ESRI: Jobless recovery - 120,000 to emigrate by end 2011

Sulmac

From today's Irish Times:

120,000 expected to emigrate by end of 2011, says report

DAN O'BRIEN, Economics Editor

Wed, Jul 14, 2010

THE NUMBER of people leaving Ireland this year and next is predicted to reach 120,000, according to the Economic and Social Research Institute.

The research body makes the prediction in its latest economic forecast, published this morning, which also concludes that the economy is recovering faster than it previously thought. The stronger momentum behind the recovery is reflected in the ESRI’s outlook for the jobs market in 2010, when the number of people out of work is now expected to average 285,700. This is 8,000 fewer than anticipated by the institute three months ago.

However, for 2011, it does not anticipate stronger economic growth feeding into demand for labour. The numbers of those jobless and in employment are expected to remain broadly unchanged on 2010.

The ESRI advocates shifting available resources away from spending on infrastructure towards aiding the unemployed to retrain and find new jobs. This approach would generate more employment creation, it believes. This year and next, the economy will perform better than anticipated just three months ago, according to the ESRI.

Having incorporated into its analysis economic indicators available since April, the institute now believes that gross domestic product (GDP) will expand marginally in 2010 before growing by 2.75 per cent in 2011.

Three months ago, it had expected GDP to shrink this year and grow by a slightly more modest rate of 2.5 per cent in 2011.

Despite its more upbeat view on the economy’s prospects, the institute warns in its Quarterly Economic Commentary that “the short-term prospects for the Irish economy continue to be precarious”.

It identified risks to the recovery coming from a possible lapse back into recession in major trading partners and renewed turmoil in the financial system domestically and internationally.

The most eye-catching change to the institute’s forecasts since its last report three months ago was a large expected increase in the Government’s budget deficit in 2010.

In April, the think tank had expected a shortfall in revenues over spending of 12 per cent of GDP. It now believes this figure will reach almost 20 per cent, far above the 14.3 per cent registered in 2009. This all but guarantees that Ireland will run the largest deficit in the 27-member EU for the second consecutive year.

The changed forecast follows a decision in late April by Eurostat, the EU’s statistics agency, to classify as expenditure, rather than investment, money given to Anglo Irish Bank to prevent its collapse. As the ESRI sees no reason why even larger forthcoming payments, of €12.9 billion, to Anglo Irish and Irish Nationwide would be treated any differently by Eurostat, it felt obliged to reflect this in its forecasts.

The institute made clear that this accounting reclassification was the sole reason for its changed deficit forecast and that the underlying budgetary position for 2010 is stabilising as anticipated in its previous forecast.

Dr Alan Barrett, co-author of the report, acknowledged the risk that the revelation of such a large deficit could unsettle international markets upon which the Government depends to fund its deficits.

The ESRI maintained its strong support for Government plans to reduce its underlying budget deficit, citing the “vagaries of market sentiment on our sovereign debt” in the wake of Greece’s bailout.

It does not, however, suggest that harsh deficit reduction measures are without their own costs. It estimates that planned spending cuts and tax increases will reduce growth in the economy in 2011 by one percentage point.

Joan Burton, Labour’s spokeswoman on finance, said the predictions “confirms the scale of the jobs challenge facing Ireland, and the urgent need for a jobs strategy”.

Fine Gael finance spokesman Michael Noonan said the Government had “to make job creation and protection an absolute priority”.

© 2010 The Irish Times

Based on the 2006 Census, 120,000 people is just over 2.8% of the population. That's around 1 in 34 people.

Well done Cowen, Lenihan, Coughlan and Co. - it worked. Your buddies have been bailed out by NAMA, while the rest of the country has to put up, shut up, or feck off abroad.

Well done indeed.

Ricardo G

Shame, as i often wonder how many of these imigrants are going to return to Ireland, mate of mine went to Oz last year, met a young lady and now have a baby boy so he is now settled there. Happy for him but no prospect of work here for the foreseeable future for him !

jimmycrackcorm

I don't know what to say. This is no different than the 50's through to the 80's unless there is some sort of new expectation that reverses the laws of economics.

