If there was an election in a month which cabinet members would lose their seats?

Brussels Sprout

Brian Cowen Taoiseach Laois-Offaly
Mary Coughlan Tánaiste Education & Skills Donegal South-West
Brian Lenihan Minister for Finance Dublin West
Mary Harney Health Minister Dublin Mid-West
John Gormley Environment Heritage and Local Gov. Dublin South East
Noel Dempsey Transport minister Meath West
Dermot Ahern Justice minister Louth
Micheál Martin Foreign minister Cork South Central
Mary Hanafin Tourism, culture and sports Dun laoghaire
Éamonn Ó Cuiv Social Protection Galway West
Pat Carey Community, Equality and Gaeltacht Affairs Dublin North West
Tony Killeen Defence minister Clare
Éamonn Ryan Communications, Energy and Natural Resources minister Dublin South
Brendan Smith Agriculture, Fisheries and Food Cavan-Monaghan
Batt O Keeffe Enterprise, Trade & Innovation minister Cork North West


I'm sure we all have particular ministers from the list above who we'd love to see out on their ear. However, all politics are local and this is especially so in Ireland. So, although most of the country thinks that Mary Coughlan is incompetent, she's probably well respected in her own constituency and will have no problem being re-elected.
In previous elections a lot of these would have topped the poll whereas now they may have to settle for 3rd or 4th but I find it very hard to see them losing their seats.
The only obvious ones for me are the two Green Party ministers as they had to battle to get elected last time around and would have lost huge support due to their actions in government.

REPSOC1916

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Brian Cowen Taoiseach Laois-Offaly

Safe

Mary Coughlan Tánaiste Education & Skills Donegal South-West

The Ms Palin of the 26 counties will retain her fathers seat.

Brian Lenihan Minister for Finance Dublin West

I doubt he'll run. If his health get's better then he's ok.

Mary Harney Health Minister Dublin Mid-West

She and Curran will lose out.

John Gormley Environment Heritage and Local Gov. Dublin South East

Dead on arrival

Noel Dempsey Transport minister Meath West

I'd say Brady'll lose out rather than him. Wouldnt mind seeing him out as he's a right sneak.

Dermot Ahern Justice minister Louth

Seamus Kirk is CC so if they run him on his own and don't bring try to brink in a running mate than he should be ok.

Micheál Martin Foreign minister Cork South Central

Safe

Mary Hanafin Tourism, culture and sports Dun laoghaire

I thought she might be safe herself but a local poll put her at 7% in Dun Laoghaire compared to 9% for Andrews. I know constituency polls can be dodgy as hell but it's interesting.

Éamonn Ó Cuiv Social Protection Galway West

He gets a huge vote from connemara that won't change despite the recession. If anything it'll go up even further given FG's appointment as Gaeltacht affairs spokesperson. He's safe.

Pat Carey Community, Equality and Gaeltacht Affairs Dublin North West

Gone. FF had disasterous locals there and Labour and SF are really mopping up the working class FF vote.

Tony Killeen Defence minister Clare

Safe. The man's a perfect gent if I say so.

Éamonn Ryan Communications, Energy and Natural Resources minister Dublin South

Gone.

Brendan Smith Agriculture, Fisheries and Food Cavan-Monaghan

50:50 him or Margaret Conlon

Batt O Keeffe Enterprise, Trade & Innovation minister Cork North West

Geography is a big factor against him in Cork north west (he was formerly in Cork South Central) and with the swing against FF he'll lose out.

Princess Consuela Bananahammock

Probably none of them apart from the Greens. I'd imagine they're all very well known locallly and have the constituency buttered up.

REPSOC1916

Ikky Poo2 wrote: »

Probably none of them apart from the Greens. I'd imagine they're all very well known locallly and have the constituency buttered up.

In certain cases that true but FF are going to get a hammering and certainly in the Dublin constituencies no-one is safe even if you are a cabinet minister.

irishh_bob

REPSOC1916 wrote: »

Safe


The Ms Palin of the 26 counties will retain her fathers seat.


I doubt he'll run. If his health get's better then he's ok.


She and Curran will lose out.


Dead on arrival



I'd say Brady'll lose out rather than him. Wouldnt mind seeing him out as he's a right sneak.


Seamus Kirk is CC so if they run him on his own and don't bring try to brink in a running mate than he should be ok.


