daft - "no bottom in sight", bigger fall last quarter

ei.sdraob

http://www.daft.ie/report/Daft-House-Price-Report-Q2-2010.pdf

we had a few threads recently along the "recession over, must buy" lines

please read the above report first

waffleman

Thanks for that - I would assume the average selling prices would be lower again - maybe 10-15%

seamus

That people are still asking in excess of €500k for 4 bed homes in South City & County Dublin would seem to confirm that there's still a lot of people overvaluing their homes.

Repayments on a mortgage of €460k over 30 years would need a salary of €130k at the very minimum to maintain.

Wibbler

seamus wrote: »

That people are still asking in excess of €500k for 4 bed homes in South City & County Dublin would seem to confirm that there's still a lot of people overvaluing their homes.

Repayments on a mortgage of €460k over 30 years would need a salary of €130k at the very minimum to maintain.

Or 2 salaries at €65 each. Still within the reach of some professional couples.

super_furry

Wibbler wrote: »

Or 2 salaries at €65 each. Still within the reach of some professional couples.

But still putting a massive financial strain on themselves with very little, if any, room to maneuver should circumstances change. A child or two coming along or one of them losing their job and their in massive trouble.

The Irish housing market is still seriously over-priced and it's going to be a death of 1000 cuts over the next decade or so.

seamus

Wibbler wrote: »

Or 2 salaries at €65 each. Still within the reach of some professional couples.

They're big salaries though, few and far between, and there are a *lot* of 4-bed houses in South Dublin. As mentioned, a change in circumstances such as reduced hours, children, and so forth would devastate their ability to repay. The pool of people realistically able to afford such a mortgage has reduced significantly in the last 3 years.

(Though the word "realistically" is key there - how big was that pool in reality and how many were winging it?)

ntlbell

Wibbler wrote: »

Or 2 salaries at €65 each. Still within the reach of some professional couples.

Assuming said couple doesn't plan on having any kids

ZYX

Wibbler wrote: »

Or 2 salaries at €65 each. Still within the reach of some professional couples.

2 salaries of €58000 is the same as one salary of €130,000 assuming a married couple in both cases.
It would give a takehome pay of €6665 a month.
A 5 year fixed rate mortgage would cost €2289 a month leaving €4376 a month left over.

ei.sdraob

waffleman wrote: »

Thanks for that - I would assume the average selling prices would be lower again - maybe 10-15%

yes when I last compared asking prices to the last IAVI report based on selling prices (not that they are a "reliable" source) few month ago, there was up to 20% difference :eek:

seamus

Interestingly, inflow and outflow have been pretty harmonious for the last 18 months, indicating that it's likely that there are very few new listings coming online.

This would seem to suggest that the primary problem is that of the excess number of properties not being shifted; which would corollate with the inability of most people to obtain a mortgage.

PopUp

ntlbell wrote: »

Assuming said couple doesn't plan on having any kids

Yep. Which is unlikely given that said hypothetical couple is looking for a 4-bed house.

Danbo!

I've been watching daft for quite some time now watching prices fall, but due to the industry im in, no hope of getting a mortgage. Its just a matter of waiting I guess, which I've no problem doing. I've seen far too many people I know enter into mortgages with zero research of the market.

I've seen some houses and thought, wow, thats a pretty good price, but Im comparing it to mid-2007 prices and when I think about it logically, they're still quite high.

How can estate agents deny the statistics. Still so many properties looking for crazy money.

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=399259

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=526910

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=426257

I think we need a 'dreamer of the year' thread similar to motors.

seamus

To be fair to those properties Stee, the lock house seems to be a five-apartment development being sold in its entirety for €1m. So really a long-term investor type of place.

The one on the Ballycullen Road is a 0.75 acre site, but considering that you only get a piddly little cottage on it and your neighbours are unlikely to let you build anything larger on it, it's effectively a cottage an on big piece of useless land.

Danbo!

seamus wrote: »

To be fair to those properties Stee, the lock house seems to be a five-apartment development being sold in its entirety for €1m. So really a long-term investor type of place.

The one on the Ballycullen Road is a 0.75 acre site, but considering that you only get a piddly little cottage on it and your neighbours are unlikely to let you build anything larger on it, it's effectively a cottage an on big piece of useless land.

Yep see that now about the lock house, "the 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom" in the description threw me off.