Why does this generation think things should be different than the prior generations?

cleremy jarkson

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Why does this generation think things should be different than the prior generations?

Personally, I don't. But my generation has grown up taking for granted that they would be able to get, not only ANY job, but a job of their LIKING, in Ireland. It's not our fault that we grew up during a time of great abundance in comparison to previous generations of Irish people; in fact I feel bad that we did because it gives those in their 40s etc a legitimate opportunity to give out to us for having had things so easy and we can't really say anything!
I cringe when I hear people in their 20s going on about how tough the recession is. They really have not got their perspective in tune with reality.

Emigrating is not even that bad...flights are much cheaper, relatively, than they were in the 80s and even if they didn't fancy emigrating, the dole is pretty high (for those 25 or over) and if a person can't live a dignified existence on it then they're doing something wrong. I get the feeling though that my generation don't feel too annoyed about the thought of emigrating...probably because it's not quite as forced as it was back in the 50's or even the 80's ie. if things go belly up, they can go home relatively cheaply and claim the dole.

jimmycrackcorm

Jeremy has written the detail to my synopsis in a very eloquent manner. I myself was fortunate in the last recession that I didn't actually have to emigrate, however I had assumed all along that I would end up having too as did my fellow students. The difference was that we didn't have anyone to blame for it. It was the accepted way things were.

gurramok

Coupled with an alleged 100,000 who emigrated in the couple of years before 2010, thats a big population drop of mostly adults.

This and together with throwing the unemployed on back to education courses and FAS courses is how FF supporters say that 'unemployment is stabilising'.

yoshytoshy

It's terrible whats happening in the construction industry at the moment.
Unemployed people are doing two day courses and then going out to work for themselves.

Theres going to be all sorts going on in the next couple of years ,things will get worse.

The government are joining in on this fiasco and paying training companies. Probably hoping to mask the actual unemployment figures further.

inforfun

Ricardo G wrote: »

Shame, as i often wonder how many of these imigrants are going to return to Ireland, mate of mine went to Oz last year, met a young lady and now have a baby boy so he is now settled there. Happy for him but no prospect of work here for the foreseeable future for him !

Nowhere it says that those 120.000 are all Irish.
Could be any nationality.

froog

very worrying. but reports like this do nothing to help the economy. sells more papers tho.

kippy

froog wrote: »

very worrying. but reports like this do nothing to help the economy. sells more papers tho.

Well, I read it here, so I wont be buying the paper, why would anyone buy a paper in a recession?

Not surprising that people will go abroad. Always have, always will have that choice, I know plenty that went aboard in the "good" times and will probably never come back. There are lots of opportunities out there in larger countries for well qualified people. Many would suggest far more opportunities than in a relatively small country like Ireland. Not condoning the governments running of the country in the past decade or anything like that just trying to put a positive aspect on it.

The guy with the mate in Oz who now has a child, probably as happy as he has ever been, working, love and a child in his life, sunny weather etc etc.

who_ru

i agree with Kippy's point - most people who leave Ireland will in all probability not come back or won't want to for a very long time.



it is sooooooooooooooooo depressing living in Ireland right now.


Cowen & Lenihan & the Govt in general merely add to the depressing nature of things on a daily basis.

yoshytoshy

yoshytoshy wrote: »

It's terrible whats happening in the construction industry at the moment.
Unemployed people are doing two day courses and then going out to work for themselves.

Theres going to be all sorts going on in the next couple of years ,things will get worse.

The government are joining in on this fiasco and paying training companies. Probably hoping to mask the actual unemployment figures further.

Is there work there ? There were plenty of cowboys out there anyway in the boom, nothing new there.

FTA69

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Jeremy has written the detail to my synopsis in a very eloquent manner. I myself was fortunate in the last recession that I didn't actually have to emigrate, however I had assumed all along that I would end up having too as did my fellow students. The difference was that we didn't have anyone to blame for it. It was the accepted way things were.

Well the reason people are emigrating is because a financial and political elite f*cked up the country and then diverted large amounts of national wealth into bailing out their fellow travellers.

That's something people should be p*ssed off about, not going "yerrah sure that's the way it is." Because that's not the way it has to be.

