Civil Service

Denerick

When will the embargo end, do you think? (I'm imagining it will be at least 5 years minimum) Anyone have any inside knowledge? I know temp workers are recruited occasionally and there are exceptions.

datura

Five years? Seems a bit much given some current shortages... though maybe not if there is serious redeployment of existing civil servants.

DEPRESSING for those hoping to join/get promoted!

James esq

I don't know, my best guess is next year as Bruton will have to supply 10's of 1000's of jobs before the next election. A reasonable cost efficient way to do this is for large scale early retirement in the public sector, replacing the retirees with new entrants. It becomes cost effective if new employee costs plus the pension costs of the older workers minus the welfare costs of the otherwise unemployed new entrants is less than the present costs of the older workers eg €25k (new entrant salary) + €25k (pension of old worker)- €5k(social welfare costs of orthewise unemployed new entrant < €50k (present pay of older worker). This worked before.

The_Conductor

James esq wrote: »

I don't know, my best guess is next year as Bruton will have to supply 10's of 1000's of jobs before the next election. A reasonable cost efficient way to do this is for large scale early retirement in the public sector, replacing the retirees with new entrants. It becomes cost effective if new employee costs plus the pension costs of the older workers minus the welfare costs of the otherwise unemployed new entrants is less than the present costs of the older workers eg €25k (new entrant salary) + €25k (pension of old worker)- €5k(social welfare costs of orthewise unemployed new entrant < €50k (present pay of older worker). This worked before.

First off- there is a recruitment drive ongoing.
It is on the new payscales- which are lower than the scales recent retirees have been on.
It is limited in nature- and reflective of the aging of the various workforces (for example the average age in the civil service is now in the 50s). Its on a limited replacement policy- that is 1 in 6 replacements- and targeted at specific agencies (such as Peoplepoint for example- who are going to get a good influx of new permanent staff imminently).
Thirdly- its not necessarily more cost effective- as a lot of staffing has been done by contract staff, temporary staff and job bridge scheme participants- any of whom are cheaper than fulltime staff. Fulltime staff will be replacing these temporary staff.

Stated policy- is to outsource any non-essential functions- and bring down public sector numbers. Many areas of the public sector are at historically low staffing levels- and as they are seen to be 'coping'- its not anticipated that they will be given further resources.

The last time the public sector was used as a soak pit to absorb excess unemployed workers- was in the 1980s. It was not a success. At the moment our unemployment rate is falling back towards the EU average- and its anticipated it'll continue to fall- so there is no great imperative to try and manipulate the market- such as there was in the 80's.

So- there is recruitment happening. Its limited in nature. Its not necessarily cheaper. Its not sufficient to cover natural attrition. It is tending to be at the lowest levels- such as the current CO competition (and the imminent EO competition). They have their pick of well qualified workers- are offering comparatively poor salaries- and are displacing people on work-bridge and other type schemes (and TCOs etc).

Not exactly ideal- but at least moving in the right direction..........

James esq

Great analysis, but what is your answer to the question ? Is your thesis that a one in six replacement rate is not an embargo and everything is fine ? If there is a promise to produce 100,000 jobs then there is an imperative to manipulate the market, a full on attempt to manipulate the market by government will at best deliver 10,000 jobs via the public sector, in the absence of an industrial development policy we will forever remain a peripheral region of Europe, empoyment rising and falling in sync with the rest of Europe. Do not expect European fortunes to deliver 100,000 jobs before the max end of the life of this government Feb 2016 - 17 months.

The_Conductor

People seem to imagine we have a lot bigger a civil service than we actually have- in fact its less than 30,000- of whom almost 2/3 are employed in locations other than Dublin (despite the perception of the failure of the most recent decentralisation programme- its only the latest programme- they've been ongoing since the mid 70s).

A 'career' in the civil service is 40 years service. So- the natural rate of attrition in the civil service- all grades- is less than a thousand a year.

However- we've allowed the civil service to age- where it now has a far older age profile- with an average age approaching 50. Retirements are being tapered by those who don't have their 40 year service- and the increase in the retirement age- though many of the current incumbents can retire from age 60 onwards (albeit on an actuarially reduced pension)

So- over the next decade- from the civil service perspective- there could potentially be recruitment of up to perhaps 20k staff.

The rest of the public sector (a significant portion of which is the HSE)- is a different kettle of fish. It has perhaps 115,000 staff- of whom Sean McGrath, their head of Human Resources- acknowledges a massive skills mismatch- with thousands of surplus managers and administrators, alongside a massive shortage of junior doctors, nurses assistants etc. Some professions such as nursing- have moved significantly into administrative roles- necessitating the outsourcing of nursing duties to agency staff and 'assistants' who now do most of the traditional nursing roles.

