Serendipity in history

Liberalbrehon

I'm quite interested in serendipity in history for example, how the wet weather prevented the ottoman army carrying their heavier canons all the way to Vienna, which gave the defenders a huge bonus in being able to defend the city.

Or how if Castro got picked for a baseball team, if more people bought Hitler's art, etc

What other stories do you have of the little things making a big difference to events in history?

Morlar

If engels had not met marx the world would be very different that sort of thing ?

I think you could to this to infinity, it sounds like a very generalised 'What If-ery' and I am not sure how useful that is.

Liberalbrehon

More like what quirky event lead Marx and Engels to meeting? probably not very useful but interesting in a trivial pursuit kind of way. Sure there is no end to it but just wondering if people know of any interesting twists and turns that lead to outcomes. History is the biography of people but also the quirky events outside of peoples control that lead them to different paths. Not so much what ifs but the detail of why?
Might be a short thread if people don't get it :-)

Judgement Day

Two obvious ones come to mind, the bad weather that decimated the Spanish Armada in 1588, and the bad weather that once again protected Britain by preventing the planned German invasion in 1940 - "Operation Sealion". We could all be speaking Spanish or German today, take your pick.

Judgement Day

There's an interesting book titled "Weather and Warfare: A Climatic History of the 1798 Rebellion" by John Tyrrell which shows how the unusually good weather of May/June 1798 was a major factor in the early successes of the rebel armies. Although the whole rebellion ultimately ended in failure bad weather would have hindered their progress, although it might also have prevented reinforcements arriving from Britain....what if .....

Liberalbrehon

Judgement Day wrote: »

Two obvious ones come to mind, the bad weather that decimated the Spanish Armada in 1588, and the bad weather that once again protected Britain by preventing the planned German invasion in 1940 - "Operation Sealion". We could all be speaking Spanish or German today, take your pick.

I thought it was the failure of the luftwaffe in the battle of britain that stopped the land invasion?
Also I didn't know the weather was that significant in Armada, until after they tried to get away?

Judgement Day

Liberalbrehon wrote: »

I thought it was the failure of the luftwaffe in the battle of britain that stopped the land invasion?
Also I didn't know the weather was that significant in Armada, until after they tried to get away?

Obviously the RAF would have had to have been decimated for a successful seaborne invasion. The lack of coordination between the different branches of the German military (plus Hitler) and the switching from bombing airfields to bombing London had already largely undermined the plan but barges had been gathered for the invasion and the weather did play a role in finally scuppering the plans. A small entry from wikipedia here:

---

During the period 19–26 September 1940, sea and wind conditions on and over the Channel where the invasion was set to take place were good overall and a crossing (even using converted river barges) was feasible provided the sea state remained at less than 4 (which, for the most part, it did). Beginning the night of 27 September, strong northerly winds prevailed, making passage more hazardous, but calm conditions returned on 11–12 October and again on 16–20 October. After 20 October, light easterly winds prevailed which would have actually assisted any invasion craft traveling from the Continent towards the invasion beaches. But by the end of October, according to British Air Ministry records, very strong southwest winds (force 8) would have prohibited any non-seagoing craft from risking a Channel crossing.[29]

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As for the Spanish Armada, I accept that most of the damage was done after the fleet were forced to flee north via Scotland but again the weather had had an impact early on in the engagements. I can't find a link right now but will post when I find something.

Fratton Fred

Judgement Day wrote: »

As for the Spanish Armada, I accept that most of the damage was done after the fleet were forced to flee north via Scotland but again the weather had had an impact early on in the engagements. I can't find a link right now but will post when I find something.

You're not thinking of Sir francis Drake finishing his game of Bowls on Plymouth Hoe even though the Armada was sighted are you?

Legend has it that he finished his game, quite relaxed, knowing full well that there was nothing the English fleet could do, having the tide and wind against them.

If the Spanish had attacked then, rather than heading for the Isle of Wight, they could have destroyed the English fleet at anchor.

