EPL Match Betting Challenge (Week 1) - Tottenham vs Manchester City

x PyRo

Righteo lads, this week we're going to try and find some winning bets in the Tottenham vs Manchester City game, live on Sky Sports on Saturday at 12:45pm.

Should be quite a good opening game to the season.

Rules are quite simple;

1. No crappy one line posts saying 'bet X is a sure thing' etc. Do this and you'll be warned!
2. Talk about the betting, not your vendetta against a certain club.

Betting at the moment is;

Tottenham - 7/5 (Bet365)
Draw - 12/5 (StanJames,Boyles)
Man City - 21/10 (Victor Chandler)

Discuss whatever aspects of the betting that attract you to it, why you feel it has a solid chances and put some reasoning to it! We're not all going to agree obviously so don't be bothered if someone doesn't agree with what you say, this is only an experiment for now but I think it could be quite interesting.

I'll be back with my full thoughts tomorrow evening after I spend a while reviewing the game, the over 2.5 goals is catching my eye at the moment and I think that could be one of my main bets. I'll come back to it all tomorrow when I get time.

Good luck men and voice your opinions and see if this will work.

Two bets for me in this one.

Both teams to score @ 1.72.
Spurs Draw no bet 1.76

I've a feeling it will be an open game as both teams will try to lay down a marker early in the season and I'm expecting a few goals.

Spurs were impressive at home last year and I don't think they'll lose this game and may even nick it 2-1.

colly_06

I personally think this has a draw written all over it. Both teams will want to get off to a good start and will play very attacking football which will cancel each other out I believe. With the addition of Yaya Toure it will be hard to break City down.

Bet for me:
Draw (9/4)

3hn2givr7mx1sc

Spurs to win, imo.

They're strong at home and 'Arry didn't really disrupt the squad with too many signings this summer, which is always a good sign.
City are a tough nut to crack this year, it could all go tits up or they could be a force. I think it will all go tits up, tbh, don't think Mancini is a good enough manager and I don't think he even nearly knows what his best team is.

Spurs DNB, to be safe.

x PyRo

Both teams to score looks a solid one, bit short for my liking though. Spurs a weak defensively down their left with Assou-Ekotto at LB and Bale further up the wing. I think City will exploit this quite handily with whoever they play on the right, would be interesting to see who City play there but I'd say it'll be Adam Johnson and he's 11/2 (Will Hill) to score anytime which looks a very overpriced should he start, obviously it's one to wait for the team sheet. On the other hand, with Richards/Zabaleta likely to be right back for City and bombing on too I can see Gareth Bale getting a lot of room on the left wing should the chance to counter attack arise and he's 10/1 (PaddyPower) to score anytime which looks huge if he continues this season in the way he left last season. Both of those will be ones I'll be waiting for the team sheet but are severely overpriced.

Daemos

I fancy Man City to do really well this season. They've made a lot of good signing and are genuine title challengers, and I fully expect them to get a result out of this match. They're a best-priced 6/5 DNB with VC, which IMO is much better value than Spurs in the same market.

Peyton Manning

Robbie Keane has had a great preseason, and scored quite a few goals. It doesn't look as if he'll be moving on now, and I fancy him to see some action this weekend. 12/5 on Skybet for him to score anytime is worth a small flutter.

T-b0n3

Bale anytime 10/1?! I like the sound of that. He should start left wing and imo is a goal threat.

N Kranjcar, L Modric, D Bentley, A Lennon, D Rose, J Jenas, T Huddlestone & Y Kaboul all shorter to score any time? Thats insane.

1 pt Bale any time @10/1.*

.25 pts first goal scorer @25/1.*

and 1 euro on 2 or more goals @100/1!* ha (just for fun, and yes I do have a man crush on Bale.)

All on Paddy Power.

*As long as hes starting.

Overs looks good too, not a great price though.

I'll have a look more and post back if I have time.

Edit// Only just read the other thread re this new idea. So sorry.

Just also wanted to say, football having its own section, threads being set up for each weekend, mid week etc, its great. Forum much better and it seems to have got more people involved and talking which is great.

So well done lads.

ValueSeeker

Couple of thoughts on projected game pattern:

City will probably come with emphasis on keeping it tight, especially early on and hitting on the counter. They will employ 2 defensive midfielders which is Mancini (and most Italian managers)style. That could mean less chances than expected for Spurs.