Its a mess of an organisation- where one arm doesn't appear to know what another arm does.

It has a much younger age profile than the civil service- but could still potentially have 25-30k jobs over the next decade. If they can be shoehorned into specific areas (junior doctors, nurses assistants etc- and away from all managerial, administrative and support roles)- it could result in a streamlined organisation that is actually capable of performing its functions.

Outside of this- you have the rest of the public sector- the Gardai, teachers and everyone else- perhaps another 250,000 staff. These too, have aged- with an average profile now in the 50s. Its forseeable that within 10 years the bulk of these will be replaced. This is happening piecemeal- e.g. 100 Gardai are currently being trained to keep numbers at 13,000- but its entirely forseeable that the through natural attrition the force is dropping over 500 per annum. So- there could be another 25-30k jobs per annum in the public sector- not necessarily new jobs- as a lot of these posts are currently being filled on short-term contracts- which while more expensive upfront- do not have pension costs and longer term costs associatd with them.

So- all told- you could have a recruitment of in the region of 30k to the public sector for the immediate 10-15 years- delivering perhaps 7-8,000 new jobs, the rest being bringing contract staff into the formal structure.

The HSE- the largest employer in the public sector- is central to this scheme- even the civil service in comparison, is a bit player- having less than a quarter the staff numbers of the HSE. If the HSE can be reformed and brought to bear- it could have a transformative role in the Irish public sector.

James esq

I have never experienced anything wrong with the HSE, always found it very efficient in terms of my local hospitals St James and Crumlin and local HSE kids dental services. Don't know how anyone can call it a mess.

The_Conductor

James esq wrote: »

I have never experienced anything wrong with the HSE, always found it very efficient in terms of my local hospitals St James and Crumlin and local HSE kids dental services. Don't know how anyone can call it a mess.

Its running at almost 600 million over budget, and by the admission of its own head of Human Resources (Barry O'Brien)- has significant numbers of excess administrative staff and managers, and a deficit of frontline junior doctors, nurses and consultants. The HSE themselves- admit they have serious isssues.

Of the two hospitals you have named- both are cheerfully spending far in excess of their allocated budget- in the expectation that they will simply be bailed out.

The level of over expenditure in the HSE is actually greater than the total amount the government hope to save by repaying the IMF debt early, and refinancing it with Irish T bonds. Its actually on this scale- quite remarkable......

Just because you have a good experience- as a patient- in a hospital (and I'm glad you did)- does not mean the hospital is well run.

I'm not trying to scare you- but look up the cleanliness reports on Crumlin and St. James- it makes scary reading- Crumlin especially......

James esq

I can only speak about my own experience. I have had a look at the World Health Organisation's most recent ranking of health systems, Ireland is in the top 20.

I realize people are bombarded by misleading headlines everyday eg "Owl wan left on trolley for 69 hours" (nothing wrong with the owl wan, but the hospital is bound by confidentiality so it can't say that, and the papers know this so the cycle of misinformation continues). Then everyone thinks they are entitled to malign an adequate system, it is great fun to have a rant, that is what boards is all about, but don't forget that we live in one of the best run countries in the world.

The_Conductor

You're talking about patient experiences.
I'm talking about finances- and the complete inability of the HSE to operate within budget.

If you want a personal experience- I was personally admitted to A&E in St. Vincents- with a complete blockage of the small intestine. I was left on a trolley outside the kitchen for 3 days- because of lack of bed space (they had closed another ward, as they were having budgetary problems.

I personally managed to organise a transfer to another hospital- where I underwent a resection.

Thats a personal experience too.

Some people have good experiences- others, not so good experiences.

We know the HSE is a remarkable organisation- delivering front line services that inevitably every single person in the country will need to use at some stage.

Most of their staff are highly competent, well motivated, and deliver an excellent service to the public.

However- and by their own admission- there are thousands of surplus administrators, managers and other staff- thousands- many of whose tenure dates back to the old health boards- whose functions became obsolete when the HSE was founded- however, who never moved elsewhere.

Many of these posts (14,000 it was originally stated by politicians) were supposed to move to the civil service and other areas of the public sector- and backfill critical vacancies- however- the staff refused to move, as their terms and conditions would be diminished were they to move elsewhere. Of those who did leave (including a number of CWOs- who were integrated into the civil service at HEO level)- fewer than 1 in 4 remained in their new posts after 2 years (in all fairness to the CWOs- they wouldn't have had the experience of managing staff as a HEO would have had).