There is also the favourable wind the English had at Gravelines, which allowed them to use fire ships and scatter the Armada.

Not so sure about the German invasion though. It was planned, but i don't think they ever amassed the troops required for an invasion, so even though the weather was not favourable, they probably wouldn't have gone ahead anyway.

Judgement Day

One of the things I love about the Boards is the way that it sends one off in a tangent looking for information, and finding things that you had never heard of before. This thread led me to stumble across this 1965 movie "It Happened Here" - apparently something of a classic according to the reviews I found, despite being made by teenagers with zero budget. Take a look at the trailer below and despite its strange style it is quite chilling. The movie is available on DVD through the usual suspects - Amazon/Play.com and eBay.
Also on the same subject I came across an excellent looking book titled "If Britain had Fallen" by Norman Longmate which is also available online.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xwr28mQZL5Y

Wikipedia link here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/It_Happened_Here

Liberalbrehon

worth starting the thread for that, thanks judgement

then there is Fatherland which was quite successful
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fatherland_%28novel%29

pablomakaveli

The guy who sold the cannon design to the Turks offered it first to the Byzantines but they could'nt afford it. Had they bought it they might have defeated the Turks and the Ottoman empire would have never come into being.

The death of Kublai Khan resulted in the Mongols who had invaded europe withdrawing as custom dictatedthat they had to return to Mongolia something which might have saved europe from being overrun.

During the American war of independence a british soldier encountered some americans on horseback. He took aim at one of them but since he considered it un-gentlemanly to shoot a man in the back he did'nt shoot. The man he aimed at was General George Washington.


I read a book called "What If?" by Robert Crowley which deals with questions like this.

Judgement Day

Taking the 'what if' scenario a bit further it often occurs to me when researching the 1798 rebellion, one of my pet interests, what if there had been mobile phones back then? The outcome could have been very different with better communications between the different rebel contingents. A more general outbreak of hostilities on the same date might well have overwhelmed the Crown forces and we could all be speaking French today.
On a different tack, mobile phones being about at the time of the Titantic's sinking might well have led to the S.S. Californian (the ship that apparently ignored the distress flares) steaming to the rescue in time to save most if not all of Titanic's passengers and crew. It took the Titanic two hours and forty minutes to sink and the Californian was estimated to be about ten miles away when the flares were first fired.

Liberalbrehon

Is using modern technology taking the what if to far? If the Irish had mobile phones so would the British forces have had. The thing is the '78 rebellion was doomed from the start. You cannot overthrow a foreign power through unorganised farmers with Pikes. You need a trained army or miltia forces around the country with a common goal. A few hundred farmers with pikes was a pointless exercise. It would never have succeeded. The closest there was to a chance was the army of Red Hugh O'Donnell but it wasn't to be. Only till Collins perfected the guerilla and intelligence lead war did it have a chance because the establishment was being attacked rather than poor conscripts in a field.

Judgement Day

Liberalbrehon wrote: »

Is using modern technology taking the what if to far? If the Irish had mobile phones so would the British forces have had. The thing is the '78 rebellion was doomed from the start. You cannot overthrow a foreign power through unorganised farmers with Pikes. You need a trained army or miltia forces around the country with a common goal. A few hundred farmers with pikes was a pointless exercise. It would never have succeeded. The closest there was to a chance was the army of Red Hugh O'Donnell but it wasn't to be. Only till Collins perfected the guerilla and intelligence lead war did it have a chance because the establishment was being attacked rather than poor conscripts in a field.