BluePlanet

I remember during the boom years certain FF personalities talking up how great things are, that it's the first time in a long while that irish people didn't have to emigrate.

Now after they've made a complete balls of things it's the ol "well this is the ways it's been for centuries" :rolleyes:

kippy

FTA69 wrote: »

Well the reason people are emigrating is because a financial and political elite f*cked up the country and then diverted large amounts of national wealth into bailing out their fellow travellers.

That's something people should be p*ssed off about, not going "yerrah sure that's the way it is." Because that's not the way it has to be.

And what happens, nothing, we all continue to get on with it. No riots in the street (as you would expect).
What does that tell us? Do we really care enough?

BluePlanet

kippy wrote: »

And what happens, nothing, we all continue to get on with it. No riots in the street (as you would expect).
What does that tell us? Do we really care enough?

Riots are ordinarily the result of some catalyst event.
The steady hemorrhaging jobs is not really providing such an event.

Coupled with the "i got mine" attitude that still plagues the country.
I doubt we'll be seeing a good riot unless the OO wants to go marching down O'Connell St again.

Nodin

....and even that was a fairly low turn out.

(It wasn't the OO, by the way)

FTA69

BluePlanet wrote: »

I remember during the boom years certain FF personalities talking up how great things are, that it's the first time in a long while that irish people didn't have to emigrate.

Now after they've made a complete balls of things it's the ol "well this is the ways it's been for centuries" :rolleyes:

"Sure this island is too small for all of us!"

kippy,

And what happens, nothing, we all continue to get on with it. No riots in the street (as you would expect).
What does that tell us? Do we really care enough?

It shows that Irish people are demoralised, confused and saddled with a lack of political or industrial action.

kippy

BluePlanet wrote: »

Riots are ordinarily the result of some catalyst event.
The steady hemorrhaging jobs is not really providing such an event.

Coupled with the "i got mine" attitude that still plagues the country.
I doubt we'll be seeing a good riot unless the OO wants to go marching down O'Connell St again.

Most people would think that we've had multiple catalysts for riots or at least very well supported marches in this country. Hell we even still have the same government in place, not 1 single person has been brought up on charges of financial fraud to name but two catalysts.........

yoshytoshy

RoverJames wrote: »

Is there work there ? There were plenty of cowboys out there anyway in the boom, nothing new there.

Ah yes ,sure lets vote for fianna fail again ,sure there all as bad as each other:rolleyes:

donkey balls

kippy wrote: »

And what happens, nothing, we all continue to get on with it. No riots in the street (as you would expect).
What does that tell us? Do we really care enough?

did anyone hear lenny on the last word yesterday congratulating the Irish people for not taking a stance like the Greeks&Spanish with their protests&riots.
and that other countries looked to I reland on how we deal with our current problems, there must be something in the water in the dail&senead:rolleyes: these f**kers are living on a different planet ala calley etc:mad:

Ricardo G

inforfun wrote: »

Nowhere it says that those 120.000 are all Irish.
Could be any nationality.

Did i suggest they were all Irish? I was talking about ONE of my friends.

Zambia

Every time I hear these figures in the Irish press I chuckle a bit.

Emigration is not just the process of getting on a boat anymore. The reports always leave out where these people are going.

Oz/Nz/Canada is a lengthy migration process 12 months if you have the skills. The states is hard to get into at all. Maybe the report should read 120,000 intend to travel to the UK.

donkey balls

Zambia232 wrote: »

Every time I hear these figures in the Irish press I chuckle a bit.

Emigration is not just the process of getting on a boat anymore. The reports always leave out where these people are going.

Oz/Nz/Canada is a lengthy migration process 12 months if you have the skills. The states is hard to get into at all. Maybe the report should read 120,000 intend to travel to the UK.

i got an e-mail from a company in Canada asking me was i still interested in working them,also have another interveiw some time in august for another company in Canada.
they reckon they can have your work permit within a couple of weeks only for i have a mortcage i would be gone.

yoshytoshy

yoshytoshy wrote: »

It's terrible whats happening in the construction industry at the moment.
Unemployed people are doing two day courses and then going out to work for themselves.

