Pyro's 2010/11 Football Bets!

x PyRo

Evening lads, going to put all my selections/opinions here throughout the season.

I've a decent record at the oul' football, better at it than the horses when only doing singles, although I'm fond of the accys which cost me fortunes!

I'll be putting up bets every time I fancy something and looking for good value first and foremost. I like to go into most markets available and I find a lot of bets that are overpriced and exploitable. Hopefully this will continue!

I work off a 1-5 point scale. 1pt being a smaller bet, and 5pts being a max bet that I think has a serious chance of coming through. I'll be on anything from the Premiership to League 2 and the foreign leagues at times but mainly the British league.

I'll provide as much reasoning as I can to a bet and hopefully it'll turn out to be very profitable between now and the end of the season, and there'll be mostly singles and the odd accumulator here and there. :pac:

Starting with a 100point bank and hopefully work it from there!

First bet:

Norwich vs Watford - 1pt @ 4/1 (VictorChandler)

The Championship starts again thank God, one of the best league to bet on in my opinion, always massively overpriced away teams that often do quite well. It's the opening day of the season and I can already see a mini-shock in the first game. Norwich are typically slow starters, they've lost their opening fixture over the last two years and haven't won an opening fixture since '02. They're likely to be without their star striker, Grant Holt, who's in court during the day on motor offences and faces a race against time to travel over 200miles to get to the game. They have been struggling to score during pre-season, they've been held goalless on three occasions against lower league teams, although they managed to score twice vs Newcastle and also against Everton but they lost 4-2 in that game. Their pre-season record is 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats. I expect them to do well this season but they might be feeling the pressure of the optimistic Canaries fans, who expect their team to be going for the play-offs at the first attempt after gaining promotion last year, I think they'll do well but I'm expecting them to struggle today.

Watford have a young inexperienced squad and although they're tipped by many to go down, and expected to be beaten comprehensively here I think they've a good chance of getting a solid mid-table position come the end of the season. Their defense is quite solid, and they've kept 4 clean sheets in 6 friendlies. Their keeper, Scott Loach, is a top prospect and hopefully he'll be able to repel the Norwich attacks. They've some good defenders with the likes of Mariappa and Doyley on their books. Solid in midfield and their attackers have been banging in the goals in pre-season, scoring 15 goals in 6 games including a 4-0 win against Coventry, who I also fancy to do quite well this season. They have had a decent pre-season, winning 4, drawing 1 and the solitary loss. They've a good goalscorer up front in Danny Graham who amassed a decent tally last year. Watford have won 3 of their last 4 visits to Carrow road and I think they could make it 4 in 5 if they continue to be solid at the back and give Graham enough service. First bet of the new season for me and I think they've a far more likely chance than the 4/1 odds suggest, they're as short as 11/4 with other firms and I believe 2/1 would be a more realistic price. They're available @ 5/2 with Victor for the Draw No Bet which is a brilliant price but I'll be greedy and go for the straight win at 4/1. Here's hoping!

iMuse

Was hoping you would do a Football thread Best of luck, ill be reading with interest.

SDTimeout

Here you, change to espirit here will ya

x PyRo

G'way Timeout.

Cheers Muse. Hopefully it doesn't start off on a dud like nearly every thread I've started has! The really good stuff will be on Saturday, some cracking opening games and the prices of some of the away teams is unreal. Should be fun. :pac: Gillette Soccer Saturday is back too... weeehoo!

SDTimeout

I think i'll start one and go against you. Just for the fun....

fkiely

Good luck in this fella, will be following it as you seem to know your stuff.

SantryRed

Would this not be better in logs?

And then we could have a weekly thread where we discuss each weekend's games? Just it'll be very hard to discuss and follow things if a lot of people have their own types of threads and there's 3 so far.


Not dissing you Pyro Just a suggestion.

scopper

Well this is good news indeed. Looking forward to your analysis. I don't bet on football but I look forward to your thoughts on the matches for sure. Good luck!

Nuri Sahin

Agree with the comments posted, look forward to your posts/analysis Pyro. Good luck.

ValueSeeker

Good stuff Pyro, will keep an eye on the thread.

x PyRo

SantryRed wrote: »

Would this not be better in logs?

