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ESRI: Jobless recovery - 120,000 to emigrate by end 2011

  • 14-07-2010 01:32AM
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,021 ✭✭✭


    From today's Irish Times:
    120,000 expected to emigrate by end of 2011, says report

    DAN O'BRIEN, Economics Editor

    Wed, Jul 14, 2010


    THE NUMBER of people leaving Ireland this year and next is predicted to reach 120,000, according to the Economic and Social Research Institute.

    The research body makes the prediction in its latest economic forecast, published this morning, which also concludes that the economy is recovering faster than it previously thought. The stronger momentum behind the recovery is reflected in the ESRI’s outlook for the jobs market in 2010, when the number of people out of work is now expected to average 285,700. This is 8,000 fewer than anticipated by the institute three months ago.

    However, for 2011, it does not anticipate stronger economic growth feeding into demand for labour. The numbers of those jobless and in employment are expected to remain broadly unchanged on 2010.

    The ESRI advocates shifting available resources away from spending on infrastructure towards aiding the unemployed to retrain and find new jobs. This approach would generate more employment creation, it believes. This year and next, the economy will perform better than anticipated just three months ago, according to the ESRI.

    Having incorporated into its analysis economic indicators available since April, the institute now believes that gross domestic product (GDP) will expand marginally in 2010 before growing by 2.75 per cent in 2011.

    Three months ago, it had expected GDP to shrink this year and grow by a slightly more modest rate of 2.5 per cent in 2011.

    Despite its more upbeat view on the economy’s prospects, the institute warns in its Quarterly Economic Commentary that “the short-term prospects for the Irish economy continue to be precarious”.

    It identified risks to the recovery coming from a possible lapse back into recession in major trading partners and renewed turmoil in the financial system domestically and internationally.

    The most eye-catching change to the institute’s forecasts since its last report three months ago was a large expected increase in the Government’s budget deficit in 2010.

    In April, the think tank had expected a shortfall in revenues over spending of 12 per cent of GDP. It now believes this figure will reach almost 20 per cent, far above the 14.3 per cent registered in 2009. This all but guarantees that Ireland will run the largest deficit in the 27-member EU for the second consecutive year.

    The changed forecast follows a decision in late April by Eurostat, the EU’s statistics agency, to classify as expenditure, rather than investment, money given to Anglo Irish Bank to prevent its collapse. As the ESRI sees no reason why even larger forthcoming payments, of €12.9 billion, to Anglo Irish and Irish Nationwide would be treated any differently by Eurostat, it felt obliged to reflect this in its forecasts.

    The institute made clear that this accounting reclassification was the sole reason for its changed deficit forecast and that the underlying budgetary position for 2010 is stabilising as anticipated in its previous forecast.

    Dr Alan Barrett, co-author of the report, acknowledged the risk that the revelation of such a large deficit could unsettle international markets upon which the Government depends to fund its deficits.

    The ESRI maintained its strong support for Government plans to reduce its underlying budget deficit, citing the “vagaries of market sentiment on our sovereign debt” in the wake of Greece’s bailout.

    It does not, however, suggest that harsh deficit reduction measures are without their own costs. It estimates that planned spending cuts and tax increases will reduce growth in the economy in 2011 by one percentage point.

    Joan Burton, Labour’s spokeswoman on finance, said the predictions “confirms the scale of the jobs challenge facing Ireland, and the urgent need for a jobs strategy”.

    Fine Gael finance spokesman Michael Noonan said the Government had “to make job creation and protection an absolute priority”.

    © 2010 The Irish Times

    Based on the 2006 Census, 120,000 people is just over 2.8% of the population. That's around 1 in 34 people.

    Well done Cowen, Lenihan, Coughlan and Co. - it worked. Your buddies have been bailed out by NAMA, while the rest of the country has to put up, shut up, or feck off abroad.

    Well done indeed.


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,308 ✭✭✭Ricardo G


    Shame, as i often wonder how many of these imigrants are going to return to Ireland, mate of mine went to Oz last year, met a young lady and now have a baby boy so he is now settled there. Happy for him but no prospect of work here for the foreseeable future for him !