It may well be pushing the boundaries out a bit too far but the 1798 rebellion was about far more than a few hundred poorly armed pikemen. During the course of the rebellion many thousands of rebels took to the field but all at different times whereas a well co-ordinated rising would have overwhelmed the Crown forces and if the French had arrived in June instead of August events might have taken a very different turn. If the Wexford rebels had pressed on with their push towards Dublin on the 5th of June instead of waiting until the 9th by which time the Crown forces had regrouped and had got well dug in at Arklow....if the communications between the New Ross rebels and those in Enniscorthy/Arklow had been better...If the communications between the New Ross rebels and those in Kilkenny had been better the Crown forces in New Ross could have been trapped at New Ross bridge. Admittedly the Crown forces would also have had mobile phones but this would have had minimal effect as they were still hampered by having less men on the ground.

However, while it is interesting to speculate on what might have happened if, the fact remains that technology mocks previous endeavours.

Liberalbrehon

ok, let's say that they did manage to do all that and the French arrived. So the British force was beaten. how long do you think it would have taken the British forces to plan a rather large invasion force coming from the North and from East coast invasion to re-take Dublin. There's also the large civilian landlord force that would have resisted. I'd say if they held on for a year they would have been lucky. The British would have launched a huge overwhelming force and would have devastated the native population even worse than they did. They were probably lucky they didn't succeed as the long-term consequences would have been much worse. The Brits just lost the Americas, they would not have allowed Ireland to break free. It just never could have happened at that point in time.

Judgement Day

I do agree with you that Britain would never have willingly let Ireland break free in 1798, especially after the American debacle, but a lot would have depended on how the French commitment shaped up. What if Nelson had been defeated by the French at the Battle of the Nile on the 1st/2nd August 1798 instead of the other way round?

Fratton Fred

Judgement Day wrote: »

I do agree with you that Britain would never have willingly let Ireland break free in 1798, especially after the American debacle, but a lot would have depended on how the French commitment shaped up. What if Nelson had been defeated by the French at the Battle of the Nile on the 1st/2nd August 1798 instead of the other way round?

France would have invaded Ireland and in six months, the Irish would have been begging the British to come back.

Liberalbrehon

I agree, I don't think the French were liberators as such, Napolean on the rise? They would have been an occupying force that would require food from natives for the army. Sooner or later they would have taken it rather than the Irish giving it to them. Then they are an occupying force.

Fratton Fred

On 24th August 1940, during a bombing raid in Essex, the luftwaffe accidentally bombed London. In revenge, Churchill ordered the bombing of Berlin. Hitler was horrified and ordered the luftwaffe to stop bombing airbases and concentrate on London.

This is probably the biggest turning point in the battle of Britain and something that kept Britain in the war.

Judgement Day

Funny, yet again, while checking on some facts about the Battle of Britain to reply to Fratton Fred I stumbled over another bizarre piece of history; an incident in September 1940 involving the downing of a German plane led to the last military action against foreign forces on the British mainland and the first such incident in nearly 300 years. Have a read of this, amusing now seen from a safe distance but probably wasn't so damn funny if somebody was shooting at you with a machine gun.

http://www.kentonline.co.uk/kentonline/news/2009/september/30/battle_of_graveney.aspx

Forgotten frontline exhibition tells how Luftwaffe fought with soldiers on Kent marshes

by Ron Green and Mark Harrison

The Luftwaffe bomber was in trouble. It had dropped its 4,000lb cargo of bombs over London and was heading home. As it flew over Kent it was hit by anti-aircraft fire from a gun emplacement beside the Medway at Upnor.

Then pursuing Spitfires and Hurricanes pounced – but for once they didn’t seek to blow the enemy plane from the sky. The pilots from 66 and 92 squadrons recognised that this was no ordinary Junkers bomber. Earlier an order had gone out to all units to capture one like it, intact.

The bomber pilot, Fritz Ruhlandt, was given no choice but to attempt a forced landing on the Kent marshes. On the ground, soldiers from the 1st London Irish Rifles billeted at the Sportsman Inn on Graveney Marshes between Faversham and Seasalter heard the crippled bomber as it plunged towards them.

Under-offizier Ruhlandt, despite being wounded, brought down his plane a few hundred yards from the pub. He and his injured crew members crawled from the wreckage. A dozen or so soldiers in the pub grabbed their rifles and rushed towards the scene.

