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Property Value

  • 07-08-2010 01:22PM
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 15


    here we are
    August 2010.... They say the property values is now the same as 9 years ago....
    Does this mean it is now a good time to buy or is the value of the properties going to drop farther? and for how long? When would it be the best time to buy?
    if I look around the property sites, I see a significant drop of really nice houses (3 bedrooms) but still in areas such as Blanchardstown, Talah, Balbriggan, Lucan, Finglas, Clondalkin.
    Will we ever going to see a real drop where we can afford a house worth 200 K in the south side of the city near the dart for example?


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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,834 ✭✭✭Welease


    here we are
    August 2010.... They say the property values is now the same as 9 years ago....
    Does this mean it is now a good time to buy or is the value of the properties going to drop farther? and for how long? When would it be the best time to buy?
    if I look around the property sites, I see a significant drop of really nice houses (3 bedrooms) but still in areas such as Blanchardstown, Talah, Balbriggan, Lucan, Finglas, Clondalkin.
    Will we ever going to see a real drop where we can afford a house worth 200 K in the south side of the city near the dart for example?

    You are asking people to predict the future..... Generally an imprecise science :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 959 ✭✭✭changes


    There is still a large difference between what people think their houses are worth today with what they are actually worth.

    Also, you know this country and the attitude we have to owning property too. Imo as soon as the banks start lending again and the first green shoots appear i think that is the day that prices will stop falling.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,364 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    Why don't you holdout and save more? is there a specific need or rush??

    Prices are still going down whether you listen to daft or esri reports

    Bank lending is getting tighter so you would need a large deposit anyways and rates have only one way to go, so get used to putting away a large chunk of your earnings now


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 15 girasole225


    Thank you guys
    ei.sdraob I don't have any rush in buying now of course, I know we can't predict the future but I just wanted to know if you guys think there is any chance whatsoever that we can effort one day a house worth the way they are now but in a very nice part of Dublin.
    At the moment you can easily buy a nice house for less then 200K but the areas are not so great. Will we ever managed to get the same price house in Monkstown for example? or is this a question to which we can't give an answer, just a big question mark?
    As for the time it's taking for the properties to drop, I have the impression the banks are starting to lend money perhaps not as it used to be but easier then a year ago. would you guys say it will most likely be an other year, few months before the drop ends? I am not asking for a specific answer of course but just an idea on what's going on.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 959 ✭✭✭changes


    Thank you guys
    ei.sdraob I don't have any rush in buying now of course, I know we can't predict the future but I just wanted to know if you guys think there is any chance whatsoever that we can effort one day a house worth the way they are now but in a very nice part of Dublin.
    At the moment you can easily buy a nice house for less then 200K but the areas are not so great. Will we ever managed to get the same price house in Monkstown for example? or is this a question to which we can't give an answer, just a big question mark?
    As for the time it's taking for the properties to drop, I have the impression the banks are starting to lend money perhaps not as it used to be but easier then a year ago. would you guys say it will most likely be an other year, few months before the drop ends? I am not asking for a specific answer of course but just an idea on what's going on.

    What price are they looking for for a nice house in monkstown at the min?


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,693 ✭✭✭Laminations


    At the moment you can easily buy a nice house for less then 200K but the areas are not so great. Will we ever managed to get the same price house in Monkstown for example? or is this a question to which we can't give an answer, just a big question mark?

    A house's price is partly if not significantly determined by it's location so why for the life of me you think an equivalent sized house in monkstown and Finglas would be equivalent prices is beyond me. The prices in the housing Market are all relative. A house in a nice area WILL ALWAYS be worth more than the same size house in a less desirable area.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 15 girasole225


    Hi Laminations
    I was already aware on the fact that prices of properties in nice areas will always be higher then the once in different areas, it will always be like that no matter what.
    My question was different, I was inquiring if the prices of properties of average areas right now will be eventually the same as the once from nice area in the future when the prices will reach the bottom.
    In few words will we ever get to a stage where a house in Blanchertown will be worth say 90K and the one in Monkstown 200K?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,693 ✭✭✭Laminations


    Hi Laminations
    I was already aware on the fact that prices of properties in nice areas will always be higher then the once in different areas, it will always be like that no matter what.
    My question was different, I was inquiring if the prices of properties of average areas right now will be eventually the same as the once from nice area in the future when the prices will reach the bottom.
    In few words will we ever get to a stage where a house in Blanchertown will be worth say 90K and the one in Monkstown 200K?

