the recession sadists

thebaz

certain economists and commentators (Vincent Browne / Matt Cooper) seam to take a certain peculiar pleasure out of informing us how we are economically doomed , how the recession is going to last for 20 years , and the severity of it all , GDP's, debt , IMF ..... I can't take it any more ... next time i listen to Vincent Browne or Matt Cooper I'm going to triple my dose of prozac ....... thank God for apres match

all things in life change including booms and recessions

gu10

I lick you, Belinda. The Ninja made a movement

Jesus Wept

It'll grand Baz.

alwaysadub

Why don't you just not listen to Matt Cooper or Vincent Browne, and save yourself the money you'd spend for Valium..

ElaElaElano

Well you can look at Matt Cooper and Vincent Browne as pessimistic doom mongers, or as intelligent, realistic commentators who say as they see. Depends on your own point of view.

Personally I quite like them both, if you don't take alwaysadub's advice and switch off- being angry at angry people is a bit ironic.

bleg

One of my friends doesn't know what NAMA is and generally doesn't know anything about the governance of this country. I'd love to be as ignorant as him.

Yakult

gu10 wrote: »

I lick you, Belinda. The Ninja made a movement

fonecrusher1

R_H_C_P wrote: »

say what you want but its true.;)

Everyone that knows me would probably put me in the recession sadist category..
if such a thing existed..

bnt

Deleted User wrote: »

Everyone that knows me would probably put me in the recession sadist category..
if such a thing existed..

Likewise. I'm on record as saying, back in 2006, that the housing price situation was insane, because it had gone so far beyond what people's salaries. A friend of mine bought a flat with a zero-interest loan, which he had to explain to me and which had me going "no f-ing way" a minute later. He's been lucky, but my mistake was thinking that it was only a housing bubble, and not an "everything including the kitchen sink" bubble.

PeterIanStaker

I'm not sure if I'm phrasing this correctly, I'm quite tired just came off a night shift, but Browne is usually quite good, although Cooper I haven't heard him enough to make a decision.

Einhard

All the masochists come crawling out of the wood work in a recession. Before we had even technically experienced negative growth some commentators were announcing that we were in a recession, and now that we are out of/emerging from the recession, they plug their fingers in their ears and insist on refusing to acknowledge ANY positive, of which there are a few. In fairness though, it's not just commentators; a good proportion of Irish society seem intent on fixating on the negative whilst ignoring more cheerful news. It wouldn't be so bad except consumer confidence is essential for further growth, and it's not helped by relentlessly gloomy prognostications.

kuntboy

Einhard wrote: »

All the masochists come crawling out of the wood work in a recession. Before we had even technically experienced negative growth some commentators were announcing that we were in a recession, and now that we are out of/emerging from the recession, they plug their fingers in their ears and insist on refusing to acknowledge ANY positive, of which there are a few. In fairness though, it's not just commentators; a good proportion of Irish society seem intent on fixating on the negative whilst ignoring more cheerful news. It wouldn't be so bad except consumer confidence is essential for further growth, and it's not helped by relentlessly gloomy prognostications.

We are only "technically out of recession" because of a slight increase in GDP due to a low euro increasing multinational pharma companies repatriated profits being laundered through us. GNP has actually dropped.
Stop believing the spin. You sound like Cowen.

Domestic consumer confidence is fukced because everyone's broke and all the talking up in the world wont change that. They're right about the 20 years, just face it.

Einhard

kuntboy wrote: »

We are only "technically out of recession" because of a slight increase in GDP due to a low euro increasing multinational pharma companies repatriated profits being laundered through us. GNP has actually dropped.
Stop believing the spin. You sound like Cowen.

Domestic consumer confidence is fukced because everyone's broke and all the talking up in the world wont change that. They're right about the 20 years, just face it.

And you sound like a kuntboy.

I'm well aware of the depths of the economic trough that we're in, and am under no illusion as to where the blame lies. Indeed, unlike a fair proportion of those who like to portray themselves as die hard anti-FF's , I've never actually voted for that party.

It might be a bit much for you to understand, but recognising the odd, tiny positive light against the almost unremitting backdrop of recessionary gloom, is not in any way endorsing the government. And the fact is, there are some positives. We are, as you yourself admitted, technically out of recession. Which, to my mind, is better then technically in recession. You see my point? And, as far as I'm aware, the multi-nationals who are responsible for the increase in GDP are part of this economy. Growth which takes their sales into account may indeed be contextualised, but shouldn't be dismissed because commentators wish to dismiss the growth altogether.

Also, the latest figures have shown an increase in consumer spending. Admittedly, the bulk of this is in new car sales, but even so, given that new cars are generally not a necessity, this is good news for the economy. Furthermore, sales in home furnishings and the like also saw a small increase. Again, these can be branded luxury goods in the context of a recession. Altogether, the figures point to a small upswing in consumer confidence.