And so, on September 27, 1940, the scene was set for an historic encounter of the Second World War.

The Luftwaffe crew had armed themselves with two machine guns and a sub-machine gun and opened fire. The soldiers returned fire but were forced to take cover under a hail of bullets.

It was the only battle of the Second World War on the British mainland and the incident was thought to be the first in nearly 300 years in which armed invaders had fought with troops on English soil. The dtramatic incident is featured in The Forgotten Frontline, an exhibition at Whitstable Museum illustrating how the Kent coast was affected by the war seven decades ago.

The Irish rifles re-grouped and crept along a dyke towards the Germans. When they were about 100 yards away one of the airmen waved a white flag but as the soldiers closed in fighting erupted again before the Germans were over-powered.

The drama didn’t end with the surrender of the aircrew. Like many Nazi planes, the Junkers 88 was fitted with time-bombs to prevent it falling into enemy hands.

The soldiers had discovered and removed just such a device. Unknown to the prisoners, one of the soldiers could speak German and he heard the fliers talking about a second time-bomb due to go off at any moment.

Captain Cantopher from the Irish Rifles courageously rushed back to the plane, found the second device and defused it in the nick of time. By doing so he helped the war effort – for the Junkers 88 was only two weeks old and was fitted with a secret and extremely accurate new bombsight.

The outcome

Captain Cantopher received the George Medal for his bravery. The Junkers 88 was taken to RAF Farnborough for examination and was said to have provided highly valuable information.

The Luftwaffe air crew went to prisoner-of-war camps. The riflemen were mentioned in dispatches for tactical ability which enabled them to force the surrender of the heavily-armed Luftwaffe crew. Unofficially, however, it is said the riflemen had their knuckles rapped for opening fire without being ordered to do so.

Historic note

The Battle of Graveney Marsh has the distinction of being the last exchange of shots on mainland Britain by a foreign invading force. The encounter was believed to be the first confrontation with an enemy on British soil since the French landed at Fishguard in 1797, although on that occasion not a shot was fired.

Fratton Fred

Judgement Day wrote: »

The Battle of Graveney Marsh has the distinction of being the last exchange of shots on mainland Britain by a foreign invading force. The encounter was believed to be the first confrontation with an enemy on British soil since the French landed at Fishguard in 1797, although on that occasion not a shot was fired.

Another piece of good fortune for the British army.

If a Portugese merchant ship hadn't been grounded off Fishguard a few weeks earlier, there wouldn't have been vast amounts of sherry waiting for the french to get legless on.

The truth varies from the legend, but basically the drunk French soldiers mistook the local women's traditional tall black hats for Grenadier Guards and surrendered without firing a shot.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Fishguard

The Highwayman

If Dermot MacMurrough had fought his own battles?

Judgement Day

What if it had been William Duke of Normandy who fell at the Battle of Hastings rather than King Harold II - wither then the 800+ years of oppression? Then again, I suppose it would have been an Anglo-Saxon regime of oppression instead of a Norman one - perfidious Albion!

Fratton Fred

The Highwayman wrote: »

If Dermot MacMurrough had fought his own battles?

I think there are lots of incidents like that in Irish history.

What if the 1916 leaders hadn't issued their proclamation using the phrase "Their Gallant Allies in Europe". Would they have still been executed? if not, would the war of independance had teh support it ended up with?

What if the Irish confederates hadn't signed an agreement with the Englsih Royalists? would Cromwell have invaded (Probably not)?

What if the Earls hadn't fled? or if they hadn't changed sides too many times?

What if Charles Stewart Parnell had not met kitty O'Shea?

