Hurricane JULIA

maquiladora

Soon to be a named storm :

Su Campu

It's affecting Cape Verde this evening, with some moderate but gusty winds and lowering visibility in rain and drizzle being reported at two of the airports.

GVBA 121900Z 02013KT 9000 BKN014 BKN080 27/25 Q1008 NOSIG
GVNP 122200Z 02020G30KT 5000 RA SCT016 OVC100 26/25 Q1006 NOSIG
GVAC 122200Z 03015G27KT 7000 -DZ SCT013 BKN015 BKN100 27/25 Q1009 NOSIG

The 30hr TAFs call for moderate winds and a chance of moderate to heavy thunderstorms

GVBA 121600Z 1218/1324 10016KT 9999 SCT014 BKN090 TEMPO 1218/1302 07012KT 5000 RA BKN014 OVC080
TEMPO 1305/1315 12020KT 3000 +RA SCT013 BKN015 OVC080
PROB40 TEMPO 1306/1312 13014G24KT 2000 +TSRA BKN014 SCT015CB OVC080


GVNP 122200Z 1300/1406 04018G28KT 8000 RA BKN014 BKN020TCU
TEMPO 1300/1306 05020KT 5000 TSRA SCT018TCU OVC090
PROB40 TEMPO 1306/1312 16020G32KT 3000 +TSRA BKN018TCU SCT024CB OVC090


GVAC 122200Z 1300/1406 14018KT 8000 SCT015 BKN020
TEMPO 1300/1306 05015KT 6000 -RADZ SCT013 BKN016 OVC090
PROB40 TEMPO 1306/1312 14018G28KT 5000 TSRA SCT013 BKN018TCU FEW022CB

maquiladora

Now Tropical Storm Julia.

Su Campu

It's been bringing heavy rain and thunderstorms to the islands, with the strongest winds with gale gusts being reported at Praia (in the south of the archipelago)

Praia
GVNP 130700Z 12025G36KT 9999 SCT015CB BKN020 OVC100 25/25 Q1005 NOSIG
GVNP 130600Z 10027G36KT 5000 TSRA SCT015CB BKN020 OVC100 25/25 Q1004 NOSIG
[FONT=Monospace,Courier]GVNP 130300Z 08026KT 9999 FEW015 BKN020 OVC100 25/25 Q1005 NOSIG[/FONT]
[FONT=Monospace,Courier]GVNP 130200Z 08024KT 9999 SCT015 BKN020 OVC100 26/26 Q1005 NOSIG[/FONT]
[FONT=Monospace,Courier]GVNP 130100Z 04016KT 9999 FEW003 BKN020 OVC100 25/25 Q1006 NOSIG[/FONT]
[FONT=Monospace,Courier]GVNP 130000Z 06022G31KT 8000 RA FEW003CB BKN020 OVC100 25/25 Q1007 NOSIG[/FONT]
[FONT=Monospace,Courier]GVNP 122300Z 02026G35KT 3500 RA FEW017 OVC100 26/25 Q1007 NOSIG[/FONT]
[FONT=Monospace,Courier]GVNP 122200Z 02020G30KT 5000 RA SCT016 OVC100 26/25 Q1006 NOSIG[/FONT]

Sal
GVAC 130700Z 10021KT 8KO SCT014TCU BKN016 BKN100 26/24 Q1008 RETS NOSIG
GVAC 130600Z 10014KT 7KM TS SCT013 BKN017 SCT//CB OVC100 25/24 Q1008 ECLAIR SECTEUR O NOSIG
GVAC NIL
GVAC 130400Z 07017KT 2000M TSRA FEW010 BKN017 SCT///CB BKN100 24/24 Q1007 NOSIG
GVAC 130330Z 10020KT 500M +TSRA FEW010 BKN017 SCT///CB OVC100 27/25 Q1008 NOSIG
GVAC 130300Z 06013KT 7000 +TS FEW013 BKN017 SCT///CB 27/25 Q1008 NOSIG
GVAC 130200Z 06017KT 6000 SCT013 BKN016 27/25 Q1009 REST NOSIG
GVAC 130100Z 05017KT 6000 SCT013 BKN016 FEW/// CB 27/25 Q1009 ECLAIR SECTEUR SE NOSIG
GVAC 130000Z 04016KT 7000 SCT013 BKN016 27/25 Q1009 NOSIG
GVAC 122300Z 04019KT 7000 SCT013 SCT016 BKN100 27/25 Q1009 NOSIG
GVAC 122200Z 03015G27KT 7000 -DZ SCT013 BKN015 BKN100 27/25 Q1009 NOSIG
GVAC 122100Z 03016KT 7000 SCT013 BKN016 OVC100 27/25 Q1009 NOSIG

dexter647

now julia..

maquiladora

...JULIA BECOMES A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE FIFTH OF THE 2010 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...