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,353 ✭✭✭✭jimmycrackcorm


    I don't know what to say. This is no different than the 50's through to the 80's unless there is some sort of new expectation that reverses the laws of economics.

    Why does this generation think things should be different than the prior generations?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 542 ✭✭✭cleremy jarkson


    Why does this generation think things should be different than the prior generations?

    Personally, I don't. But my generation has grown up taking for granted that they would be able to get, not only ANY job, but a job of their LIKING, in Ireland. It's not our fault that we grew up during a time of great abundance in comparison to previous generations of Irish people; in fact I feel bad that we did because it gives those in their 40s etc a legitimate opportunity to give out to us for having had things so easy and we can't really say anything!
    I cringe when I hear people in their 20s going on about how tough the recession is. They really have not got their perspective in tune with reality.

    Emigrating is not even that bad...flights are much cheaper, relatively, than they were in the 80s and even if they didn't fancy emigrating, the dole is pretty high (for those 25 or over) and if a person can't live a dignified existence on it then they're doing something wrong. I get the feeling though that my generation don't feel too annoyed about the thought of emigrating...probably because it's not quite as forced as it was back in the 50's or even the 80's ie. if things go belly up, they can go home relatively cheaply and claim the dole.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,353 ✭✭✭✭jimmycrackcorm


    Jeremy has written the detail to my synopsis in a very eloquent manner. I myself was fortunate in the last recession that I didn't actually have to emigrate, however I had assumed all along that I would end up having too as did my fellow students. The difference was that we didn't have anyone to blame for it. It was the accepted way things were.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭gurramok


    Coupled with an alleged 100,000 who emigrated in the couple of years before 2010, thats a big population drop of mostly adults.

    This and together with throwing the unemployed on back to education courses and FAS courses is how FF supporters say that 'unemployment is stabilising'.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,305 ✭✭✭yoshytoshy


    It's terrible whats happening in the construction industry at the moment.
    Unemployed people are doing two day courses and then going out to work for themselves.

    Theres going to be all sorts going on in the next couple of years ,things will get worse.

    The government are joining in on this fiasco and paying training companies. Probably hoping to mask the actual unemployment figures further.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,860 ✭✭✭✭inforfun


    Ricardo G wrote: »
    Shame, as i often wonder how many of these imigrants are going to return to Ireland, mate of mine went to Oz last year, met a young lady and now have a baby boy so he is now settled there. Happy for him but no prospect of work here for the foreseeable future for him !

    Nowhere it says that those 120.000 are all Irish.
    Could be any nationality.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    very worrying. but reports like this do nothing to help the economy. sells more papers tho.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,378 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    froog wrote: »
    very worrying. but reports like this do nothing to help the economy. sells more papers tho.

    Well, I read it here, so I wont be buying the paper, why would anyone buy a paper in a recession? ;)

    Not surprising that people will go abroad. Always have, always will have that choice, I know plenty that went aboard in the "good" times and will probably never come back. There are lots of opportunities out there in larger countries for well qualified people. Many would suggest far more opportunities than in a relatively small country like Ireland. Not condoning the governments running of the country in the past decade or anything like that just trying to put a positive aspect on it.

    The guy with the mate in Oz who now has a child, probably as happy as he has ever been, working, love and a child in his life, sunny weather etc etc.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,019 ✭✭✭who_ru


    i agree with Kippy's point - most people who leave Ireland will in all probability not come back or won't want to for a very long time.



    it is sooooooooooooooooo depressing living in Ireland right now.


    Cowen & Lenihan & the Govt in general merely add to the depressing nature of things on a daily basis.


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  • Posts: 23,497 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    yoshytoshy wrote: »
    It's terrible whats happening in the construction industry at the moment.
    Unemployed people are doing two day courses and then going out to work for themselves.

    Theres going to be all sorts going on in the next couple of years ,things will get worse.

    The government are joining in on this fiasco and paying training companies. Probably hoping to mask the actual unemployment figures further.