Liberalbrehon

Here's one I found on the web. In the 30's of the last century, reports arrived in the US that the German lufwaffe had a "secret" to be able to let their pilots fly easily up to 12.000 meters (or 35.000 feet) altitude with their aircrafts. The "secret" that according to rumors let pilots of the German luftwaffe fly up to 12.000 meters (or 35.000 feet) altitude with their aircrafts, was the eating of imported cowkidneys from Argentina.
Of course, when the US Air Force heard of these rumors in the late 1930's they themselves started experimenting with kidneys and researching this organ. The result of this research was the discovery of the adrenal cortex hormones and cortisone - the hormone that elevates blood pressure and prepares the body for the fight or flight response...

Liberalbrehon

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/revealed-how-an-irish-soldier-saved-hitlers-life-2286637.html

You probably saw that in the indo recently but there is also this story
The First World War was in its last hours, millions of soldiers on both sides were dead and those who fought on knew the end was near, as did English Private Henry Tandey who served with the Duke of Wellington's Regiment.
In September of 1918, on the French battlefield of Marcoing, he won the Victoria Cross for bravery, one of many medals the 27 year old would win during the 'war to end all wars.' As the battle of Marcoing raged, Allied and German forces engaged in bitter hand to hand combat. The defining moment for Private Tandey and world history came when a wounded German limped directly into his line of fire.
"I took aim but couldn't shoot a wounded man," said Tandey, "so I let him go." Years later he discovered he had spared an Austrian Corporal named Adolf Hitler.
Hitler himself never forgot that pivotal moment or the man who had spared him. On becoming German Chancellor in 1933, he ordered his staff to track down Tandey's service records. They also managed to obtain a print ofan Italian painting showing Tandey carrying a wounded Allied soldier on his back, which Hitler hung with pride on the wall at his mountain top retreat at Berchtesgaden. He showed the print to British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain during his historic visit in 1938 and explained its special significance.
The Führer seized that occasion to have his personal gratitude relayed to Tandey, which Chamberlain conveyed via telephone on his return to London from that most fateful trip.
Henry Tandey left military service before the start of World War II and worked as a security guard in Coventry. His "good deed" haunted him for the rest of his life, especially as Nazi bombers destroyed Coventry in 1940 and London burned day and night during the Blitz.
"If only I had known what he would turn out to be. When I saw all the people, woman and children, he had killed and wounded I was sorry to God I let him go," he said before his death in 1977 at age 86.

Judgement Day

Excellent stories Liberalbrehon - I had not come across either of them. Shows how even the old chipper wrapper occasionally has something worthwhile in it.

pablomakaveli

Liberalbrehon wrote: »

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/revealed-how-an-irish-soldier-saved-hitlers-life-2286637.html

You probably saw that in the indo recently but there is also this story
The First World War was in its last hours, millions of soldiers on both sides were dead and those who fought on knew the end was near, as did English Private Henry Tandey who served with the Duke of Wellington's Regiment.
In September of 1918, on the French battlefield of Marcoing, he won the Victoria Cross for bravery, one of many medals the 27 year old would win during the 'war to end all wars.' As the battle of Marcoing raged, Allied and German forces engaged in bitter hand to hand combat. The defining moment for Private Tandey and world history came when a wounded German limped directly into his line of fire.
"I took aim but couldn't shoot a wounded man," said Tandey, "so I let him go." Years later he discovered he had spared an Austrian Corporal named Adolf Hitler.
Hitler himself never forgot that pivotal moment or the man who had spared him. On becoming German Chancellor in 1933, he ordered his staff to track down Tandey's service records. They also managed to obtain a print ofan Italian painting showing Tandey carrying a wounded Allied soldier on his back, which Hitler hung with pride on the wall at his mountain top retreat at Berchtesgaden. He showed the print to British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain during his historic visit in 1938 and explained its special significance.
The Führer seized that occasion to have his personal gratitude relayed to Tandey, which Chamberlain conveyed via telephone on his return to London from that most fateful trip.
Henry Tandey left military service before the start of World War II and worked as a security guard in Coventry. His "good deed" haunted him for the rest of his life, especially as Nazi bombers destroyed Coventry in 1940 and London burned day and night during the Blitz.
"If only I had known what he would turn out to be. When I saw all the people, woman and children, he had killed and wounded I was sorry to God I let him go," he said before his death in 1977 at age 86.