The current budget over spend in the HSE is approaching 600 million (for 2014 alone). This is in excess of the amount of money the government were proposing to disburse via tax cuts at the forthcoming budget. Aka- the HSE overspend is in excess of any additional money the government thought it had to hand back to hard-pressed taxpayers.

The HSE is a monster- insofar as it is a financial black hole- it doesn't matter how much money you give it- it consistently overspends- and despite it being a national organisation- with over 30 national directors- it doesn't appear to have a cohesive national strategy- instead it panders to parochial politics, and does not supply its scarce resources in the best possible manner.

The HSE admit this themselves- and historically have done so- however- their budget (of over 13 billion) is never enough- as the constituent hospitals of the HSE- operate as independent entities- and the frivilous spending of one, is not offset by the frugalities of another. In short- they cannot budget- and are answerable to no-one- they have thousands of excess staff who don't perform functions- while simultaneously a massive deficit of junior doctors and consultants........ Its shambles- and unfit for purpose.

James esq

The minister was sacked for setting an unrealistic budget. If you want to go down the budget and efficiency route, you can easily put society values to one side, abort as much disability as possible, put the elderly and terminally ill down once they are no longer productive, then we would have a very efficient service.

starlit

I think the recruitment embargo has been lifted as of from the summer. There is a campaign at the moment for full CO's. They have the temp CO campaign each year but whether or not they will keep going with that I don't know. I was told it was to be lifted after 3 years but unfortunately it has taken 5 years! Some people need to be replaced or those that are retiring or transfering to other offices.

The_Conductor

They always have TCOs- its tends to be to provide cover for those on 'term time' (no longer called term time of course) or those on maternity leave. COs are well over 80% female, and the CO grade makes up almost 68% of the civil service. TCOs are becoming less necessary- with the permanent CO competition- and the manner in which numerous functions traditionally undertaken by COs have been outsourced to the private sector.

James esq

Not to gloat but I got this one right.

The next stage is to give early retirement to the civil service over 50's who are now earning €50k - they get a pension of €25k new recruit gets €25k, cost neutral when you don't have to pay dole to new recruit and and old people get to spend their lumps sums creating new jobs and paying off mortgages. This is known as a no brainer in Rathgar, Blackrock and Terenure, daddy retires and son gets his job, as for the blebs who gives a ....

James esq wrote: »

I don't know, my best guess is next year as Bruton will have to supply 10's of 1000's of jobs before the next election. A reasonable cost efficient way to do this is for large scale early retirement in the public sector, replacing the retirees with new entrants. It becomes cost effective if new employee costs plus the pension costs of the older workers minus the welfare costs of the otherwise unemployed new entrants is less than the present costs of the older workers eg €25k (new entrant salary) + €25k (pension of old worker)- €5k(social welfare costs of orthewise unemployed new entrant < €50k (present pay of older worker). This worked before.

The_Conductor

James esq wrote: »

Not to gloat but I got this one right.

The next stage is to give early retirement to the civil service over 50's who are now earning €50k - they get a pension of €25k new recruit gets €25k, cost neutral when you don't have to pay dole to new recruit and and old people get to spend their lumps sums creating new jobs and paying off mortgages. This is known as a no brainer in Rathgar, Blackrock and Terenure, daddy retires and son gets his job, as for the blebs who gives a ....

Was there an early retirement scheme announced?
Can you provide a link?

ezra_pound

James esq wrote: »

Not to gloat but I got this one right.

The next stage is to give early retirement to the civil service over 50's who are now earning €50k - they get a pension of €25k new recruit gets €25k, cost neutral when you don't have to pay dole to new recruit and and old people get to spend their lumps sums creating new jobs and paying off mortgages. This is known as a no brainer in Rathgar, Blackrock and Terenure, daddy retires and son gets his job, as for the blebs who gives a ....

No you didn't get it right at all.

James esq

You will have to explain or is this a Punch and Judy argument ?

ezra_pound wrote: »

No you didn't get it right at all.

The_Conductor

James esq wrote: »

You will have to explain or is this a Punch and Judy argument ?

James- please provide some documentary evidence of what you're asserting.
You are the one who is claiming to be justified and vindicated in your earlier post where you suggested some manner of an early retirement scheme was in the offing.

Please provide us with some links where we can read up on the scheme you're talking about.

If such a scheme is mooted- and the terms are any way non-discriminatory- there will be a rush to the door...........