    Is there work there ? There were plenty of cowboys out there anyway in the boom, nothing new there.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,252 ✭✭✭FTA69


    Jeremy has written the detail to my synopsis in a very eloquent manner. I myself was fortunate in the last recession that I didn't actually have to emigrate, however I had assumed all along that I would end up having too as did my fellow students. The difference was that we didn't have anyone to blame for it. It was the accepted way things were.

    Well the reason people are emigrating is because a financial and political elite f*cked up the country and then diverted large amounts of national wealth into bailing out their fellow travellers.

    That's something people should be p*ssed off about, not going "yerrah sure that's the way it is." Because that's not the way it has to be.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,445 ✭✭✭BluePlanet


    I remember during the boom years certain FF personalities talking up how great things are, that it's the first time in a long while that irish people didn't have to emigrate.

    Now after they've made a complete balls of things it's the ol "well this is the ways it's been for centuries" :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,378 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    FTA69 wrote: »
    Well the reason people are emigrating is because a financial and political elite f*cked up the country and then diverted large amounts of national wealth into bailing out their fellow travellers.

    That's something people should be p*ssed off about, not going "yerrah sure that's the way it is." Because that's not the way it has to be.

    And what happens, nothing, we all continue to get on with it. No riots in the street (as you would expect).
    What does that tell us? Do we really care enough?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,445 ✭✭✭BluePlanet


    kippy wrote: »
    And what happens, nothing, we all continue to get on with it. No riots in the street (as you would expect).
    What does that tell us? Do we really care enough?
    Riots are ordinarily the result of some catalyst event.
    The steady hemorrhaging jobs is not really providing such an event.

    Coupled with the "i got mine" attitude that still plagues the country.
    I doubt we'll be seeing a good riot unless the OO wants to go marching down O'Connell St again.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 46,938 ✭✭✭✭Nodin


    ....and even that was a fairly low turn out.

    (It wasn't the OO, by the way)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,252 ✭✭✭FTA69


    BluePlanet wrote: »
    I remember during the boom years certain FF personalities talking up how great things are, that it's the first time in a long while that irish people didn't have to emigrate.

    Now after they've made a complete balls of things it's the ol "well this is the ways it's been for centuries" :rolleyes:

    "Sure this island is too small for all of us!"

    kippy,
    And what happens, nothing, we all continue to get on with it. No riots in the street (as you would expect).
    What does that tell us? Do we really care enough?

    It shows that Irish people are demoralised, confused and saddled with a lack of political or industrial action.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,378 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    BluePlanet wrote: »
    Riots are ordinarily the result of some catalyst event.
    The steady hemorrhaging jobs is not really providing such an event.

    Coupled with the "i got mine" attitude that still plagues the country.
    I doubt we'll be seeing a good riot unless the OO wants to go marching down O'Connell St again.

    Most people would think that we've had multiple catalysts for riots or at least very well supported marches in this country. Hell we even still have the same government in place, not 1 single person has been brought up on charges of financial fraud to name but two catalysts.........


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,305 ✭✭✭yoshytoshy


    RoverJames wrote: »
    Is there work there ? There were plenty of cowboys out there anyway in the boom, nothing new there.

    Ah yes ,sure lets vote for fianna fail again ,sure there all as bad as each other:rolleyes:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,836 ✭✭✭donkey balls


    kippy wrote: »
    And what happens, nothing, we all continue to get on with it. No riots in the street (as you would expect).
    What does that tell us? Do we really care enough?

    did anyone hear lenny on the last word yesterday congratulating the Irish people for not taking a stance like the Greeks&Spanish with their protests&riots.
    and that other countries looked to I reland on how we deal with our current problems, there must be something in the water in the dail&senead:rolleyes: these f**kers are living on a different planet ala calley etc:mad:


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,308 ✭✭✭Ricardo G


    inforfun wrote: »
    Nowhere it says that those 120.000 are all Irish.
    Could be any nationality.

    Did i suggest they were all Irish? I was talking about ONE of my friends.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,333 ✭✭✭Zambia


    Every time I hear these figures in the Irish press I chuckle a bit.