Now, I look at a positive and see it as positive. You look at the positive and seek out the negative. If you wish to wallow in the negative news and ignore all other forecasts and statistics, so be it. Perhaps you're of a general melancholic disposition. Perhaps you hate FF so much that you're unwilling to contemplate any positives on their watch*. I don't really know. But to ignore any evidence contrary to your own viewpoint leads to an outlook which is subjective, skewed, and ultimately incorrect. And labelling anyone who accepts the evidence for what it is as part of some FF fifth column doesn't change that. It just makes you come across as arrogant and condescending, and not all that well informed.






* An entirely understandable stance.

Caoimhín

The reality is, you can call it what you want, rescession/depression/down turn etc,but where were now is simply the default status for Ireland.

What we had from 2000 2009 was nothing more than a surge in growth due to increased credit globaly, this led to increased/reckless lending by the banks which led to house buying mania (a classic asset bubble). This will not happen again for a generation (if ever) but the ***** in the dail and those with vested interests in banking and selling houses just keep telling us that it is just a sudded blip and we will be back to normal soon.

Unfortunatly people, what we have here is what we are stuck with for good. Sure, we will technically come out of recession (growth of 1 or 3 % led by the multi-nationals) but people will have to understand that we will not be going back to 2006 levels of enployment and house prices.

We are in Irelands default status, get used to it.

Einhard

Caoimhín wrote: »

The reality is, you csn csll it what you want, rescession/depression/down turn etc,but where were now is simply the default status for Ireland.

What we had from 2000 2009 was nothing more than a surge in growth due to increased credit globaly, this led to increased/reckless lending by the banks which led to house buying mania (a classic asset bubble). This will not happen again for a generation (if ever) but the ***** in the dail and those with vested interests in banking and selling houses just keep telling us that it is just a sudded blip and we will be back to normal soon.

Unfortunatly people, what we have here is what we are stuck with for good. Sure, we will technically come out of recession (growth of 1 or 3 % led by the multi-nationals) but people will have to understand that we will not be going back to 2006 levels of enployment and house prices.

We are in Irelands default status, get used to it.

Can't say I agree with you there Caoimhin. Sure, we're unlikely to get back to the levels of prosperity of 2004-2007, but considering that was built on unsustainable housing and credit bubbles, that's a good thing in my opinion. I think we'll eventually get back to moderate growth, but it will take a while for consumer confidence to come back to a level which equates to increased domestic spending and employment growth. Within the medium term, I'd expect to see unemployment gradually fall, and the economy do reasonably well again. 3-% annual growth is what we need, anything more would fuel inflation and risk another bubble. If we manage to learn from our mistakes(which were societal, not just political or those of the banks), keep costs down relative to our competitors, I'd be quite optimistic for our economic prospects in the medium to long term.

Caoimhín

Einhard wrote: »

and the economy do reasonably well again. 3-% annual growth is what we need, anything more would fuel inflation and risk another bubble..

There is the problem, the muppets in charge believe that the only way to get things moving again is to re-inflate the property bubble, prop up the banks and wait for the international recovery. Considering the state is bankrupt this is a big hope.

Nothing has been learned, at best we are set to go through this boom bust cycle for generations.

It is amazing to see some TD's calling for debt forgivness for those in negative equity and at the same time Frank Fahy FF TD (owns 40 houses) saying that now is the time to buy a house, never been a better time and it is all the big bad banks fault.

While we elect these muppets because they might be able to pull a stroke or get us that new football clubhouse in the parish we are f**ked.

Anyway, im being brought in for spine surgery so i will get back to this later.

FlutterinBantam

Let's get back on topic and examine the OPs post.

Why do Browne and Cooper et al, plough the furrow of doom and gloom and economic winter ad nauseum?

Because is helps their programmes, that's why.

Gains listeners and gets the attention of people.

Unfortunate events in the UK and Donegal have proved that bad news or events sells more newsprint than good news.

You may not like it, I don't like it ,but human nature being human nature ,unfortunately it's by and large true.


Nothing beats bad news, bad outlook, disasters, to sell papers or get peoples attention.


So now you know;)

Kasabian

Vincent Browne is a hen.

George Orwell 1982

Kasabian wrote: »

Vincent Browne is a hen.

Or a cock?

mathie

Einhard wrote: »

Within the medium term, I'd expect to see unemployment gradually fall, and the economy do reasonably well again.

What are your reasons for expecting unemployment to gradually fall?
The ESRI predicts an increase in the short term (http://www.recruiter.co.uk/esri-predicts-unemployment-rise-in-ireland/1006237.article).

Einhard wrote: »

If we manage to learn from our mistakes(which were societal, not just political or those of the banks), keep costs down relative to our competitors, I'd be quite optimistic for our economic prospects in the medium to long term.

No. The mistakes were mostly the fault of poor financial regulation and government cronyism, the Golden Circle and all that jazz.
Do you genuinely think for one second that these people will learn from their mistakes?
I'd love to believe that but up to this point in history those in power in this country have proven themselves to be out for themselves and not the people.

cson

Jesus Christ.

/vincent browne

moonpurple

germany was rubble in 1949

so are we
it is time to be more german than irish

after all we once were british

things change:pac:

thebaz

kuntboy wrote: »

We are only "technically out of recession" because of a slight increase in GDP due to a low euro increasing multinational pharma companies repatriated profits being laundered through us. GNP has actually dropped.
Stop believing the spin. You sound like Cowen.