No.

This will be the only place I'm putting my bets, Aidan has his horse thread in the horse section, I have my football one in the football section. :pac: Plus the more the newer forums are used the better.

Thanks to everyone else, much appreciated.

T-b0n3

Good luck Pyro. Will be checking your tips regularly.

x PyRo

Cheers mate. VC cut the price to 16/5 now, best priced 7/2. Glad with my price now, lets hope they do the business.

deise48

good luck xpyro with the log but im gonna go against you on the norwich game tonight

T-b0n3

Boom. Watford 1 nil up. Still a long time left though!

Edit/ 2 - 0 now. Spot on the money so far pyro.

deise48

looking good so far xpyro watrord two up now

x PyRo

Good start so far, nice change from my horses today. Keep going Watford!

4/1 was a stupid price altogether.

eclectichoney

Pity I missed out on this one - got home too late But will be watching this thread xPyro - you know your stuff Dying for the season to start. Good luck

x PyRo

Great start, delighted for them altogether. They'll be good this season and not relegated as many think!

Bank - 104pts (+4pts)

Bets - 1
Wins - 1
SR - 100%
Staked - 1pt
Returned - 5pts


Hopefully it goes as well tomorrow!

SantryRed

x PyRo wrote: »

Great start, delighted for them altogether. They'll be good this season and not relegated as many think!

I will now be holding you personally responsible if we get relegated this season

x PyRo

Not a hope in hell man! Danny Graham, Danny Graham. :pac:

x PyRo

First bet for tomorrow.

(5:15pm on the BBC)

Leeds vs Derby - 2pts : Over2.5 Goals @ 23/20 (Bet365)

The bookies seem to think this will be a low scoring affair with the unders priced at 8/11 in most places, I think the opposite and I can see a high scoring affair. Both teams are missing their main central defender with Leeds having Kisnorbo absent through injury and Derby's 2009 player of the year, Shaun Barker, also out through injury. They'll also be short of hard man, Miles Addison, who in my opinion, is a big loss to Derby who have beaten Leeds on the last three occasions in which they've faced off. Although, Leeds have won every opening game of the season since relegation from the Premier League in 2004 and Derby had a dreadful away from home record last year, only managing 3 victories from 23 games.

Both teams have been banging in the goals in pre-season, Leeds scoring 14 goals in their 6 games and Derby scoring 14 also. Both have had trouble keeping the opposition to a low score also with the Elland Road outfit conceding 6 and The Rams conceding 11 goals from their 6 friendlies. I can't see how the Over 2.5 goals isn't the favourite outcome here considering both teams are effective going forward and defective at the back. Leeds are traditionally strong at home and I expect them to gain victory in this match but just on the off-chance that we see a resurgent Derby team I'll go with the bet that I feel is safer and back the over 2.5 goals at a tasty 23/20 which is available with Bet365. I'll be surprised if it doesn't come in and I'd even bet tempted to do over 3.5 if I had more money than sense but I'll play it safe. Leeds should win, but at even money they're a little short.

matt1958

Thats a cracking start there Pyro well done .. Long may it continue.. Any thoughts on QPR and Swindon tomorrow?

x PyRo

Cheers Matty, QPR have won 8 out of their last 9 games against Barnsley, the other was a draw. Only one winner there if all goes to plan! :pac:

I think Swindon/Brighton will be a draw. Both are good solid teams who should be in the playoffs and I think they'll cancel each other out or else have a 4-4 thriller. Should be close, probably would avoid it or back the draw.

matt1958

Cheers.. They were the two that jumped at me going through the lists.. I'll just avoid the Swindon game not one for going for draws idk why:pac:.. I'll keep looking

x PyRo

(12:15pm on SkySports1)