    Well how long is a piece of string? Our opinion on this doesn't matter. If you think a house is worth the price then that's all that counts, unless of course you are buying as an investment. What do you consider to be a reasonable price for a house in monkstown? If they are at that level then buy, if not then wait. Maybe you'll need to compromise and realise you can't afford a reasonably priced house in monkstown, maybe not. Our opinions are simply that, opinions, based on what we each consider reasonable.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 583 ✭✭✭McDougal


    All the indictations are that prices will continue to fall.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 959 ✭✭✭changes


    It would be hard to see prices in sought after areas of dublin dropping very low imo.

    Someone was on here recently saying in the nicer parts of mullingar houses are coming on the market and are sold within a month, even now, while in other parts of the same town houses are not selling even though they have dropped in price.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 15 girasole225


    mmh I guess you have to be lucky to find the perfect house at the perfect price :rolleyes: even in the current scenario...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42 Mr. Mac


    House prices will continue to fall as long as we continue to lose jobs. Until the time comes when we start to create employment as a good rate will we see prices start to climb again (that will be at a slow rate).

    My guess is they will fall by another 5-10% over the next 12 -18 months. Stabilise for a further couple of years and remain at that level until we start reducing the numbers signing on.

    I wouldnt necessarily rule out buying property now especially if u have your heart set on it as you wont make any significant loses. But if u can hold out for a further few months then that would be the best thing to do.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,582 ✭✭✭WalterMitty


    We know asking prices are still crazy as rental yields are still so low. Ignore asking prices other than as a general starting price to work down from. Multiply what a similar property is renting for oer month by 12 months that are in a year. Then multiply this figure by say 15 to give an attractive price for such a property. That gives you a price that offers a 7% gross rental yield, which is what you would want considering costs of ownership and alternative investment opportunities.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,559 ✭✭✭ricman


    I THINK its simplistic to say southside= nice areas ,northside=bad,santry,beaumont,clontarf,phibsboro,glasnevin are nice places to live.
    i lived on the southside,and the northside,and id say theres very little difference between living in goatstown vs living in beaumont apart from the dart accent.
    Houses in goatstown, are around 580k, so maybe they might go down to 500k, so great, do you really want to go to a bank and borrow 500k= 1million loan payback.IN A RECESSION, with firms closing down, shops closing ,taxes rising etc thats assuming a bank would lend you 450k.
    I EXPECT PRICES in dublin to go down by ten/20 per cent ,but no one can predict the future ,but i think it,ll take at least 5 years for the economy to improve ,and even then we will be loaded with government dept .
    i suppose some people think theres no good quality of life on the northside, which is completely ridiculous and narrow minded.Theres plenty of doctors,lawyers ,middle class people who are perfectly happy to live on the northside.
    lets say prices go down to 300k on the southside, it,ll probably be very hard to borrow 300k at that stage because the economy will be even worse than it is now.And credit will be tight.
    so to take goatstown as an example, we,ll probably never see prices there going down to
    200k, unless the economy collapses ,in which case whos gonna lend you 200k?
    i think in some cases banks are refusing mortgages, cos they think x might lose his job,
    , houses are losing value, they need to build up their reserves,and they are tightening up the criteria for loan approval.
    A house in rathmines,will always be worth alot more than a house in finglas.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,819 ✭✭✭dan_d


    To say southside is good and the northside is bad is totally ridiculous. Obviously, I'm a northsider, out in North County Dublin. Houses aren't ridiculous and they are just as nice as the southside. The southside will always cost more, because people perceive it to be a "nice" place and therefore will be willing to spend more.

    House prices will in all likelihood drop more, although how much exactly nobody can tell. BUT.....in all the chat about houses and how low they go, 2 other important items tend to glossed over. Firstly, interest rates. I hate to say - they can only go up. So this time next year, you might find a house that's dropped fifty grand, but you'll be only able to get a mortgage of about 5/6% - maybe more (slight exaggeration perhaps). They don't do tracker mortgages any more, and our banks are so screwed, their interest rates can only go up. Secondly, how much the bank is prepared to lend you based on your job security and your partners relative income, as compared to how much they would have lent you 3 years ago. A lot less for many people, I would imagine.

    So it's not just the price of the house to be taken into account - there's a number of other factors aswell. But to answer your original question, then yes, I would imagine they will go down some amount more, but it cannot be quantified.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,593 ✭✭✭Sea Sharp


    Prices will keep on coming down due to the basics of supply and demand. I think there's a good possibility that property prices in Ireland will follow a similar trend to that of Japan over the last 30 years:

    Japan-Real-Estate-Prices.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,535 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    Japan had massive deflation. Being part of the euro, we won't (that's not saying prices won't fall, just that our model won't follow japan).

