King George - Saturday 24th - 4.25

Nulty

1 CONFRONT 5yo 9-7lbs
OR111 Richard Mullen 250/1
bay gelding Nayef (USA) — Contiguous (USA) (Danzig (USA))


2 HARBINGER 4yo 9-7lbs
OR123 Olivier Peslier 5/2
Bet Now
bay colt Dansili — Penang Pearl (FR) (Bering)


3 YOUMZAIN 7yo 9-7lbs
OR117 Richard Hughes 14/1
M Channon
bay horse Sinndar (IRE) — Sadima (IRE) (Sadler´s Wells (USA))


4 DAR RE MI 5yo 9-4lbs 16/1
OR120 William Buick
J H M Gosden
bay mare Singspiel (IRE) — Darara (Top Ville)


5 DARYAKANA 4yo 9-4lbs 16/1
OR116 Gerald Mosse
A De Royer-Dupre
chestnut filly Selkirk (USA) — Daryaba (IRE) (Night Shift (USA))


6 CAPE BLANCO 3yo 8-9lbs 13/2
OR119 C O'Donoghue
A P O´Brien
chestnut colt Galileo (IRE) — Laurel Delight (Presidium)


7 WORKFORCE 3yo 8-9lbs Evs
OR128 Ryan Moore
Sir Michael Stoute56
bay colt King´s Best (USA) — Soviet Moon (IRE) (Sadler´s Wells (USA))



Race Card

Nulty

Theres only 7 runners now - bastards! I have Dar Re Mi ew @ 14/1. Now shes 16/1 and theres only two places. Lets hope she goes and wins aye?

SMS will be a tough nut to crack. He had the 1-2-3 in the race last year. He loves the race.

Harbinger has it all to do, in G1 company for the first time. Won the G2 Hadwicke ove Course and Distance where the form has been franked but still not at G1 level. Seems to have a very good winning chance judging by the ease of that win.

Workforce record time winner of the Derby is unexposed and in the care of SMS could be a world beater. Taking on the older generation for the first time here at a very short price. Some say the short straight at Acsot won't be to his advantage.

Daryakana was being touted for the Arc last year but has been beaten in both her starts this year finishing behind Youmzain in the last.

Youmzain is the bridesmaid too often and while runnning consistently has only got his nose in front once in the last 4 years albeit runnning at the top level everytime.

Dar Re Mi is a proven G1 performer and won the Dubai Sheema Classic G1 in Dubai over 1m4f in March. The form has been let down and she ran a poor race on her come back with the race not run to suit.

Confront is a G2 performer at best and will struggle againt a field of G1 horses. price reflects this but is still in the race with somesort of chance - if all the others don't "turn up".

Cape Blanco beat the Even money favorite Workforce in the Dante. Both has excuses that day with the bit slipping on Workforce and Cape Blanco coming back very lame. Since then Workforce broike the track record at Epsom and Cape Blanco disappointed in France over 1m2f but bounced back in the Irish Derby. The form of that race is questionable but he beat wht he had in front of him that day. He beat Workforce on a very sharp track at Chester and the straight at Ascot may give him a better chance than if the race were at Epsom or the likes.


Enjoy the race! Its gonna be a cracker

scopper

I spread out some free bets all over this (2e on Confront as a free bet would surely be one of the best wins ever ). As for the rest a couple of euro spread across the field but fully expect Harbinger or Workforce to bring it in. I'll decide those bets later depending on how today goes. Certainly one of the better races in a bit. Thanks for these posts. I really enjoy reading posts from people who know a thing or two especially if you are a learner like myself!

Nulty

Theres so much more that could be said about each horse but I want to keep it short and sweet.

I couldn't possibly give a prediction on their finishing positions. other than Confront wont be in the first three. I think the favorite is too short and so there's value in the other prices. the 7 runners muck that up an awful lot.

on collateral form though the priceslook about right now other than the price of the favorite - was odds on 5/6 at one stage!

scopper

Well I think these are the kinds of races where one can make the best use of the free bets. For instance I waited a while before using my free Stan James bet but I'll prolly put 30e on Worksforce (evens) just to cover my free bets over at Betback. All in all this will cost me nothing though I stand to either gain little (or break even) or do quite well. Then again this is what the game is all about though it is nicer when you are not risking extra money. In fact I'd prolly not bother putting money down due to the 7 runners were it not for the free bets.