James esq

James esq wrote: »

I don't know, my best guess is next year as ...

Above is the documentary evidence where I predicted the end of embargo next year.

The remainder of my prediction will come to pass in about 8 months, when the government starts looking for the money to pay for the ending of the embargo announced in Tuesday's budget.

The_Conductor

James esq wrote: »

Above is the documentary evidence where I predicted the end of embargo next year.

The remainder of my prediction will come to pass in about 8 months, when the government starts looking for the money to pay for the ending of the embargo announced in Tuesday's budget.

Sorry. Can you please provide a link to what you're suggesting.
There were already recruitment campaigns ongoing in September- which I pointed out to you at the time. You keep alluding to some wonderful scheme to retire off pre-existing civil servants and replace them with new starts on half the salary. You're being incredibly evasive when I or anyone else asks for you to reference this.

There is no part of your 'prediction' that wasn't already underway, and the part of your 'prediction', that you're being challenged on, the incentivised retirement scheme, is pure and utter hearsay, and given the scheme which finally ended this year, and the media uproar over participants being brought back as consultants, its almost certainly not going to feature.

If you have some information, I am once again asking you to provide a reference for the rest of us to evaluate.

James esq

there are a few ways of predicting things

one is looking where it is written or urled

the other is is looking at what has happened over the last few decades looking at the patterns and having a degree in the plasma y obvious.


I go for the latter, I am not saying that you are wrong looking for evidence it is a good way to go about things, but in reality the minister doesn'tknow what he is going to say 24 hours before the speech.... things don't get on urls very quickly so it is best to try and develop your skills in the plasma y obvious and you will not be accused of quoting the indo.

The_Conductor

We're not talking about predictions.
You said you have evidence.
We asked you to show us.

relax carry on

James esq wrote: »

Not to gloat but I got this one right.

The next stage is to give early retirement to the civil service over 50's who are now earning €50k - they get a pension of €25k new recruit gets €25k, cost neutral when you don't have to pay dole to new recruit and and old people get to spend their lumps sums creating new jobs and paying off mortgages. This is known as a no brainer in Rathgar, Blackrock and Terenure, daddy retires and son gets his job, as for the blebs who gives a ....

What are you on about? Any link for the early retirement scheme and your belief that somehow these retirees will be replaced by their children? A civil service job is an hereditary position now?

James esq

The_Conductor wrote: »

We're not talking about predictions.
You said you have evidence.
We asked you to show us.

I am talking about forecasting and yes prediction, this is a very well established techinique used in accountancy, science, weather and sociology and other fields. Not to go into a lot of detail it is uses patterns to say what is going to happen in the future, you don't normally ask a forecaster where is it written eg that it will rain tomorrow you just have to wait 24 hours and see - yes sometimes they are wrong but it is rare. So you will have to wait until June or July to see if I am wrong - I wasn't wrong about by my prediction about the end of the embargo.

The Gibzilla

James esq wrote: »

I am talking about forecasting and yes prediction, this is a very well established techinique used in accountancy, science, weather and sociology and other fields. Not to go into a lot of detail it is uses patterns to say what is going to happen in the future, you don't normally ask a forecaster where is it written eg that it will rain tomorrow you just have to wait 24 hours and see - yes sometimes they are wrong but it is rare. So you will have to wait until June or July to see if I am wrong - I wasn't wrong about by my prediction about the end of the embargo.

With an upcoming GE and the economy/job market turning, somewhat, for the better, as well as the high numbers of Temporary Clerical Officers and all other grades within the CS who knew about the upcoming recruitment drive well in advance then I would say that the above in bold isn't much of a prediction.

Mrs OBumble

James esq wrote: »

I am talking about forecasting and yes prediction, this is a very well established techinique used in accountancy, science, weather and sociology and other fields. Not to go into a lot of detail it is uses patterns to say what is going to happen in the future, you don't normally ask a forecaster where is it written eg that it will rain tomorrow you just have to wait 24 hours and see - yes sometimes they are wrong but it is rare. So you will have to wait until June or July to see if I am wrong - I wasn't wrong about by my prediction about the end of the embargo.

James esq, I think I get where you're coming from: the statement about an early retirement scheme is a new prediction from you, rather than a statement of fact.

But to stop these things going in circles again, please start paragraphs where you're giving new predictions with "I predict that ... " or similar, so that it's very clear what is speculation, and what is fact that you're telling us about.

eg I predict that if James esq isn't clearer about predictions vs facts, he will get warnings that he doesn't fully deserve.