Tevez is lacking a bit of fitness but if he starts, he's the type of player that will thrive on the spaces at the back when Spurs pile forward (as is their style)

Look for Spurs to try and hit down the flanks with players like Bale and Lennon if he starts - 2 of the premiership's biggest corner earners. I'd expect City to clock up a few corners too on the counter with plenty of space for Johnson and co to get in behind and get the crosses in. Whiteheart lane is a short and pretty tight stadium/pitch that is conducive to corners being won.

I think the corner markets will be exploitable in this one and wouldn't be surprised if Spurs struggle.

A few bets to look at for some value:

City to score 2+ goals
Away win (DNB)
Corner markets (overs)

UpTheSlashers

Anothe option for the goalscorer markets is Jo - 4 goals in Citys 7 pre-season friendlies. Provided he plays obviously.

Warper

Dont want to sound like a downer but anyone gambling on this game needs their head examined. First game of the season featuring 2 evenly matched sides who were inseparable last season. The fact that Spurs are at home counteracts City's great signings - just impossible to predict with any degree of confidence.

L'prof

Warper wrote: »

Dont want to sound like a downer but anyone gambling on this game needs their head examined. First game of the season featuring 2 evenly matched sides who were inseparable last season. The fact that Spurs are at home counteracts City's great signings - just impossible to predict with any degree of confidence.

There's so many markets these days that there's bound to be one that can be exploited. I'd agree though, if you were to just look at the win-draw-win market it's very tough to call!

Nuri Sahin

I'll have a small sum on Bale anytime @ 10/1.

Ridiculously great odds.

ValueSeeker

Another market to look at lads in the "To Be Booked" market. With White Heart Lane a very compact playing area and the centre of midfield set to be over loaded with (for want of a better word) 'beasts', there should be some value when the prices come out.

Skybet are up now but I can't see De Jong. Suspended?

Stay up to date - To Be Booked - Oddchecker

JMB88

Palacios is one to definitly one to consider if betting on the 'to be booked' market. I'm gonna go for over 2.5 goals @ 10/11 added in with a few other selections from other weekend games.

T-b0n3

FU*K SAKE!!!!

Was going to back Bale yesterday now hes gone down to 5/1. FFS! :mad::mad:


siiggghhh

Daemos

Could be some value to be had in the "To Score In Both Halves Market", Spurs are a best-price 3/1, Man City are 4/1. Could be worth having a small bet on both.

yesno1234

I think both teams to score could be a good bet. Don't think it will be the greatest odd but I can't see spurs being able to stop the city attack and I think its unlikely that spurs will not score at least 1 at home.

I think I'm going to put on the over2.5 which seems a good bet.

DeadSkin

City have a poor record against Spurs.

Last 10 meetings haven't produced a draw.
Of those 10 games Spurs have won their 5 home games and won 4 away games :eek:

Over 2.5 goals certainly looks like the bet to take...........or lump on Spurs :pac: :pac:

jkelly85

Tottenham V Man City

A hard game to call, but i think citys pre-season form has been poor i have watched two of the games in the u.s and they did not look good.

I would take tottenham at 7-5 (bet365)
or
i say there mite be afew goals in it, so over 2.5 goals would be the bet

Over 2.5 goal 21-20 (bet365)

Vurnon San Benito

I'd be fancying an Under 2.5 Goals Here.
I think both teams won't give too much away, and being the first game of the season, will refrain from an all-out attack.

Could be a 1-0 to Spurs, which @ 8/1 could be quite tempting.
Paolo Zabaleta to be booked @ 2/1 might be tempting too, considering he'll have Bale running at him, providing he plays that is.

Will decide whether I'll be betting on it a while before the game, probably end up deciding against.

Anyway, there's my two cents.
Best of luck to everyone.

ingo1984

I am going for spurs -1 in this match. Spurs have one of the best home records in the league over the past few seasons, and one of the best defensive records at home, if not the best.They will have the same squad as last year so no need for players to gel unlike city. City will struggle away from home just like last year, and it will take a while for the team to gel together. This, with mancini who is a numpty of a manager, i feel city are way over hyped.Spurs will play with pace down the wings with lennon and bale, and i feel this will open city up who defensively look like a nightmare waiting to happen. If spurs score early i can see them putting two or three on city just like the 3-0 last year, and they could have won by more.Spurs -1