Even for a 0.75 acre site though I think 900,000 is crazy money, the interior is in a need of modernisation and as you say planning for anything decent is unlikely and would just add to the 900,000. With that sort of money you could do a lot better.

Treehouse72

seamus wrote: »

Interestingly, inflow and outflow have been pretty harmonious for the last 18 months, indicating that it's likely that there are very few new listings coming online.

In general I think transactions are indeed very low, but there doesn't seem to be a slowdown in properties being put up for sale:



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ZYX

Treehouse72 wrote: »

In general I think transactions are indeed very low, but there doesn't seem to be a slowdown in properties being put up for sale:



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Why does your graph differ to the one earlier from DAFT? DAFT say 60,000 properties for sale

Treehouse72

ZYX wrote: »

Why does your graph differ to the one earlier from DAFT? DAFT say 60,000 properties for sale

a. It's not "my" graph, it is from Daftwatch here:
http://daftwatch.thepropertypin.com/

b. I don't know the methodology they use, but Daftwatch is generally considered to be accurate and/or trustworthy with respect to tracking Daft listings. I will try to find out why there is a disparity between the two figures.

c. One way or the other, the absolute number is not so much the point as is the trend, which is upwards.

d. Many Daft listings are for multiple unit developments. This will increase the headline number, whether that be 90k or 60k

ZYX

Treehouse72 wrote: »

c. One way or the other, the absolute number is not so much the point as is the trend, which is upwards.

But the Daft figure has levelled off. Your figures have not and are 50% higher

Treehouse72

ZYX wrote: »

But the Daft figure has levelled off. Your figures have not and are 50% higher

You mean the figure for number of properties for sale?

As for the "50% higher", as I say the absolute number doesn't matter in the context of what we're talking about. It could be 5k, 50k or 500k...what matters is where it's at vis a vis last year.

But as I mentioned, I will try to find an explanation for the disparity in the numbers.

ei.sdraob

could it be that daft-watch is also counting land for sale

i think i would trust the actual site more with their own data than a third party

hawkwing20101

Treehouse72 wrote: »

In general I think transactions are indeed very low, but there doesn't seem to be a slowdown in properties being put up for sale:



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Seems to be a different situation in Dublin.

hawkwing20101

hawkwing20101 wrote: »

Seems to be a different situation in Dublin.

Can someone explain how there are circa 95,000 properties for sale in the country but only about 6,000 of them are in Dublin?

ZYX

Treehouse72 wrote: »

You mean the figure for number of properties for sale?

As for the "50% higher", as I say the absolute number doesn't matter in the context of what we're talking about. It could be 5k, 50k or 500k...what matters is where it's at vis a vis last year.

But as I mentioned, I will try to find an explanation for the disparity in the numbers.

The figures you are using include all properties including sites in the whole of Ireland North and South.

Daft's figures are for Rep of Ireland only, and show that total number of properties has remained pretty steady for last 2 years.

ei.sdraob

lively debate on topic here > http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2010/07/13/daft-house-price-report-2010q2/

hawkwing20101

hawkwing20101 wrote: »

Can someone explain how there are circa 95,000 properties for sale in the country but only about 6,000 of them are in Dublin?

There are 62,574 properties for sale in Republic on Daft excluding sites. Of these, 5,695 are in Dublin or about 9%. This seems a small percentage considering that households in Dublin make up about 28% of the households in the republic.

http://www.cso.ie/statistics/numprivhseholds.htm

ei.sdraob

hawkwing20101 wrote: »

There are 62,574 properties for sale in Republic on Daft excluding sites. Of these, 5,695 are in Dublin or about 9%. This seems a small percentage considering that households in Dublin make up about 28% of the households in the republic.

http://www.cso.ie/statistics/numprivhseholds.htm

maybe recession is bringing more people to dublin, where there is better prospect of employment

i suspect looking at rental figures for the country vs dublin would paint a different picture

ZYX

hawkwing20101 wrote: »

There are 62,574 properties for sale in Republic on Daft excluding sites. Of these, 5,695 are in Dublin or about 9%. This seems a small percentage considering that households in Dublin make up about 28% of the households in the republic.

http://www.cso.ie/statistics/numprivhseholds.htm

It's because property sells much faster in Dublin than elsewhere. Sells in 5 months in Dublin compared to 8 months in Leinster, 10 months in Munster and 12 months in Connaght/Ulster.