Safe


I thought she might be safe herself but a local poll put her at 7% in Dun Laoghaire compared to 9% for Andrews. I know constituency polls can be dodgy as hell but it's interesting.


He gets a huge vote from connemara that won't change despite the recession. If anything it'll go up even further given FG's appointment as Gaeltacht affairs spokesperson. He's safe.


Gone. FF had disasterous locals there and Labour and SF are really mopping up the working class FF vote.


Safe. The man's a perfect gent if I say so.


Gone.


50:50 him or Margaret Conlon



Geography is a big factor against him in Cork north west (he was formerly in Cork South Central) and with the swing against FF he'll lose out.

agree with most of your predictions , a year ago or even six months ago i would have said brendan smith was a gonner but agriculture ( my brothers a farmer ) has seen quite a turnaround in the past six months in every sector ( especially cereals and dairy ) so that should rub off on him , on merit the guy should certainly loose his seat

Stinicker

Most of the backbenchers will get slaughtered, which is an actual pity as it is the front benchers that should go. I'd love for Brian Cowen to lose his own seat, that would be sweet karma. No pity to see the end of the Green Party, what a bunch of douchbags they are.

RATM

I'd love to see Noel Dempsey out on his ear. He is just downright incompetent, everything he touches just seems to fall apart. And then he defends it with his smarmy interviews.

evenmicheal

Gormley is certain to be gone, he barely gets in at the best of times.

richardsheil

I was at a non political event on Saturday in Gormley's constituency.

Each time the MC thanked a person for attending there was a round of applause.

When he thanked John Gormley for attending- there was complete silence.

Thank god for that.

I wanted to push him into the Dodder as he was standing right beside it but unfortunately I bottled it.

hotmail.com

I heard reports that Micheal Martin's seat was in danger and because of this, he's unlikely to succeed Cowen as leader of FF.

Mary Hanafin or Barry Andrews will lose a seat in Dun Laoighre (it's moving from a 5 seater to a 4 seater to make matters worse) - probably Andrews, I can imagine a major bitching contest there between the two as we get closer to an election.

Mary Harney will probably announce she won't contest the next election for fear of the humiliation - she was lucky to get in the last time.

All of the Green ministers (junior ones included) will lose their seats. Sargeant might be the lone Green next time around.

The rest are all safe in my view. It'll be interesting to see if any of them retire at the next election (apart from Lenihan). O'Keefe must be in his 60s and he's the new blood apparently.

Onthe3rdDay

Batt O Keeffe would be very unlikely to get back in even if things were going well. The constituency works against him in it's current form. It's always more likely to return 2FG to start out with.

Michael Moynihan has a solid base in Northern half and should bring home the single FF seat.

It's an election that being a Minster puts you at a great disadvantage.

hotmail.com

I looked it up, Batt is 65. He'll be 67 in May 2012. Maybe he won't bother contesting.

imme

Lenihan on dodgy ground, prob safe though

Hanafin dodgy, gone

Gormley, dodgy, prob just hang on

Carey, dodgy, definitely gone

Ryan, safe, such a deliberately low profile and no G Lee to worry about, unless George makes a comeback:P
If Gormley gone, Ryan will lead what's left of the Greens, prob himself and Gogarty, prob Trevor as well

Smith & O'Keeffe, prob safe but their own consituency colleagues will be their worry

mikemac

Harney won't run again
That was rumoured/announced a long time ago

All the others are safe except Gormley and O'Keefe

I wouldn't have thought Lenihan would run but I don't know any latest annoucments or what his plans are.
I realy though he would stand down next election for health reasons. Spend time with his family

bijapos

I think the ones who will go are Carey and Gormley and if they run Harney and O'Keefe.

I think most people underestimate the "aura" around having a minister in your constituency in rural areas. They are rarely ever rejected at election. Most of them did quite well last time out and should be safe. The only other dodgy one is Hanafin, there is only one place in DL for FF but she is far more high profile than Andrews.

ednwireland

not enough of em

our mary (coughlan ) should be out on her face but it just wont happen - you should see them fawning over her when she appears (the usual responseits because she's a woman you know, no its cos she's cr*p at her job):rolleyes:

edit

actually the only hope i have is she didnt top the poll last time but the lack of alternative canidates hampers her getiing kicked out