Domestic consumer confidence is fukced because everyone's broke and all the talking up in the world wont change that. They're right about the 20 years, just face it.

if the recession was to last 20 years we might as well shut down most schools and universities bar one or 2 for the very bright - that would save a fortune - why would people need an education if they cant get a job - like the over blown hype about the Celtic tiger in 2005 - the recession will end - and as someone else said lets praise the odd shoots of recovery rather than honing in persistently on the negativity

Liam Byrne

thebaz wrote: »

.....as someone else said lets praise the odd shoots of recovery rather than honing in persistently on the negativity

I hope that wasn't one of Ahern's phrases when he objected to so-called negativity, which was actually just a shot of realism that was inconvenient for FF to acknowledge ?

NothingMan

bleg wrote: »

One of my friends doesn't know what NAMA is and generally doesn't know anything about the governance of this country. I'd love to be as ignorant as him.

I'm just like him. No idea who Vincent Browne is, I know the name Matt Cooper but that's about it. I never watch, read or listen to the news. I figure if something's worth hearing about someone will post about it on AH and the bad news can be cushioned by some fart jokes (I'm very disappointed Flutterinbantam's didn't mention poop btw). It's a great way to be. I know there must be something wrong with the country but all I know is, I have a decent job, a nice lady and lots of money for beer. Is there anything more important that that?

ejmaztec

thebaz wrote: »

if the recession was to last 20 years we might as well shut down most schools and universities bar one or 2 for the very bright - that would save a fortune - why would people need an education if they cant get a job - like the over blown hype about the Celtic tiger in 2005 - the recession will end - and as someone else said lets praise the odd shoots of recovery rather than honing in persistently on the negativity

Is that you Vincent?


We're all feckin dooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooomed:eek:

kuntboy

I'm all for seeing hope, but I wont believe spin and delusion.

Maybe we can borrow some money from Anglo to pay for all these new foreign cars and furnishings. Sure someone will bail us out if we "think positive" enough.

mike65

Over 1200 new positions announced this week and no one gives a damn! Boo-hoo!

dvpower

Einhard wrote: »

Admittedly, the bulk of this is in new car sales, but even so, given that new cars are generally not a necessity, this is good news for the economy.

New car sales are up because of the scrappage scheme. This is just bringing forward this spending from future years. As soon as the scrappage scheme is over, car sales will dry up again, as has been happening in other juristictions.

rubensni

moonpurple wrote: »

germany was rubble in 1949

so are we
it is time to be more german than irish

after all we once were british

things change:pac:

What are you smoking? "We" were never British. Ireland was part of a United Kingdom with Britain, never part of Britain.

As for your love of Germany, remember West Germany got billions of dollars in Marshall aid from the US after the war to rebuild its economy. It didn't just go from broke to boom because of some German uniqueness. Look at how poor the old East Germany was (and still is) compared to W. Germany.

mike65

East Germans were kept poor and backward by communism though. Its hardly a surprise the two are still as far apart as they are even 20 years after unification. It would be a bit like expecting Darndale to be Foxrock after the so called Celtic Tiger boom.

goose2005

thebaz wrote: »

certain economists and commentators (Vincent Browne / Matt Cooper) seam to take a certain peculiar pleasure out of informing us how we are economically doomed , how the recession is going to last for 20 years , and the severity of it all , GDP's, debt , IMF ..... I can't take it any more ... next time i listen to Vincent Browne or Matt Cooper I'm going to triple my dose of prozac ....... thank God for apres match

all things in life change including booms and recessions

Hi Bertie, haven't heard from you in ages.

Einhard wrote: »

All the masochists come crawling out of the wood work in a recession. Before we had even technically experienced negative growth some commentators were announcing that we were in a recession, and now that we are out of/emerging from the recession, they plug their fingers in their ears and insist on refusing to acknowledge ANY positive, of which there are a few. In fairness though, it's not just commentators; a good proportion of Irish society seem intent on fixating on the negative whilst ignoring more cheerful news. It wouldn't be so bad except consumer confidence is essential for further growth, and it's not helped by relentlessly gloomy prognostications.

We are not "out of recession", we dropped a lot and then rose a tiny bit. If you lose your job on Monday and you find a fiver on the ground on Tuesday, you can't really say "Things are looking up!"

zuutroy

goose2005 wrote: »

We are not "out of recession", we dropped a lot and then rose a tiny bit.

Which would be a to-the-letter definition of emergence from recession!

TheSpecialOne

Didn't our former Dear leader Mr Ahern make similar comments when the crash was impending,you cannot believe the Government spin.Just look at GNP which is the real measure of an economy not GDP which includes the multi-national company's who repatriate their profits.The Country is in deep trouble and there is no point in Vincent Brown or anyone trying to tell us otherwise so therefore they talk about the problems and whether the problems have been made worse by government policy e.g. Bank guarantee etc..

fontanalis

Reality can be a b1tch