Theres going to be all sorts going on in the next couple of years ,things will get worse.

The government are joining in on this fiasco and paying training companies. Probably hoping to mask the actual unemployment figures further.

RoverJames wrote: »

Is there work there ? There were plenty of cowboys out there anyway in the boom, nothing new there.

yoshytoshy wrote: »

Ah yes ,sure lets vote for fianna fail again ,sure there all as bad as each other:rolleyes:

wtf is your problem, I said f all about Fianna Fail, I simply queried the post about folks doing two day courses and then becoming self employed in the building game, sounded like utter horse sh1t to me. :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

Zambia

donkey balls wrote: »

i got an e-mail from a company in Canada asking me was i still interested in working them,also have another interveiw some time in august for another company in Canada.
they reckon they can have your work permit within a couple of weeks only for i have a mortcage i would be gone.

Yes but that is you on contract to them, in essence once the contract is up you return. It could be argued you have not migrated your just working away from home.

It will still count in the figures but what I really mean is people up sticks and leaving in search of better things.

But thanks for highlighting this.

donkey balls

Zambia232 wrote: »

Yes but that is you on contract to them, in essence once the contract is up you return. It could be argued you have not migrated your just working away from home.

It will still count in the figures but what I really mean is people up sticks and leaving in search of better things.

But thanks for highlighting this.

nope once your there over six months you can apply for residency via the PNP scheme.

Pittens

I dont think this is the return of long term emigration: rather Ireland will, as long as it is an open country and as it is a small country, be subject to emigration in recessions and immigration in booms.

But where are people going? Very few (net) jobs are being created anywhere. Number of Irish accents not noticeably increasing anywhere.

kippy

Pittens wrote: »

I dont think this is the return of long term emigration: rather Ireland will, as long as it is an open country and as it is a small country, be subject to emigration in recessions and immigration in booms.

But where are people going? Very few (net) jobs are being created anywhere. Number of Irish accents not noticeably increasing anywhere.

Canada, Oz/NZ (on a temporary basis anyway) and the old reliabe, the UK is still surprisingly good for work.

digme

kippy wrote: »

And what happens, nothing, we all continue to get on with it. No riots in the street (as you would expect).
What does that tell us? Do we really care enough?

maybe stop your daily trance sessions in front of the tv and talk to people.
the tv has us all fcked........

heyjude

"The ESRI advocates shifting available resources away from spending on infrastructure towards aiding the unemployed to retrain and find new jobs."

Retraining for what new jobs, I thought the reason unemployment was 430,000+ was because there were no/very few jobs available, rather than a shortage of qualified workers to fill them.

Surely more attention should be given to assisting start up companies and helping rather than hindering, the efforts of existing companies to improve competitiveness and retain employment.

dublinlawless

I think its stupid how some people are referring to this generation dont know what it was like in the 80s etc. What about people under the age if 20 in this country? Im 17 and really feel people around my age are gonna get the worst effects of the recession. Yeah we probably had more toys as kids than the 80s generation but at least they had easy money ahead of them. How are people my age supposed to get jobs, even part time without ever been able to get experience? Nearly everyone I know my age is looking for a job and has been for the last 2 years. Im leaving school now and more people than ever done the CAO, how is that easier compared to the 80s etc? I know people are gonna say its only 1500 to go college now but were being told in school if we dont go college we have no hope of a job so 3rd level has become a devalued currency. So less of this ''we had it harder i the 80s'' crap, theres more unemployed now than there was then and people of my age will be the ones emigrating too, only we cant go to the US etc easily anymore. All I can say is i hope death hurries up and takes Lenihan. .... I really need that rant lol

ardmacha

So less of this ''we had it harder i the 80s'' crap,

It wasn't great in the 80's, but the music was better.

Tristram

Ricardo G wrote: »

Shame, as i often wonder how many of these imigrants are going to return to Ireland, mate of mine went to Oz last year, met a young lady and now have a baby boy so he is now settled there. Happy for him but no prospect of work here for the foreseeable future for him !