But I'll enjoy watching it for sure from the non-gambling point of view.

Nulty

to be honest, these are the types of races that if you didn't get an angle before the runners/no of runners are declared - its a non-betting event. the value is gone from each runner. Their prices are basically favouring the bookmaker and that makes it difficult to make a long term profit. That is unless your of the opinion that Workforce would win the race 600 times if it were run 1000 times. Your on to a winner then.

As you say scopper, these races are there for enjoyment mostly. I hope its as good a race as it looks. But I fear that the anticipation of the race will be greater than the event. Who wouldn't love to see a 3-way photo finish?

x PyRo

IMO, Workforce is a MASSIVE price at Even money. He'll be carrying a serious amount of my cash.

Nulty

Tom Segal thinks so too PyRo. He looks a good thing alright, I might cover the win part of my ew stake on Dar Re Mi with a bet on Workforce. He will surely be odds on on the day. Ante post odds on betting is insane though

x PyRo

Just placed one of my biggest ever bets on him @ Even money.

Jumping on the bandwagon FTW.

scopper

x PyRo wrote: »

Just placed one of my biggest ever bets on him @ Even money.

Jumping on the bandwagon FTW.

In that case good luck! I'm always cautious when it comes to this kind of thing 'if it sounds too good to be true etc.' I'm taking the Nulty route and using Workforce to cover some punts courtesy of some free bets I've earned. But if you win big you'll get a hat tip from me

UrbanSea

x PyRo wrote: »

IMO, Workforce is a MASSIVE price at Even money. He'll be carrying a serious amount of my cash.

I'm thinking the same. Have some money to collect in Celtic this morning and might just put it all on him.

UrbanSea

I just looked at the race card there. I forgot Johnny Murtagh was banned,that makes it even more appealing to me.

Trafford Lad

Dar Re Mi out:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/other_sports/horse_racing/8836733.stm

And was thinking of backing her EW, not sure now might just have a small win bet €10 or €15 on Cape Blanco.

Warper

x PyRo wrote: »

Just placed one of my biggest ever bets on him @ Even money.

Jumping on the bandwagon FTW.

I dont know, he has done nothing bar in the Derby (which may sounds silly) but that was a strange race with a donkey finishing second. He broke the track record but at shades of odds-on he doesnt really appeal as a banker. 3 yr olds have a horrible record for the past 8 or nine years. Granted there is no superstar opposing him but the French horse, Daryakana makes most appeal @ 16-1. French fillies have been all the rage the past few seasons with immortals like Goldikova and Zarkava. 16-1 in a 6 horse race looks sweet. Might get hammered but too big a price too ignore.

longshotvalue

Warper wrote: »

I dont know, he has done nothing bar in the Derby (which may sounds silly) but that was a strange race with a donkey finishing second. He broke the track record but at shades of odds-on he doesnt really appeal as a banker. 3 yr olds have a horrible record for the past 8 or nine years. Granted there is no superstar opposing him but the French horse, Daryakana makes most appeal @ 16-1. French fillies have been all the rage the past few seasons with immortals like Goldikova and Zarkava. 16-1 in a 6 horse race looks sweet. Might get hammered but too big a price too ignore.

^^^^^^^^^^^

Just about to post the that one might be the answer, must have another look.. Might be a race for watching now rather than betting on..

TheMilkyPirate

Really really like workforce tomorrow, With dar re mi out the only threats i see are daryakana and cape blanco. Youmzain is the eternal bridesmaid while harbinger is unproven at the level and too short in the market.

I think workforce has improved past cape blanco and should reverse dante form with him well i hope he does anyway!

Just wish i had the funds to go large

UrbanSea

I'm hesitant about backing Workforce now,with the stable in such dire form.

skeleton_boy

Have €30 on Workforce at evens. Biggest bet on a horse in a while but as stated evens just looks far too big not to lump on.