fkiely

Tottenham - Man City

Fascinating game here in the early kick off. Tough one to call and a game which means an awful lot to both sides. For Man City it’s crucial to get something here, off one of their rivals for that Champions League spot. The same applies for Tottenham who’ll be very eager to get point on the board at home this early in the season. In a game like this, I find it too difficult to judge who’s going to scrape it. Looking at previous meetings between the two would certainly favour Tottenham but Man City are a bit of an enigma at the moment and a difficult one to call. In this regard I’d have to plump for the over 2.5 goals.
Last season both sides beat this market in over half of their games. There is plenty of attacking options on both sides and even this early in the season I’d expect a relatively open game. The major gripe here would be whether Mancini plays ultra defensive or not but I feel we’ll be begin to see more expansive football from them this season as he goes about trying to change the huge amount of draws they had last year into wins.
In pre season Tottenham went over in 6 out of their 9 games while City went over in half of theirs with the remaining having two goals in each game. Point here is that both sides are scoring and conceding plenty not that you can read much into preseason form.
In previous meetings between the two goals have been aplenty. In the last ten meetings between the two, eight of the games have gone over 2.5 goals. An interesting stat is that 7 of those eight finished 2-1.
A small flutter on the game will be Robbie Keane anytime if he starts. He’s been on good form preseason and looks like he’ll start. A golden opportunity for Keane to impress the manager.

5 pts Over 2.5 goals @ 5/6 (PP)
2 pts Exactly 3 goals @ 10/3 (365)
2 pts Robbie Keane anytime @ 21/10 (PP)* Providing he's starting
1 pt 2-1 to Tottenham @ 8/1 (365)

Devastator

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Another market to look at lads in the "To Be Booked" market. With White Heart Lane a very compact playing area and the centre of midfield set to be over loaded with (for want of a better word) 'beasts', there should be some value when the prices come out.

Skybet are up now but I can't see De Jong. Suspended?

Stay up to date - To Be Booked - Oddchecker

My bet on this game is de jong to be booked (11/10) and Zenit to win(4/7).


de jong will probably have to drop back and cover Modric's runs, if Modric gets a run on him de jong is liable for a challenge from behind....and lets also remind ourselves of de jong's last competitive match...

mailburner

not sure where some of ye guys were getting 10s on bale anytime
but id love some of that.
i dont see spurs losing this game myself.
i have a very small bet on 1-0 spurs

TheJokerIRL

I expect the possession to remain in midfield for huge periods of the game and can easily see a draw in this game. paddy power are refunding correct score bets if game ends with no goals so my bet is 1-1 correct score.

Nuri Sahin

mailburner wrote: »

not sure where some of ye guys were getting 10s on bale anytime
but id love some of that.

It was originally 10/1 for Bale AT, on Wenesday I think it was.

PP copped, he went down to 5/1 on unfortunately.

Agree with Dev, here De Jong being booked should be easy money. Have a tenner on this myself.

Nuri Sahin

50 seconds in... De Jong living dangerously already :pac:

Devastator

Adnan Alves wrote: »

Agree with Dev, here De Jong being booked should be easy money. Have a tenner on this myself.

48 seconds in and he wins first foul of the season for challenge on Bale, lets hope today's referee is not as lenient as the ref in the world cup final. In fact....lenient is an understatement!

T-b0n3

Bale already hit the bar! So close. Such be at least 2 up at this stage. Spurs playing great.

blindpilot

T-b0n3 wrote: »

Bale already hit the bar! So close. Such be at least 2 up at this stage. Spurs playing great.

They could have had 4 or 5 by end of half. I threw 30 quid on over 2.5 goals at evens on betfair just before kick off. How am I not enjoying that win yet?:eek:. Still 45 mins to go. Great game so far.

Kod-box

Threw a sizable amount on over 2.5 there now @ 7/2

Nuri Sahin

Small amount on City first goal @21/10.

BTW does anyone know a decent site that keeps up to date with live match facts?

colly_06

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/gamecast?id=293013&league=ENG.1&cc=5739

El Horseboxo

Think Colly was the only one who called a draw in this one from reading through the thread. You get on it or was that just an opinion in here?

Vurnon San Benito

Doocey wrote: »

I'd be fancying an Under 2.5 Goals Here.
I think both teams won't give too much away, and being the first game of the season, will refrain from an all-out attack.

Could be a 1-0 to Spurs, which @ 8/1 could be quite tempting.
Paolo Zabaleta to be booked @ 2/1[/B] might be tempting too, considering he'll have Bale running at him, providing he plays that is.

Will decide whether I'll be betting on it a while before the game, probably end up deciding against.

Anyway, there's my two cents.
Best of luck to everyone.

Not a bad days work at all.

colly_06

El Horseboxo wrote: »

Think Colly was the only one who called a draw in this one from reading through the thread. You get on it or was that just an opinion in here?

Had 2 pts on it in my log.

jacool

Doocey, off to the bar now and no re-investing!!