Southampton vs Plymouth

Backed this fellow to score many times last year and he usually obliged. The former Tottenham striker found his feet with Southend in the lower leagues, scoring 35 times in 70 appearances before moving to this years current League One favourites in January. He found his feet quickly with Southampton and scored 9 goals in 20 appearances and could of had many more goals. He'll be in with a serious chance of winning the golden boot this year if he continues in the same vain of form as he experienced before the end of the season. I'll certainly be backing him to score numerous times throughout the season, with Rickie Lambert likely to miss out (Struggling with groin injury) today Barnard will be the main man for Southampton, he's a threat in the air and good with his feet too. If he gets enough service I think he'll get at least one against a Plymouth side who were shocking last year which resulted in them being relegated from the Championship. Barnard 5/4 with most firms to score anytime but the 13/8 with Boyles looks big and I'll be having a small bet on him to get his season off to a perfect start, Southampton should win the game but their 8/11 price doesn't represent the same value as Barnard grabbing a goal. Certainly worth a punt at good odds. Also having a smaller bet on him to score first, in the off chance that Lambert doesn't pass the fitness test the 5/1 available will be massive in comparison to what it should be with him unavailable.

2pts - Lee Barnard to score anytime @ 13/8 (Boylesports)
1pt - Lee Barnard to score first @ 5/1 (Boylesports)

Raoul

Lambert is out!

x PyRo

Probably should of though it was possible for Plymouth to keep a clean sheet! I expected more from S'hampton. He'll get me back next time hopefully.

Raoul

x PyRo wrote: »

Probably should of though it was possible for Plymouth to keep a clean sheet! I expected more from S'hampton. He'll get me back next time hopefully.

Great tackle to stop Barnard:(

x PyRo

Took a super tackle to stop him from tapping in. Argh! Hopefully there's loads of goals in the Leeds/Derby game.

x PyRo

Leeds vs Derby

Going to have another bet on this game, Leeds have a few key players out injured with Kisnorbo and Snodgrass out injured, Beckford is gone also and Billy Paynter is also out with injury, Max Gradel misses out through suspension. A couple of Leeds fans on another forum I'm on think they're a little short up front and likely to start with only Becchio likely to start upfront on his own. They've a very small midfield with Howson, Kilkenny and Johnson likely to form a 3 man central midfield and I can see the Derby midfield out battling them quite handily. Nerves may also play a part as big things are expected of Leeds by their faithful supporters and as with Norwich found out yesterday they will have to make a big step up to compete with even the supposed "lower" Championship teams. I expect Derby to do well this season, they were great in patches last year but so inconsistent, if they can get some rhythm to their game constantly then they stand a good chance of being upper mid-table at least. I originally thought that Leeds would win this game but all things considered and the price available on Derby (DNB) is too tempting to avoid. I'll be having a sizable bet on Derby Draw-No-Bet and hopefully it'll be justified. Leeds have won every opening game since 2004 but records are there to be broken and the expectation of the fans may get to them, plus Derby are a hardy solid team who should improve on last season and even managed to beat Stoke in a pre-season friendly. They've been banging in the goals also scoring 14 goals in 6 friendlies. I think it'll be a high scoring game and Derby have a good chance of coming out on top on a day where many of the away teams are doing well. 7/4 with Boylesports is too big to ignore and it's a 4pt bet for me.

4pts - Derby (DNB) @ 7/4 (Boylesports)

iMuse

1-1 Derby v Leeds after 15mins 1 more goal please

Kod-box

hopefully a Derby goal too for ye're sake

Pacifico

What are people going for tomorrow, Chelsea vs Man Utd?

iMuse

Get in, 2-1 derby, pyro you beauty

Kod-box

Good stuff

T-b0n3

Well done again Pyro. Good pick and thanks becuase stuck it in a small double.

Keep them coming.

Kod-box

Pacifico wrote: »

What are people going for tomorrow, Chelsea vs Man Utd?

Utd @ 15/8 or so is a steal imo, Chelsea look weak without Cech and Drogba, losing all their preseason games.

Raoul

Missed your derby tip and your watford tip damn!! Managed to follow your banard tip though :mad:

Haha, good luck. Any more bets for the day?

x PyRo

Gowan the Derby County! :pac: Great start to the thread despite Barnard missing a couple of sitters!

Bank - 110.30pts (+10.30pts)

Bets - 5
Wins - 3
SR - 60%
Staked - 10pts
Returned - 20.30pts

digme

x PyRo wrote: »

Gowan the Derby County! :pac: Great start to the thread despite Barnard missing a couple of sitters!