    We're going to have to inflate at some stage, it's the only way to reduce the debt burden that's stifling the economy.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 39,019 ✭✭✭✭Permabear


    This post has been deleted.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 759 ✭✭✭mrgaa1


    not much more to fall. There are houses being sold for less than what it costs to buy the land, pay the fees and build and finish the house.
    Certainly there are areas where property may have a bit more to go - but others where it probably has more or less settled. Unfortunately current the economic climate especially the job situation will mean it will take sometime before some confidence comes back to the market.
    Also some places need to be dozed as they are becoming a huge health and safety problem


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,103 ✭✭✭North_West_Art


    unemployment is at its highest since 1991... if this figure isn't corrected soon, we might see property prices starting to reflect what prices were back then. In terms of supply and demand, we have an over supply, and a lack of demand.. and until banks start to offer people mortgages here again, property will be worth what the seller can get for it


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,718 ✭✭✭SkepticOne


    mrgaa1 wrote: »
    not much more to fall. There are houses being sold for less than what it costs to buy the land, pay the fees and build and finish the house.
    How is that relevant?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,092 ✭✭✭catbear


    astrofool wrote: »
    Japan had massive deflation. Being part of the euro, we won't (that's not saying prices won't fall, just that our model won't follow japan).

    We're going to have to inflate at some stage, it's the only way to reduce the debt burden that's stifling the economy.
    I do agree that being in the Euro could give a different outcome because of inflation in the eurozone but we still have the matter of excess supply. By various estimates there are roughly 300,000 empties for a population of just over 4m, that's a huge overhang. Also to consider is the second hand market, houses that would have been left empty will be put on the market if property rates and taxes are introduced; I think they will be.

    Dublin and other large urban area will probably bottom out first but I don't expect any price rebound for a long time after that.

    Nationally houses prices will probably overshoot Morgan Kellys 70% peak to bottom estimate.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,819 ✭✭✭dan_d


    unemployment is at its highest since 1991... if this figure isn't corrected soon, we might see property prices starting to reflect what prices were back then. In terms of supply and demand, we have an over supply, and a lack of demand.. and until banks start to offer people mortgages here again, property will be worth what the seller can get for it

    Which is exactly what it should be worth.

    What were house prices at roughly in 1991? (I was only 9 then - things like that didn't come into my sphere of existence!). Dropping so low would create a huge gulf in mortgage owners - I wonder how we'd tackle that...

    Wages do influence to a certain extent aswell though, and the types of mortgage available...if 35/40 year mortgages are no longer available, and interest rates are higher, there's only a certain percentage of a person's wage that they can afford to pay on a mortgage payment every month, reducing the amount they can afford as a mortgage. Wages would need to fall quite drastically too, and the way irish people react to that would suggest it probably won't happen.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,487 ✭✭✭Mister men


    Unless you are desperate do not buy at present. Another 30-40% will fall off the prices of houses in the greater Dublin area.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 299 ✭✭Low Energy Eng


    Just keep your eye on http://www.statusireland.com/


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 216 ✭✭Highly Salami


    Mister men wrote: »
    Unless you are desperate do not buy at present. Another 30-40% will fall off the prices of houses in the greater Dublin area.

    source?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,103 ✭✭✭North_West_Art


    dan_d wrote: »
    Which is exactly what it should be worth.

    What were house prices at roughly in 1991? (I was only 9 then - things like that didn't come into my sphere of existence!). Dropping so low would create a huge gulf in mortgage owners - I wonder how we'd tackle that...

    The cost of building in '91 compared to the last 7-8 increased quite a bit, so you might only be able to gauge prices based on building cost/selling price ratio.
    In 1991, a new 2 story, 3 bedroom in Letterkenny (I lived in it while a student when I was 20) were being sold for IRL £ 33,000... so approx €42,000.

    The same houses were going for €190,000 about 5 years ago.

    Today, prices range from 159,000 to 120,000... I dodn't think Im allowed to put a link up to the properties here, but a search on Daft for Letterkenny house prices will give you an idea

    *Parts of Donegal had the least inflated prices in the country


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,892 ✭✭✭Head The Wall


    House in Castlebar Brand New 3 Bed Semi D in 1995 was £29,000 still around 180-200 now


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 24,612 ✭✭✭✭Sleepy


    Cheapest 3 bed house in Clontarf on Daft.ie at the moment still has an asking price of €385,000 with the next closest having an asking price of "Excess €429,950".

    Not sure how close to asking price people are getting in the area but property does seem to be moving - not too many places going up for sale and those that do seem to go inside a couple of months.

    I don't agree with the market's valuation but it seems to be bottoming out in some of the nicer areas in Dublin tbh.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,434 ✭✭✭doc_17


    A 3 bed semi for 385 is mental. OK it'll go for a bit cheaper but that is still too high. We've a way to go yet I believe before the bottom


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