NaiveMelodies

Im thinking of a Workforce-Cape Blanco 1-2

Can't see past Workforce, although i think Cape Blanco might make a big impact, and would have an even better shout had Murtagh been on board!

I'll throw 100 on Workforce, and 25 on the forecast

mailburner

seems the whole world is on workforce and i can see why.
my moneys on harbinger as ive followed the horse for more
than a year now.
It does look a big ask for him but it was still hard not to
be impressed with its last win and the horses behind
him that day have franked the form

MikeHunt08

Anybody fancy Confront on an EW bet? Maybe worth a small bet?. Other then that. Can't decide who will win it between Cape Blanco and Workforce. Everyone seems to be on Workforce but Cape Blanco has the beating of him. Reverse forecast maybe?

UrbanSea

MikeHunt08 wrote: »

Anybody fancy Confront on an EW bet? Maybe worth a small bet?. Other then that. Can't decide who will win it between Cape Blanco and Workforce. Everyone seems to be on Workforce but Cape Blanco has the beating of him. Reverse forecast maybe?

Na Confront will be a pace maker,and remember,there will only be two places.

applehunter

Workforce now odds on.

Seen more conclusive odds on shots in my time.

One to watch I think.

coughlan08

Hail "Workforce", full of grace.
Our money is with you.
Blessed are you among all horses,
and blessed is the money that is on your back.
Amen

Juwwi

boylesports have workforce 5/2 to win by over 1 1/2 lenghts.

seems good value to for anyone who fancys him but does'nt want to take a short price.

l did it and also did him just to win.

skeleton_boy

Evens looks pretty juicy now. 8/11 and could get shorter!

Colonel Sanders

Harbinger is weak as water on Betfair

Oat23

Lets go workforce

Oat23

5th f**king place.

Bastard horse.

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

seems the whole world is on workforce and i can see why.
my moneys on harbinger as ive followed the horse for more
than a year now.
It does look a big ask for him but it was still hard not to
be impressed with its last win and the horses behind
him that day have franked the form

wow!

amazing
what a horse

UrbanSea

What a performance. Workforce was ****e. Cape Blanco didn't disgrace itself.

Colonel Sanders

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Harbinger is weak as water on Betfair

The horse didn't know about the drift

Super performance

Nulty

wow

x PyRo

Ryan Moore is an idiot. Wouldn't of won regardless but Moore ruined his chances, keeping 1 length away from the pacemaker, WOW.

Nulty

Anyone think Workforce will pay heavily for the Derby win? Just specualating but on the looks of things, he could turn out like Grundy. Maybe never win another race?

x PyRo wrote: »

Ryan Moore is an idiot. Wouldn't of won regardless but Moore ruined his chances, keeping 1 length away from the pacemaker, WOW.

No, there was no horse there for him. He'd never have beaten Harbinger today. No matter what jockey was on.

scopper

Well I imagine that was a bit of a shocker for many. I'm covered on this and something never felt right about how much faith was being put into Workforce. Pretty much every time you get that kind of buzz you should think something ain't rite!

x PyRo

Nulty wrote: »

No, there was no horse there for him. He'd never have beaten Harbinger today. No matter what jockey was on.

I said he wouldn't of beaten him, but it was a shocking ride. He should of covered him up on the rail instead of having him outside Cape Blanco. The horse never traveled comfortably at all.

Nulty

The ride has nothing to do with it. I have no idea why you think it was so bad. He was one off the rail and who knows what would have happened if he was nearer the back, he may not have beaten Confront home. You can't slate Moore for that. It wouldn't have made a difference if he was ready for the race in my opinion.

I lost a wad too by the way

x PyRo

Nulty wrote: »

The ride has nothing to do with it. I have no idea why you think it was so bad. He was one off the rail and who knows what would have happened if he was nearer the back, he may not have beaten Confront home. You can't slate Moore for that. It wouldn't have made a difference if he was ready for the race in my opinion.

I lost a wad too by the way

Yes it does, the horse never switched off, just like Canford Cliffs, he needs to be covered up until the last half mile or so. It's either Moore or Stoutes tactics that are at fault. No way is he 17 odd lengths worse than Harbinger! He should of been covered up to switch off and run on late, not this stupid attempt to keep him up with the pace. Talking through my pocket but I can't believe that Workforce was ran to the best of his abilities there and I think Moore should of known what to do.

