Autumn outlook

nacho libre

Taken from TheWeatherOutlook

We've issued our autumn 2010 weather outlook and the headline is for a windier and colder autumn than many we've had in recent years. Things are likely to start off with a dry and quiet spell of weather, but we're expecting things to go downhill as we go through September, with often cool and wet conditions developing during October and November. Some very stormy weather is likely and at times in northern parts we expect the risk of snow. The snow risk is particularly likely later on in November when it may push further south for a time.

Sounds good to me. We are overdue a wind storm at this stage!

Lumi

nacho libre wrote: »

Dry and quiet spell of weather ...
Some very stormy weather ....
Risk of snow ....!

A perfect autumn scenario - something to please everyone

Su Campu

nacho libre wrote: »

Taken from TheWeatherOutlook

We've issued our autumn 2010 weather outlook and the headline is for a windier and colder autumn than many we've had in recent years. Things are likely to start off with a dry and quiet spell of weather, but we're expecting things to go downhill as we go through September, with often cool and wet conditions developing during October and November. Some very stormy weather is likely and at times in northern parts we expect the risk of snow. The snow risk is particularly likely later on in November when it may push further south for a time.

No shít, Sherlock!! :pac: I've no time for these long range forecasts when they don't include their reasoning in them. Without explaining why they think there'll be snow in late November (apart from the statistically higher probability!), then the forecast could be seen as nothing more than guesswork.

nacho libre

Fionagus wrote: »

A perfect autumn senario - something to please everyone

haha. a good observation on the other thread:D

nacho libre

Su Campu wrote: »

Without explaining why they think there'll be snow in late November (apart from the statistically higher probability!), then the forecast could be seen as nothing more than guesswork.

A valid point Su Campu. perhaps ours is not to know . However, according to paddy1, they have a good record as regards their seasonal forecasts

maquiladora

nacho libre wrote: »

Taken from TheWeatherOutlook

We've issued our autumn 2010 weather outlook and the headline is for a windier and colder autumn than many we've had in recent years. Things are likely to start off with a dry and quiet spell of weather, but we're expecting things to go downhill as we go through September, with often cool and wet conditions developing during October and November. Some very stormy weather is likely and at times in northern parts we expect the risk of snow. The snow risk is particularly likely later on in November when it may push further south for a time.

Sounds good to me. We are overdue a wind storm at this stage!

I remember the GFS teasing us last year with some great windstorms in FI that never happened. Maybe this year will be different.

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

A valid point Su Campu. perhaps ours is not to know . However, according to paddy1, they have a good record as regards their seasonal forecasts

Which I based on their Summer 2009 and winter 2009/2010 forecast. They were near the mark overall for both these seasons for the UK. I have no idea what they forecast for summer or spring 2010 though!

I wonder though will their Autumn forecast 2010 be as accurate overall? They are predicting a cool September, I personally can't see this happening. Even up to the 14th, UK met office Hadley centre is showing a 1.4c positive anomaly for the first 14 days of the month:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

although I accept the the CET temp may not be all that representative for the UK as a whole, it does give a fair idea.

Just to add that our own 'IMT' anomaly for the same period is actually higher so far!

I am not sure but I think TWO might get their long range predictions from Joe Bastardi. Both their long range forecasts always seem to be aligned anyway!

Anyway, I am hoping they will be right, despite long range forecasts being nothing more than fun reading. Nothing like a wild autumn!

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Anyway, I am hoping they will be right, despite long range forecasts being nothing more than fun reading. Nothing like a wild autumn!

Yes it's fun to speculate what will happen long term. I was posting their(?) forecast on that basis.
I put more stock in the BBC monthly outlook for an accurate assessment of what going to happen in the weeks ahead. They do get it wrong sometimes but overall they are fairly accurate

Pangea

A polar bear just knocked on my door and asked for a cup of sugar, I think hes gona be my new neighbour...
Its gona be one cold autumn

Danno

Whoa, no mention of an Indian Summer... I think we are due a sunny warm spell before October is out... time will tell.

Lumi

Deep Easterly wrote: »

They are predicting a cool September, I personally can't see this happening. Even up to the 14th, UK met office Hadley centre is showing a 1.4c positive anomaly for the first 14 days of the month:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

although I accept the the CET temp may not be all that representative for the UK as a whole, it does give a fair idea.

Just to add that our own 'IMT' anomaly for the same period is actually higher so far!

The European temperature predictions for Sept-Oct-Nov issued by the IRI for Climate and society broadly concur with your observance so far of higher than average autumnal temperatures





They also predict below average precipitation for the same period.
See here for Discussion - Scroll down for Irish data.

Lot's of other info available on the site for those who are interested

pauldry

Thanks for that but I prefer things to get to the point and generally look at all the weather websites and draw your own conclusions without depending on what one or other of these websites say. At least thats what I tend to do and it serves me well most of the time. But true its only a bit of fun forecasting the seasons but forecasts for one month ahead can be made a bit more accurately than they could be in the past though not as accurate as we would like. For example when the Atlantic is fairly quiet like in August, the monthly forecast was a fairly straght forward one but in July with all the thunder and rain all we could predict was for a wet month which of course we were going to get right. However if someone said to you in May to predict the season I think the best thing is to use your own judgement and say in my opinion I think it wil be dry for the first while....etc