There was a story in the papers a few weeks ago of an Irishman who saved Hitler from a mob of people who attacked him during his early days in the National Socialists.

Liberalbrehon

yeap that was the link in the indo, looks like hitler had a few close shaves with death, not counting the bomb in the bunker. It would nearly make you believe in fate! but not quite!

Liberalbrehon

Jilted in 1846 by shipping clerk George Cuthbertson, 21 year old Eliza Emily Donnithorne was condemned to a life more suiting a bat than a pretty heiress of aristocratic birth.
Probably driven away by her overbearing father, Cuthbertson would die in India during the Sepoy rebellion in 1858, while his fiancée in Sydney waited anxiously for his return.
Suffering a nervous breakdown due to her abandonment, Eliza insisted the wedding feast be left untouched on the long dining room table in the grand mansion, Camperdown Lodge, ready for festivities and ceremonies to commence once the absent groom arrived.
Her orders were complied with by her father, retired Judge James Donnithorne, over concern for her state of mind. Those concerns were amplified by Eliza's refusal to wear anything except her wedding dress as she whiled away the days waiting for her groom. Unknown to all, Eliza was in the early stages of pregnancy.
To avoid further scandal, her newborn baby was spirited away by the Judge who arranged for its adoption while falsely telling his daughter of its death. This blow, coupled with the subsequent death of her father, sent the pretty young woman over the edge.
After her father's funeral, all but two servants were dismissed. The imposing estate would be sealed off from the world for the next 40 years. Windows and shutters were permanently closed, drapes drawn, and the house was blanketed in total darkness. Expensive European paintings and furnishings were gradually blanketed in the dust of decades, falling to ruin anonymously while weeds and overgrowth consumed the outside of the once stately house.
A generation of neighbors were born, lived and died, believing the house to be abandoned. Oblivious to the passage of time, Eliza grew old. Her wedding dress decayed and hung off her withering body as she drifted like a ghost through the dusty ruins of her world.
She refused to leave the grounds or see anyone except her lawyer and minister, who described rotting chairs collapsing under them as the mistress of the house held court, sitting solemnly in her discolored wedding dress while candles cast eerie shadows on the walls. Merciful death finally arrived in 1886 when Eliza died of heart disease, a fitting end for a woman who suffered so long from a broken heart.
A generous woman, her donations helped build the local church where she was buried, while the bulk of her considerable estate was left to charities and her trusty servants.
It is believed novelist Charles Dickens heard of her abandonment and subsequent reclusion through one of his sons and based the character Miss Havisham in his novel Great Expectations on her.

Judgement Day

Yet again I arrive here by accident. This time as I searched for Toulon (France) newspapers online to find coverage of the Jonny Wilkinson's rugby performance yesterday and instead find a link to the scuttling of the French fleet at Toulon in 1942. Interesting in itself but I had forgotten that it happened in Toulon and had it mixed up in my mind with the Royal Navy's attack on the French fleet in North Africa.

This latter event "Operation Catapult" took place in July 1940 and this well made You Tube video explains the background to the attack and has many pictures of the destruction which resulted in the deaths of 1,297 French naval personel.

Some historians argue that the largely airbrushed from history "Operation Catapult" was as important as the RAF's Battle of Britain in saving the UK from German invasion. Some more fascinating info here including comments from participants: http://www.open2.net/historyandthearts/history/one_transcript_page.html

The 'what if' part of this is quite simply what if Winston Churchill hadn't had the balls to see it through? Love him or loathe him he had the courage of his convictions and I can't think of many world leaders that come anywhere remotely near him. Anyway all that because of Jonny Wilkinson.

Lastly for those interested there's a 1979 French made movie "Mers El-Kebir" see here: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0366769/ and I'm off to find a copy.