Bank - 110.30pts (+10.30pts)

Bets - 5
Wins - 3
SR - 60%
Staked - 10pts
Returned - 20.30pts

very nice

sonnky

Mr Bailey eat your heart out:D

Oat23

Well done mate. I'll be following.

Also, congrats on the modship..if that's the right word!

x PyRo

Cheers lads, good start apart from Mr. Barnard!

Trying to select what I'm going to back tomorrow, stumped at the moment.

coughlan08

well done so far in this unusually placed log..:p

i think i might complain to a mod,,"oh wait,crap, walk away say nothing".:D
congrads mate...

x PyRo

Cheers Coughlan,

It's not a log, it's extremely well thought out selection process. :pac:

Thanks man. Good stuff with your betting of late, going great guns!

3hn2givr7mx1sc

Great start with thr=e thread, I'll be tipping in every now and then.:D

Congrats with the Modship, pal.:D

Kod-box

Just noticed the Modhood now, well deserved squire lol

SRFC90

Aboy the lad Pyro, congrats. Won a few bob on Watford yesterday too!

x PyRo

Haha cheers men! Hopefully get a few 'tipping' challenges going and see who's the boss. :pac:

Good stuff SRFC, Watford done us proud.

x PyRo

(12:35pm - SkySports)

Cardiff v Sheffield Utd

A mouthwatering tie in Cardiff today with last years beaten finalists taking on a Sheffield United side who finished last season with a flurry and ended up missing out on the playoffs by five points. In recent years Sheffield United have a good record when coming to Wales, they've won two, drawn one and lost one from their last four visits at a stadium where the away team usually struggles to gain any points. Cardiff have lost Joe Ledley to Celtic this summer, Stephen McPhail is also out injured and new signing Jason Koumas is unlikely to be fit enough to start but should make the bench. Jay Bothroyd is another that could potentially miss out as he has a slight hamstring problem. They look light in the midfield to me and if Sheffield United get around and about them with force as I expect them to I can see Cardiff struggling despite their favourites tag and home advantage, they may also suffer from the disappointment of their Wembley exertions back in May.

Sheffield United will be optimistic for the new season, they've cleared out the dead wood in the squad and got a few decent players in with the likes of Bogdanovic coming in from Barnsley and Ertl from Palace. Both experienced in this division and a handy addition to any team. I think United will more than likely go with a 4-5-1 formation and crowd out the Cardiff midfield which is looking a bit light of strength at the moment. Leon Britton, a recent arrival from City's big rivals Swansea is likely to start as the main attacking threat in a three man central midfield with two deeper lying midfielder's in behind him providing support for the central defenders of Sheffield who I expect to be the battle hardened Chris Morgan and new recruit Nyron Nosworthy who has joined on loan from Sunderland.

Ched Evans is hopefully going to lead the line for them after recovering from a hamstring operation, he's an extremely good talent and with Henderson out injured I think he's the best option for them and if they do go with only one man up front. He's big, strong and powerful, effective in the air and as good with the ball at his feet, assuming he starts, the 11/4 available on Ched Evans to score any time with PaddyPower is very good value and I expect he'll rake up a decent tally this season if he's a constant in their team. I think it'll be a tight enough game but I fancy Sheffield United to push on from their end of season form and get to the playoff's at least this season, Cardiff will be aiming to similar levels this season but I think they could be out-battled by a strong looking Sheffield United team, there were no draws on the opening day of the nPower Championship and 6 of the 11 games ended in away wins and I think this could go to the away side also. I'm torn between taking the 13/8 available for Sheffield United (DNB) or the 13/5 for the straight win. I think I'll be greedy and go for the bigger odds and hope that the away wins trend continues, it should be an entertaining match regardless. The Blades haven't won an opening away league game since 1989, but Leeds hadn't lost an opening home league game in a similar period and I feel that record should go soon and hopefully today's the day! Records are there to be broken.

3pts - Sheffield United to win @ 13/5 (Bet365)
2pts - Ched Evans to score anytime* @ 11/4 (PaddyPower)

*Bet won't be placed until I know if he's starting.