup/breeders-cup-mile

hucklebuck

Goldcupfav wrote: »

Just noticed skybet are going 10/1 for Makfi for the Breeders Mile. Surely worth a punt at that price considering the trainer has stated before the QEII that the breeders mile was the main target this season .

http://www.attheraces.com/article.aspx?hlid=511515&raceid=&title=Delzangles+offers+Makfi+excuse&lid=pa+racing+feed&ref=PA+Racing+Feed&nav=news&sub=&day=Mon

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/breeders-cup/breeders-cup-mile

I will certainly be backing him at those odds

Nulty

I'd wait until the trainer confirms that they plan to travel over...although by that time his price may contract. I got a free bet that needed using by Saturday, I couldn't find a bet so I put it on Makfi for the BC Mile @ 4/1. Bollox now but if I'm in for a pound I'm in for an extra penny at those prices. It would be stupid not to press up after having a reasonably sized bet on him at less than half the price.