Mate of mine in China in a similar situation, new family and no intention of returning home any time soon. Likewise another friend in Korea. I love it here in Japan and don't plan on going home for a good while but I'm pretty sure I will return at some stage.

kippy

Tristram wrote: »

Mate of mine in China in a similar situation, new family and no intention of returning home any time soon. Likewise another friend in Korea. I love it here in Japan and don't plan on going home for a good while but I'm pretty sure I will return at some stage.

Thats a good thing surely?

dublinlawless

ardmacha wrote: »

It wasn't great in the 80's, but the music was better.

Id agree 110%

eh2010

I heard today that 200,000 may leave by 2015. Does any one know what proportion of these will be Irish and what proportion will be immigrants returning home?

SeaFields

And Cowen wants us to be optimistic about all of this.....

cognac123

Yes there was mass unemployment here in Ireland in the 1980's,but at least there was the safety valve of emigration to other countries like
the USA,England and Australia or to a lesser extent mainland Europe.

Now mass unemployment has returned to Ireland,but unlike the 1980's
there is not the safety valve of emigration as there was previously.
The pickings abroad are not as good as there were in the 1980's.

There is mass unemployment in the USA,England,Mainland Europe,etc.
The grass is not greener on the other side as it once was.I think that
any would be emigrant would be better off to stay here in Ireland and
tough it out until the recovery returns to Ireland.

Zambia

cognac123 wrote: »

Yes there was mass unemployment here in Ireland in the 1980's,but at least there was the safety valve of emigration to other countries like
the USA,England and Australia or to a lesser extent mainland Europe.

Now mass unemployment has returned to Ireland,but unlike the 1980's
there is not the safety valve of emigration as there was previously.
The pickings abroad are not as good as there were in the 1980's.

There is mass unemployment in the USA,England,Mainland Europe,etc.
The grass is not greener on the other side as it once was.I think that
any would be emigrant would be better off to stay here in Ireland and
tough it out until the recovery returns to Ireland.

I would agree the papers seem to like this 200,000 to emigrate story but they are very slow to hazard a guess to where all these people are going??

In fact they dont try at all

dan_d

That's probably because they're not going to any one place in particular. At this stage, from listening to various people, they're just going away. Out. To wherever the hell will offer them an alternative life to here. I've friends in Canada since 2008, one in the UK for the last 6 months, with his OH due to join him there soon, 3 on the West Coast of the States, and 2 in East Asia.
We're all members of this infamous "80's" generation, who apparently had it all so good....except we didn't really.I graduated in '05, and it's been good for 3 years - well, let me say maybe 1 or 2, as it became evident pretty quick that things were in a tailspin, and it couldn't last forever. But we're the same generation that's going to pay for it...we've more working years ahead of us than our parents or those who graduated in the early-mid 90s.

Anyway, no matter. When you ask why we're not on the streets, I actually think there's a simple answer to that. People just don't want to hear it. They don't want to hear about the number unemployed, the state of the country's deficit and what we're going to have to do. And they DEFINITELY don't want to hear about it if it's going to affect them in any way, shape or form. If I decided to go into politics tomorrow, and went door to door saying "I'm young, I'm female, I've a new attitude, I've ideas to get us out of this...but we will have to cut the dole, cut benefits, and cut a couple more percent off wages.."..doors would be slammed in my face. Not in my backyard.We're great at that attitude.

In all seriousness, it's something I've been thinking about for a number of months now...why we aren't on the streets. That's the only conclusion I can come to, after working through a number of conclusions!

As for the emigration, it's actually one thing that makes Irish people stand out from the rest of the world. I'm not sure if it's in a good or bad way, but it does. We are very very willing to travel. I remember working with an Italian 2 years ago...he was 30, and had never left Sicily, until he went to Ireland for a brief visit (he was with us for 6 weeks).He was truly amazed at the amount of time Irish people spent abroad, and how we had been to so many countries. Nobody he knew from his hometown or his college did that.And this was quite a young man, with good qualifications from a normal Italian family.