    Emigration is not just the process of getting on a boat anymore. The reports always leave out where these people are going.

    Oz/Nz/Canada is a lengthy migration process 12 months if you have the skills. The states is hard to get into at all. Maybe the report should read 120,000 intend to travel to the UK.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,836 ✭✭✭donkey balls


    Zambia232 wrote: »
    Every time I hear these figures in the Irish press I chuckle a bit.

    Emigration is not just the process of getting on a boat anymore. The reports always leave out where these people are going.

    Oz/Nz/Canada is a lengthy migration process 12 months if you have the skills. The states is hard to get into at all. Maybe the report should read 120,000 intend to travel to the UK.

    i got an e-mail from a company in Canada asking me was i still interested in working them,also have another interveiw some time in august for another company in Canada.
    they reckon they can have your work permit within a couple of weeks only for i have a mortcage i would be gone.


  • Posts: 23,497 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    yoshytoshy wrote: »
    It's terrible whats happening in the construction industry at the moment.
    Unemployed people are doing two day courses and then going out to work for themselves.

    Theres going to be all sorts going on in the next couple of years ,things will get worse.

    The government are joining in on this fiasco and paying training companies. Probably hoping to mask the actual unemployment figures further.
    RoverJames wrote: »
    Is there work there ? There were plenty of cowboys out there anyway in the boom, nothing new there.
    yoshytoshy wrote: »
    Ah yes ,sure lets vote for fianna fail again ,sure there all as bad as each other:rolleyes:


    wtf is your problem, I said f all about Fianna Fail, I simply queried the post about folks doing two day courses and then becoming self employed in the building game, sounded like utter horse sh1t to me. :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,333 ✭✭✭Zambia


    i got an e-mail from a company in Canada asking me was i still interested in working them,also have another interveiw some time in august for another company in Canada.
    they reckon they can have your work permit within a couple of weeks only for i have a mortcage i would be gone.

    Yes but that is you on contract to them, in essence once the contract is up you return. It could be argued you have not migrated your just working away from home.

    It will still count in the figures but what I really mean is people up sticks and leaving in search of better things.

    But thanks for highlighting this.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,836 ✭✭✭donkey balls


    Zambia232 wrote: »
    Yes but that is you on contract to them, in essence once the contract is up you return. It could be argued you have not migrated your just working away from home.

    It will still count in the figures but what I really mean is people up sticks and leaving in search of better things.

    But thanks for highlighting this.

    nope once your there over six months you can apply for residency via the PNP scheme.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,404 ✭✭✭Pittens


    I dont think this is the return of long term emigration: rather Ireland will, as long as it is an open country and as it is a small country, be subject to emigration in recessions and immigration in booms.

    But where are people going? Very few (net) jobs are being created anywhere. Number of Irish accents not noticeably increasing anywhere.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,378 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    Pittens wrote: »
    I dont think this is the return of long term emigration: rather Ireland will, as long as it is an open country and as it is a small country, be subject to emigration in recessions and immigration in booms.

    But where are people going? Very few (net) jobs are being created anywhere. Number of Irish accents not noticeably increasing anywhere.

    Canada, Oz/NZ (on a temporary basis anyway) and the old reliabe, the UK is still surprisingly good for work.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,584 ✭✭✭digme


    kippy wrote: »
    And what happens, nothing, we all continue to get on with it. No riots in the street (as you would expect).
    What does that tell us? Do we really care enough?
    maybe stop your daily trance sessions in front of the tv and talk to people.
    the tv has us all fcked........


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,030 ✭✭✭heyjude


    "The ESRI advocates shifting available resources away from spending on infrastructure towards aiding the unemployed to retrain and find new jobs."

    Retraining for what new jobs, I thought the reason unemployment was 430,000+ was because there were no/very few jobs available, rather than a shortage of qualified workers to fill them.

    Surely more attention should be given to assisting start up companies and helping rather than hindering, the efforts of existing companies to improve competitiveness and retain employment.


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