5:00 AM AST Tue Sep 14
Location: 16.1°N 29.0°W
Max sustained: 75 mph
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 987 mb

TheMilkyPirate

Satellite loop with igor and julia just behind.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-vis.html

Su Campu

Julia has taking everyone by surprise, including all the models, and strengthened considerably during the night and is now a Cat 4.

000
WTNT42 KNHC 150859
TCDAT2
HURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
500 AM AST WED SEP 15 2010

A RAPID STRENGTHENING EPISODE WAS NOTED A FEW HOURS AGO. THIS WAS
MOSTLY UNEXPECTED...AND REMINDS US OF OUR LIMITED UNDERSTANDING OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE. JULIA IS STILL STRENGTHENING...
BUT AT A SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER RATE THAN WAS OBSERVED LAST EVENING
AND EARLIER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE EYE HAS NOT WARMED
MUCH...THE CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE EYE HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 115
KT...AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL WIND SPEED FOR THIS ADVISORY...
MAKING JULIA A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. JULIA COULD STRENGTHEN A
LITTLE MORE TODAY AS IT REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER AND IN A
MODERATE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND 12 TO 24 HOURS AS JULIA
MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND THEN INTO STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE IGOR. THE NHC OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND IS ABOVE ALL OF THE MODELS FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS AS
NONE OF THE GUIDANCE ANTICIPATED THE OBSERVED STRENGTHENING OF
JULIA.

THE HURRICANE HAS NOW TURNED TO THE NORTHWEST...WITH A 12-HOUR
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 305/9. A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS JULIA NEARS A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...A TURN
BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AS THE
HURRICANE IS STEERED BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A STRENGTHENING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. JULIA IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TURN
NORTHWARD AND POSSIBLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND IS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
NEW GUIDANCE SUITE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0900Z 17.3N 31.8W 115 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 18.6N 33.2W 120 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 20.4N 35.9W 120 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 22.2N 39.3W 105 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 23.4N 42.6W 95 KT
72HR VT 18/0600Z 26.3N 48.1W 80 KT
96HR VT 19/0600Z 30.0N 50.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 20/0600Z 34.0N 49.5W 50 KT

gbee

Looking at the tracks for the sudden burst from Julia and the massive Igor it made me think of ships at sea, the Queen Mary II left NY two days ago for Southampton.

Last seen doing 22-knots she'll probably outrun both these monster storms, currently she has a 1,000 nautical mile separation [estimated as I don't know her exact position].

She seems to have calm seas according to her webcam

http://www.cunard.co.uk/Ships/Queen-Mary-2/Bridge-Web-Cam/

Might be worth keeping an eye on.

M.T. Cranium

Julia seems to be an early recurver which often means the remnants end up near Ireland. There seems little chance of Julia passing 50 W at any point now, so she recurves into the warm waters north of the Azores then probably gets picked up by the same wave that captures Igor, which may go well north, but with a strong front extending towards Julia at that point. Something to watch for, anyway. Igor seems likely to brush Newfoundland in about a week.

Su Campu

Unbelieveable, but after over a week of drifting back and forth, and almost sputtering to a stop, Julia seems to be regaining strength again this evening about 1000 miles east of Bermuda. There is some very symmetric and deep convection taking place again as it moves westwards over ocean temperatures of 28-29°C. It's in an area of very little windshear, so I reckon the NHC will start reissuing advisories on her before the night is out.

Even if they do though it looks like she will get picked up by the southwesterlies from the large trough over the eastern US, so it's unlikely to affect land (apart from possibly Bermuda). It could though be a factor for us later in the week, maybe injecting a bit more moisture into the westerlies.

Here's the satellite loop

Mayo Exile

10% chance according to the latest NHC advisory.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
OBSERVATIONS FROM A NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION JET AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE LOW DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN
CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. CONSULT
STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AND
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

2. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAVE BECOME LESS ORGANIZED TODAY...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
JULIA...IS LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND IS
MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI
NNNN

Su Campu

The latest ASCAT pass has winds around 25kts on its northern side. A bit more development and they may call it a Tropical Depression again.