Philcan's Betting Log

Philcan

Starting this log in the hope that it will keep me a bit more disciplined. No more silly, chancey type bets.


Selections will mainly be from weekend racing as I don't have too much time to spare mid week.

Using 5 pt rating system to give indication of strenth of fancy.

And so......


Beverly 4:00 Tamarillo Grove 2 pts Win @ 9/2 (Bet365)


Won a 6 horse maiden in very good style last month. The 2nd that day has subsequently come 2nd again. Race prior to the win was in a handicap where he finished 5th of 7. Doesn't look great form but it was on unfavoured soft ground and was only 4l off the winner – not a disgraceful effort.


Looking at some of the earler form, the stand out effort was 2nd of 12 in a Nottingham maiden. The favourite that day finished 4th but subsequently won a handicap off a mark of 75. If Tamarillo can match that it should be good enough to go close here.


Most of the others in this race have run more than my selection and don't look to be as open to improvement.

coughlan08

its nice to see people starting a log,
it will only make you disciplined if you be 100% honest with yourself,
try and restrain yourself from doin that sneaky bet,which you think has a chance,,be sure of every bet you do or at least make sure your getting value in it,,,if you do there is no reason why you shouldnt see profit...

best of luck
coughlan

Philcan

Philcan wrote: »

Beverly 4:00 Tamarillo Grove 2 pts Win @ 9/2 (Bet365)

Unplaced. Had every chance but just not good enough.

Staked: 2pts
P/L: -2pts

Philcan

Goodwood 15:10 Hand Painted 1pt e/w @ 12/1 (Wiliam Hill)


Hand Painted ran a stinker last time out earlier this month but if that race can be forgiven he has a chance here. In the race before that he was a beaten favourite finishing 41/2 lengths off the winner and 1 l off Starwatch who finished 3rd. In a later race Starwatch finished 3rd to Humidor (the likely favourite in this race) and through this line of form Hand Painted is now weighted to run Humidor close.
In July at Epsom he was 4th of 7, just over 2 lengths off the winner. The first 3 in this race all went on to win subsequently.


He won 3 times and was placed twice last year, all over 6 and 7 furlongs.
Seb Sanders has the ride today.

At 12/1 he just looks overpriced.

Philcan

Philcan wrote: »

Goodwood 15:10 Hand Painted 1pt e/w @ 12/1 (Wiliam Hill)

Finished 2nd. Went off at a starting price of 13/2. +1.16 pts profit (after a Rule 4 deduction).

Staked: 4pts
P/L: -.84pts

Philcan

Pontefact 15:30 Di Stefano 1pt e/w @ 11/1 (William Hill)


Di Stefano won a class 5 over 5f in June of last year. After this he was placed twice in class 1 type races both over 5f. The other placed horses in these races have gone on to perform well in much better races than this.


Since those races he has been running over 6f in class 2, 3 and recently 4 races without much joy.
His best run this year was probably in June at this racecourse over 6f when he finished 4th of 9. The first 3 all went on to win subsequently. This race hints that he retains the ability he showed last year. This is his first race for David Nicholls having recently left Mick Channon's yard.


Dropped to a class 5 race, back to 5f and with a new trainer, 11/1 might be generous although this race looks fairly competitive.

Philcan

Philcan wrote: »

Pontefact 15:30 Di Stefano 1pt e/w @ 11/1 (William Hill)

Unplaced. Finished 4th but no chance with with the first 3.

Staked: 6pts
Profit/Loss: -2.84

Philcan

Ascot 15:10 Yer Woman 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Bet 365)


Yer Woman has raced against several of these in the past and is now better off in the weights against them to the extent that she might have a sporting chance at nice odds. At Goodwood in August she finished 3rd to Alice Alleyne and Gouray Girl beaten 2l. She is now 4lbs and 3lbs better off respectively. At Newmarket in July she was a head behind Joe Packet and is now 5lbs better off. She was also 3 lengths behind Kanaf back in May at Newmarket and is now a stone better off.


Richard Hughes is back onboard her for this race. He was the jockey for 2 of her 4 wins.

Nulty

Philcan wrote: »

Ascot 15:10 Yer Woman 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Bet 365)

Good shout, I'm tempted to go in myself. Doesn't look like she'll want it firm from the form figures and out of a Barathea mare.

Welcome to Boards and good luck with the selections.

Nulty

Out to 33/1. Looks ominous

Philcan

Nulty wrote: »

Out to 33/1. Looks ominous

Ominous wasn't the word. Terrible effort.

Philcan wrote: »

Ascot 15:10 Yer Woman 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Bet 365)

Unplaced. All but last in fact.

Staked: 8pts
Profit/Loss: -4.84

Philcan

Haydock 14:35 Sunny Game 2pts e/w @ 11/2 (William Hill)

Sunny Game's last race was over 1m 3f at Chester last May where he finished 3rd. What catches the eye looking at that race is that he was full of running at the end suggesting that he will love the step up to 1m 6f.
He is receiving almost 2 stone from the fav. Kansai Spirit, a huge amount of weight and almost a stone from the others bar Herculean.
There is no evidence of how he will handle the likely softish ground but breeding suggests that this will be ok. He has only raced 3 times so is possibly open to further improvement.

Philcan

Haydock 4:55 Arrivederla .5pts e/w @ 10/1 (Bet365)

With doubts over so many of these handling the soft going, I'm going with Arrivederla who has won on soft ground and at Haydock. That was in 2009. 2010 has been poor so far but there was a sign he was coming back to form with a 3rd place on his 2nd last race.
He is Dunlops only runner today.

Philcan

Haydock 15:10 Brae Hill .5pts e/w @ 25/1 (Stan James)

Finished 3rd of 21 at Doncaster over 6f on soft ground. Has shown form this season with a win and a place. All his runs this year have been over 7f or further so it is interesting to see him dropped back to 6f for this.
Also well drawn. 25s looks a very big price.

Philcan

Philcan wrote: »

Haydock 14:35 Sunny Game 2pts e/w @ 11/2 (William Hill)

Philcan wrote: »

Haydock 4:55 Arrivederla .5pts e/w @ 10/1 (Bet365)

Philcan wrote: »

Haydock 15:10 Brae Hill .5pts e/w @ 25/1 (Stan James)

All unplaced. Disasterous run continues. I have a feeling a winner is close though.

Staked: 14pts
Profit/Loss: -10.84

Philcan

Musselburgh 17:10 Fourth Generation 2pts win @ 8/1 (Totesport)

Has only raced the 5 times (1 win and 3 2nds). The win came at Carlisle over 1m 1f winning in good style by 5 lengths from Opening Nite who went on to win at Ayr.
Next race was he was upped in trip to 1m 4f and finished 2nd. This race is over 1m 6f. Interesting to see that he has been nibbled at this morning.

Philcan

Curragh 15:50 Good Time Sue .5pts e/w @33/1 (Paddy Power)

Rank outside who loves soft ground. Others don't. Could sneak a place.

Philcan

Clonmel 14:35 Blue Ridge Lane 1pt win @ 19.5 (Betfair)

Has won on flat For Dermot Weld and has been building up hurdling experience over the summer. This doesn't look that competitive a maiden.