Nulty

x PyRo wrote: »

Yes it does, the horse never switched off, just like Canford Cliffs, he needs to be covered up until the last half mile or so. It's either Moore or Stoutes tactics that are at fault. No way is he 17 odd lengths worse than Harbinger! He should of been covered up to switch off and run on late, not this stupid attempt to keep him up with the pace. Talking through my pocket but I can't believe that Workforce was ran to the best of his abilities there and I think Moore should of known what to do.

Both his maiden and Derby were cover-up rides, but so was the Dante. He lost in a small Dante field and in a small King George field. I prefer to blame the Derby and what it took out of him on just his 3rd race. I see where your coming from with his position in the race, its an angle but not the strongest.

UrbanSea

I thought he was a bit too near the pace like Pyro said,and I didn't back it. So was Cape Blanco,they went at it as if it was a two horse race. In fairness to Cape Blanco he kept second place. Workforce still the better horse?

Colonel Sanders

I know Workforce broke the track record in the Derby, however time guru Nick Mordin raised doubts about him after the race:

The winner WORKFORCE (41) actually broke the course record, and he certainly looked good by picking up a lot of ground and charging seven lengths clear. But I’ve spent ages comparing the sectional and final times of the Derby with the other races on the card and can’t find a way to rate it anything better than a solid Group 1 performance. My suspicion is that the huge rail movements they often make at Epsom had more to do with breaking the record than his level of ability.

Workforce could prove to be as good as a lot of people now seem to be rating him. But right now I can only rank him as one of the top half dozen or so three year olds.

One thing that makes me a little dubious of the hype now gathering behind Workforce is his rather uncoordinated action. He raises his knees a little too high to be a firm ground specialist and doesn’t have the smooth, flowing stride you’d expect of a top flight performer. I honestly thought he would never handle the gradients or the fast ground at Epsom. The fact that he managed to do so doesn’t dispel the obvious concerns about his stride pattern. He hits the ground a little too hard for my liking and I just wonder if he’ll stay sound. In addition let’s not forget his key rivals all had problems and he was left to beat a mere pacemaker into second.

I thought Workforce was a bit skinny at odds on but didn't get involved in the race. I never write horses off after just 1 bad run and hopefully he gets back on track later in this season or next

Nulty

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

I know Workforce broke the track record in the Derby, however time guru Nick Mordin raised doubts about him after the race:



I thought Workforce was a bit skinny at odds on but didn't get involved in the race. I never write horses off after just 1 bad run and hopefully he gets back on track later in this season or next

Thats something I was looking at before the race. His action is very pronounced. Very, for a fast ground horse. It makes him look like a big galloper but really hes just lifting his legs unusually high.

SRFC

yeah Ryan Moore (champion jock) is an ''idiot''

stop pocket talking get over it horse wasnt good enough

stoute the scumbag not giving fallon the ride

applehunter

SRFC wrote: »

stoute the scumbag not giving fallon the ride

Stoute is a total gent.

He owes Fallon nothing.

x PyRo

applehunter wrote: »

Stoute is a total gent.

Couldn't find a nicer and more humble man in racing.

mailburner

applehunter wrote: »

Stoute is a total gent.

He owes Fallon nothing.

that's a fact

that same can't be said about fallon though

SRFC

only rides out for him 3 days a week

then he puts the frog up on the horse

hes a great bloke isnt he

UrbanSea

The form is so inconsistent this year. I know Harbinger won it very easily,but I think he'll still have to prove himself at another Group 1. As low as evens for the Arc is ridiculous.

Juwwi

SRFC wrote: »

only rides out for him 3 days a week

then he puts the frog up on the horse

hes a great bloke isnt he

Maybe the owners did'nt want a cheat riding their horse.

UrbanSea

robbie1977 wrote: »

Maybe the owners did'nt want a cheat riding their horse.

And Peslier is one of the best jockeys in the world.
And he did ride for Stoute in the previous two King Georges,finishing second and third. It's clear that he was the right man for the job.