What truly amazes me about this whole situation that we're in is that the writing has been on the wall about job loss and emigration for the last - what - 16 months or so? And only now are the calls to do something about it becoming strong and in any way meaningful. Why has it taken this long?

djpbarry

dan_d wrote: »

In all seriousness, it's something I've been thinking about for a number of months now...why we aren't on the streets.

I don't know about you, but I'm far too busy looking for a job and I'm not sure what being "on the streets" would accomplish.

I am studying in the UK at the moment. Am I considered an emigrant?

Also, if I move away from Ireland after I finish my degree. It won't be because I can't get a job. It will be wage factors.

Heroditas

dublinlawless wrote: »

Yeah we probably had more toys as kids than the 80s generation but at least they had easy money ahead of them.

In the 80s there was no bright light in the distance, so to say that there was easy money ahead of people is a ridiculous supposition.
People were not to know that the 90s would bring a level of prosperity previously unseen in this country. There was absolutely no hope back then

fontanalis

Heroditas wrote: »

In the 80s there was no bright light in the distance, so to say that there was easy money ahead of people is a ridiculous supposition.
People were not to know that the 90s would bring a level of prosperity previously unseen in this country. There was absolutely no hope back then

But there also wasn't the same level of debt in the 80's. There weren't many people who gambled their future on an overpriced house they thought would make them profit but instead became a black hole for money.

daithicarr

I keep reading about this 80's generation who had it so good, I was born in 1980 as were most my friends or there abouts, we grew up during the 80's when things were fairly crap, and our careers would have just begun in the last few years after finishing university etc, and now many are unemployed and worse have massive debts on houses they bought only recently, i fail to see how we had it so good. we had maybe 5 years where things looked good and then it became apparent we were headed for a hard crash.

There are still plenty of places to go around the world to look for work, from china to japan from canada to mexico , anywhere really people i know are going in search of work, while some will return most will probably meet some one get a good career or find some other reason to settle down. Ireland will be loosing a lot of its brightest and youngest work force, its hardly a good thing for the economy.

Fianna fail have always been happy with emigration, it is a safety valve which gets rid of the most discontent and their for reduces the call for change. its a tragedy for our country that those who leave are often amongst our most able, after al it takes a bit of initiative to get up and go and make something of yourself away from the safety net of family and home.

As the wests population continues to get old we are exporting our best resource, our educated young. its very sad to see there is no real effort being made to keep them.

dan_d

djpbarry wrote: »

I don't know about you, but I'm far too busy looking for a job and I'm not sure what being "on the streets" would accomplish.

Actually I'm in the same position.
Doesn't make me any less angry about the situation, however.

Zambia

Emmigration in the 70's may have been a safety valve. In the 00's and 10's its a decline in your populations best trained people as no-one is in the market for pure labour anymore.

@Dan_d the people you mentioned I assumed they are all well skilled?

dan_d

Yes Zambia232.Mainly qualified engineers of varying disciplines actually - one of the supposed cornerstones of our supposed "smart economy".

The worst part is that several of them would love to come home....but they can't, because there's no jobs for them here. They are are all in their mid to late 20's. It's not a good situation to be stuck in. And from my point of view - I've lost a lot of my friends to emigration.Which is just as bad, although I'll probably be joining them soon.

As for daithicarr, that's exactly my point..I'm 27 and feel the exact same way as you.

djpbarry

Zambia232 wrote: »

I would agree the papers seem to like this 200,000 to emigrate story but they are very slow to hazard a guess to where all these people are going??

Anywhere but here? Ireland currently has one of the highest rates of unemployment in the EU. Things might not be rosy in the UK (for example), but their unemployment rate (~8%) is significantly lower than ours, making Britain a far more attractive place to be compared to here at the moment. I myself am currently on the look-out for a new job and I'm coming across far more opportunities in the UK than I am in Ireland.

Having said that, I suppose it depends on one’s area of expertise. There seems to be quite a few opportunities in IT/software development in Ireland at the moment, despite the high level of unemployment.

Zambia

Well with both Political parties in Oz pionting at immigration reduction and the US being chockers. The UK is really the safety valve, the rest of europe if you have the language skills.

Still if anyone sees a news article even hazarding a guess as to where all these young skilled people are going let me know.